Elite Numbers ’19 – Max Gawn (MEL)

Written by Schwarzwalder on March 5 2019

(Written & Created By Adam)

Will Preuss be a factor in Gawn’s scoring ability?

 

Premium History (Avg>95):

2015: 102.1 from 13

2016: 118.5 from 22

2018: 127.5 from 22

 

Avg VS Opponent:

Adel: 114 from 3 (low of 98 and a high of 130, 1/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

Bris: 88.33 from 3 (low of 63 and a high of 105, 2/3 below 100)

Carl: 100.33 from 3 (low of 69 and a high of 121, 1/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

Coll: 100.4 from 5 (low of 76 and a high of 119, 2/5 below 100)

Ess: 134.33 from 3 (low of 85 and a high of 168, 1/3 below 100, 2/3 120+)

Freo: 132.67 from 3 (low of 106 and a high of 151, 2/3 120+)

Geel: 110.25 from 4 (low of 63 and a high of 146, 2/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)

GC: 135.5 from 4 (low of 108 and a high of 174, 2/4 120+)

GWS: 117.33 from 3 (low of 95 and a high of 156, 1/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

Haw: 131.67 from 3 (low of 112 and a high of 168, 1/3 120+)

NM: 123 from 3 (low of 80 and a high of 172, 1/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

Port: 152.67 from 3 (low of 140 and a high of 167, 3/3 120+)

Rich: 155.5 from 2 (low of 151 and a high of 160)

StK: 120 from 6 (low of 96 and a high of 145, 1/6 below 100, 3/6 120+)

Syd: 99 from 2 (low of 82 and a high of 116)

WC: 116.67 from 3 (low of 66 and a high of 156, 1/3 below 100, 2/3 120+)

WB: 98.25 from 4 (low of 49 and a high of 139, 2/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)

 

Avg at Venue:

MCG: 111.13 from 30 (10/30 below 100, 9/30 120+)

2015: 102.29 from 7

2016: 106.33 from 12

2018: 122 from 11

 

Interstate: 134.81 from 16 (2/16 below 100, 11/16 120+)

2015: 86 from 2

2016: 149.86 from 7

2018: 133.71 from 7

 

MCG Wins: 118.86 from 14 (2/14 below 100, 5/14 120+)

2015: 104.5 from 2

2016: 116.86 from 7

2018: 127.4 from 5

 

MCG Losses: 104.38 from 16 (8/16 below 100, 4/16 120+)

2015: 101.4 from 5

2016: 91.6 from 5

2018: 117.5 from 6

 

Wins: 128.82 from 28 (3/28 below 100, 16/28 120+)

2015: 114 from 4

2016: 128.4 from 10

2018: 133.36 from 14

 

Losses: 108.03 from 29 (13/29 below 100, 9/29 120+)

2015: 96.78 from 9

2016: 110.33 from 12

2018: 117.25 from 8

 

Pre Bye: 120.96 from 28 (8/28 below 100, 12/28 120+)

2015: 120.67 from 3

2016: 116.62 from 13

2018: 125.75 from 12

 

Post Bye: 115.62 from 29 (8/29 below 100, 13/29 120+)

2015: 96.5 from 10

2016: 121.33 from 9

2018: 129.6 from 10

 

2018 Stat Averages:

Disposals: 16.32

SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 17: 133.08 from 12 (low of 76 and a high of 156, 1/12 below 100, 9/12 120+)

SC Avg when disposals below 17: 120.8 from 10 (low of 82 and a high of 168, 3/10 below 100, 5/10 120+)

Kicks: 8.18

SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 9: 137.5 from 10 (low of 112 and a high of 156, 8/10 120+)

SC Avg when kicks below 9: 119.17 from 12 (low of 76 and a high of 168, 4/12 below 100, 6/12 120+)

Handballs: 8.14

SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 9: 128.44 from 9 (low of 76 and a high of 151, 1/9 below 100, 6/9 120+)

SC Avg when handballs below 9: 126.85 from 13 (low of 82 and a high of 168, 3/13 below 100, 8/13 120+)

Marks: 4.64

SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 5: 138.75 from 12 (low of 112 and a high of 168, 9/12 120+)

SC Avg when marks below 5: 114 from 10 (low of 76 and a high of 148, 4/10 below 100, 5/10 120+)

Contested Possessions: 8.59

SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 9: 138 from 10 (low of 76 and a high of 168, 1/10 below 100, 9/10 120+)

SC Avg when contested possessions below 9: 118.75 from 12 (low of 82 and a high of 156, 3/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)

Tackles: 2.45

SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 3: 139 from 9 (low of 112 and a high of 168, 7/9 120+)

SC Avg when tackles below 3: 119.54 from 13 (low of 76 and a high of 156, 4/13 below 100, 7/13 120+)

Clangers: 2.86

SC Avg when clangers below 3: 126.36 from 11 (low of 82 and a high of 168, 3/11 below 100, 6/11 120+)

SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 3: 128.64 from 11 (low of 76 and a high of 156, 1/11 below 100, 8/11 120+)

Hitouts: 45.45

SC Avg when hitouts equal/exceed 46: 122.1 from 10 (low of 82 and a high of 151, 2/10 below 100, 5/10 120+)

SC Avg when hitouts below 46: 132 from 12 (low of 76 and a high of 168, 2/12 below 100, 9/12 120+)

Hitouts to Advantage: 16.23

SC Avg when hitouts to advantage equal/exceed 17: 137.22 from 9 (low of 97 and a high of 168, 1/9 below 100, 7/9 120+)

 SC Avg when hitouts to advantage below 17: 120.77 from 13 (low of 82 and a high of 156, 3/13 below 100, 7/13 120+)

Time on Ground: 85.14

SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 86%: 129.4 from 10 (low of 76 and a high of 156, 2/10 below 100, 7/10 120+)

SC Avg when time on ground below 86%: 125.92 from 12 (low of 82 and a high of 168, 2/12 below 100, 7/12 120+)

 

Premium Career Stat Averages:

Disposals:

2015: 13.54

2016: 14.45

2018: 16.32

 

Kicks:

2015: 5.54

2016: 7

2018: 8.18

 

Handballs:

2015: 8

2016: 7.45

2018: 8.14

 

Marks:

2015: 4.46

2016: 4.14

2018: 4.64

 

Contested Possessions:

2015: 7.38

2016: 8.45

2018: 8.59

 

Tackles:

2015: 2.23

2016: 3.64

2018: 2.45

 

Clangers:

2015: 2

2016: 2.68

2018: 2.86

 

Hitouts:

2015: 37.31

2016: 42.18

2018: 45.45

 

Hitouts to Advantage:

2015: 11.92

2016: 14.27

2018: 16.23

 

HTA Rate%:

2015: 31.96%

2016: 33.84%

2018: 35.70%

 

Time on Ground%:

2015: 87.85%

2016: 84.41%

2018: 85.14%

 

Disposal Efficiency%:

2015: 74.43%

2016: 72.41%

2018: 71.03%

 

Contested Possession Rate%:

2015: 54.55%

2016: 57.41%

2018: 52.65%

 

Observations:

Averages 120+ against 12 teams (Adel, Ess, Freo, Geel, GC, GWS, Haw, NM, Port, Rich, StK, WC) with 10 against them pre-bye and 5 post bye.

Averages 111.13 from 30 matches at the MCG across his premium scoring history with 12 at the MCG in 2019 (7 pre-bye and 5 post bye)

134.81 average from 16 interstate matches with 4 pre-bye and 3 post bye.

20.79 win/loss differential with 2 of 3 seasons recording a 125+ avg in wins.

5.34 pre-bye/post bye differential with all 3 seasons exceeding 115 pre-bye.

20+ avg differential when marks equal/exceed 5.

 

A fantastic 2018 season by Gawn which was his 2nd season of playing over 13 games across his career (2011-2018) and his 2nd season playing a full 22 games which also coincided with his 2nd 110+ avg. Starts 2019 at an astronomical price and could be better suited to an upgrade target due to his injury history and concerns regarding the arrival of B Preuss which could affect his elite hitouts, hitouts to advantage and hitouts to advantage rate averages.

Verdict: Strongly consider for R1-R2/Upgrade Target

9
0


Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom

13 thoughts on “Elite Numbers ’19 – Max Gawn (MEL)”

  1. Those 10 matches of pre-bye against teams he averages 120+ really tries to get him into my team to start and not as an upgrade. However I have never really realised his injury history which has really turned me off him. It would be a start and only deal with him if missing games. I couldnt upgrade him with a good start in term of averages against opponents as he shouldn’t be dropping in price. Also bringing him may mean trading him out due to an injury which is more likely in him than others.

    At this stage he isn’t going to be in my team.

    3

    1
    1. Also he didn’t receive much games between 2011-2015 due to being stuck behind M Jamar and if I remember correctly he had approximately 2-3 knee reconstructions on his right knee in that 4-5 year period and a 2-3 month hamstring injury occurred in 2017.

      B Grundy, M Gawn and T Goldstein are clearly the top 3 options in my opinion and any duo containing those 3 should be solid but the non selection of M Gawn depends on if you can successfully utilise the 150,00 saved and if you expect him to drop back to the 110-120 range/injury/Preuss/etc. Only problem is his outstanding draw with a lack of top echelon rucks he has to face which means he could either dominate the 1st half of the season or he is eased in by them deploying Preuss.

      The Elite Numbers article for T Goldstein will likely be up tomorrow and will be interesting to see if the foundation/cornerstone (Grundstein) combination gains more traction.

      7

      0
      1. I’ve gone Grundy and Goldy due to byes and due to the save in cash which can be used in other areas like Walsh. I know what Goldy has produced and an upgrade in depth of midfielders at North should hopefully help him in HTA and possessions

        6

        0
  2. I put him in the same boat as Kelly and fyfe injury wise. But I’m taking him over those two for the simple fact he has the best chance of being no 1 in his position. If I were going Goldstein I would take either fyfe or Kelly. But I think they all will be OK this year injury wise. But less risks the better.

    6

    0
    1. I’ve gone with the same thoughts on Fyfe and other injury related players. I’ve gone with Fyfe all because of that round 12 bye and myself struggling to find many players I can back that have that same bye.

      1

      0
  3. *screams internally*

    Seriously, Gawn might be the most risky prospect in SC this year. A true beast threatened by the upstart Preuss. I’m backing the big man in all the way – he has the best tap work in the competition, to a mid group consisting of Viney, Oliver and Brayshaw!!! I think Pruess will function as a Mason Cox role similar to Tom McDonald did last year, freeing Gawn up to rest in the backline – and take the odd intercept mark.

    Tl;Dr – Lock. Him. In

    8

    0
  4. Another thing no one seems to factor in is.
    What if Grundy gets injured early on? And you can’t afford Gawn. Your now downgrading away from him.
    You could sideways him to Gawn. But for the people who started Gawn they can downgrade to the clear next in line without missing a beat.
    Not starting him you go from most likely having Grundy Goldstein to Goldstein and prob nank. Where if you started Gawn you can drop Grundy to anyone.

    2

    3
    1. Spot on. In JLT1 Preuss was completely ineffective, slow and cumbersome. His only asset is that he’s huge. That won’t keep big Max out of the ruck because Max is also huge but unlike Preuss he is also a gun footballer. All this Preuss talk is nothing he’ll be in the VFL. Good luck getting Gawn in later if you don’t start with him. Lock.

      6

      0
      1. I can’t follow it either, pruess couldn’t get a game at north last year and now he is apparently a threat to the best tap ruckman in the afl. Go maxy ,my first picked.

        1

        0
      2. Given his limited impact this may well be the case, but I will still be going with Goldy at this stage.

        *IF* I have spare trades after the bye I might reconsider, but not for me right now.

        0

        1
  5. Too expensive for the risk posed by Preuss and the fact the top 2 rucks never back it up.

    Additionally, starting both Grundy/Gawn is bye hell.

    I’ll be starting with Grundy/Goldy. Goldy is cheap after his personal and injury problems last year.

    1

    1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *