Elite Numbers ’19 – Rory Laird (ADE)

Written by Schwarzwalder on January 30 2019

(Written & Created By Adam)

 

Premium history (Avg>90):

2015: 93.81 from 21

2016: 96.82 from 17

2017: 100.18 from 22

2018: 108.25 from 20

 

Avg VS Opponent:

Bris: 99.6 from 5 (low of 90 and a high of 111, 3/5 below 100)

Carl: 118.4 from 5 (low of 72 and a high of 138, 1/5 below 100, 4/5 120+)

Coll: 104 from 3 (low of 85 and a high of 129, 2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

Ess: 109.6 from 5 (low of 80 and a high of 137, 2/5 below 100, 2/5 120+)

Freo: 105.75 from 4 (low of 89 and a high of 131, 2/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

Geel: 86.6 from 5 (low of 59 and a high of 133, 4/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

GC: 116.5 from 4 (low of 99 and a high of 124, 1/4 below 100, 3/4 120+)

GWS: 101.5 from 4 (low of 63 and a high of 147, 2/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

Haw: 85.25 from 4 (low of 72 and a high of 114, 3/4 below 100)

Melb: 97 from 6 (low of 52 and a high of 124, 4/6 below 100, 2/6 120+)

NM: 101 from 5 (low of 90 and a high of 117, 2/5 below 100)

Port: 90.38 from 8 (low of 76 and a high of 127, 7/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)

Rich: 99.8 from 5 (low of 82 and a high of 122, 3/5 below 100, 2/5 120+)

StK: 103.5 from 4 (low of 74 and a high of 134, 1/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

Syd: 98 from 4 (low of 63 and a high of 124, 2/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

WC: 95.17 from 6 (low of 72 and a high of 112, 3/6 below 100)

WB: 93.33 from 3 (low of 59 and a high of 119, 1/3 below 100)

 

Avg at Venue:

Adelaide Oval: 103.52 from 44 (21/44 below 100, 13/44 120+)

2015: 97.91 from 11

2016: 96.88 from 9

2017: 109 from 12

2018: 108.17 from 12

 

Interstate: 95.28 from 36 (22/36 below 100, 7/36 120+)

2015: 89.3 from 10

2016: 96.75 from 8

2017: 89.6 from 10

2018: 108.38 from 8

 

Adelaide Oval Wins: 103 from 33 (16/33 below 100, 9/33 120+)

2015: 92.88 from 8

2016: 98.75 from 8

2017: 109.78 from 9

2018: 109.75 from 8

 

Adelaide Oval Losses: 105.09 from 11 (5/11 below 100, 4/11 120+)

2015: 111.33 from 3

2016: 82 from 1

2017: 106.67 from 3

2018: 105 from 4

 

Wins: 103.94 from 53 (24/53 below 100, 15/53 120+)

2015: 98.08 from 13

2016: 101.85 from 13

2017: 104.53 from 15

2018: 111.83 from 12

 

Losses: 91.96 from 26 (18/26 below 100, 5/26 120+)

2015: 86.88 from 8

2016: 80.5 from 4

2017: 91.83 from 6

2018: 102.88 from 8

 

Pre Bye: 102.95 from 41 (18/41 below 100, 13/41 120+)

2015: 95.5 from 10

2016: 95.75 from 8

2017: 106.67 from 12

2018: 110.91 from 11

 

Post Bye: 96.51 from 39 (25/39 below 100, 7/39 120+)

2015: 92.27 from 11

2016: 97.78 from 9

2017: 92.4 from 10

2018: 105 from 9

 

2018 Stat Averages:

Disposals: 32.2

SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 33: 119.63 from 8 (low of 84 and a high of 138, 2/8 below 100, 5/8 120+)

SC Avg when disposals below 33: 100.67 from 12 (low of 76 and a high of 120, 5/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)

Kicks: 16

SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 16: 110 from 9 (low of 84 and a high of 138, 2/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)

SC Avg when kicks below 16: 106.82 from 11 (low of 76 and a high of 137, 5/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)

Handballs: 16.3

SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 17: 118 from 8 (low of 98 and a high of 137, 2/8 below 100, 4/8 120+)

SC Avg when handballs below 17: 101.75 from 12 (low of 76 and a high of 138, 5/12 below 100, 2/12 120+)

Marks: 6.2

SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 7: 115.63 from 8 (low of 98 and a high of 138, 2/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)

SC Avg when marks below 7: 103.33 from 12 (low of 76 and a high of 133, 5/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)

Contested Possessions: 10

SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 10: 113.3 from 10 (low of 89 and a high of 137, 2/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)

SC Avg when contested possessions below 10: 103.2 from 10 (low of 76 and a high of 138, 5/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)

Tackles: 2.2

SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 3: 103.78 from 9 (low of 76 and a high of 138, 4/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)

SC Avg when tackles below 3: 111.91 from 11 (low of 84 and a high of 137, 3/11 below 100, 4/11 120+)

Clangers: 3.1

SC Avg when clangers below 4: 110.25 from 12 (low of 76 and a high of 138, 4/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)

SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 4: 105.25 from 8 (low of 84 and a high of 129, 3/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)

Time on Ground%: 85.4%

SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 86%: 110.56 from 9 (low of 84 and a high of 133, 3/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)

SC Avg when time on ground below 86%: 106.36 from 11 (low of 76 and a high of 138, 4/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)

 

Premium career stat averages:

Disposals:

2015: 24.29

2016: 27.47

2017: 30.09

2018: 32.2

 

Kicks:

2015: 12.33

2016: 13.06

2017: 14.77

2018: 15.95

 

Handballs:

2015: 11.95

2016: 14.41

2017: 15.32

2018: 16.25

 

Marks:

2015: 5.81

2016: 6.71

2017: 5.32

2018: 6.20

 

Contested Possessions:

2015: 7.67

2016: 8.35

2017: 8.82

2018: 9.95

 

Tackles:

2015: 2.57

2016: 2.18

2017: 2.27

2018: 2.15

Clangers:

2015: 2.38

2016: 2.47

2017: 2.68

2018: 3.1

 

Time on Ground %:

2015: 82.13%

2016: 84.53%

2017: 85.27%

2018: 85.62%

 

Disposal Efficiency%:

2015: 80.39%

2016: 81.58%

2017: 80.97%

2018: 77.6%

 

Contested Possession Rate%:

2015: 31.63%

2016: 30.27%

2017: 29.48%

2018: 30.90%

 

Observations:

Averages less than 90 against 2 teams (Geel and Haw) and plays them both in the first 3 rounds.

Averages 105+ against 4 teams (Carl, Ess, Freo, GC) and plays 2 matches against them pre-bye and 3 post bye.

Adelaide Oval avg of 103.52 from 44 since 2015 with 21/44 below 100 and 13/44 120+ and since 2017 averages 108.58 from 24.

2 consecutive years of a 109.75+ avg in AO Wins.

8/13 matches pre-bye at AO in 2019 compared to 4/9 post bye.

7/13 matches pre-bye against 2018 top 8 teams in comparison to 3/9 post bye in 2019.

2018 was the first time he finished with an interstate avg over 100+ and since 2015 has averaged 95.28 from 36 with 22/36 below 100 and 7/36 120+.

11.98 win/loss differential and 2018 was the only season with a win/loss differential below 10.

6.44 pre-bye/post bye differential with 2016 being the only season he has averaged more post bye.

Since 2017 he has recorded a pre-bye avg of 108.70 from 23 in comparison to a post bye avg of 98.37 from 19.

 

Over the past four years, Laird has established himself amongst the top echelon of SC defenders which is highlighted by his 2 successive years of averaging 100+. With the return of B.Smith and the emergence of Milera in the backline his current figures achieved this year could be unsustainable and slightly deviate thus potentially leading to a 100-105 avg.

Whilst Laird could be viewed as slightly overpriced I think the safer option which is dependent on what structure you plan to implement is to start Laird rather than identifying him as an upgrade target. This is due to his historical tendency to start the year better then he finishes as well as Adelaide’s favourable start to the year regarding the number of matches at the Adelaide Oval pre-bye which should benefit Laird.

Verdict: Strongly consider for D1-D2

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6 thoughts on “Elite Numbers ’19 – Rory Laird (ADE)”

  1. More Great work Sauce.
    I’m trying to reconcile these 2 comments:
    “Averages less than 90 against 2 teams (Geel and Haw) and plays them both in the first 3 rounds”… vs … “…….start Laird rather than identifying him as an upgrade target. This is due to his historical tendency to start the year better then he finishes as well as Adelaide’s favourable start to the year …”
    Conundrum … I was leaning to getting him as a first upgrade after an initial price fall….. more deliberation required….

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    1. Laird’s first match will only affect his price change in Rd3 so it won’t have much of an effect and he actually performs well against Geel and Haw at the Adelaide Oval averaging 100.5 from 4 matches against them in comparison to averaging 74.4 from 5 versing the combined teams at their home ground (MCG/GMHBA).

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      1. Might I also add that he seems to like to get his hands on the footy early season. Laird‘s last four Rd1 scores (most recent first, 2018) are: 137, 147, 90 and 107. Pretty handy.

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  2. Brilliant Adam. Started him last year and will again if there are enough decent rookies.
    Currently have Lloyd and Whitfield just ahead of him, but that’s just my preference.
    Thanks again!

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  3. Well written Adam thanks. I am starting him and Lloyd at D1 D2 it is a non brainer. He has been solid for me in the last few years and is a set and forget. It is even better that he may get the bad scores out of the way before SC scoring starts. Adelaide doesn’t seem to look like a great title contenders this year, do you think it would affect his scoring ?

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  4. My problems with Laird are twofold.

    1) he shares the bye with Lachie Whitfield and Zac Williams. Given the choice of 2 of these 3, because byes, I’m going with Whitfield getting more midfield time after the GWS player losses, and Zac Williams’ discounted price.

    2) The return of Brodie Smith. Brodie Smith should be a 90+ point per game defender again this year and will likely stifle the scoring of Laird. Milera will too, but a lesser effect than Smith.

    I agree with the above comments though, if you are going to get Laird, start with him, and aim to get Lloyd as your upgrade premo instead. Laird tends to start with a bang, where Lloyd can regularly start slow and go bang near or after the byes. Jake Lloyd only got one hundred in the first 7 rounds in 2018, 1 in the first 5 rounds of 2017, and one in the first 9 rounds of 2016.

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