Elite Numbers ’19 – Josh Kelly (GWS)

Written by Schwarzwalder on March 1 2019

(Written & Created By Adam)

Adam’s fourth Lock for the pre-season, Josh Kelly……..

 

Premium History (Avg>100):

2017: 114.33 from 21

2018: 113.8 from 15

 

Avg VS Opponent:

Adel: 94.67 from 3 (low of 82 and a high of 105, 2/3 below 100)

Bris: 149 from 1

Carl: 151.5 from 2 (low of 98 and a high of 205)

Coll: 127.5 from 2 (low of 108 and a high of 147)

Ess: 137.5 from 2 (low of 99 and a high of 176)

Freo: 106 from 1

Geel: 107 from 2 (low of 106 and a high of 108)

GC: 133 from 2 (low of 120 and a high of 146)

Haw: 115 from 2 (low of 96 and a high of 134)

Melb: 104.5 from 2 (low of 82 and a high of 127)

NM: 110 from 1

Port: 111 from 2 (low of 92 and a high of 130)

Rich: 95.33 from 3 (low of 82 and a high of 103, 1/3 below 100)

StK: 119 from 2 (low of 108 and a high of 130)

Syd: 91.67 from 3 (low of 88 and a high of 96)

WC: 115 from 3 (low of 94 and a high of 144, 1/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

WB: 113.67 from 3 (low of 93 and a high of 132, 1/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

 

Avg at Venue:

SPO: 118.69 from 13 (4/13 below 100, 6/13 120+)

2017: 123.75 from 8 (1/8 below 100, 4/8 120+)

2018: 110.6 from 5 (3/5 below 100, 2/5 120+)

 

UNSW: 102 from 5 (3/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

2017: 104 from 3 (2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

2018: 99 from 2 (1/2 below 100)

 

Interstate: 116.75 from 16 (4/16 below 100, 5/16 120+)

2017: 111.44 from 9 (1/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)

2018: 123.57 from 7 (3/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)

 

SPO Wins: 124.8 from 10 (2/10 below 100, 6/10 120+)

2017: 132.33 from 6 (4/6 120+)

2018: 110.6 from 4 (2/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)

 

SPO Losses: 93.5 from 2 (2/2 below 100)

2017: 88 from 1

2018: 99 from 1

 

Wins: 120.5 from 24 (7/24 below 100, 11/24 120+)

2017: 119.31 from 13 (3/13 below 100, 6/13 120+)

2018: 121.91 from 11 (4/11 below 100, 5/11 120+)

 

Losses: 97.4 from 10 (6/10 below 100)

2017: 101.33 from 6 (2/6 below 100)

2018: 91.5 from 4 (4/4 below 100)

 

Pre Bye: 111.67 from 18 (7/18 below 100, 4/18 120+)

2017: 112.75 from 12 (4/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)

2018: 109.5 from 6 (3/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)

 

Post Bye: 116.56 from 18 (6/18 below 100, 8/18 120+)

2017: 116.44 from 9 (1/9 below 100, 4/9 120+)

2018: 116.67 from 9 (5/9 below 100, 4/9 120+)

 

2018 Stat Averages:

Disposals: 27.6

SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 28: 129.78 from 9 (low of 96 and a high of 205, 3/9 below 100, 5/9 120+)

SC Avg when disposals below 28: 89.83 from 6 (low of 82 and a high of 108, 5/6 below 100)

Kicks: 16.6

SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 17: 135.71 from 7 (low of 91 and a high of 205, 2/7 below 100, 5/7 120+)

SC Avg when kicks below 17: 94.63 from 8 (low of 82 and a high of 116, 6/8 below 100)

Handballs: 11

SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 11: 122.88 from 8 (low of 94 and a high of 205, 4/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)

SC Avg when handballs below 11: 103.43 from 7 (low of 82 and a high of 149, 4/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)

Marks: 3.8

SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 4: 149.2 from 5 (low of 116 and a high of 205, 4/5 120+)

SC Avg when marks below 4: 96.1 from 10 (low of 82 and a high of 130, 8/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)

Contested Possessions: 9.27

SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 10: 128.83 from 6 (low of 96 and a high of 205, 3/6 below 100, 3/6 120+)

SC Avg when contested possessions below 10: 103.78 from 9 (low of 82 and a high of 149, 5/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)

Tackles: 5.4

SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 6: 116.67 from 3 (low of 96 and a high of 146, 1/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

SC Avg when tackles below 6: 113.08 from 12 (low of 82 and a high of 205, 7/12 below 100, 4/12 120+)

Clangers: 2.4

SC Avg when clangers below 3: 115.6 from 10 (low of 82 and a high of 205, 6/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)

SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 3: 110.2 from 5 (low of 82 and a high of 146, 2/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

Time on Ground%: 82.6%

SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 83%: 119.33 from 12 (low of 82 and a high of 205, 5/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)

SC Avg when time on ground below 83%: 91.67 from 3 (low of 82 and a high of 99, 3/3 below 100)

 

Premium career stat averages:

Disposals:

2017: 29.24

2018: 27.6

 

Kicks:

2017: 14

2018: 16.6

 

Handballs:

2017: 15.24

2018: 11

 

Marks:

2017: 3.43

2018: 3.8

 

Contested Possessions:

2017: 11.24

2018: 9.27

 

Tackles:

2017: 6.33

2018: 5.4

 

Clangers:

2017: 2.71

2018: 2.4

 

Time on Ground %:

2017: 84.95%

2018: 82.6%

 

Disposal Efficiency%:

2017: 74.76%

2018: 71.50%

 

Contested Possession Rate%:

2017: 37.70%

2018: 33.07%

 

Observations:

Averages 110+ against 11 teams (Bris, Carl, Coll, Ess, GC, Haw, NM, Port, StK, WC, WB) with 7 both pre and post bye.

Averages 118.69 from 13 matches at SPO with both seasons recording an average of 110+ and 124.8 from 10 in SPO Wins with both seasons exceeding 110+ and 8 there in 2019 with 4 both pre and post bye.

23.1 win/loss differential with both seasons exceeding a 119+ avg in wins.

4.89 post bye/pre-bye differential recording a 116+ avg in both seasons.

35+ avg differential when disposals equal/exceed 28, kicks equal/exceed 17 and marks equal/exceed 4.

 

One of the most consistent players in the competition due to Kelly possessing possibly the most supercoach friendly game style due to amassing a high amount of disposals and contested numbers (tackles, contested possessions) whilst displaying a penchant to kick rather than handball and has only recorded 4 scores under 90 in the past 2 seasons with 3 occurring in 2018. Only managed 15 games in 2018 due to injury and this could be a slight deterrent regarding 2019 selection, but his ceiling and consistency should outweigh the injury risks. Expect an average between 115-125 and a finish as a top 10 midfielder for both/either total points or average

Verdict: Lock

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11 thoughts on “Elite Numbers ’19 – Josh Kelly (GWS)”

  1. Might have to call my team the Kelly Gang at this rate!
    How unoriginal.
    In all seriousness, GWS do have some tough early fixtures (and he tends to get his MONSTER numbers against the poorer sides) which could see him fall quite quickly in price. If he doesn’t tho’, it will take weeks to get him.
    Hmmmm?! Lock?

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  2. Thanks Adam, you have convinced me to take Kelly and not wait to upgrade. Goodbye Zerrett and hello Kelly. Cheers…M

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  3. Fantastic player. But if I can play devil’s advocate here: Nobody’s concerned about the greater risk of him getting tagged now that Shiel is gone?
    He had a great season in 2017, sure. Last year he copped a lot more attention as a result, and only managed to hit the numbers he did by blitzing the lesser sides:
    205 v Carlton
    149 v Brisbane
    146 v Gold Coast
    130 v St Kilda
    Overall, he averaged 128 vs teams that missed the finals, and only an adequate 92 against teams that made it to September. Was tagged by Howe, Hutchings and Harmes last year, and failed to ton up in any of those games.
    Like I said, amazing player but he’s not quite the lock for me that he is for others. I’ll be interested to see how he goes against the Swans today!

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    1. Thanks Chillo. Agree with the above as a major deterrent regarding the selection but his consistency and ability to have an impact up forward as well as his high tackle averages could alleviate some of the concerns surrounding the potential tag.

      My verdict could be a bit biased as he is my favourite player in the competition and he could be suited to an early upgrade target eg Rd6-8 due to their tough start and to see if he receives more attention.

      Also he will not be playing today against the Swans in JLT 1.

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    2. I agree Chillo. That’s what I was alluding to. I think the new rules are gonna suit Cogs more and given GWS’ early fixture will look to pick him up later, as Adam points out.

      Yes it’s a risky move, but at this stage one I’m willing to take

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      1. Good luck in executing the plan and might I recommend starting A Miles as an avenue to J Kelly. Assuming both players have an increment/decrement of 50,000 then it should roughly be a 150,000 differential. I’m utilising the same plan with A Miles but it will likely involve C Oliver or P Cripps replacing him around RD6-RD10.

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    3. Adam – again awesome stuff and love these articles!

      Chillo – yes mate that is exactly what I have been looking at too – very torn on the best options to start with and was looking at either him or Fyfe – with surgery to Fyfe now I’m just not sure with either as a starter! Damn this game! … just goes to show the ‘luck factor’ is key!!

      AllSaints – good comments and extra info as always mate!

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