2015 Byes



The Fallen Premiums – Defenders, PS 2014

by MJ on February 7, 2014

After coining the term ‘Fallen Premium’ on the site back in June 2012, it’s good to see it being officially recognised in dictionaries across the globe:

Fallen Premium [faw-luh n] [pree-mee-uh m] noun
An AFL SuperCoach player who has been referred to as a premium in the recent past, however their current market value is significantly lower than their intrinsic value, derived from historic output. This may be due to various factors such as: injury, lack of form, or being played out of position.

Jack Grimes $436,500 (2013 ave: 80.9, 2012 ave: 88.0, -7.1ppg) The Co-captain of the Melbourne Football Club will be firmly entrenched on many SuperCoachers’ never-again lists after succumbing to major injury in just about every season he steps onto the park. Bursting onto the SC scene with an average of 94.3 across 11 games in what was essentially his first AFL season back in 2009, Grimes was matching it with the best defenders in the game. 2010 saw Grimes average 91.8 before a hamstring injury in R14 against the Saints curtailed his season. A 90.8 average over his first 5 games of 2011 provided a handy start, only to break his foot in the early minutes of R7, ruling him out for the rest of the year. 2012 was a milestone season for Grimes, making it through 21 games, only missing R4 through concussion. Finishing off the season strongly, he managed an average of 106.7 in the last 7 rounds. 6 games into last season however, Grimes’ luck ran out again, this time with a shoulder injury that would bring an end to an impressive average of 99.6 points per game. At 24 years old, Grimes still has the potential improve IF (and we all know it’s a big IF), he can remain injury free. Priced at an average of just 80.9, he’s well undervalued for someone capable of producing solid scores when fit. He may have the nearest hospital on speed-dial, but comes with MID eligibility for the first time in 2014.

Paul Duffield $432,600 (2013 ave: 80.2, 2012 ave: 92.7, -12.5ppg) Preventing my team from a top 50 overall finish in 2011, the Duffman burnt me heavily with an uncharacteristic 5 week average of 43 at the end of the season. To my frustration, he quickly put those numbers behind him with a 92.7 average the following year, assisted by 118.7 in the last 6 rounds! Duffield plays his best footy flying across the halfback line and had his most prosperous season back in 2009 as one of the best defenders in the league with 97.4 points per game to his name. Restricted to more of a holding role last year, his SC performances suffered dramatically to the ghastly tune of 80.2 per match. How will he be used in 2014 you wonder? Duffield is one to watch in the NAB Challenge and would be value if used as the rebounding half back once more.

Beau Waters $402,200 (2013 ave: 82.9, 2012 ave: 100, -17.1ppg) Suffered another injury setback over pre-season to his shoulder, the same one that kept him out for the majority of last season. Would have otherwise been considerably undervalued for his potential points output, but is now a definite no-go zone.

Matt Suckling $312,200 (2013 ave: 0, 2012 ave: 82.6, N/A) Completing his first full season just three years ago, he quickly became known for his pinpoint left foot kicking. To the disappointment of many, Suckling didn’t play at all last season after a serious knee injury in the NAB Cup. Only just sneaking into contention for selection as a Fallen Premium with an average of 90.7 in 2011, Suckling represents excellent value if he can return to such an output. With just 69 games of AFL experience, a bit of natural improvement to his game may accompany his return, although it’s wishful thinking to expect strong returns straight away after so long out of the game.

It must be said that Fallen Premiums are relatively light on in defence to start this season, however the next edition will be the midfield. I think we all know there’ll be stacks of juicy selections to mull over, so keep your eyes peeled.

{ 9 comments… read them below or add one }

Nateo February 7, 2014 at 11:52 am

Suckling for me can’t go wrong

Grimes maybe on my dt seeing as 2 trades every round

Never again Waters/ Duffman

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Matteo February 7, 2014 at 11:57 am

Suckling only, grimes a maybe, but defenetly no Waters or Duffield.

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MJ February 7, 2014 at 5:32 pm

I’m with you there Matteo. There really isn’t too many undervalued premiums in defense this season, hence I couldn’t really select anyone with much confidence at all. It looks like you’re going to get what you pay for, unless you can pick that breakout player, of which I believe David Swallow would be the man who has the potential to do so this season.

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Matteo February 7, 2014 at 7:00 pm

That’s why I’ve loaded up with the likes of Mitchell/Bartel/Hanley/McVeigh. Suckling is a lock, I have been considering Swallow as well.

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BigRuss February 9, 2014 at 11:25 am

Andrew Swallow had his breakout in his 4th year too. Hopefully he can follow suit.

Defence is hard this year with Bartel, Walker, Mcveigh, Mitchell, Shaw, Hodge all quite capable of 100+ average. Days are gone where high 80s/low 90s are acceptable from defence i think. Potential to leak quite a few points now.

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quick February 7, 2014 at 3:22 pm

No love for Hurn? Should get a run through the mid-field quite often this year…

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MJ February 7, 2014 at 5:29 pm

Shannon Hurn only dropped his average by just 3.4 points last year (from 90.9 to 87.5). Can’t really qualify him as a Fallen Premium because he’s kept up a pretty consistent set of scores each season, with his highest average being 93.3 back in 2009. If he gets more time through the midfield like you suggest, then he’d be one to look at for sure.

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Don Cottagers February 7, 2014 at 10:04 pm

It’s good to have the Fallen Premiums back, MJ.

Like a warm meal when you go back to your folks place, just feels right.

Suckling is my only pick off this list though. Can’t wait for the midfield list, bring em on!

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Hugh G February 8, 2014 at 10:39 pm

McVeigh, Mitchell, Hanley are locked. With the possibility of adding Hurn/Grimes and either Suckling/Weller/Docherty. Depending on midfield strategy.

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