Father Dougal’s Strength of Schedule

Written by MJ on March 19 2015

We love it when someone bobs up and produces their own bit of research for the benefit of everyone. Father Dougal published this under Badger’s EPIC Rookie Review this afternoon and it was so good that it deserves to be recognised as it’s own post. What a champion! Take it away, Father!

I just finished up doing some strength of schedule work, and since early season strength of schedule can affect cash generation I thought I’d share it.

I took the standings from the 2014 season and divided the teams into 5 groups. (There were conveniently obvious breakpoints.) Average opponent got a 0, difficult opponents got a -1 or -2, and easier opponents got a +1 or +2. I’m assuming that variations will mostly balance out and that the very best and worst teams will not change dramatically in quality.

-2: Sydney Swans, Hawthorn, Geelong Cats, Fremantle
-1: Port Adelaide, North Melbourne
0: Essendon, Richmond, WC Eagles, Adelaide Crows, Collingwood, GC Suns
1: Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions. GWS Giants
2: Melbourne, St. Kilda

Then I took the schedule and added up the number for each team based on their opponents. I divided the season up into four 5 week groups, plus the week 11-13 byes. I’ve put the results below. The numbers on the headers are week. BB is before bye and AB and after bye. An “x” means the team has no matches before or after their bye. They are sorted by the week 1-5 totals.

Screen Shot 2015-03-19 at 5.24.21 pm

As far as good for rookies; the Gold Coast Suns and Richmond have a good first 5 matches followed by an awful 5. Collingwood has a great first 5 and decent next 5, while Adelaide is good up until their bye. GWS Giants and St. Kilda both are pretty good through their first 10.

There are some teams that have awfully rough starts. Port Adelaide has an awful start, although their schedule after their first 4 is nice up to their bye. North Melbourne and Geelong both have a rough first 5 and then average seasons after that. Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs have rough first 5s followed by an easy 6-10s.

Of course teams with difficult starts might be a source of fallen premiums. I’m wondering if I want Wines at the start of the season now, although in theory I’d want to keep him all year, but how far might his price drop…..

I was surprised at how different the totals are between different teams. There’s probably a lot more that could be figured out with more thought. I hope this is helpful.

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