Flavour Of The Week – Rd 4

Written by Chillo on April 9 2019

I had a bloody good week last week. The weather was that mid-Autumn sunshine that’s my favourite, work wasn’t bugging me as much as usual, I saw the trailer for the upcoming Joker movie and it rocked. The Swans even won a game (OK it was only Carlton, don’t rain on my parade). And for the cherry on top, my Supercoach team actually did good. So I think I’m in the mood for some lecturing, maybe even a little sermonising. Sorry Father D, this is just for today, alright?

Last week the most traded out player was Isaac Heeney, and the most traded in was Tom Rockliff. In fact, this time last week, over 1200 coaches had traded Heeney for Rockliff. This is despite the common knowledge that Heeney is a recognised premium forward carrying a minor injury, and Rockliff is a recognised burnman, and all those warnings about not trading away premiums this early without a very good reason, don’t chase points, it’s a marathon not a sprint, trades are oxygen, blah blah blah. So what happened here? Where’s your head, Agent Kujan? Take care coaches, this is not a drill!

But if you have Dusty Martin, then you trade him. As fast as you can.

Here are the most popular trade targets, as of 12pm, Tuesday April 9:

1.   Lachie Neale (BRL, mid, $646 300)

+ After making the longest migration the game has to offer, Neale has somehow trumped all previous performances so far this year. Averaging a stupendous 38 possessions and 148 points per game so far in 2019.

+ In case you haven’t heard, the Lions are flyin’ right now, and Neale is right in the middle of everything that they do. Currently the only player in the league to rank top 10 in both contested and uncontested possessions.

+ It bears repeating: in the past four years, Lachie Neale has scored more points than everyone who is not named Dangerfield. And still 78% of teams don’t have him!

Minus:

– He wasn’t cheap to begin with, but Neale’s opening blitzkrieg has now made him hideously expensive. Where are you going to get all that dough from without jeopardising the rest of your team?

– The focus for opposition taggers when facing the Lions has almost always been Zorko, but surely it can’t be long until the sights are redirected towards Lachie.

2.    Tom Liberatore (WBD, mid, $379 600)

Plus:

+ It’s a beautiful thing when a 300K mid scores 150, but even more so when that bloke is coming off two knee reconstructions. Libba was dominant in the clinches against the Suns, compiling 30 touches (22 contested) at 80%.

+ That’s back-to-back tons for the Dog in the middle, who is also averaging over 6 tackles a game. Most importantly, he looks to be really enjoying his footy these days.

+ Pre-surgery, Liberatore put together back-to-back seasons of 105+, so he’s shown he can be a premium midfielder.

Minus:

– Can Libba keep up this form for an entire season? He has missed a lot of footy, and even if he stays healthy, it’s a long year.

– Can you count on him as a keeper? No doubt he is priced below potential value, but it’s two trades down the gurgler if you don’t plan on having him in your team at the end.

3.    Connor Rozee (PTA, fwd/def, $259 800)

Plus:

+ One of the more remarkable rookie performances in recent years came from the number 5 pick against the Lions. Rozee almost single-handedly kept the Power in the fight with 21 touches, five majors and 116 points.

+ Although he went up more than $70K last week, Rozee’s BE is still in the basement at -48, and he is projected to gain another $60K against the struggling Tigers this week.

+ If you’re one of the 44% of teams with Darcy Moore, then putting Rozee at the opposite end of the ground sets up a potentially useful DPP swing.

Minus:

– Have you missed the Rozee boat? His price tag is now beyond rookie territory, and you’re effectively buying an in-form mid-pricer. That probably means he won’t be a permanent in your team…

– His pre-season form was nothing to write home about, in fact it was awful. And he won’t kick bags of five every week, so you probably shouldn’t expect a repeat of last weekend’s score any time soon.

4.   Sydney Stack (RIC, mid, $102 400)

Plus:

+ Speaking of sparkling rookie performance, it was another triumph for the pre-season supplemental selection period (that really needs a catchier name) in the form of Sydney Stack. 17 possessions, eight marks and a goal for the WA teenager, raising the ton with 108 points.

+ The casualty ward at the Tigers has just put up the “house full” sign, and with Dusty also set to miss a fortnight through suspension, Stack’s short term job security seems to be water-tight.

+ As a PSSSP player, Stack comes with a super-economical price tag, and the associated low risk.

Minus:

– I’m trying to remember the last time a $102K player scored a hundred on debut. Midfielder too, I think. Name was something like Gosh Jen, or Posh Blend, or Joss Gren?

– All dad jokes aside, there is absolutely no good reason to go early on this one. Wait and see what Stack does this week.

5.    Lachie Whitfield (GWS, def, $569 600)

Plus:

+ And you were worried he was going to play half forward! Whitfield continues to do whatever he wants, and mostly that consists of getting the footy. 42 disposals and 12 marks against the Tigers for 152 points.

+ At this early stage, Whitfield and Jake Lloyd seem to be the must-have defenders in 2019, with the two already opening up a 20 ppg gap to the next best backman.

+ Actually, it’s laughable that Whitfield is even available as a defender this year. He just runs and runs and runs and runs and runs. Everywhere. From siren to siren!

Minus:

– Although he has improved his contested game, Whitfield is still predominantly an outside player, and therefore prone to the occasional tag.

– GWS face the table-topping Cats this week at GMHBAFCOZSTR, and it’s highly doubtful Chris Scott will allow Lachie anywhere near the same latitude that Dimma did last week.

#6 – 10: Shane MUMFORD (GWS), Travis BOAK (PTA), Rowan MARSHALL (STK), Charlie CONSTABLE (GEE), Dom SHEED (WCE)

Most traded OUT players this week: Dustin MARTIN (RIC), Justin WESTHOFF (PTA), Nat FYFE (FRE), Tom ROCKLIFF (PTA), Will SETTERFIELD (CAR), Michael GIBBONS (CAR), Jamie ELLIOTT (COL), Josh DUNKLEY (WBD), Jayden SHORT (RIC), Toby GREENE (GWS) 

Most popular trades so far this week:

Which of these popular picks are you bringing in this week? (up to two choices)

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47 thoughts on “Flavour Of The Week – Rd 4”

  1. Good on you chillo , hope your good start to the season keeps up.
    What do you think aboout laird being traded by over 1200 teams already , it is probably to whitfield or lloyd but still??

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    1. Thanks Bruce. I wouldn’t be trading Laird, but I understand why people are. It’s a bit like the Grundy/Gawn problem last year; sure, Laird is going okay but you’re giving away so much by not having one of the big two in your team. Can you really afford to be giving the others such a head start?

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      1. I can see your point Chillo, I went Laird over Lloyd,but fortunately also went Whitfield. Lloyd just keeps racking them up, working on how to get him in asap.

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        1. Also, as I already have Zac Williams (and view him as a keeper), it would help my bye balance if I swapped Laird for Whitfield, rather than ending up with both of them in my team. Still, going sideways rather than upgrading isn’t ideal, especially when the player being traded out isn’t going *that* badly.

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  2. Why are people trading out Fyfe and Rockliff, especially Fyfe? None, one, maybe two weeks at most. Surely you keep them.

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    1. Concussion can have lasting effects on scores, then of course there’s the games they’ll potentially miss. These were top tier knockouts.

      It’s concerning.

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  3. Thanks Chillo, great write up. You were the legend I was referring to who beat me on the weekend,and that was beating a score of 2448 ! Unfortunately Fyfe went down which prevented me scoring 2500+. Speaking of which,if he doesn’t play this week and knowing that most players need 4-5 weeks to get back to their best after concussion would you trade Fyfe? Only saying this cause we know what he is like, the likelihood of him bleeding cash in the next 4 weeks is strong. He hasn’t played more than 12 games in a season for god knows how long and when the inevitable LTI is he going to be 150k loss? I can collect some cash 100k if I go Heeney now?

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    1. Thanks Joestar. I didn’t pick Fyfe for lack of durability, but concussion is just bad luck. I would probably trade him, but to someone I was sure would be a premium mid. Macrae would be ideal, but I really like Rory Sloane this year.

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  4. I’d love to see a thread where everyone can vent their bad luck stories…with rage trades, and now fyfe/rocky, I’m betting there are some doozies.

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    1. I traded in Rocky for Mundy, and Newman for Ridley, only trades done.
      I have Rocky, Fyfe, TKelly and Moore with injury concerns.
      But I “No complain”, I just gently rock backwards and forwards on my new chair, with my old favourite Saturday Night Fever jacket on backwards.

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  5. Agonizing over which FWD rookies to play this week. Need to field 2 of the following:

    1) Drew v Richmond: Did Wines push him more into the FWD line last week?

    2) Petruccelle v Freo: Think the Eagles will pump Freo and perhaps he gets onto the end of a few goals?

    3) Parker v Hawthorn: Has only scored well against teams with poor backlines and when the Saints have bombed it into the FWD50 a lot, don’t think that’ll be the case this week?

    4) Setterfield v Gold Coast: Hopefully he doesn’t get put on tagging duty, suspect he’ll be free to run around perhaps?

    Leaning towards Drew and Petruccelle atm.

    Thoughts?

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  6. Nice review Chillo. Difficult to sit and wait..the trade button sooooo tempting. Stack my next trade if he is named for game 3.

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  7. Love your lyrics Chillo. And many congrats on your lofty position. Richly deserved. I look forward to whipping your ass presently. 🙂
    Can’t tip the Swans at home either. Sorry

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    1. Thanks AS. I’m tipping the red and whites again this week, but in truth I’ll just be happy if 44 players get through the game without doing themselves any harm on the diabolical SCG surface. Thanks, NSW Government!

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  8. Thinking of upgarding C Oliver and S Coniglio to L Neale and P Cripps

    T/U do the trade.
    T/D leave them alone

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    1. Greedy use of two trades.

      Can’t tell you it won’t net you plenty of points, as I think it will, but it’s two trades and $130k gone, so you need to consider if that’s a fair price to pay.

      Reckon Coniglio and Oliver can nudge their averages back up around 110. Doubt Neale continues to average almost 150, and Cripps 130. They probably both drift back down to 125.

      2 trades and $130k for 30 points a week? Captaincy considerations?

      Not an easy call to make. Could be genius or could cost you later in the season when trades are running low.

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    2. Another alternative could be to just do one of them. Perhaps keep Oliver, and get one of Cripps/Neale?

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  9. Just on Rozee and his not showing anything in the preseason… it reminds me of what I said about Parker in Scoring Anomalies last week: are we guilty of reading too much into the performance (good and bad) of rookies in the JLT? I know it seems like a silly question given the lack of an alternative, but it’s still something to think about. Parker, Rozee, even Bailey Smith – all are going well, and none showed anything in the JLT. Meanwhile, JLT posterboy Setterfield has played one and a half decent games for the year.

    Is there a better way?

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    1. It’s a good point, but there’s not much else to base decisions on when it comes to rookies. Setterfield was a former number 7 draft pick and looked like he was going to have a central role in the Blues midfield, at least in the early stages of the season. Meanwhile, Rozee was an impact player who was going to battle for a spot in the loaded Port forward line. It seemed pretty obvious who was going to be the better choice, didn’t it?
      I still think Setterfield can lift his game and be a decent cow for us, but right now the Rozee owners are laughing.

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  10. Hi Team!

    Unfortunately, as a Tiges man, I’ve decided to trade Dusty out this week. Is JPK a good option? Owned by 1%, consistently plays 20+ games and proven star in the past however Swans mids are always risky. If it’s too much of a risk I’ll be trading M.Crouch in.

    I’ve also decided to trade out Simpson for Hurn. Waste of a trade or a smart correctional trade?
    Would love to hear some thoughts.
    Thanks team!

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    1. Hey Architect, JPK is one of my favourite players ever, but I think there are better options for your midfield this year. Who are the other def and mid premiums in your team?

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      1. Hi Chillo!

        Macrae, Cripps, Neale and Treloar round out my mid premos. I was also considering TKelly if he comes up fit enough for the weekend.

        Down back I have Crisp and I guess you can nearly count Williams.

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        1. Ok, if you’re trading Simpson, I think you have to try to find the cash to get to Lloyd or Whitfield.
          There are a few more viable budget options in the mids, check out Hot Sauce’s midpricers review. Good luck!

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          1. Perfect! Decided on Sheed and Whitfield leaving me with $77k, hopefully they both keep firing.
            Thanks for the help and great write up here too!

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  11. Am I the only one who thinks ppl have missed the boat on Rozee? 260k for a 19 yo. That’s crazy. So you’ve either got to spend cash to upgrade a rookie or dg a premium. Chasing points. I think ppl are overreacting from the poor forward rookie output this week

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    1. Agreed. He’s not a keeper, so if people wanted to bring him in, last week was the time to do it. That ship has sailed, now.

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      1. Not a keeper yet… If forwards or second tier backs don’t impress he could be around for a while, even bench cover.

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  12. Had a good Rd3, ranked 2751 overall.

    I’ve only used one corrective trade so far and am playing for overall, so I’m happy to be a little aggressive with trades early.

    Thinking about Brodie Smith down to Rozee then using the cash to go Jack Steele to Jake Lloyd via dpp.

    I have Libba at M6 at the moment, would become M5. I’ve changed my opinion on him and now view him as a keeper, and therefore I see Jack Steele as occupying a mid spot I would eventually want for Lachie Neale, Nat Fyfe or Clayton Oliver, all of whom I don’t currently have.

    This trade enables me to field a mid rookie at plus 10 ppg over a defence rookie and Lloyd likely to score approx 30 ppg than Steele, who has a really defensive mid role, and hasn’t taken the next step since last year.

    Rozee is also likely to generate $120k over the next 2 rounds whereas Brodie Smith probably only about $40k tops. A lot of slow burn rookies on other lines makes Rozee’s quick cash gen very tempting.

    Sorry for the essay – I think I’m really trying to convince myself that this trade is worth breaking the golden rules of trading early without LTIs and chasing points.

    Would really appreciate any other coaches feedback on my thought process and whether they think this is worthwhile.

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    1. Would normally recommend against……however….if you’ve used just one till now then it’s probably the last chance to perform these corrective trades.

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    2. Hey Tommy,

      Not a bad aggressive trade if you’re going for overall, however if Rozee maintains his current average (89) it’ll take til after R7 for him to make an extra 120k on his current price. If he averages 75 he won’t make another 120k til after his bye.

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      1. That’s the big if… he’s scored the ton at the right time for his rolling average though, so he’s got another 3 games to score big to keep his value ticking up.

        Having said that, the more I think about this trade the more I feel like holding…

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    3. Highly doubtful that Rozee continues scoring 100’s. How often do you think he’ll be collecting 20+ possies and kicking 5 goals?

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  13. Love what you’ve done with the Flavour, Chillo. Well done on the ranking, too (#352)!! Very impressive…….

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    1. Thanks Schwarz. I tried a new tactic this year: following the advice of the SCT community. It was a bold move but seems to be working so far!

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  14. Order of trade in priority? (if you don’t have them)
    I came up with: Danger (You started without danger really), Libba, Lloyd, Neale, Cripps, Grundy, Boak, Whitfield, T Kelly, Gawn

    Thoughts? Didn’t count rookies as you should have looked into that last week. Obv not looking to trade all in asap as rookies need to moo.

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    1. Don’t feel Libba is worth it if you didn’t start with him, unless perhaps you’re trading out Dusty or Fyfe. Although Libba still has plenty of money to make, he’ll need to average 110 until the byes (his best average ever) to make $150K, and then its still a trade out. History suggests the chances of him being a keeper based on total points or average, is very slim. Only played two full seasons out of eight, and only the last 39 of a possible 91 games.

      I also think Boak is a bit of a trap. He’s only averaged over 100 twice is twelve years, and most recently 5 years ago. And that was while playing as a full-time mid in his prime, and not a 31 year old veteran. He may end up as a top 10 forward because he’s durable, but I wouldn’t be moving heaven and earth to bring him in. He throws up a lot of 70s and 80s, so you’ll be able to get him cheap throughout the year.

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