Elite Numbers ’19 – Zach Merrett (ESS)

Written by Schwarzwalder on February 20 2019

(Written & Created By Adam)

 

Adam‘s first ‘LOCK’ of the season…….Zach Merrett

 

Premium History (Avg>100):

2016: 111.45 from 22

2017: 109.24 from 21

2018: 100.36 from 22

 

Avg VS Opponent:

Adel: 76.33 from 3 (low of 17 and a high of 120, 2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

Bris: 114.75 from 4 (low of 92 and a high of 135, 1/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)

Carl: 100.6 from 5 (low of 79 and a high of 141, 4/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

Coll: 97.8 from 5 (low of 53 and a high of 130, 2/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

Freo: 122.8 from 5 (low of 95 and a high of 135, 1/5 below 100, 4/5 120+)

Geel: 119 from 4 (low of 98 and a high of 137, 1/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)

GC: 105.25 from 4 (low of 92 and a high of 114, 1/4 below 100)

GWS: 105 from 3 (low of 89 and a high of 118, 1/3 below 100)

Haw: 102.75 from 4 (low of 72 and a high of 126, 2/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

Melb: 110.33 from 3 (low of 89 and a high of 131, 1/3 below `100, 1/3 120+)

NM: 115.33 from 3 (low of 98 and a high of 130, 1/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

Port: 110.75 from 4 (low of 99 and a high of 135, 1/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)

Rich: 98.8 from 5 (low of 74 and a high of 138, 3/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)

StK: 117.5 from 4 (low of 100 and a high of 129, 3/4 120+)

Syd: 120.33 from 3 (low of 106 and a high of 141, 1/3 120+)

WC: 113.33 from 3 (low of 107 and a high of 121, 1/3 120+)

WB: 84 from 3 (low of 53 and a high of 132, 2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)

 

Avg at Venue:

MCG: 104.95 from 22 (10/22 below 100, 7/22 120+)

2016: 107.14 from 7

2017: 105 from 7

2018: 103 from 8

 

Marvel: 105.96 from 25 (8/25 below 100, 9/25 120+)

2016: 115.78 from 9

2017: 105.38 from 8

2018: 95.5 from 8

 

Interstate: 110.89 from 18 (5/18 below 100, 6/18 120+)

2016: 110 from 6

2017: 119.33 from 6

2018: 103.33 from 6

 

MCG Wins: 117.5 from 8 (2/8 below 100, 4/8 120+)

2016: 136 from 2

2017: 110 from 5

2018: 118 from 1

 

MCG Losses: 97.79 from 14 (8/14 below 100, 3/14 120+)

2016: 95.6 from 5

2017: 92.5 from 2

2018: 100.86 from 7

 

Marvel Wins: 109 from 12 (2/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)

2016: 113 from 1

2017: 119 from 5

2018: 100 from 6

 

Marvel Losses: 103.15 from 13 (6/13 below 100, 4/13 120+)

2016: 116.13 from 8

2017: 82.67 from 3

2018: 82 from 2

 

Wins: 110.26 from 27 (6/27 below 100, 10/27 120+)

2016: 128.33 from 3

2017: 112.42 from 12

2018: 103.58 from 12

 

Losses: 104.66 from 38 (17/38 below 100, 12/38 120+)

2016: 108.79 from 19

2017: 105 from 9

2018: 96.5 from 10

 

Pre Bye: 102.03 from 25 (15/37 below 100, 10/37 120+)

2016: 104.08 from 13

2017: 112.08 from 12

2018: 89.75 from 12

 

Post Bye: 113.54 from 28 (8/28 below 100, 12/28 120+)

2016: 122.11 from 9

2017: 105.44 from 9

2018: 113.1 from 10

 

2018 Stat Averages:

Disposals: 26.82

SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 27: 114.92 from 13 (low of 102 and a high of 130, 4/13 120+)

SC Avg when disposals below 27: 79.33 from 9 (low of 17 and a high of 114, 7/9 below 100)

Kicks: 12.77

SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 13: 113.69 from 13 (low of 102 and a high of 130, 4/13 120+)

SC Avg when kicks below 13: 81.11 from 9 (low of 17 and a high of 118, 7/9 below 100)

Handballs: 14.05

SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 15: 115.3 from 10 (low of 102 and a high of 130, 3/10 120+)

SC Avg when handballs below 15: 87.92 from 12 (low of 17 and a high of 123, 7/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)

Marks: 3.14

SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 4: 111.67 from 9 (low of 93 and a high of 130, 1/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)

SC Avg when marks below 4: 92.54 from 13 (low of 17 and a high of 123, 6/13 below 100, 1/13 120+)

Contested Possessions: 10.64

SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 11: 111.92 from 12 (low of 89 and a high of 130, 3/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)

SC Avg when contested possessions below 11: 86.5 from 10 (low of 17 and a high of 120, 4/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)

Tackles: 6

SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 6: 108.31 from 13 (low of 79 and a high of 130, 3/13 below 100, 3/13 120+)

SC Avg when tackles below 6: 88.89 from 9 (low of 17 and a high of 121, 4/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)

Clangers: 2.95

SC Avg when clangers below 3: 101.09 from 11 (low of 17 and a high of 130, 3/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)

SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 3: 99.64 from 11 (low of 53 and a high of 123, 4/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)

Time on Ground: 76.41%

SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 77%: 107.4 from 15 (low of 79 and a high of 130, 4/15 below 100, 4/15 120+)

SC Avg when time on ground below 77%: 85.29 from 7 (low of 17 and a high of 118, 3/7 below 100, 0/7 120+)

 

Premium Career Stat Averages:

Disposals:

2016: 29.86

2017: 29.95

2018: 26.82

 

Kicks:

2016: 15.86

2017: 17.36

2018: 12.77

 

Handballs:

2016: 14

2017: 12.59

2018: 14.05

 

Marks:

2016: 5

2017: 4.32

2018: 3.14

 

Contested Possessions:

2016: 10.41

2017: 9

2018: 10.64

 

Tackles:

2016: 6.18

2017: 5.55

2018: 6

 

Clangers:

2016: 2.77

2017: 3

2018: 2.95

 

Time on Ground %:

2016: 80.36%

2017: 76.73%

2018: 76.41%

 

Disposal Efficiency%:

2016: 72.3%

2017: 70.9%

2018: 69.8%

 

Contested Possession Rate%:

2016: 34.23%

2017: 30.37%

2018: 39.13%

 

Observations:

Averages 110+ against 9 teams (Bris, Freo, Geel, Melb, NM, Port, StK, Syd, WC) with 7 pre-bye and 5 post bye.

5.6 win/loss differential with 2018 the only season since 2016 he hasn’t averaged 110+ in wins.

11.51 post bye/pre-bye differential.

25+ differential when disposals equal/exceed 27, kicks equal/exceed 13, handballs equal/exceed 15 and contested possessions equal/exceed 11.

 

Merrett is severely under-priced in 2019 due to a concussion-affected 17 in Rd1 and a slow start which yielded less than 20 disposals on 4 occasions. Before 2018 he had 47 consecutive games equalling or exceeding 20 disposals and 4 of his last 60 matches were below 20 disposals.

He is very durable and consistent evident by playing a possible 65 of 66 games in the past 3 seasons (missed one through suspension).  Merrett averaged 110.37 from 43 matches in 2016/17 and 108.39 in the past 3 seasons excluding the RD1 2018 injury-affected game. Only 8 games below 85 in the last 3 seasons with 4 occurring in the first 8 rounds of 2018 and 22/65 120+ in the past 4 seasons with 4 120+ in 2018.

With the recruitment of Shiel this could possibly benefit Merrett as he could receive less attention from the opposition thus allowing him to return or improve on his 2016-2017 averages.

Verdict: Lock

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15 thoughts on “Elite Numbers ’19 – Zach Merrett (ESS)”

    1. Article was written and completed by late December before his injury and it was mentioned above about the tag concerns and whilst both are deterrents I don’t think it is enough to outweigh the upsides associated with the selection.

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      1. Compelling. Especially when you consider his TOG% and pts/min.
        Unless he gets injured (and that applies to ANYone) he has to be rated as a “can’t lose” starter.
        Great stuff Adam.

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  1. In my starting team at present … one of a few since version 1.
    His ankle is good and he is back in training, actually had a run in the inter-club practice match. Will be good for R1.
    Has plenty of upside if he can improve his disposal … and Shiel wont impact him at all … just like he didn’t for Kelly, Ward, Coniglio and others … (hopefully Shiel’s poor disposal won’t rub-off)

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