(Written & Created By Adam)
Happy times ahead for The Magician?
Premium history (Avg>100):
2012: 100 from 16
2015: 100.64 from 22
2016: 109 from 20
2017: 110.76 from 21
Avg at Gabba: 105.14 from 42 (16/42 below 100, 9/42 120+)
2012: 89.78 from 9
2015: 106.27 from 11
2016: 111.45 from 11
2017: 110.27 from 11
Interstate: 105.88 from 34 (13/34 below 100, 10/34 120+)
2012: 113.14 from 7
2015: 94.9 from 10
2016: 107.5 from 8
2017: 111 from 9
Gabba Wins: 106.36 from 14 (6/14 below 100, 3/14 120+)
2012: 96.17 from 6
2015: 98.33 from 3
2016: 134 from 2
2017: 116.33 from 3
Gabba Losses: 104.54 from 28 (10/28 below 100, 6/28 120+)
2012: 77 from 3
2015: 109.25 from 8
2016: 111.56 from 9
2017: 108 from 8
Wins: 108.2 from 20 (7/20 below 100, 4/20 120+)
2012: 107.25 from 8
2015: 85.75 from 4
2016: 127 from 3
2017: 116.4 from 5
Losses: 104.34 from 59 (24/59 below 100, 15/59 120+)
2012: 92.7 from 8
2015: 103.94 from 18
2016: 105.82 from 17
2017: 109 from 16
Pre Bye: 99.97 from 36
2012: 75.25 from 4
2015: 84.2 from 10
2016: 112.83 from 12
2017: 110.2 from 10
Post Bye: 109.79 from 43
2012: 108.25 from 12
2015: 114.33 from 12
2016: 103.25 from 8
2017: 111.27 from 11
2018 SC: 95.8 from 22
Gabba Avg: 106.55 from 11 (4/11 below 100, 4/11 120+)
Gabba Wins Avg: 125 from 2 (2/2 120+)
Gabba Losses Avg: 102.44 from 9 (4/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)
Wins Avg: 105.2 from 5 (2/5 120+)
Losses Avg: 93.06 from 17 (3/17 120+)
Pre Bye Avg: 92.67 from 12 (3/12 120+)
Post Bye Avg: 99.6 from 10 (6/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
2018 Stat Averages:
Disposals: 20.77
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 117.45 from 11 (low of 90 and a high of 164, 3/11 below 100, 5/11 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 21: 74.18 from 11 (low of 32 and a high of 110, 9/11 below 100)
Kicks: 13.73
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 14: 117.82 from 11 (low of 90 and a high of 164, 3/11 below 100, 5/11 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 14: 73.82 from 11 (low of 32 and a high of 106, 9/11 below 100)
Handballs: 7.05
SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 8: 109.75 from 8 (low of 66 and a high of 164, 3/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)
SC Avg when handballs below 8: 87.86 from 14 (low of 32 and a high of 129, 9/14 below 100, 2/14 120+)
Marks: 2.45
SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 3: 108.1 from 10 (low of 37 and a high of 164, 3/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)
SC Avg when marks below 3: 85.58 from 12 (low of 32 and a high of 121, 9/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)
Contested Possessions: 9.77
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 10: 110.18 from 11 (low of80 and a high of 164, 4/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 10: 81.45 from 11 (low of 32 and a high of 129, 8/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
Tackles: 7.23
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 8: 102.45 from 11 (low of 37 and a high of 164, 5/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 8: 89.18 from 11 (low of 32 and a high of 129, 7/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
Clangers: 4.18
SC Avg when clangers below 5: 97 from 15 (low of 46 and a high of 129, 7/15 below 100, 3/15 120+)
SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 5: 93.29 from 7 (low of 32 and a high of 164, 5/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)
Time on Ground%: 83.82%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 84%: 95.58 from 12 (low of 32 and a high of 164, 7/12 below 100 2/12 120+)
SC Avg when time on ground below 84%: 96.1 from 10 (low of 37 and a high of 142, 5/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)
Premium career stat averages:
Disposals:
2012: 19.63
2015: 22.95
2016: 23.55
2017: 25.05
Kicks:
2012: 10.5
2015: 13.64
2016: 15
2017: 16.24
Handballs:
2012: 9.13
2015: 9.32
2016: 8.55
2017: 8.81
Marks:
2012: 4.63
2015: 4.45
2016: 4.15
2017: 3.76
Contested Possessions:
2012: 8.44
2015: 9.41
2016: 8.85
2017: 10.43
Tackles:
2012: 6.44
2015: 3.86
2016: 6.4
2017: 7
Clangers:
2012: 2.25
2015: 3.23
2016: 2.8
2017: 4.38
Time on Ground %:
2012: 73.88%
2015: 82.45%
2016: 81.65%
2017: 83.90%
Disposal Efficiency%:
2012: 72.6%
2015: 69.7%
2016: 73%
2017: 64.4%
Contested Possession Rate%:
2012: 32.32%
2015: 40.59%
2016: 38.23%
2017: 41.87%
Observations:
3.86 win/loss differential.
9.82 post bye/pre-bye differential.
40+ differential when disposals equal/exceed 21 and when kicks equal/exceed 14.
Zorko struggled in 2018 with a slow start that is likely attributed to increased attention from opposition coaches/taggers and possibly being utilised in more forward rotations to allow the Lions younger midfielders to develop. This is evident by his disposals averaged dropping to 20.77 which was approximately a 4.3 decrement on his 2017 averages in conjunction with several other averages dropping which attributed to Zorko recording an average below 100 for the first time since 2014.
If he can return to his prior form in 2016/17 where he averaged a combined 109.91 from 41 games, then he is severely under-priced but currently there are too many questions regarding his role and the potential impact of L Neale and the progression of the Lions youngsters.
Verdict: Upgrade target
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Great stuff again Adam, thanks. Think I’ll be waiting to see how the MIDfield cards fall at BRL before making any decisions. I think you’re right that Neale’s arrival may force the Magician to go forward even more in 2019 (to further counter the loss of Beams while giving Berry and McCluggage more minutes in there), tho’ Lyons doesn’t mind going forward and hitting the scoreboard too.
Just too many questions for me to consider starting ANY of them right now, incl. LockE Neale! 😉
Was ultra keen on zorko. Even tinkered starting with zorko, crouch, Merritt, Sloane and martin.
But now I’m at the point that if even 2 of them deliver a 70 or worse, they will be gettable for 450ish. So now wait and see in season and jump on which ever one.
I’d take any of them at m9 worst case.
Still might start Sloane though.
Im a big fan of zorko because his ceiling is enormous. Has potential to score massively occasionally even though he might throw in the odd 50.
What I find surprising that Adam hasnt captured here, is Zorko averaged 107 last year after round 6. He was truly awful for the first 6 rounds with three sub-50 scores and then he just went bang back to normal with a 164 against the pies and never looked back.
Rich wasn’t playing, he almost always gets the tag.