(Written & Created By Adam)
One of the biggest signings of the off-season, Lachie Neale…………
Premium history (Avg>100):
2015: 104.32 from 22
2016: 112.64 from 22
2017: 109 from 21
2018: 111.86 from 22
Avg VS Opponent:
Adel: 89.4 from 5 (low of 55 and a high of 110, 2/5 below 100)
Bris: 99.5 from 4 (low of 51 and a high of 125, 1/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)
Carl: 125.6 from 5 (low of 97 and a high of 159, 1/5 below 100, 3/5 120+)
Coll: 110.2 from 5 (low of 100 and a high of 140, 1/5 120+)
Ess: 121 from 6 (low of 93 and a high of 147, 2/6 below 100, 3/6 120+)
Geel: 98.6 from 5 (low of 76 and a high of 132, 3/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)
GC: 110.2 from 5 (low of 77 and a high of 156, 2/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)
GWS: 118 from 5 (low of 85 and a high of 154, 1/5 below 100, 2/5 120+)
Haw: 100.5 from 4 (low of 78 and a high of 123, 2/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)
Melb: 120.8 from 5 (low of 78 and a high of 145, 1/5 below 100, 3/5 120+)
NM: 109.33 from 6 (low of 74 and a high of 141, 2/6 below 100, 2/6 120+)
Port: 111.33 from 6 (low of 87 and a high of 149, 3/6 below 100, 2/6 120+)
Rich: 111.6 from 5 (low of 64 and a high of 148, 2/5 below 100, 3/5 120+)
StK: 119 from 4 (low of 117 and a high of 123, 1/4 120+)
Syd: 77.75 from 4 (low of 44 and a high of 112, 2/4 below 100)
WC: 118.13 from 8 (low of 73 and a high of 170, 2/8 below 100, 4/8 120+)
WB: 103.8 from 5 (low of 84 and a high of 119, 1/5 below 100)
Avg at Venue:
Domain Stadium: 112.03 from 35 (11/35 below 100, 11/35 120+)
2015: 107.25 from 12
2016: 113.42 from 12
2017: 115.73 from 11
Optus Stadium: 111.69 from 13 (3/13 below 100, 4/13 120+)
Interstate: 106.41 from 39 (13/39 below 100, 13/39 120+)
2015: 100.8 from 10
2016: 111.7 from 10
2017: 101.6 from 10
2018: 112.11 from 9
Domain Stadium Wins: 120.33 from 18 (4/18 below 100, 8/18 120+)
2015: 112 from 10
2016: 135.33 from 3
2017: 128 from 5
Optus Stadium Wins: 106.14 from 7 (2/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)
Domain Stadium Losses: 103.24 from 17 (7/17 below 100, 3/17 120+)
2015: 83.5 from 2
2016: 106.11 from 9
2017: 105.5 from 6
Optus Stadium Losses: 118.17 from 6 (1/6 below 100, 3/6 120+)
Wins: 113.77 from 37 (10/37 below 100, 14/37 120+)
2015: 108.88 from 17
2016: 114.25 from 4
2017: 124.88 from 8
2018: 112.75 from 8
Losses: 106.28 from 50 (17/50 below 100, 14/50 120+)
2015: 88.8 from 5
2016: 112.28 from 18
2017: 99.23 from 13
2018: 111.36 from 14
Pre Bye: 111.8 from 50 (14/50 below 100, 20/50 120+)
2015: 111.18 from 11
2016: 113.29 from 14
2017: 114.58 from 12
2018: 108.15 from 13
Post Bye: 106.3 from 37 (13/37 below 100, 8/37 120+)
2015: 97.45 from 11
2016: 111.5 from 8
2017: 101.56 from 9
2018: 117.22 from 9
2018 Stat Averages:
Disposals: 30.32
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 31: 124.18 from 11 (low of 99 and a high of 159, 1/11 below 100, 5/11 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 31: 99.55 from 11 (low of 74 and a high of 132, 5/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
Kicks: 11.41
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 12: 116.64 from 14 (low of 77 and a high of 159, 4/14 below 100, 5/14 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 12: 103.5 from 8 (low of 74 and a high of 132, 2/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)
Handballs: 18.91
SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 19: 118.33 from 12 (low of 99 and a high of 151, 1/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)
SC Avg when handballs below 19: 104.1 from 10 (low of 74 and a high of 159, 5/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
Marks: 3.59
SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 4: 114.3 from 10 (low of 77 and a high of 151, 3/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)
SC Avg when marks below 4: 109.83 from 12 (low of 74 and a high of 132, 3/12 below 100, 4/12 120+)
Contested Possessions: 15.05
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 16: 123.1 from 10 (low of 99 and a high of 151, 1/11 below 100, 6/11 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 16: 102.5 from 12 (low of 74 and a high of 159, 5/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
Tackles: 4.23
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 5: 113.63 from 8 (low of 74 and a high of 151, 2/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 5: 110.86 from 14 (low of 77 and a high of 159, 4/14 below 100, 4/14 120+)
Clangers: 3.36
SC Avg when clangers below 4: 116.58 from 12 (low of 77 and a high of 159, 3/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)
SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 4: 106.2 from 10 (low of 74 and a high of 151, 3/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
Time on Ground%: 80.18%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 81%: 114.75 from 12 (low of 74 and a high of 159, 3/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)
SC Avg when time on ground below 81%: 108.4 from 10 (low of 77 and a high of 134, 3/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
Premium career stat averages:
Disposals:
2015: 27.42
2016: 33.5
2017: 27.24
2018: 30.32
Kicks:
2015: 13.33
2016: 13.14
2017: 11.67
2018: 11.41
Handballs:
2015: 14.08
2016: 20.36
2017: 15.57
2018: 18.91
Marks:
2015: 4.75
2016: 4.09
2017: 4.48
2018: 3.59
Contested Possessions:
2015: 11.58
2016: 16.32
2017: 13.05
2018: 15.05
Tackles:
2015: 3.58
2016: 4.59
2017: 4.48
2018: 4.23
Clangers:
2015: 2.04
2016: 3.64
2017: 2.76
2018: 3.36
Time on Ground %:
2015: 76.96%
2016: 81.64%
2017: 77.62%
2018: 80.18%
Disposal Efficiency%:
2015: 75.4%
2016: 73%
2017: 77.9%
2018: 73.5%
Contested Possession Rate%:
2015: 42.25%
2016: 48.71%
2017: 47.90%
2018: 49.63%
Observations:
Averages 110+ against 10 teams (Carl, Coll, Ess, GC, GWS, Melb, Port, Rich, StK, WC) and plays 6 of them pre-bye with 5 in the first 6 rounds.
7.49 win/loss differential with 4 matches pre-bye against 2018 top 8 teams.
5.5 pre-bye/post bye differential with 3/4 seasons exceeding 110+ and 3/4 seasons he has started better pre-bye than post.
20+ differential when disposals equal/exceed 31 and when contested possessions equal/exceed 16.
When he has averaged higher than 80% TOG in a season he finishes with a 110+ average and averages 30+ disposals.
2015: 76.96% TOG, Disposals: 27.42, SC Avg: 104.3 from 22
2016: 81.64% TOG, Disposals: 33.5, SC Avg: 112.6 from 22
2017: 77.62% TOG, Disposals; 27.24, Sc Avg: 109 from 21
2018: 80.18% TOG, Disposals: 30.32, SC Avg: 111.9 from 22
A change of scenery for Neale in 2019 as the Brisbane Lions star acquisition in the off season where he will move from playing second fiddle behind N Fyfe to being the focal point of the midfield at the young and emerging Lions.
Has established himself over the past 3-4 seasons as one of the leading midfield accumulators as well as displaying high levels of consistency and durability illustrated by playing 87 out of a possible 88 matches since 2015 and since 2016 he has averaged 111.2 from 65. Historically he has performed better pre-bye than post bye with 3/4 seasons exceeding 110+ and 3/4 seasons performing better pre-bye than post bye. A slow start by his lofty standards in 2018 could potentially be attributed to an injury hampered preseason if memory serves me correct.
Neale should be able to maintain his current numbers or potentially increase several categories at his new team which means he should hover round the 109-115 range.
Verdict: Strongly consider as M1-M3
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I’m an Essendon member. But lachie is actually my favourite player. Not flashy or anything, just a good honest footballer. The only reasons I’m not starting him is his bye and he’s so consistent his price shouldn’t change to much.
Same. Even if he averages 110, he’ll be under $550k come the byes. Blessed Number was 4892 at Rd14 last year (and from a higher base # too), so should be c. $538k after his bye. Of course, the same principle applies to ALL elites.
Will be starting Cripps, Oliver and Yeo for that reason. There the only three with a hefty price-tag that I believe will improve on last year.
If Lachie was still a Docker I’d probably start him, but the move just casts a large enough shadow on absolute certainty for me to not start him. He may go even better, in which case well done to everyone who does start him, but I just feel there are better options.
Absolute Lock from RD 1. Great review.
Good stuff Adam. I had him in and out of my team since the start of this season. Something tells me that he’ll kill it this year without playing second fiddle to Fyfe. However Last year I started with 5 Freo players dissing the like of Macrae and Oliver and it didnt end well, wasting me 4 trades. My main issue with him is his TOG. For his price I am willing to see how he scores in his new team and who of him, Zorko or McCluggage benefits the most from the changes. He is a gun , he’ll score well but I am having 4 Premos+Miles + Rookies in the middle so he stays on my watchlist with 5 others and has to cement his spot post JLT.
Part of me thinks he could do a Mitchell… but the majority of me thinks he definitely won’t.
Currently in my side at the expense of Oliver at this stage.
Probably the most durable top 10 midfielder candidate. Has never been in my team, and i haven’t personally picked him in any teams so far.
Last year he was #8 for total points, #12 for average. Thats really good!
Reminds me of a better callan ward durable type. Ward #13 total points, yet #23 average points.
Actually why isn’t neale in my team perfect starting player to pick. Highly likely to play the whole season and most likely will be a top 10 overall player.
Great write up, thank you it has me seriously considering
Said it before Adam, you’re a legend with all this stats stuff mate … you should start your own site, ask for donations for people to access!! Legend mate!
Lock-E!
Has scored more points than everyone not named Dangerfield over the past four years. Throw away the key.
Had him last year he was great to own!
Great work Adam. Most relevant stat for mine is his 97 minutes on ground per match versus Beams playing 106 minutes per game and Zorko 103 min.
I can see Lachie spending 5-10% more time on field which equals more points!!
shhhhh, was hoping people wouldn’t notice that!!
Sorry Macca.
Nothing to see here people. Move along…