(Written & Created By Adam)
Adam‘s first ‘LOCK’ of the season…….Zach Merrett
Premium History (Avg>100):
2016: 111.45 from 22
2017: 109.24 from 21
2018: 100.36 from 22
Avg VS Opponent:
Adel: 76.33 from 3 (low of 17 and a high of 120, 2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)
Bris: 114.75 from 4 (low of 92 and a high of 135, 1/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)
Carl: 100.6 from 5 (low of 79 and a high of 141, 4/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)
Coll: 97.8 from 5 (low of 53 and a high of 130, 2/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)
Freo: 122.8 from 5 (low of 95 and a high of 135, 1/5 below 100, 4/5 120+)
Geel: 119 from 4 (low of 98 and a high of 137, 1/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)
GC: 105.25 from 4 (low of 92 and a high of 114, 1/4 below 100)
GWS: 105 from 3 (low of 89 and a high of 118, 1/3 below 100)
Haw: 102.75 from 4 (low of 72 and a high of 126, 2/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)
Melb: 110.33 from 3 (low of 89 and a high of 131, 1/3 below `100, 1/3 120+)
NM: 115.33 from 3 (low of 98 and a high of 130, 1/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)
Port: 110.75 from 4 (low of 99 and a high of 135, 1/4 below 100, 1/4 120+)
Rich: 98.8 from 5 (low of 74 and a high of 138, 3/5 below 100, 1/5 120+)
StK: 117.5 from 4 (low of 100 and a high of 129, 3/4 120+)
Syd: 120.33 from 3 (low of 106 and a high of 141, 1/3 120+)
WC: 113.33 from 3 (low of 107 and a high of 121, 1/3 120+)
WB: 84 from 3 (low of 53 and a high of 132, 2/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)
Avg at Venue:
MCG: 104.95 from 22 (10/22 below 100, 7/22 120+)
2016: 107.14 from 7
2017: 105 from 7
2018: 103 from 8
Marvel: 105.96 from 25 (8/25 below 100, 9/25 120+)
2016: 115.78 from 9
2017: 105.38 from 8
2018: 95.5 from 8
Interstate: 110.89 from 18 (5/18 below 100, 6/18 120+)
2016: 110 from 6
2017: 119.33 from 6
2018: 103.33 from 6
MCG Wins: 117.5 from 8 (2/8 below 100, 4/8 120+)
2016: 136 from 2
2017: 110 from 5
2018: 118 from 1
MCG Losses: 97.79 from 14 (8/14 below 100, 3/14 120+)
2016: 95.6 from 5
2017: 92.5 from 2
2018: 100.86 from 7
Marvel Wins: 109 from 12 (2/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)
2016: 113 from 1
2017: 119 from 5
2018: 100 from 6
Marvel Losses: 103.15 from 13 (6/13 below 100, 4/13 120+)
2016: 116.13 from 8
2017: 82.67 from 3
2018: 82 from 2
Wins: 110.26 from 27 (6/27 below 100, 10/27 120+)
2016: 128.33 from 3
2017: 112.42 from 12
2018: 103.58 from 12
Losses: 104.66 from 38 (17/38 below 100, 12/38 120+)
2016: 108.79 from 19
2017: 105 from 9
2018: 96.5 from 10
Pre Bye: 102.03 from 25 (15/37 below 100, 10/37 120+)
2016: 104.08 from 13
2017: 112.08 from 12
2018: 89.75 from 12
Post Bye: 113.54 from 28 (8/28 below 100, 12/28 120+)
2016: 122.11 from 9
2017: 105.44 from 9
2018: 113.1 from 10
2018 Stat Averages:
Disposals: 26.82
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 27: 114.92 from 13 (low of 102 and a high of 130, 4/13 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 27: 79.33 from 9 (low of 17 and a high of 114, 7/9 below 100)
Kicks: 12.77
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 13: 113.69 from 13 (low of 102 and a high of 130, 4/13 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 13: 81.11 from 9 (low of 17 and a high of 118, 7/9 below 100)
Handballs: 14.05
SC Avg when handballs equal/exceed 15: 115.3 from 10 (low of 102 and a high of 130, 3/10 120+)
SC Avg when handballs below 15: 87.92 from 12 (low of 17 and a high of 123, 7/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
Marks: 3.14
SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 4: 111.67 from 9 (low of 93 and a high of 130, 1/9 below 100, 3/9 120+)
SC Avg when marks below 4: 92.54 from 13 (low of 17 and a high of 123, 6/13 below 100, 1/13 120+)
Contested Possessions: 10.64
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 11: 111.92 from 12 (low of 89 and a high of 130, 3/12 below 100, 3/12 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 11: 86.5 from 10 (low of 17 and a high of 120, 4/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
Tackles: 6
SC Avg when tackles equal/exceed 6: 108.31 from 13 (low of 79 and a high of 130, 3/13 below 100, 3/13 120+)
SC Avg when tackles below 6: 88.89 from 9 (low of 17 and a high of 121, 4/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)
Clangers: 2.95
SC Avg when clangers below 3: 101.09 from 11 (low of 17 and a high of 130, 3/11 below 100, 3/11 120+)
SC Avg when clangers equal/exceed 3: 99.64 from 11 (low of 53 and a high of 123, 4/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)
Time on Ground: 76.41%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 77%: 107.4 from 15 (low of 79 and a high of 130, 4/15 below 100, 4/15 120+)
SC Avg when time on ground below 77%: 85.29 from 7 (low of 17 and a high of 118, 3/7 below 100, 0/7 120+)
Premium Career Stat Averages:
Disposals:
2016: 29.86
2017: 29.95
2018: 26.82
Kicks:
2016: 15.86
2017: 17.36
2018: 12.77
Handballs:
2016: 14
2017: 12.59
2018: 14.05
Marks:
2016: 5
2017: 4.32
2018: 3.14
Contested Possessions:
2016: 10.41
2017: 9
2018: 10.64
Tackles:
2016: 6.18
2017: 5.55
2018: 6
Clangers:
2016: 2.77
2017: 3
2018: 2.95
Time on Ground %:
2016: 80.36%
2017: 76.73%
2018: 76.41%
Disposal Efficiency%:
2016: 72.3%
2017: 70.9%
2018: 69.8%
Contested Possession Rate%:
2016: 34.23%
2017: 30.37%
2018: 39.13%
Observations:
Averages 110+ against 9 teams (Bris, Freo, Geel, Melb, NM, Port, StK, Syd, WC) with 7 pre-bye and 5 post bye.
5.6 win/loss differential with 2018 the only season since 2016 he hasn’t averaged 110+ in wins.
11.51 post bye/pre-bye differential.
25+ differential when disposals equal/exceed 27, kicks equal/exceed 13, handballs equal/exceed 15 and contested possessions equal/exceed 11.
Merrett is severely under-priced in 2019 due to a concussion-affected 17 in Rd1 and a slow start which yielded less than 20 disposals on 4 occasions. Before 2018 he had 47 consecutive games equalling or exceeding 20 disposals and 4 of his last 60 matches were below 20 disposals.
He is very durable and consistent evident by playing a possible 65 of 66 games in the past 3 seasons (missed one through suspension). Merrett averaged 110.37 from 43 matches in 2016/17 and 108.39 in the past 3 seasons excluding the RD1 2018 injury-affected game. Only 8 games below 85 in the last 3 seasons with 4 occurring in the first 8 rounds of 2018 and 22/65 120+ in the past 4 seasons with 4 120+ in 2018.
With the recruitment of Shiel this could possibly benefit Merrett as he could receive less attention from the opposition thus allowing him to return or improve on his 2016-2017 averages.
Verdict: Lock
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For me as well
Hasn’t left my side. Honestly can’t see much if any downside to him. Absolute Lock.
Isn’t he carrying an injury ?
Also known to struggle with a tag at times ?
Article was written and completed by late December before his injury and it was mentioned above about the tag concerns and whilst both are deterrents I don’t think it is enough to outweigh the upsides associated with the selection.
Compelling. Especially when you consider his TOG% and pts/min.
Unless he gets injured (and that applies to ANYone) he has to be rated as a “can’t lose” starter.
Great stuff Adam.
As author mentioned, with Shiel in the side may assit merrit. He is comming into prime age now. Lock.
Merrett……………………….
Or Steele and $32K
Saints will be close to bottom 4 ess close to top 4 more points for winners just my opinion though good luck
Merrett ! Use that 32k wisely.
I’d pick proven 110 scorer for only $32k
100% lock for me
Nobody concerned by shiels inclusion? Thats the big unknown for me and why he isn’t currently in my team.
Actually bullish about it, Merritt could run around free all year.
Locked and loaded!
In my starting team at present … one of a few since version 1.
His ankle is good and he is back in training, actually had a run in the inter-club practice match. Will be good for R1.
Has plenty of upside if he can improve his disposal … and Shiel wont impact him at all … just like he didn’t for Kelly, Ward, Coniglio and others … (hopefully Shiel’s poor disposal won’t rub-off)