Fade To Black

Written by Schwarzwalder on June 22 2018

Natopotato88 asked the question in the Polling Station of players fading out as the season wears on.  While it’s extremely hard to predict, and even harder to put into a ‘Poll-form’, we’ll open up the Forum to all Coaches.

 

Jack The Salamander‘ predicts a downturn for Brodie Grundy…….I’ll let him explain:

‘I was talking about his direct opponents, i.e. opposition ruckmen, not the teams he’s playing.

This point is easier to demonstrate if we categorize ruckmen into different tiers, based on their form this season:

A-grade: Gawn, Grundy, Martin, Naitanui, Sinclair (arguably), Sandilands (he hasn’t been posting big scores, but he doesn’t tend to concede them, either, so for our purposes we’ll call him an a-grader).
B-grade: Kreuzer, McEvoy, Nankervis, Witts, Goldstein, Ryder
C-grade: Lobb, Bellchambers, Jacobs (at least earlier in the – he’s likely to be a B-grader from here on out), Zac Smith, Rhys Stanley, Tom Hickey, etc.
D-grade: Whoever the Bulldogs decide to trot out each week, makeshift ruckmen like Apeness, L-plate ruckmen like Scott Jones, etc.

With that out of the way, we can look at some statistics:

Brodie Grundy 2018 averages vs ruck tiers:

A-grade: 104
B-grade: 121
C-grade: 128
D-grade: 143

Pre-bye opponent breakdown:

A-grade: 2
B-grade: 3
C-grade: 5
D-grade: 2

Post-bye opponent breakdown:

A-grade: 4
B-grade: 5
C-grade: 1
D-grade: 0

Projected post-bye average based on current averages vs each tier: 115′

 

Who do you see taking a tumble in the stats?  What is your opinion based on?  Has the player got a record of fading out over the 23 Rounds?  Showing signs of slowing down?  Carrying an injury? Let us know about it, Coaches……..

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27 thoughts on “Fade To Black”

  1. I think I might ask a question rather than provide an answer. I brought in Westhoff in Rd3 as a corrective trade (Lambert OUT). It has turned out to be a real positive move, but I have to say feel very lucky with his high output. I did this trade as it seemed Ryder’s injury was going to work in his favour with cheap HTA ts up for grabs, but with Ryder back he continues to outperform his last few years by some margin, and given his age wonder if the fun is about to come to a damning end. I simply won’t be able to afford such a luxury trade EVER, so will hold in the hope that he has a season that stands way above anything he has produced in the past.

    TU: no reason why he can’t continue his current output
    TD: given his age and previous years’ averages, he will surely fade to grey

    Great song, and i don’t want to tempt a disastrous fate!

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    1. With Ryder back he’s playing as a bonafide winger that can also go forward and score at times. With Port continuing to play only two outside players (Polec, Motlop) then he should continue his good scoring.

      Barry and/or Amon coming into the team are really the only risk to his role on the wing I’d say.

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    2. It’s funny you mention Westhoff.
      I rate him as a player but he was the first to come to mind when I thought of someone who’s output might drop off.
      Through no fault of his own, he is a very useful stop gap player who occasionally gets played in a high scoring role for a period but often gets moved to a team needs role which ruins his scoring.
      Absolutely no research behind this opinion.

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  2. Probably Lloyd he’s beast mode last few weeks has been nuts he’ll still be good for 80-100’s most weeks however. i own him too.

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    1. After his bye last year Lloyd only scored 1 ton and it was exactly 100. This was round 13. From that game he scored 90+ twice and 3 sub 80 scores.
      During SC Finals he had an output of 59,82,81 and 77 which is what concerns me. He started the season well so i am concerned he is good chance to repeat it

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      1. McVeighs return was his demise last year. Slow out the blocks but found some form the last 6 weeks, still good for 90-100 from now on I reckon.

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  3. For the record, I’m still expecting Grundy to be the number 2 ruckman. 115 points per week is still worth bringing in.

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  4. I don’t have faith in Mcdonald either. From 7 games he has score 3 sub 90 and 4 115+. His 115+ games came against Suns, Blues, Dogs and the Pies. From that the Pies are the only top 8 team and He also played Essendon and Saints round 6 and 7 when they were at the level of the Suns etc. and scored 86.
    Very inconsistent, and looking at the Dees last 6 games of the season they play Cats, Crows, Suns, Swans, Eagles and Giants. If he doesn’t score well tonight against Port i feel that will be a similar result in their last few games and his scores will fade.

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  5. this was a great idea Nato and Jack, thanks. I’m looking forward to gaining some more insight from here. With very few trades left I can’t afford to spud it up!

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  6. I think Cripps will begin to fade. He’s done so much heavy lifting for Carlton this year he looked broken by the time of his bye.

    I had him at least 107 average this year so he’s exceeded expectation with 111.7 to date, but with regression to the mean an average of 101.5 from here on out wouldn’t surprise me.

    For what I paid at the start, I’ll take his year to the bank!

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  7. Kelly v Treloar

    so i’ve done a comparative analysis of these two’s back half of season performances over the last four years. i’m hoping you’ll be able to see the graphs through the dropbox link below.

    if you can’t, it essentially says that Treloar tends to drop 2% in the back half and Kelly tends to increase 3%. That is a 5 point differential. Based on their current averages, Kelly should give a total of 1 125 pts to season’s end, and Treloar will give 1 087 pts to season’s end. How reliable this is I am not so sure (with only four year’s data) and the difference is a measly 38pts in Kelly’s favour. Taking into account Kelly’s recent injury, then is he really worth the risk?

    i went for Kelly and can’t reverse changes now that the round has started, but i thought i would share this for anyone who might still be interested.

    looking at individual seasons, Treloar has dropped more than 5% twice (including last year) and been static the other two, while Kelly has been largely static three times, with an 18% increase in output in 2015.

    here is the link: (obviously i can open it, but would love feedback to let me know if the broader SCT community can access it. it’s an open folder so here’s hoping)

    https://www.dropbox.com/home/Supercoach%202017

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  8. Coniglio is the one I’m a bit worried about dropping off. In 2016 his previously best year he had a great patches of form and then end the year with 5/10 scores under 100.

    Not sure he’s a real premo mid for the season but would need a luxury trade to move him on at this point.

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    1. Seems to go better when Kelly plays. Concussed yes, but his legs should be better for a couple of weeks off. I’m thinking he’s gonna be one of the positive surprises in the back half.
      I bloody hope so anyway!

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    2. yeh , not many maintain after a concussion ,
      saw Leigh Mathews kick 5 in the 2nd 1/2 after being knocked out in the 2nd Q once ,
      was a beautiful thing ..

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    3. I keep umming about the same thing…he’s been great, but does he get a gig ahead of J kelly or Treloar at the pointy end ? I think he will be a luxury trade for me if I can afford to go sideways and burn a trade.

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  9. In my opinion TMac will fade, Westhoff will fade, Hurn will fade, Crisp, Ed Curnow and Mitch Robinson will fade.

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    1. I’ll be happy if TMac fades and only averages 100 from here. Still got 90 v Port and really only played 3 quarters. Robinson my only other worry…was easy to hold him over the byes but he needs to get back on the park quickly ow.

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  10. i’ve got Mundy at F4/5. am more than a little concerned, having just looked at his last three years’ back half of seasons. it’s not pretty and given his age, looks like he might have started early this year.

    what do people think?!

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