(Written & Created By Adam)
High praise for Luke Ryan from Adam………
SC 2018: 90.25 from 20
Optus Stadium: 96.42 from 12 (6/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)
Interstate: 81 from 8 (7/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)
Optus Stadium Wins: 109 from 7 (2/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)
Optus Stadium Losses: 78.8 from 5 (4/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)
Wins: 106.38 from 8 (3/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)
Losses: 79.5 from 12 (10/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)
Pre Bye: 97.69 from 13 (7/13 below 100, 3/13 120+)
Post Bye: 76.43 from 7 (6/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)
2018 Stat Averages:
Disposals: 18.1
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 19: 117.5 from 8 (low of 92 and a high of 140, 1/8 below 100, 4/8 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 19: 72.08 from 12 (low of 47 and a high of 93)
Kicks: 13
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 13: 110 from 11 (low of 85 and a high of 140, 4/11 below 100, 4/11 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 13: 66.11 from 9 (low of 47 and a high of 88)
Handballs: 5.1
SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 6: 104.78 from 9 (low of 68 and a high of 140, 4/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)
SC Avg when handballs below 6: 78.36 from 11 (low of 47 and a high of 121, 9/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)
Marks: 6.55
SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 7: 110.22 from 9 (low of 73 and a high of 140, 3/9 below 100, 4/9 120+)
SC Avg when marks below 7: 73.91 from 11 (low of 47 and a high of 114, 10/11 below 100)
Contested Possessions: 5
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 5: 100.8 from 10 (low of 61 and a high of 140, 5/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 5: 79.7 from 10 (low of 47 and a high of 121, 8/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
Tackles: 2.15
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 3: 106.29 from 7 (low of 47 and a high of 140, 2/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 3: 81.62 from 13 (low of 51 and a high of 125, 11/13 below 100, 1/13 120+)
Clangers: 1.8
SC Avg when clangers below 2: 94.25 from 8 (low of 53 and a high of 140, 5/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)
SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 2: 87.58 from 12 (low of 47 and a high of 136, 8/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)
Time on Ground%: 83.6%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 84%: 102.7 from 10 (low of 61 and a high of 140, 5/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)
SC Avg when time on ground below 84%: 77.8 from 10 (low of 47 and a high of 121, 8/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
Disposal Efficiency%: 80.66%
Contested Possession Rate%: 28.01%
Observations:
26.88 win/loss differential.
21.26 pre-bye/post bye differential.
40+ differential when disposals equal/exceed 19 and kicks equal/exceed 13.
Averages 17.32 disposals across his current 31 game career:
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 18: 110.38 from 13
Sc avg when disposals below 18: 67.5 from 18
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 15: 100.35 from 20
SC Avg when disposals below 15: 58.45 from 11
In only his 2nd season Ryan has achieved a 90+ avg and has averaged 85.48 from his 31-game career. That’s largely thanks to his SuperCoach friendly game style, primarily his tendency to use the ball by foot, his elite kicking efficiency and intercept marking ability.
Ryan could be one of the main beneficiaries if there are any changes to the scoring system due to the kick in rule change. He took 40.1% or 107/261 of Fremantle’s kick ins from Rd1 to RD22. As highlighted above Ryan is not dependent on amassing the 25+ disposals which is necessary for most SC defenders to score a 100+ as he only averaged 18 disposals a game in 2018 and 17 across his career which highlights his scoring potential if he can receive more the ball for the Dockers and reduce the amount of games below the 15-17 disposal range.
Only deterrent regarding the selection is FURL and his penchant for changing roles which could explain by his post-bye form when he averaged 20 below his pre-bye average. Ryan managed only 1 game above 15 disposals post-bye which could be attributed to playing more of a lockdown role instead of a rebounding/intercepting role. If the amount of low possession games (below 15) can significantly decrease for Ryan and he manages a 20+ disposal avg or greater than expect him to hover around the 95-102 range.
Verdict: Strongly consider for D1-D3/Upgrade target
Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom
Thanks Adam and while there are some impressive numbers, there are also stats that worry me.
Won’t be starting him, but can see why others might.
Too many questions and concerns = risk. And I don’t want to take risks with starting premos. Mid-pricers maybe, but not premos and he ain’t one of those … yet.
Thanks All Saints. His record post bye, in losses and interstate is troubling and a key deterrence and I’ll be watching his season with great interest to see if he can improve his disposals average and reduce those games with 15 or below disposals (10/20 in 2018).
Will be very interesting to see how many select him as a pod/alternative to A Witherden as L Ryan could get off to a great start with 4 of their first 6 at Optus and Freo only play 4 teams from last years top 8 in the first 11 rounds (pre bye).
Hi Adam,
From many of the stats articles posted there might be 2 seasons out of three where a player averages significantly higher post-bye than pre-bye and in the other the averages are reversed (higher prr-bye than post-bye) – see Zach Merrett for example. For some players the split between a significantly better averaging pre-bye and post-bye seasons is split 50/50. I feel that pre/post bye averages don’t tell much of a story to how a player is performing. Players tend to go through patches of scoring impacted by form, injuries, team performance, tags and it is by chance that these patches fall into pre-bye/post-bye periods rather than players starting off seasons slowly (or vice versa). Hence I tend to disregard any pre/post bye stat figures. As the man behind the detail to the numbers I was wondering if you had any info to suggest otherwise?
Great articles by the way keep them up!
Thanks Ash and agree with all the sentiments mentioned above. Only a small number of instances are there players with a sufficient sample size that display a consistent tendency to either start or finish the season better.
Laird’s a prime example of this with 3 of the past 4 seasons starting better than finishing (past 2 seasons Laird- pre Bye= 108.7 from 22, Post bye= 98.37 from 19 with a 14 point differential in 2017 and a 5 point differential in 2018).
In regards to “Players tend to go through patches of scoring impacted by form, injuries, team performance, tags and it is by chance that these patches fall into pre-bye/post-bye periods rather than players starting off seasons slowly (or vice versa)”, I agree 100%.
It’s difficult to attribute their poor or good form without doing sufficient research if available to pinpoint the exact cause without looking solely at their averages (disposals, supercoach scoring, etc) which is why I use their pre and post bye form as an indicator to potentially identify whether there has been a role change, etc as well as identifying breakout talents.
Whilst Ryan’s performance post bye is a deterrence due to him averaging 15.29 disposals in comparison to 19.62 pre bye this could potentially be attributed to a change in role (eg lock-down/less intercepting, etc) it also indicates that he could be underpriced for the next season and the potential improvements that can be made across several categories.
Great to hear you are enjoying the articles as this is the completion of the 1st third of teams with roughly another 40-50 to come.
That’s fantastic Adam cheers for the response. I think you highlight it perfectly noting the pre-bye, post-bye averages are more a means of identifying these scoring patterns rather than a be all and end all for early/late season form. And good point about the rookies too as we tend to value their late season scoring over early season.
I had a feeling I was disregarding the pre/post bye firm too early so it was a good idea to consult the resident stats guru.
Cheers mate looking forward for the rest to come.
In before “Ryan can get stuffed never again listed for me” – Nateo, probably
Bet me to it 😛
Nathan Wilson