Elite Numbers ’19 – Mitch Duncan (GEE)

Written by Schwarzwalder on February 26 2019

(Written & Created By Adam)

Harsh words for the consistent MID from Geelong…….

 

Premium History (Avg>100):

2014: 100.05 from 22

2017: 109.81 from 21

2018: 106.2 from 20

 

Avg VS Opponent:

Adel: 93.5 from 4 (low of 86 and a high of 106, 3/4 below 100)

Bris: 117.75 from 4 (low of 71 and a high of 144, 1/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)

Carl: 88 from 4 (low of 52 and a high of 123, 2/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

Coll: 115.5 from 4 (low of 98 and a high of 142, 1/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

Ess: 92 from 3 (low of 70 and a high of 105, 1/3 below 100)

Freo: 102 from 5 (low of 88 and a high of 118, 2/5 below 100)

GC: 109.25 from 4 (low of 84 and a high of 136,1 /4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

GWS: 111 from 4 (low of 89 and a high of 134, 2/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)

Haw: 109.2 from 5 (low of 72 and a high of 125, 1/5 below 100, 2/5 120+)

Melb: 92.25 from 4 (low of 53 and a high of 120, 2/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

NM: 109 from 4 (low of 95 and a high of 145, 3/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

Port: 88.33 from 3 (low of 80 and a high of 99)

Rich: 99.67 from 3 (low of 92 and a high of 110, 2/3 below 100)

StK: 117 from 3 (low of 107 and a high of 136, 1/3 120+)

Syd: 112.5 from 4 (low of 86 and a high of 132, 1/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)

WC: 109.5 from 2 (low of 101 and a high of 118)

WB: 123.33 from 3 (low of 116 and a high of 130, 2/3 120+)

 

Avg at Venue:

GMHBA Stadium: 111.82 from 22 (7/22 below 100, 8/22 120+)

2014: 111.43 from 7

2017: 111.83 from 6

2018: 112.11 from 9

Interstate: 101.56 from 16 (8/16 below, 3/16 120+)

2014: 88.67 from 6

2017: 111 from 6

2018: 106.75 from 4

 

GMHBA Stadium Wins: 111.05 from 20 (7/20 below 100, 7/20 120+)

2014: 111.43 from 7

2017: 107.8 from 5

2018: 112.75 from 8

 

GMHBA Stadium Losses: 119.5 from 2 (1/2 120+)

2014: 0 from 0

2017: 132 from 1

2018: 107 from 1

 

Wins: 107.41 from 44 (17/44 below 100, 14/44 120+)

2014: 100.24 from 17

2017: 113.36 from 14

2018: 110.38 from 13

 

Losses: 100.5 from 18 (7/18 below 100, 2/18 120+)

2014: 99.4 from 5

2017: 103.83 from 6

2018: 98.43 from 7

 

Pre Bye: 104.48 from 29 (14/29 below 100, 7/29 120+)

2014: 100 from 7

2017: 105 from 11

2018: 106.82 from 11

 

Post Bye: 105.91 from 34 (11/34 below 100, 9/34 120+)

2014: 100.07 from 15

2017: 115.1 from 10

2018: 105.44 from 9

 

2018 Stat Averages:

Disposals: 26.6

SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 27: 119.44 from 9 (low of 102 and a high of 136, 4/9 120+)

SC Avg when disposals below 27: 95.36 from 11 (low of 72 and a high of 109, 7/11 below 100)

Kicks: 15.15

SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 16: 118.44 from 9 (low of 101 and a high of 136, 4/9 120+)

SC Avg when kicks below 16: 96.18 from 11 (low of 72 and a high of 117, 7/11 below 100)

Handballs: 11.45

SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 12: 113.5 from 8 (low of 72 and a high of 136, 1/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)

SC Avg when handballs below 12: 101.33 from 12 (low of 80 and a high of 123, 6/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)

Marks: 6.45

SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 7: 110.4 from 10 (low of 94 and a high of 134, 2/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)

SC Avg when marks below 7: 102 from 10 (low of 72 and a high of 136, 5/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)

Contested Possessions: 8.25

SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 9: 112.13 from 8 (low of 97 and a high of 134, 2/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)

SC Avg when contested possessions below 9: 102.25 from 12 (low of 72 and a high of 136, 5/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)

Tackles: 3.55

SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 4: 103.3 from 10 (low of 86 and a high of 117, 4/10 below 100)

SC Avg when tackles below 4: 109.1 from 10 (low of 72 and a high of 136, 3/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)

Clangers: 3.45

SC Avg when clangers below 4: 112.83 from 12 (low of 94 and a high of 136, 4/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)

SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 4: 99.25 from 8 (low of 72 and a high of 134, 3/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)

Time on Ground%: 84.4%

SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 85%: 103.45 from 11 (low of 72 and a high of 136, 5/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)

SC Avg when time on ground below 85%: 109.56 from 9 (low of 80 and a high of 134, 2/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)

 

Premium Career Stat Averages:

Disposals:

2014: 22.95

2017: 28.95

2018: 26.6

 

Kicks:

2014: 12.82

2017: 13.86

2018: 15.15

 

Handballs:

2014: 10.14

2017: 15.10

2018: 11.45

 

Marks:

2014: 6.45

2017: 6.38

2018: 6.45

 

Contested Possessions:

2014: 7.77

2017: 9.38

2018: 8.25

 

Tackles:

2014: 3.18

2017: 5.14

2018: 3.55

 

Clangers:

2014: 2.77

2017: 3.38

2018: 3.45

 

Time on Ground %:

2014: 86.14%

2017: 80.57%

2018: 84.4%

 

Disposal Efficiency%:

2014: 77.23%

2017: 75.33%

2018: 75.19%

 

Contested Possession Rate%:

2014: 33.46%

2017: 31.57%

2018: 30.33%

 

Observations:

Averages 110+ against 6 teams (Bris, Coll, GWS, StK, Syd, WB) with 4 both pre and post bye against them in 2019.

Averages 111.82 at GMHBA from 22 games across his premium scoring history with all seasons exceed 110+ with 9 there in 2019 with 5 pre-bye and 4 post bye.

6.91 win/loss differential

1.43 post bye/pre-bye differential

20+ avg differential when disposals equal/exceed 27 and kicks equal/exceed 16.

 

Better options around the same price range as it’s unlikely Duncan will exceed 110 due to the amount of players capable of receiving consistent and large midfield minutes at Geelong as well as a deterrent being Duncan’s game style which is primarily outside.

Verdict: Irrelevant

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5 thoughts on “Elite Numbers ’19 – Mitch Duncan (GEE)”

  1. No responses?! Says it all really.

    Would start him over Neale tho!
    Yes, completely different given he’s more of an outside player, but the extra time the 6-6-6 should afford him from quick inside ball, will make him even more deadly at hitting up a target inside 50. I’d think and hope it’s been a key focus for the Cats in the off-season!

    That said. Won’t be starting either. Thanks Adam, though I think irrelevant might be a touch harsh?!

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    1. Honestly I find Duncan more relevant than Ablett, due to Duncan playing full seasons. Sure he doesn’t have the high ceiling like many other players. He is a relatively reliable POD. In 2017 he finished 14th in season rank and last year was 35th after missing rounds 2 & 3 due to a hamstring injury. From 2012 he has played 20+ games, except 2015.
      He will score the total points for you, but won’t have the massive average

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    2. Thanks All Saints. Whilst a touch harsh I cant always provide the same verdict of consider/upgrade target as it gets a bit repetitive so the tough calls have to be made. He doesn’t offer much upside at his current price in conjunction with 10-20 mids that are more appealing either as starters or upgrade targets but with their relatively easy draw post bye he could be a great upgrade target for a M7-M9.

      Always rated M Duncan due to his superb skills by foot but whilst he has the trio of P Dangerfield, G Ablett and J Selwood as teammates to contend with it’s very difficult for him to post a 110+ average.

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  2. Hi Adam, I agree totally with your assessment .. it gets worse with Menegola, Parfitt and Kelly also rolling through the middle.
    Disagree with AllSaint though … I’d take Neale readily ahead of Duncan.
    Neale will spend pretty much all game on the ball.. can play inside and out … but he does need S Martin on the park to bust it open for him.

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