Flavour Of The Week – Rd 3

Written by Chillo on April 2 2019

The second week of trading, and arguably the most crucial of the entire season: it’s Corrective Trade Week! It’s such a fine line between desperately trying to conserve those precious trades, while also avoiding getting lumped with a great, big, fat, useless, smelly, insipid, underperforming premium. Hmmm I may have over-adjectivised there…

Here are the most popular trade targets, as of 12pm, Tuesday April 2:

1.   Tom Rockliff (PTA, mid, $405 900)

+ Rockliff has dug through his closet, dusted off his old snout and is doing footy as only Rocky can. 44 possessions in round one was followed by 37 last weekend, enormous! And all for only a few quid over 400K.

+ In his second year at the Power, Rockliff has attended the most centre bounces of any Port mid this year. In a team that boasts a midfield of Boak, Ebert, Gray and SPP, it’s Tom that has become the centrepiece.

+ Throw in his gargantuan 170 in JLT2, and Rockliff has a 3 game average of 141. Are you watching closely?

Minus:

– 2018: Calf (3 weeks). 2017: Dislocated shoulder (3 weeks). 2016: Hamstring (3 weeks). 2016: Calf (2 weeks). 2015: Ribs (twice, total of 6 weeks). The moral to the story is, make sure you have decent bench cover in the mids!

– After cruising to 90 points at halftime, he copped a Setterfield tag in the second half against the Blues, and could only manage a further 26. The return of Wines may change things up, but will that be for the better?

2.    Tim Kelly (GEE, fwd/mid, $505 800)

Plus:

+ Five forwards have recorded back-to-back tons to start 2019. Kelly has picked up right where he left off after his remarkable debut season, in fact he may be even better. (In case you’re wondering, the other four are Boak, Daniel, Gunston and Dahlhaus).

+ It seems pretty obvious by now that Kelly was the answer to the F3 question we were all asking in the pre-season. No surprises that Geelong top the ladder when they have all their guns, including TK, firing at the same time.

+ It’s an oft-repeated rule of SuperCoach – pick as many elite midfielders as possible, on all lines. Kelly fits the bill for your forward line.

Minus:

– Melbourne did try to tag him for a while on Saturday night, with James Harmes running with him. Even in a team featuring the Dangerwoodlett connection, it’s a possibility that Kelly receives more attention this year.

– He has the popular round 13 bye. Can you afford to have him in your team alongside the likes of Danger, Heeney, Grundy, Gawn, Oliver, Treloar, Neale and/or Lloyd???

3.    Travis Boak (PTA, fwd, $478 000)

Plus:

+ If you predicted the second-highest scoring forward after two rounds would be Boak, congrats! Back in the engine room and loving it, Boak is averaging 34 disposals and 121 points so far in 2019.

+ Huge POD value at only 3.1% ownership, although that is sure to change this week! At $478K, he is also excellent value for a player of his scoring potential.

+ Super durable, Boak has only missed a total of three games in his past six seasons, while averaging 95.8 in that time.

Minus:

– It’s possible that Boak will see a reduction in his midfield time when Ollie Wines returns, and thus could struggle to retain his current scoring rate.

– At 30 years of age, can Travis keep up this pace for the entire season? He did spend the large majority of 2018 on the half forward flank, so it’s not inconceivable he could return there at some stage.

4.   Matthew Parker (STK, fwd, $117 300)

Plus:

+ No flash in the pan, Parker posted his second impressive score in as many weeks, relying on quality disposal and defensive pressure to post 89 from 11 possessions and five tackles.

+ At his budget price and with seemingly excellent job security, Parker is undoubtedly a must-have for your forward line, and possibly even a consideration for a spot on the field.

+ Projected to rise nearly $90,000 this week. Really should be in close to 100% of teams by next weekend, if people are paying any attention at all.

Minus:

– Parker has scored heavily during his first fortnight in the top flight, but you shouldn’t expect that to continue. The opposition become a fair bit tougher from here for the Saints.

– Based on his JLT form, Parker’s scoring has a very low floor, and even now placing him on the field still poses a fair deal of risk.

5.    Scott Lycett (PTA, ruc/fwd, $441 200)

Plus:

+ Score of the round went to the ex-Eagle, who compiled 23 possessions and 34 hitouts on his way to 167 points. Seems to be relishing his role in new surroundings at Alberton.

+ Decently priced and with that coveted swingman status, Lycett shapes as one of the few viable candidates for the ruck cover that every coach hopes for every year.

+ With Paddy Ryder chugging along at less than optimal fitness, big Scotty is taking up the slack and being handsomely rewarded for it.

Minus:

– He scored 69 in the first round. Just in case you’d forgotten. And just another reminder – you don’t get last week’s points if you bring him in now.

– In eight seasons, Lycett has only twice managed more than 12 games, and never averaged more than 83. Yuck.

#6 – 10: Darcy MOORE (COL), James WORPEL (HAW), Willem DREW (PTA), Lachie NEALE (BRL), Connor ROZEE (PTA)

Most traded OUT players this week: Isaac HEENEY (SYD), Dustin MARTIN (RIC), Toby GREENE (GWS), Noah BALTA (RIC), Callum MILLS (SYD), Jack RIEWOLDT (RIC), Marty HORE (MEL), Jordan RIDLEY (ESS), Devon SMITH (ESS), Steele SIDEBOTTOM (COL) 

Most popular trades so far this week:

Which of these popular picks are you bringing in this week? (up to two choices)

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...
7
0


Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom

25 thoughts on “Flavour Of The Week – Rd 3”

  1. Great Write Up Chillo!

    Flavour of the Week is always one of my favourite articles on SuperCoachtalk as I am always interested to see what the popular trades of coaches are.
    Sometimes you are left scratching your head though!

    17

    0
    1. Thanks TDA. I’m more open to trading premiums at this time of year than most people – I seem to remember at least one winner from previous years making a judicious sideways move early on.
      But then I see that over 1000 coaches have traded out Coniglio this week, and I don’t know what’s real anymore…

      4

      0
  2. Great stuff Chillo. I voted that ‘I’ve completed aced my starting team’!

    Of course I haven’t but am not gonna trade out Heeney or Dunkley and certainly won’t be chasing Lycett, Boak or Rockliff’s points. Those three may well have all posted their highest score of the year already! You don’t get those points. What you do get, is what they score from NOW!

    The only one of those I don’t have that I will likely want is Tim Kelly and I might want Worpel (if he carries on and proves he’s consistent and likely top6-8). I didn’t start Fyfe so sadly I have to let him go now, but he’s the only one I may come to regret.

    On current numbers, my rookies and midpricers should all earn more money AND quicker than those above, so I SHOULD be able to pick them up later for less money/effort and with more data/scores to better inform my target decisions.

    I have, and expect both Heeney and Dunkley to improve, Heeney markedly, from here til season’s end, and both to be top10. I might be wrong, but just say …

    Kelly rather than Heeney had copped an ankle in JLT2. Kelly played FWD a fair bit in Rds 1 and 2 as a consequence and averaged 76. Meanwhile a fit Heeney got the MID-time we all expected and was averaging a smidge over 100.

    Would you trade Kelly OUT for Heeney this week?!

    I’ll leave it there.

    16

    0
    1. I’m not saying I am supportive of trading out Heeney, but is the reasoning he is playing up forward a result to his ankle injury or just a case where Longmire isn’t playing the young guns (Heeney and Mills) in the mid like he said they would. If this is the case and Longmire sticks him up forward for several more weeks, isn’t this the same scenario with Billings last year who was a F2 lock in preseason and didn’t play midfield and burned most coaches.

      Overall it is something that I am personally hoping to find out if it is just an injury thing or if Longmire is using Heeney as a second forward option to Buddy, thus limiting his midfield time.

      9

      1
      1. There is talk on Twitter that Horse is considering playing McCartin, Buddy and ANO (can’t remember and can’t find the tweet now) up forward which SHOULD mean Heeney plays MIDs. I get the injury is a concern, but I’m not trading him out when having to bring him back in later is likely. Horse has also mooted that Heeney is playing forward more as a consequence of the ankle.

        With all due respect Billings is not, and never will be in the same class as Heeney.

        Heeney may pump out below-par scores for another week or two, but unless I hear otherwise (eg the injury is more serious) I’m holding tight for now.

        Put it this way, Sydney’ll likely keep losing the midfield battles (incl. to the Blues this week) and games, until he is forced to make the changes we all deem necessary.

        Dunks is attending as many CBs as most of the Dogs, but a bit like Steele, is struggling to find the pill a bit. Both will come good.

        5

        0
      2. I am not sure if I can go through the head trauma of another Billings scenario.. Heeney to Kelly looking likely. Worst case I can pick up Heeney again for 100k less if he starts snapping again… fingers crossed

        2

        2
        1. All Saints is certain a trade is as good as $130k…to trade Heeney twice, you need to save $260k if he is right.

          1

          0
          1. Giving it some serious thought.

            Heeney down to Worpel banks $135k, which is about on par for $/trade.

            Heeney, if he averages 85 over the next 4 weeks, will drop to somewhere around $450k (a loss of $75-80k). Not beyond the realm of possibility he drops a lower score during that time and falls even further.

            Once he turns the corner and looks to be moving better, he can be traded in as a fallen premo, somewhere around $70-$100k short of his true value for the remainder of the season. I don’t think Matt Parker will continue to pump out mid 80s once the Saints come up against some tougher opposition, so he’ll probably plateau around the $320-$350k range around the same time, and can be the player traded out for Heeney.

            It’s essentially two trades to turn Parker into Worpel, with the added benefit of better scoring in the immediate future.

            ***All contingent on whether we think Heeney can bounce back SOON or if he’s a month away from full fitness and midfield time***

            1

            0
        2. Comparing Heeney to Billings is a bit rich! I will only trade Isaac if he’s not named this week – straight swap to a fit and firing Kelly is too good to ignore. But otherwise, it’s a hold.

          2

          0
  3. Heeny out.. Drew shifts forward. LDU now in the mids. Upgrade Ryan to Lloyd.

    Is LDU or cousins better option to the byes.?

    6

    0
    1. I’d put Cousins and LDU on about par for points and JS. LDU should make more cash but Cousins likely has more durability (simply cos he’s been in the system longer). Both good picks, but given neither are likely keepers, I’d probably go LDU for the extra $$$s. Just.
      Good luck!

      5

      0
  4. Hey guys,

    If Balta or Hore aren’t in this week i have the cash to trade them for Darcy Moore, but it will leave me with almost no cash left for future trades / upgrades.

    So would you spend $100k extra on Moore in the hope he increases in price enough to cover the trade? or save the $100k for future upgrades?

    TU: Trade hore / balta for Moore
    TD: Keep the non playing rookies and $100k for future trades

    10

    4
  5. Okay kids, 17 of you voted “someone else I’ve mentioned in comments”. Vicwood was the only one who did so.
    Come on, speak up! We won’t bite, I promise!

    2

    0
  6. Have taken on Rocky at the expense of Mundy.
    To do this, I had to swap Mundy with Drew.
    I now don’t have any DPP in the midfield.
    I currently have Ridley, Hore and Scott awaiting confirmation of selection.
    My point is this panic traders,……mathematics.
    I can trade Ridley and up grade to either eg. Newman or Worpel (DPP swap) but I’m < 10k short to use the other two.
    But if Scott plays this week and does ok, does that possibly mean his price will grow enough in proportion to Newman and Worpel to cover the difference? Comments please……..

    0

    0
    1. Assuming they score their current averages, prices should increase by:

      Worpel (ave 101) – 22k (price increase)
      Newman (ave 108) – 30k
      Scott (ave 64) – 40k

      1

      0
  7. Im going Dusty to Bont, bit sideways but looking at a long term keeper as opposed to a stepping stone like Rocky, Worpel or Libba.

    2

    0
  8. Moore and Rocky are undoubtedly the value combo here this week. Started TK after having seen him train over the summer and it paid off. Was very surprised he wasn’t more popular selection.

    0

    0

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *