Flavour Of The Week: Early Edition

Written by Chillo on March 20 2018

The Flavour returns in 2018, bringing you a succinct and forthright review of the Supercoach trade trends each week, and hopefully helping you out with those tough choices as the season develops.

Only two days (TWO DAYS!!!) from the opening bounce, naturally we have no trade data to speak of. However, what we do have is the Coaches Choice – who are the most popular picks, those dubbed “must-haves” by the wider SC community?

PlayerClubPositionPrice ($)Ownership (%)
Max
GAWN
MELRUC503,70059.9
Nat
FYFE
FREMID597,90050.9
Tom
DOEDEE
ADEDEF123,90048.2
Dustin
MARTIN
RICMID656,00048.0
Rory
LAIRD
ADEDEF550,80045.6
Sam
MURRAY
COLDEF123,90044.4
Timothy
KELLY
GEEMID117,30044.1
Tom
MITCHELL
HAWMID653,50040.0
Bayley
FRITSCH
MELFWD117,30036.0
Andrew
BRAYSHAW
FREMID198,30035.7
Nick
HOLMAN
GCSMID102,40035.1
Dom
BARRY
PTAMID117,30034.8
Isaac
HEENEY
SYDFWD/MID536,30034.7
Darcy
CAMERON
SYDRUC123,90033.1
Liam
RYAN
WCEFWD117,30032.1
Cameron
RAYNER
BRLFWD/MID202,80030.2
Christian
PETRACCA
MELFWD/MID433,30028.2
Jeremy
FINLAYSON
GWSDEF/MID123,90027.9
Michael
HIBBERD
MELDEF545,20027.5
Luke
D-UNIACKE
NTHMID189,30027.0

A few observations:

  1. With Petracca the only “mid-priced” option in the top 20, it’s pretty clear that Guns ‘n’ Rookies is still very much the strategy of choice for the majority of Supercoaches.
  2. Comparing this list with the one posted on this site in January (via the Herald Sun), we see that several popular early-season rookies have fallen by the wayside, with the likes of Garlett, O’Shea, Higgins and Ahern disappearing from the list.
  3. Coaches are generally loathe to take chances with injury-clouded players, e.g Naitanui and Birchall. Even the mighty Dangerfield has seen his ownership drop by over 10% in the past week.
  4. And if you haven’t got Gawn and/or Fyfe, you’re in the minority!

And at the other end of the popularity stakes, the Premium Points of Difference (>$500K, <5% ownership):

PlayerClubPositionPrice ($)Ownership
(%)
2017 Ranking
(aggregate,
in position)
Dylan
ROBERTON
STKDEF509,0002.36th
Daniel
RICH
BRLDEF502,8001.47th
Brandon
ELLIS
RICDEF502,5001.78th
Jeremy
HOWE
COLDEF517,6004.410th
Rory
SLOANE
ADEMID605,8004.96th
Marc
MURPHY
CARMID595,0000.98th
Taylor
ADAMS
COLMID591,0001.59th
Jackson
MACRAE
WBDMID587,8001.110th
Ben
MCEVOY
HAWRUC523,3000.95th
Todd
GOLDSTEIN
NTHRUC521,4004.69th
Jarrod
WITTS
GCSRUC518,3000.810th

Do you dare take on any of these decidedly uncool kids?

The Flavour will return next Tuesday, to look at the fallout from all the Round 1 action….enjoy the footy everyone!

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35 thoughts on “Flavour Of The Week: Early Edition”

  1. Petracca is still more popular than Devon Smith? Interesting, I thought that Smith would be a very popular selection after his JLT form…

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      1. A very minor strain. He will come into round 1 flying. A nice pod for me I hope I don’t want the headache later on if he pumps out two 130s first up.

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    1. It’s the $750,000 question!

      My take is that if Danger plays, then there are no injury concerns. Geelong wouldn’t risk their franchise player in Rd 1 if he was less than 100%. At the moment, he’s in my team, but with a contingency plan for a late out.

      I just think I’d feel sick if I left him out, then watched him go bananas in the first few rounds, unable to get him without burning a trade on one of my premium mids.

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      1. If he doesn’t play would it not make sense to take GAJ and just trade him for Danger when he’s back??
        Here is my rationale:
        i. He has been named to play
        ii. He has a major POD with only 4.5% ownership currently
        iii. He ALWAYS comes flying out of the blocks (uninterrupted pre-season or not), see stats below
        iv. same side as Danger, therefore will likely only rack up more SCpts in Danger’s absence
        v. I cannot see a better PPD (points per dollar) alternative, and finally
        vi. he’s back home at the Cattery, both happier and hungry

        STATS on G Ablett JNR – last six years
        Round 1 Scores (* denotes that he had an interrupted pre-season)
        2017: 114*
        2016: 139*
        2015: 119*
        2014: 140
        2013: 178
        2012: 139

        First three round average for the above same years:
        2017: 99.7* (up to 117 by Rd6)
        2016: 131.3*
        2015: 119* – DNP rounds 2 and 3
        2014: 147.7
        2013: 129.7
        2012: 154.7

        Admittedly, he may not go the distance in his old age, but if you are willing to lose a trade for Danger, knowing you’re going to score solid until then, I personally can’t see a better way.

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      2. It’s worth noting that on AFL360 last night Chris Scott stayed firmly on the fence about whether Danger will play in rd1, but then finished by basically saying that rd1 is not the end goal and there’s a whole season to consider.

        To me that sounds like they won’t risk it and he’ll miss.

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          1. What I meant was where are you going to get 700K from? Yes he will drop in price, but he won’t ever be cheap.

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            1. oh sorry, blonde moment.
              im holding back a few $$$ and hoping certain mid pricers go up in value. yes there is a chance it could backfire but at the end of the day thats what this game is about. taking risks and hoping they pay off. also im playing for league wins and bragging rites over my mates.

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              1. Fair enough. I only ask these questions because I tried the same trick with Pendles a couple of years ago. I did get him eventually – in round 19, after he’d already passed 2000 points for the season…

                Don’t be like Chillo.

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              2. I would just start him if you’re playing for league wins. Danger will be good to go when league games start.

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    2. He’s just too expensive for this little black duck. Hasn’t been in my calculations at any point this pre-season. He’s a gun and a jet combined, I know that. But no Danger frees up A LOT of cash to tinker with the team elsewhere. I’m crossing my fingers that’ll he’ll fall a little bit at some point so i can nab him.

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        1. Nice analogy.

          However, I’m more concerned by re-injury.

          He’s had back problems for a while, and as we all know, often leads to hamstring injury. His hammy might be fine, but he could do it again.

          This might also have a flow on effect in that he might go back to long bombing more, which means more turnovers due to Geelong only have one marking target.

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  2. Think you can take a punt on Dangerfield in the first first few weeks although if he goes gangbusters like that 9 week roll from round 9 last year you have t o waste two trades and have a recovery plan. It must be remembered that he averaged less than 120 in the first 8 rounds last year and with the SuperCoach salary cap reduced from $250 million to $245 million he is overpriced approximately $12000 in comparison. He virtually will have to average around the 140 mark to maintain his starting price.

    For the price of Dangerfield and two rookies ($1 million dollars) you could say go with Coniglio, Petracca, and a rookie for the same value. You would probably lose only 40-50 points per week (280 as captain+60+50=390) vs (90+90+50+110 captain = 340.)

    Well worth the risk for huge reward if one of your mid priced options hits the mark together with Dangerfield getting an “even start” out of the blocks.

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    1. Hi Mate,

      Where did you get the info about the Supercoach salary cap being reduced?!?! My ears perk up at the idea of a new data source!

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      1. Downloaded player prices from an internet SuperCoach site early team planner and spent majority of yesterday updating and analysing. I think that there were 27 big retirements from last year who would have been priced in excess of $400,000 this year. Basement rookie prices have remained the same, however, the upper level rookie prices are down compared to 2017. The magic number has moved from $5440 to $5498 = 1.07% increase only.

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      1. Be careful using last year as precedence, he did cop a Roughead knee to the ribs which affected him for a few weeks. To pick up Danger cheapish, you’re hoping for him to play injured again, and for his injury affected games to occur sometime between rnds 3-10. Any earlier and the poor scores won’t stay in his price cycle long enough, any later and the damage has already been done. The chances of this are really low, although he does have another date with Roughy in rnd 2…

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  3. Can somebody be kind enough to please tell me dangers % in teams… obviously lower than 27% which is crazy

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  4. If Danger plays does he get reduced minutes as a precaution? If you select Danger and he plays Round 1, pray for a close contest because a smart coach sits him out in the final quarter if the Cats have a comfortable lead.

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    1. I would have thought a smart coach just wouldn’t even play him if he has considered sitting him out as a precaution. Missing him for 1 round is better than a 4-6 week gap

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    2. As a cats supporter I’m more than happy for danger to miss rd1….. and rd2 if needed. Nothing to be gained by pushing a sore hammy at this end of the season.

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  5. I suppose another trick (but does use an extra xfer) ..if he plays R1 and has a poor R1/2 you could always trade him out for a riser then buy him back when his price stabilises later?
    Means you could (potentially) correct a R1/2 big riser and still then have the cash to rebuy Danger at a much lower price..

    And if he starts off 160 160 you are in the box seat compared to those scrabbling around to find the funds from who knows where..almost like an insurance policy just in case he starts off really slowly.

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