First Glance 2019 – DEFs

Written by Schwarzwalder on January 10 2019

G’day Coaches! Welcome back to SCT for another big pre-season!

Since we’ve now had the official Team Picker program available for nearly a month (and SCTs version for a few weeks), I just wanted to get my first thoughts down on paper (or ‘cloud’ these days) as I scrolled through the names and prices for the first time.

The selections below are by no means ‘locks’ or certain starters, long way to go yet. Just my initial thoughts at this early stage of planning and strategic cunning 😉 For positive or negative reasons, these are the names that jumped out at me upon first glance. So let’s get started on the DEFs……….

Kade Simpson (CAR) $570k – I love the guy, he’s a SuperCoach King in defence but is coming off his most successful season. There’s every chance that he’ll be a Top6 DEF again in 2019, but he strikes me as too expensive to start with. Happy to wait for that first sub-70 score and his price will drop nicely…….

Matthew Suckling (WBD) $497k & Heath Shaw (GWS) $492k – Both players keep producing some decent scores despite age and possible change of team roles. They’ll score well at times during the season but I’ll be giving them a miss this time round. Personally I see better options for TOP6 defender and at cheaper prices.

Jeremy McGovern (WCE) $483k – I started with him at a similar price in 2018. Either he makes the big plays (how was his last qtr effort in the GF where he could barely move?  The one that led to Masten’s goal) and scores 120 or he’s quiet and just scrapes in a 70…..there is literally no in-between. He’d be a handy player to have as an early loophole option but I won’t be starting with him this season.

Jason Johannisen (WBD) $465k – We were all lining up to get him into our teams a few years back……then came the tags……then came the injuries…….then we were lining up to trade him out of our teams 😉 Averaged 94pts back in the Premiership year of 2016 but only played 13 games. Has had a better run with injury over the last two years, having missed only two games in that time. Did manage a 139, 113 & 156 in the back half of 2018. Could he climb back to a 95avg?

Tom Stewart (GEE) $463k – Was ultra consistent in 2018, building his average to 92 after 16 Rounds.  His injury-affected game in Rd18 is the reason he’s such decent value for this season. Can he take the next step to Top10 DEF in his 3rd season?

Connor Blakely (FRE) $461k – Scored well in 2017 when playing midfield & across half back in absence of Fyfe. Already been pointed out before over this pre-season but Blakely scored nine tons in eleven weeks in 2017. You would think that Neale’s departure would open up a spot for him in the Dockers midfield. Great value if he lines up in the guts during the JLT Series.

Zac Williams (GWS) $408k – I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Zac will be a popular starting choice for 2019……..my neck is sore from hanging it out so far 😉

Brodie Smith (ADE) $332k – He’s on a lot of Coaches’ ‘never again lists’ but still capable of racking up some good stats. Awkward price but will also be a popular choice for starting line-ups.

 

Who took your eye at first glance this season?  Do you see the backline as fairly clear-cut?  Or would you expect some more surprises in 2019?

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30 thoughts on “First Glance 2019 – DEFs”

  1. Nice one Schwarz!

    See Whitfield as my #1 pick. Massive ceiling, never misses a game, scored the third most pts of all those now with DEF status and is cheaper than Laird to start. Z.Williams (my neck is sore too). Lessens the risk to an extent with Whitfield. Think the two of them will be sharing HB/MID time so having them both, you get all the pts. The risk is that Adam Kennedy also gets involved in sharing the pts?! I’m willing to take it.
    Two Rd14 starters means I can’t start Laird as well. Bound to be Top6, but his scores seemed to be negatively impacted by Brodie Smith’s return late last year (despite their different roles), so will not risking starting him at that price.
    Won’t be starting Lloyd either at this stage as his role is still unclear. A calculated risk in the hope I can pick him up as a fallen premium.
    Other starting spot will likely go to Connor Blakely (or Sicily). I like Blakely, because I’ve read his big scores actually came off half-back. With Logue back, I expect this to free him up even more, when he is playing DEF. His mid-time in the past has actually produced lesser scores, but that is because he was playing a tagging/run with role. He won’t have that role in the guts this year (likely Banfield), so it SHOULD produce better SC output. The only risk I see is that Cerra gets (to share) the role.
    I see Lachie Weller (DEF/MID) as a smokie and I like Tom Stewart, and will watch them both.
    There are heaps of potential breakouts here, so maybe we should be going proven premiums across the board, I just can’t justify their prices!

    Potential top 6ers outside of the obvious (and those mentioned above) are:
    Witherden, Ryan, Short, Crisp (7th last year) and/or even Sam Mayes(PTA)!

    Great to see the proper writers back and looking forward to other people’s thoughts …

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  2. Great write up Schwarzy. Is the new kick out rule going to have an impact on the abovementioned players(particularly Simpson)?

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    1. Will be following very closely during the pre-season series. Hopefully it’s not too much of an overhaul…….

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  3. Love some preseason content.

    Agree with the above, finding it so difficult to make any plans at all when we don’t even know how defensive players will be scored!

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  4. Thanks Schwartz.

    Some very interesting reading.

    I will be keeping a close eye on Harris Andrews this preseason.
    He was very close to a breakout last year before his concussion.
    Maybe it was a purple patch, but he ticks enough boxes to be considered this year.
    I think Marcus Adams has been recruited to take on the bigger bodied forwards. This will hopefully free up Andrews to play a more attacking role.
    I will be watching his JLT form to see how Brisbane structure up.

    Thanks again I’m loving all the preseason input.

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  5. I’ll just leave this here..

    Do NOT go near burnman Ryan even though he’s kick in numbers may look juicy that bastard gave me hell last year.

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  6. Too much uncertainty with the rule changes to spend big in DEF. With the new kick in rules its entirely likely we see new players taking the kick ins which will shift roles and scores.

    Players that could be impacted beneficially include the likes of Wilson, Harbrow, Tuohy etc who aren’t far off full premo. Also Stephen hill is definitely worth watching through the JLT.

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    1. I agree, re: spending big in DEFs. Like our FWD line, trying to find those who are obviously underpriced and/or spending more time in the MIDs is much safer and will give us time to uncover who the genuine premos are. If you’re making money while you wait, you’re minimising your risk to the extent that it is possible.

      Tuohy is a WATCH for sure. Could get a freer role this year, especially if Jordan Clark (rookie) gets to play early … still a lot more time to see and learn before we have to decide tho’.

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      1. Tuohy would have to be close to a lock if they change the kick-in scoring the way we all think they might. He loves to send a long barrel down the middle of the ground. He also never misses games. He has had surgery over the offseason though, so keep that in mind if you’re thinking of selecting him on the basis of his durability.

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    1. We’ll need to wait until the JLT to be sure, but my gut feeling at the moment as a Carlton supporter is that Newman (and to a lesser extent Williamson) will slot into Docherty’s role.

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    2. It does but his price is 17 different kinds of messed up.

      I would be very careful about taking Simpson with Newman on the scene though.

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  7. As always, great contribution from the SCT writing crew, and excellent commentary from the community 🙂

    In addition to those previously mentioned, I’m keeping Wayne Milera, Callum Mills, & Andrew McGrath on watch through JLT.

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      1. Mills training with the midfield group. looking increasingly likely to play wing this year. I will be keeping a very close eye on him in the JLT.

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  8. Interesting discussion – I’m considering starting with 4 keepers !! … will be influenced by my decision whether or not to start 2 keeper RUCs and a mid-pricer in the middle. The DEFs are more predictable than the challenge of picking keeper FWDs at this stage.
    Will definitely start with 3 keepers – who will be driven by their Price and Bye. My locks are Crisp (R13), Williams (R13) and Whitfield (R14). My current thinking is to bring in Sicily for R13, Witherden for R14, and Laird for R15. I think both Laird, and Lloyd for that matter, will drop in price, so happy to wait. I’m with most on Lloyd … but have been burnt before by guessing those of his ilk will be impacted by new game plan and maturing team mates.
    However, I certainly will be watching which role Blakely is given in the pre-season.
    Also, if Geelong decide their rucks are shite (and they are) and run Blicavs ($405k), then there is potential there for some high scores and $$ to be made. He averaged ~104 last time he had that ruck roving role – back in 2015. and he is a better player now.
    Interestingly, I can’t see a single DPP finishing in the Top 20.
    I’m banking on Simpson, Hurn, Shaw, McGovern and Suckling to fall back a little to finish in the Top 10-20 band this year, replaced by the younger brigade.

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    1. I love Crisp as a SuperCoach player, but do yourself a favour and look at him as a cheap upgrade target rather than a starter.

      Why? He’s long been a slow starter, and a strong finisher:

      2015 average rounds 1-8: 86; round 9 onwards: 91 (a small jump, but a jump nonetheless)
      2016 average rounds 1-7: 74; round 8 onwards: 92 (jump of 18 points, or 24 %)
      2017 average rounds 1-8: 70; round 9 onwards: 90 (20 points, or 29 %)
      2018 average average rounds 1-7: 86; round 8 onwards: 100 (14 points, or 16 %)

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  9. No love for Jeremy Howe? He averaged 96.3 last year if you take out his injury affected 17 and has played 128 out of 132 games in the 6 seasons prior to 2018! He will be very high on my radar especially with Moore back in the team and Dunn & Scharenberg due to return midway through the season freeing up Howe in the backline. Had a good finals series too averaging a tick under 100 playing as a key defender.

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