Eagling’s back and my word has he put a lot of work into this week’s update. You’d want to be part of this league just to get a weekly round up of what happened and what’s going to happen. Sterling stuff, mate! Read to the bottom even if you’re not in the league for his thoughts on player trading.
Round 3 Review
It was another weekend of carnage as players went down or withdrew. I personally was very pleased with my team, just falling short in my main league – LoEC2, when I expected to be walloped by around 300 points.
|Home Team||Home Score||Away Score||Away Team||Margin||Prediction||Culmative Predictions|
|teamcustard||2218||2158||Small Victories||60||A||0 from 1|
|Bring Back Ratts||2095||2121||2 Boyds, 1 Cup||26||A||1 from 2|
|Jetz||2191||2008||Sean’s Mob||183||H||2 from 3|
|Mack Attack||2016||2204||RELIEABLES||188||A||3 from 4|
|500Miles||1892||2124||LI’L SEBASTIAN||232||H||3 from 5|
|Tankers||2003||2073||The Brown Shorts||70||H||3 from 6|
|wobblesbegone||2071||2059||Holyhead Harpies||12||H||4 from 7|
|Armchair Sportsman||2006||2170||MaxPowerExperience||164||A||5 from 8|
|The Convict||1850||2192||Demons of Darch||342||H||5 from 9|
|Total:||11 from 18|
The Round 4 Preview
teamcustard (14) v Bring Back Ratts (11)
PODS: Oxley, Johnson, Kelly, Beams, Newton, Neale, Kennedy, Gibbs, Naitanui, Lamb, McGrath v Simpson, Goddard, MacMillan, Fyfe, Pendlebury, Anderson, Sloane, Cockatoo, Minson, Bellchambers, Hogan
The home side has a lot of good players; but the away side seems more reliable. I’m going for a win to the away side. [Good picking, Eagling – Motts]
Jetz (2) v Small Victories (10)
PODS: Newnes, Lumumba, Hodge, Wells, Goldstein, Cox, Lonie, Bontempelli v Shaw, Gibson, Ibbotson, Newton, van Berlo, Read, Bellchambers, Franklin
I’m going to gamble on Newnes coming good and pushing Jetz over the line.
Mack Attack (16) v 2 Boyds, 1 Cup (1)
PODS: Lumumba, Goodes, Gibson, Newton, Wines, Kennedy, Boak, Naitanui, Swan, Lamb, Goddard v Shaw, Hibberd, Docherty, Pendlebury, Anderson, Sloane, Rich, Goldstein, Bontempelli, Gray, McGrath
he away side to canter to victory.
500Miles (17) v Sean’s Mob (15)
PODS: Lumumba, Goodes, Shaw, Wines, van Berlo, Lewis, Kennedy, Cockatoo, Rich, Gray, McGrath, Saad v Brown, Hibberd, Murphy, Miller, Pendlebury, Beams, Newton, Sheed, Parker, Swan, Hogan, Riewoldt
This is shaping up to be a really close match. However, the injuries to Wines and McGrath; the low form of Goodes; and the ANZAC day record of Dane Swan pushes the away side over the line here.
Tankers (12) v RELIEABLES (7)
PODS: Brown, Gibson, Murphy, Wines, van Berlo, Swallow, Naitanui, Lamb, Franklin v Shaw, Goddard, Langdon, Neale, Lambert, Steven, Jacobs, Zorko, Lycett
Away side to win in a close match.
wobblesbegone (4) v LI’L SEBASTIAN (5)
PODS: Brown, Kelly, Kolodjashnij, Sheppard, Pendlebury, Selwood, van Berlo, Griffen, Sloane, O’Brien, Bontempelli, Lamb v Lumumba, Goodes, Shaw, Hibberd, Beams, Anderson, Dangerfield, Watson, McKenzie, Read, Goldstein, Bartel
The home side to get over the line here.
Armchair Sportsman (18) v The Brown Shorts (3)
PODS: Goodes, Shaw, Pearce, Newton, Dangerfield, Lewis, Goldstein, Cox, Lamb, Bartel v Oxley, Johnson, Docherty, Beams, Wines, Anderson, Read, Naitanui, Hogan
I can only see one winner here – the away side. Far too much quality here; with the absence of Wines being offset by the absence of Bartel.
The Convict (13) v Holyhead Harpies (9)
PODS: Lumumba, Gibson, Johnson, Goddard, Yarran, Newton, Griffen, Neale, Lewis, Jong, Steele, Maric, Bellchambers, Bontempelli, Bartel, Goddard, Walker v Newnes, Hibberd, Goodes, Birchall, Higgins, Cripps, Heeney, Pendlebury, van Berlo, Lambert, Nelson, Goldstein, Naitanui, Swan, Lamb, Gray, McGrath
With an enormous 17 points of difference; the margin of error is humongous. However, I think that the away side can win by a nose.
Demons of Darch (6) v MaxPowerExperience (8)
PODS: Lumumba, Brown, Simpson, Beams, van Berlo, Sloane, Sheed, Bontempelli, Lamb, Bennell v Goodes, Johnson, Selwood, Griffen, Anderson, Dangerfield, Salem, McGrath, Goddard
Another extremely close match. I predict a home win by a single digit margin.
A few thoughts…
Motts wishes for me to add in a few tidbits every week; because the article has quite a niche demographic; and to have something to read for people who aren’t interested in the LoEC. Of course, I have to balance this with the fact that I am simple layman when compared with the experts in the field around here.
I’m going to present some of the conundrums I have with my team. I’ve been hit with 4 LTI’s this week alone, in the form of Ollie Wines, Kane Lambert, Jaden McGrath and Tom Lamb. Fortunately, 3 of the 4 are bench rookies, and I have the funds to do two instant upgrades.
When I decide to upgrade; MJ’s Fallen Premiums Articles are the first place I go to; right now though, none of the FP’s are screaming out to be picked; most have high Break-Evens and will probably drop in price. Of course, there is also the option of jumping on an inform player before they rocket up in price; in which case I’d be gambling on the player maintaining his current form.
The decision to bring in a player is weighing up whether if A: You think they will average enough FROM the moment you bring them in to the end of the season to be a worthwhile keeper pick; and B: are they nearly at or at the bottom of their price curve?
EXHIBIT A: Brodie Smith $524, 900
I had Brodie Smith last year, and considered him in the preseason; before deciding against picking him. Right now, it’s looking like a mistake; and I believe that he will be a Top 6 defender this year, probably number 1. However, at $520k, he’s probably in the middle of his price range. I reckon he will fluctuate between $500k and $550k, so I might be able to pick him for a little bit less at some point in the future. Of course, I have to offset the money I’m saving with the points I’m losing not having the Number 1 defender in the competition.
EXHIBIT B: Rory Sloane $640, 500
Sloane is so very consistent. He’s the number 1 scorer in Supercoach this year, and he hasn’t dropped below 100 points since round 18 last year; and he’s only dropped below 100 3 times since Round 18, 2013. He seems to be a Pendlebury like pick; extremely consistent that provides captain worthy scores. However, I can’t see him continuing to score 130’s and 140’s. I’m sure he’ll regress to 110’s and 120’s – great scores, but can I save money by going to Selwood ($30k), Kennedy/Beams ($50k), Priddis ($80k) or Murphy/Johnson/Jones ($100k). The question is whether you should spend the extra money for the consistency or save and get someone like Selwood in. More often than not, you spend extra money for the form; which you do not benefit from. I think Sloane is a very good pick; however, I reckon Selwood is a slightly better option – but boy am I tempted by Sloane.
Of course, I might be biased due to Kieran Jack last year. He was averaging around 110, and he’d scored something like 110+ in every game for 8 weeks. He was brilliantly consistent, and as soon as I brought him in, he dropped off; so maybe I’m seeing parallels with Sloane here.
EXHIBIT C: Marcus Bontempelli $422, 300
Bontempelli missed last week’s game, which gives us another consider him for our teams. The positives are plain to see – massive scores in the first two weeks; he’s a hard tackling player who is running through the midfield; his game style is probably less susceptible to tagging; and all this for a low price. No wonder so many are jumping on him.
Of course, there are negatives. Bontempelli hasn’t been tested against the good teams yet. He is a second year player; and he’s already missed a game; He’ll might get burned out; he’ll probably drop in scoring – whether he’ll drop to average a worthwhile 95, or a middle of the road 85 is the question. He has got massive potential, but he is a big risk. Of course, if you’re going to get him in; now is probably going to be the best time to do so. Is he a Robbie Gray/David Swallow type from last year, or a Dayne Zorko, who started like a house on fire before being extinguished, shipped off the the nearest port and dropped into the ocean; before rising again and falling back into the depths like a breaching whale.
I reckon Bontempelli should fall somewhere in the middle. He won’t be the must have that Swallow/Gray were, and he won’t bounce around like a hyperactive kangaroo on a spring-loaded trampoline like Zorko did. You could probably pick a few better options than Bontempelli; but the risk of picking a worse option is probably a big one. I’m probably going to get onto him; but don’t expect 110+ average. 95-100 is something we should be happy with.
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