Elite Numbers ’19 – Tom McDonald (MEL)

Written by Schwarzwalder on March 6 2019

(Written & Created By Adam)

#1 FWD at Melbourne, can he make the Top6 FWDs overall?

 

Premium History (Avg>90):

2015: 95.91 from 22

2018: 97.59 from 17

 

Avg VS Opponent:

Adel: 88 from 3 (low of 80 and a high of 95)

Bris: 85 from 1

Carl: 124 from 2 (low of 118 and a high of 130)

Coll: 90.33 from 3 (low of 58 and a high of 123, 2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

Ess: 113.5 from 2 (low of 86 and a high of 141)

Freo: 91 from 3 (low of 48 and a high of 122, 1/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

Geel: 71.5 from 2 (low of 36 and a high of 107)

GC: 113.33 from 3 (low of 80 and a high of 135, 1/3 below 100, 2/3 120+)

GWS: 110.33 from 3 (low of 98 and a high of 122, 1/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

Haw: 124 from 1

NM: 99 from 1

Port: 78.5 from 2 (low of 67 and a high of 90)

Rich: 97 from 1

StK: 78.25 from 4 (low of 39 and a high of 125, 3/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

Syd: 113 from 2 (low of 103 and a high of 123)

WC: 74.5 from 2 (low of 65 and a high of 84)

WB: 105.5 from 4 (low of 74 and a high of 164, 3/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

 

Avg at Venue:

MCG: 98.85 from 20 (11/20 below 100, 7/20 120+)

2015: 103.23 from 13

2018: 90.71 from 7

 

Interstate: 84.3 from 10 (8/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)

2015: 79.4 from 5

2018: 89.2 from 5

 

MCG Wins: 91.11 from 9 (7/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)

2015: 90 from 5

2018: 92.5 from 4

 

MCG Losses: 105.18 from 11 (4/11 below 100, 6/11 120+)

2015: 111.5 from 8

2018: 88.33 from 3

 

Wins: 94.42 from 19 (13/19 below 100, 3/19 120+)

2015: 85.29 from 7

2018: 99.75 from 12

 

Losses: 98.75 from 20 (10/20 below 100, 8/20 120+)

2015: 100.87 from 15

2018: 92.4 from 5

 

Pre Bye: 105.42 from 19 (9/19 below 100, 9/19 120+)

2015: 100.92 from 12

2018: 113.14 from 7

 

Post Bye: 88.3 from 20 (14/20 below 100, 2/20 120+)

2015: 89.9 from 10

2018: 86.7 from 10

 

Disposals: 15.65

SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 16: 106.64 from 11 (low of 74 and a high of 164, 4/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)

SC Avg when disposals below 16: 81 from 6 (low of 39 and a high of 98)

Kicks: 9.47

SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 10: 108.63 from 8 (low of 80 and a high of 164, 3/8 below 100, 2/8 120+)

SC Avg when kicks below 10: 87.78 from 9 (low of 39 and a high of 123, 7/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)

Handballs: 6.18

SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 7: 110 from 6 (low of 74 and a high of 164, 2/6 below 100, 2/6 120+)

SC Avg when handballs below 7: 90.82 from 11 (low of 39 and a high of 135, 8/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)

Marks: 6.53

SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 7: 108 from 9 (low of 80 and a high of 164, 4/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)

SC Avg when marks below 7: 85.88 from 8 (low of 39 and a high of 118, 6/8 below 100)

Contested Possessions: 7

SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 7: 107.11 from 9 (low of 74 and a high of 164 3/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)

SC Avg when contested possessions below 7: 86.88 from 8 (low of 39 and a high of 135, 7/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)

Tackles: 2.53

SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 3: 114.17 from 6 (low of 84 and a high of 164, 2/6 below 100, 2/6 120+)

SC Avg when tackles below 3: 88.55 from 11 (low of 39 and a high of 135, 8/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)

Clangers: 1.82

SC Avg when clangers below 2: 100.22 from 9 (low of 39 and a high of 164, 4/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)

SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 2: 94.63 from 8 (low of 74 and a high of 135, 6/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)

Goals: 2.82

SC Avg when goals equal/exceed 3: 108.2 from 10 (low of 74 and a high of 164, 5/10 below 100, 3/10 120+)

SC Avg when goals below 3: 82.43 from 7 (low of 39 and a high of 103, 5/7 below 100)

Time on Ground%: 85.12%

SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 86%: 103.18 from 11 (low of 39 and a high of 164, 5/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)

SC Avg when time on ground below 86%: 87.33 from 6 (low of 74 and a high of 118, 5/6 below 100)

 

Premium Career Stat Averages:

Disposals:

2015: 18.95

2018: 15.65

 

Kicks:

2015: 12.18

2018: 9.47

 

Handballs:

2015: 6.77

2018: 6.18

 

Marks:

2015: 7.05

2018: 6.53

 

Contested Possessions:

2015: 6.27

2018: 7

 

Tackles:

2015: 2

2018: 2.53

 

Clangers:

2015: 2

2018: 1.82

 

Goals:

2015: 0.23

2018: 2.82

 

Time on Ground %:

2015: 94.68%

2018: 85.12%

 

Disposal Efficiency%:

2015: 76.50%

2018: 73.68%

 

Contested Possession Rate%:

2015: 33.74%

2018: 43.43%

 

Observations:

Averages 110+ against 6 teams (Carl, Ess, GC, GWS, Haw, Syd) with 5 against them pre-bye and 2 post bye.

4.33 loss/win differential

17.12 pre-bye/post bye differential

25+ avg differential when disposals equal/exceed 16, tackles equal/exceed 3 and goals equal/exceed 3.

 

With the departure of Hogan, McDonald will be the focal point of Melbourne’s forward line which should be beneficial for his SC avg due to potential increments in his mark and goal averages but with key position players their scores fluctuate heavily. Therefore, he could be potentially better utilised as an upgrade target when he inevitably dips below 500,000 to around the 420,000 to 465,000 range.

Verdict: Upgrade target

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3 thoughts on “Elite Numbers ’19 – Tom McDonald (MEL)”

  1. One thing I really like about McDonald is that he’s durable. Before last year, he missed 1 game in four years. He did miss the first five weeks of the season in 2018, but he didn’t miss a game once he returned.

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  2. Yep. Hoping he has a couple of poor ones to drop enough in price. He could well put up some monster scores in 2019 but is way too expensive to start him.

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