Are you wanting to share some stats with your fellow SCT Coaches? Need to get their opinion on a certain player? Need to discuss a breakout option? Or just wanting to join in some footy banter? This is your thread………
1
0
Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom
I’d be wary of starting Stef Martin this year …
Stef Martin is welcoming the challenge of Archie Smith for his lead ruck role http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-12/stef-v-archie-lions-starting-ruck-position-up-for-grabs
Throw in hartlett and bennell too. Reports on both at afl. com
From a supercoach draft perspective, rucks get quite interesting after Goldstein (who I have a clear #3). Throw a blanket over the next 4-6: Martin, Ryder, kreuzer, jacobs, nank….mummy???
I have pick 4 in our league and am desperately hoping one of the big 2 is still available
Danger dilema.
Everyone seems to be gung ho on Danger as a forward. While his dpp is invaluable, I’m most likely to start him as a mid.
The reasons are several.
1. He would have to replace one of Smith, Heeney, Gray, Wingard, none of whom would fit into my final mids line up.
2. The cash spent is of no consequence whether he’s forward or mid.
3. By starting Danger as a mid, and subject to injury, its possible and quite likely that this strategy saves at leat one trade
4. Very few mid dpp’s that would be in finals team…Danger provides great flexibility. If not Danger for mid dpp, then its the likes of Mclean Menegola etc…
My two lines are currently
Mids
Danger, Cripps, Neale, Dusty, Merret, Setterfield, Gibbons, Stocker (Foley, Bewley, T Watson for c loop)
Fwds
Smith Heeney Gray Wingard McAdam Cavarra (Bines Kreuger)
All rookies subject to review.
Any comments ?
Hey mate
I’ve toyed with that too for a while and I’m not sure there is a right or wrong answer. My advice would be to re-read FD’s Slow-Picker thread and FT’s first comment. That way you’ll make plans for either eventuality, with Danger either MID or FWD, when the decent rookies are finally named for Rd1.
History suggests you’d be better served with him in your FWD line given the predominance of decent MID-cows and points versus FWD ones.
Hope that helps?!
Sound advice as always AS. The difficulty I have still remains that as my ream stands, I reckon I have 4 top ten fwds, and five top ten mids…both subject to debate. I am only interested in bringing in ubers from hereon….the Olivers, Macraes and a few others.
So, If I move Danger forward….
1. Who do I drop of the four mentioned…all dpp’s
2. Who do I bring into the mids for a similar price (want to keep my small bank), who I can feel sure will NOT need to be traded later for the Olivers/Macraes. I recall your article suggesting atrade is woth $100k
Some viable m/f rookies would be great…not holding my breath
On another note..I’m sure you will make the LoeC…I’d love to be in the same league !!!
..that would be team…not ream !!!
Have a spot for you Wighty if you want it.
League 583945.
Hey Wighty,
I have no problem starting Danger as a Mid, but so long as he is destined to finish the season as a Fwd.
As an example and minus Tom Mitchell, the top 9 priced Mids are-
Macrae, Danger, Cripps, Oliver, Fyfe, Kelly, Neale, Treloar & Coniglio
If you choose the top 8 as they are above (as your finished midfield) and keep Danger as M2 all season, you cannot have Coniglio, whereas if he either starts or at least finishes in the forward line, you get another gun Mid. I am certain that Coniglio will score better than the additional forward you will have because Danger is in your midfield. BTW on the example above, Tom McDonald is No 7 in the forward line on price (Danger is No 1) so effectively it would be your potential Tom McDonald vs your opponents potential Coniglio.
Hopefully this makes sense and apologies if I am barking up the wrong tree here mate,
You are spot on, I’m pretty sure he plans to move danger fwd. Also starting danger in the mids let’s you trade in 4 of the top mids as opposed to 3 while having less chance of starting a uber premo who spuds it up I. E, Merritt zorko etc last year.
Excellent TOF…see below. I think I should have kept quiet on this !!
Lol sorry, I’ve considered it aswell. Just don’t know which fwd to capitalize on.
Bit harsh calling merrett a dud last year..played three games when he was in gaga land. Huge finish to the year.
In context. Trading him in would have been a lot better than starting him.
Indeed…I did start cogs and d smith though…this game is al least 50/50 luck/skill
I was lucky enough to get on Merrett at the right time last year. I would still happily take your Robbie Gray, find another $20k and turn him into Merrett instead !!! I had Gray last season and he has been great for S/C over the years but now spends most of his time in the forward 50.
or similar I should say as you already have Merrett (oops !!)
Hass, you make perfect sense, and what you say about danger ending up fwd is my objective…effectively 9 prem mids and 5 prem fwds. I want to get him fwd without burning an unnecessary trade…..this strategy allows for a final midfield upgrade when danger is swung fwd to replace a nice fat onfield cow hopefully.
Wighty, I have the same strategy. Danger is in my mids and my forwards are Heeney, Mundy and Dunkley. Once I work out which premo midsized want I will move Danger forward.
Good to read all the solid reasoning behind this strategy…..M.
Thanks mate. I seem to have started quite a discussion.
You have mate. Apologies, but this is my busiest time of year with work and simply don’t have time to put the stats together to back up what I wanna say.
Shortened version:
Yeo is a set and forget for me.
Start Gray over Wingard, but acknowledge the fact that you’re likely gonna want to trade him before his sore body restricts him to more and more time FWD (ie start neither)!
A trade is worth c $130k (I’ll explain later, but the original post did come with a caveat, “it’s not that simple”) and
I hope to get an LoEC spot, and if we’re facing off, all the better. 🙂
Looks like you’ve prompted a really productive discussion anyway. SCT is so good huh?! Speak soon
I’m just waiting for All Saints to blow my idea to the schizenhaus with his Pythagorus theory and abacus !!
And I’ll be waiting to give it its own thread 😉
Everyone in this discussion has brought up relevant points and i too don’t believe there is a right or wrong answer.
I agree that starting Danger as a mid allows you to see what other premo mid is more likely to finish top 8 before bringing him in rather than starting him (Merret being a prime example as mentioned here.)
The reason i would be starting Danger as a forward is because i simply believe that a premo mid would outscore a premo forward (unlike the like of Allsaints i don’t have data to back this up this is simply my opinion). If you believe that starting Gray will not lose you points each week then there is no problem starting Danger in the mid. But if you are going to lose points every week by having another forward premo over a mid premo (such as Gray VS Neale) then this makes waiting to bring in a clear top 8 mid premo irrelevant as you are already behind those you started this player or a likewise premo.
I feel its more a disadvantage if you were starting Gray over a Mid Premo such as Neale, Oliver, Fyfe, Kelly etc. However if you were only missing out on a Matt Crouch or someone around that price then i say go with your gut and start Danger in the middle.
My mid consists of Cripps, Neale, Yeo, Dusty and Merret and theres simply no way id take any of those out for Gray or Wingard. Just my two cents.
Makes good sense Zac, and it goes both ways. If i shift Danger fwd, i drop one of heeney, menegola, smith, mundy. I cant then replace that player with a macrae or oliver because of price.
No right answer….just go with the gut feel.
Think Dangerfield must be initially started forward. Only 4 forwards went 100+ in 2018 with the highest average being 101. A further 14 players averaged in the 90’s. – 18 in total.
Compared to that of the midfield only players excluding Mitchell, 27 players averaged 100+ with 8 going 110+ and a further 19 players scoring in the 90’s – 46 in total.
Think their is more scope for possible reward in being able to add an extra mid than fwd in picking up say a Merrett, Sloane, Martin, Yeo or whoever fits your budget than trying to nail say the four forwards at the start.
I have McLean for exactly that reason..
Damn you rockliff, you foul tempter you.
http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-13/i-passed-the-powellpepper-fitness-test-rocky-ready-to-rumble
No TOF. Just NO!
What’s the big deal about Anthony Miles?
He’s a big deal…lol. good stepping stone straight into gold coast middle, has a history of averaging 90.
A Miles:
53 matches between 2014-2016 for an avg of 95.28 (14/53 below 80, 31/53 below 100, 10/53 120+)
Averaged 23.53 disposals, 11.21 contested possessions and 4.26 tackles a game with a contested possession rate of 47.11% and a TOG% of 80.15% during that period.
6 matches between 2017-2018 for an avg of 73.83 (3/6 below 80, 4/6 below 100).
Averaged 19.5 disposals, 8.83 contested possessions, 4 tackles a game with a CPR of 43.81% and a TOG of 70.67% during that period.
In the 2 seasons Miles has averaged 95+ he has had more then 80% TOG (2014= 81.83%, 2015= 84%, 2016= 74.63%, 2017=70%, 2018=74%).
He is the one player doing my head in. However, in the end I will be passing. I’m only interested in prem mids that unless injured or long suspension do not have to be traded. …..a cost of $130 k according to All Saints.
At present my prem mids are Danger, Cripps, Neale, Martin, Zerrett. One of them would have to go. Sure, bringing in Miles would allow cash elsewhere, but it looks like there is going to be enough low price mature rooks to generate the cash for upgrades later in the season anyway, and I dont think Miles can get the 110ppg+ that he would need to be a season long keeper, so I’ll keep the trade that I think would be needed on him at some stage.
If anyone is interested in doing some early scouting, Carlton is hosting Hawthorn in a non-JLT practice match at Princes Park next Thursday (the 21st) at 4 PM.
Take any observations about Carlton’s midfield setup from the game with a grain of salt, however, as walk-up starts Cripps and Fisher will both miss the game, with their AFLX to take priority.
With all that being said, barring unforeseen circumstances, I will certainly be there, and will try to take notes if possible. If I notice anything interesting I’ll be sure to post it here.
Great stuff Salamander. Was hoping it was gonna start a little later so I could go. Will be attending STK’s intraclub on Sat 23rd and will also report back with any relevant SC news.
Am also going to try and attend the COLvMEL scratch game on the Friday.
we have danger & heeney as locks in my opinion up forward but after those two who else? mundy grey dunkley smith menegola? i don’t like there unknown job roles and price for a return of a 90-100 avg. to me feels your paying overs…
I am feeling the worpedo is an option with Titch out & wingard under an injury cloud surely its james stepping straight into that midfield.
He averaged 72.9 last season with limited opportunity.
I have kept F1 and 2 locked so far (Danger and Heeney), F3 currently is Mundy. He’s a POD (only in 2% of teams so far) and word is he is taking Neale’s role in the midfield so should improve on recent averages. But I’m prone to change and he may become Devon Smith or Dunkley. Hadn’t considered Grey to be honest but no reason not to.
Also i think there is one out n out midfielder at the doggies who is as hard as a cats head and thrives on the contest and a hard ball and won’t get thrown forward and go missing like i expect dunkley, mclean & even bont too.
LIBBA – pray to the gods that they keep him fit can average you 90+ and make 150k and a stepping stone to a fallen premo with little cash used.
the doggies will bounce back this year and i feel of the midpricers he is the one to have or atleast watch through JLT. Miles will have to win his own ball in a BAD side and they will be on the end of some huge losses this year which means lack of points to go around GC not sure his quiet the lock people are making him out to be.
They’re saying he’s looking good and I’m tempted, but at the moment my M5 is Taranto (as I am also hearing good things and I feel he’ll do well to fill the gap left by Shiel) and he may switch back to Miles too. Not sure I can fit Libba in and I also have Walsh in there at M6 – not so much from a rookie/cash cow perspective but again, hearing good things and he might be the Tim Kelly keeper of 2019.
Keen for JLT before I lock anyone in though …
Degoey.
http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-15/star-pie-jordan-de-goey-helped-off-the-training-track-with-leg-problem
DeGoey cleared of major damage.Moonboot for the next 7 days.
Brodie smith and jade Gresham(12 guns 2 other players)
Or
Fwd premium and defensive rookie(13guns)
GRUNDY
http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-18/finally-good-injury-news-for-magpies-as-stars-return
VERY Intersting piece on the new 6-6-6 Rule. And lots of yummy data. Gotta love data 🙂
New statistics reveal that Richmond will need to adapt to new rules more than any other team http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-19/why-666-rule-could-force-tigers-into-a-radical-shakeup
TU: Ward
TD: Sidebottom
Comment: Zerrett
I’m hoping one of our Guru’s might see this and shed some light (AllSaints, Thommo etc).
Is anyone considering Callum Mills? Obviously everyone this time of year is ‘training the house down’, but the potential change of role, hanners gone, the high draft prick and coming back from injury is really intriguing me…
^^ Who am i kidding, we are all guru’s at SCT
Has recently been said by Sydney he’s too important down back, so probably maintains his average there abouts.
Oops never mind it was speculation.
Dizzle.
My take on Mills has a changed a bit.
At first when I heard he was training with the midfield I thought he could be worth a look. Then reality set in. He probably won’t be in at too many centre bounces. With his pace and marking ability I see him more on a wing. Wingers don’t usually score that well in SC. Not like true midfielders anyway.
His last full season (2017) he averaged 73.3
Before he got injured last year (R9) he averaged 79
For him to “Breakout” ( become a keeper) he would have to lift his average by 16ppg minimum.
After all the footy he has missed last year , I’m just not sure its possible. At least in the first half of the season.
Williams has at least averaged 93.9 before ( 2017) and is $21K cheaper.
Maybe he will explode in the JLT ,and I will have to review my thinking. But for now, its Williams over Mills for me.
Thanks FT, perhaps my one eyed Sydney and loathing of those across the bridge approach is really what’s attracting me at the moment, although that may be as good a reason as any!
McGrath(is ess worse lol) , if you want a break out pending jlt.
Spot on FT. As a general rule, I feel if you need to ask the question about those priced at $400k+ who haven’t yet proved themselves, then the answer is probably no.
Grundy is the only player who STARTED above $400k in the last three years who made enough money for a trade, ie became a keeper.
There maybe one keeper in that bracket this year, but there haven’t been more than two (from that price) in 7 years! I’d have to put Taranto and Milera at the top of my ‘likely list’ for 2019, but don’t forget that some years there are none!
So, I think you’re much likely better off going Premos and Rookies, who are either stonewall keepers or will generate sufficient cash quickly enough to pick them up later. With the new rule changes, I think it is even more valid as an approach.
Good luck whatever you decide!
agree AS with your comments re premiums and rookies
….has anyone (or can it even be done?) involved with SC ever analysed, say the top 10 or perhaps top 100 finishers, over a five -10 year period, to examine whether or not they began with either 13, 14, or possibly 15 premos (or fallen/coming back from injury)… just interested
Since I’ve played the winners have always:
– Had a template starting team
– Gone guns and rookies, with the exception of couple of exinjured fallen premiums
– Traded in the early bolters who ended up season keepers
– Traded hard for the rest of the season and cashed out on rookies early
– Escaped the more common owned (20%ish) premium injuries
Thanks Hutta.
Great insight.
Now its down to picking those 1/3 Midpriced / Injury priced Premo’s that actually deliver points per $ better than a on- field rookie in their place!
Great stuff Hutta.
That’s what the Mid-priced Madness piece was s’posed to be about, but Hutta’s managed to cover it in three lines!
What that analysis also told us though, is that of the last 14 to be worth it (ie increased more than $130k or became keepers) only 3 had a starting price above $323k. Add those facts to the previous data then maybe we’re looking in the wrong place?
The two I’d pick this year from those additional criteria would be from Kent, Mayes, Roberton and Moore. Not necessarily in that order.
Another point worth noting is that RUCs have by far the highest propensity (ie likelihood based on number of players by position) more than twice as likely; then FWDs, DEFs and lastly MIDs (with DPPs attributed to the relative weaker SC-value position).
Interesting (to me anyway). Stats don’t lie but as I’ve also said before, they can be read in any number of ways. In the meantime, I’ll keep trying to find a better one.
My two blurbs above aren’t mutually exclusive, they’re in fact complementary.
So if you think there will be a genuine breakout (eg Milera), then there is an almost 97% chance that the next one will be a sub-$300k starter.
Agree…the only two mid prices I’m considering are roberton and libba.
Moore ?? An injury prone kpp…no thanks..even with dpp. Joey is only some 40k dearer.
Thank you. Much appreciated
The 2016 winner started Johannisen (418k), B.Crouch (306k), Robinson (498k), Hall (428k) and Wells (243k). At a stretch Wells is the only “fallen premium” in that lot – from 3 years prior, as a mid, he averaged mid 90s, 5 years prior was his last 100+.
Also went with big no-no’s in starting expensive rookies – namely Weitering (220k), Dea (183k), Mills (211k), Kennedy (187k).
Gresham?
Lloyd, Coniglio, Sicily?
Has the Herald Sun stopped running Perfect 9? I can’t find a link to it anywhere in the new SuperCoach interface.
appears so
🙁
Gee I would like to see SC introduce something like the use of a wildcard or freehit as played in EPL fantasy
This would make it too easy in supercoach. FPL is so much different with price rises, unknown fixture blanks etc that if supercoach had a wildcard everyone would end up with the same teams.
The fun aspect about supercoach is how people differently navigate their way through trades and end up with differentials due to players they can afford and fallen premiums.
I personally think everyone should have 1 emergency trade for the year taking from their 30 trades. For example once per season you can use 3 trades on a round or 4 during a bye round. A once of only per season costing you 100k to use it.
Picking a break out player with any certainty is basically impossible as has been discussed.
So after some thought I’ve come to the conclusion why try, if you pick the wrong player especially one with low ownership your behind the pack.
I think you should always go for a break out player every season, but a break out with no downside. So instead of trying to pick who will boost their average from 70 to 100. Why not back in who will go from 100/105 to 120. If you choose wrong you still get a 100 ave player. Think macrae last year. So instead of trying land a 100 ave player try to land a 120ave guy instead. Also the upside is you can confidently choose 2-3 players to hit that level knowing if they are the wrong players you still get 100+ players as opposed to 70+.
Thoughts?
100% agree. The midfield is a prime example to look into this. Very rarely will the top 8 midfielders be the same as it were the previous year as someone like Macrae as you mention will breakout into the elite category.
I feel like so many people chase last years points and therefor loadup on all the 600k+ midfielders including all of Oliver, Kelly, Fyfe, Macrae etc. Not saying any of these are bad picks but by selecting 3-4 of them you are ignoring these players who go to the next level (as you mention like going from 100ave to 110-115 ave).
Brayshaw/ Taranto ?
Hi folks,
Not quite sure where this fits into the feeds.
Just playing around with some silliness before the serious fantasy season starts:
These teams each fit under the supercoach Rd 1 salary cap so could start.
The first team all have 4 letter surnames, team 2 has 5 letters and team 3 has 6.
Team 1 (4 letters)
Hurn Howe Shaw Ryan Bews Hore Idun Wigg
Fyfe Gaff Ward S Ross R Gray Hall Hind West Bell I Hill J Ross
Gawn Lobb Fort
Boak S Reid S Gray Boyd Wood Chol Rose Foot
Team 2 (5 letters)
Lloyd Laird Crisp B Smith (Ade) Clark McKay Jiath Keane
J Kelly Neale Beams Wines Gibbs N Jones J Atley Foley B Smith (WB) B Scott Golds
Ryder Witts Sweet
D Smith T Kelly Acres Caddy Rozee D Moore (Haw) Tarca Bines
Team 3 (6 letters)
Sicily Hurley Savage Milera Hanley Garner Tohill Watson
Cripps Oliver Martin Parker B Crouch T Thomas Hately Bewley Wilson Wagner Carter
Grundy Jacobs Hunter
Heeney Breust McLean De Goey McAdam Larkey Walker Hayden
Please tear them apart or suggest better ones.
Haha, and I thought I’d been spending too much time on SuperCoach already… but you Sir… you take the cake 🙂
Dare you to go with one of them!
Starting to warm to JRiewoldt as my F3. With lynch playing full forward jack will be CHF roaming through the middle more . I just feel he can take his game to the next level.. more opportunity for possessions marks possibly tackles and score involvements hopefully bringing in some consistency to his scores & game..
Anyone else thinking along the same lines?
SCOUTING REPORT: CARLTON VS HAWTHORN PRACTICE MATCH, FEB 21.
Carlton 8.5.53 def by Hawthorn 12.5.77
First, a few things to note:
– I missed the first quarter.
– Because I left home in a rush to get to the ground, I didn’t get time to print off teamsheets/playing lists for the two clubs. When doing this kind of thing, it’s helpful to be able to put names to unfamiliar numbers.
– In a similar vein to the last point, I normally like to take a radio with me when I’m doing this, because professional commentators can identify the players much faster and more accurately than I can. Because this was not an offical match, there was no commentary.
For the above reasons, the report I will bring you from next week’s JLT opener between Carlton and Essendon will be much better and more detailed.
Now that we have that out of the way, some observations….
I’ll start with what I think are the most important takeaways from the game, after which I will I’ll provide a dump of my remaining quarter-by-quarter notes for anyone who’s interested.
——– THE IMPORTANT BITS ———
* The two sides only kicked five behinds each, so it was difficult to get a proper gauge of the kickout situation, but I did notice two things:
a) Both of these teams are sticking with dedicated kick-in players, rather than letting the nearest player take the kick-in (as Brisbane has hinted at doing). I was on centre-wing, so couldn’t usually see the backs of their jumpers, and had no commentary to help me identify players more effectively, but the guy taking most of Carlton’s kick-ins looked a lot like Kade Simpson (although I also saw Plowman take one). I’m pretty sure the guy taking Hawthorn’s was Sicily. Both seemed happy to take advantage of the new play-on rule, but it didn’t appear to have much downstream effect. Which brings me to….
b) The new kick-in rules, including the 10-metre rule, don’t seem to have had much impact. The teams started their presses five metres back from where they had previously, but they were otherwise structurally identical to previous years. They seemed to be about as effective, too: the last few years have hardly been the forward-50 intercept fests of the press’ early years (2009 to 2011 or 12), with the ball instead tending to find its way to the half-back line via a long kick or a couple of swift short passes, with the outcome of the resulting marking contest dictating the play from that point on. It’s early days, but this year looks to be no different.
* Speaking of rule-changes, 6-6-6 does not appear to have had any real effect. Goals from centre clearances were no more common than usual, and, structurally, there was no effect at all on general play, with Hawthorn still playing spare numbers behind the ball, and stoppages looking no different to previous seasons. And no, the game wasn’t any less congested than before. As to the team’s structures at centre bounces, Hawthorn tended to cluster its forwards towards the 50-metre line before spreading after the bounce (often to the wing or top of the centre square). They persisted with this until they started winning consecutive centre clearances, at which point they played deeper so as to take advantage of this ascendency. Carlton, by contrast, tried to spread its forwards out, and played them fairly deep, probably with the intention of trying to force as many one-on-one contests as possible.
* As to the teams’ styles more generally:
** Hawthorn: Their ball movement is the same deliberate, kick-mark, keepings-off stuff they’ve been doing for years. Lots of backwards kicking. Lots of switching they play across the ground, not only in the backline, but also as high-up as the half-forward line. They did show at times, however, that they are capable of moving the ball very, very fast if the opposition isn’t defending properly. Defensively, they employed a rolling zone, but they also played one-on-one at times, too, switching between them as necessary. I’m curious about the mechanics of how they do this – my gut feeling is that they’re probably starting one-on-one and then spreading, but I’ll have to watch them properly next time to be sure. Anyhow, as you can probably guess from the above description, Alastair Clarkson hasn’t changed.
** Carlton: Brendon Bolton, on the other hand, has. Taking inspiration from the women’s team (or perhaps just trying again after attempting and failing to do it in the early rounds of last year), Carlton has swapped out its slow, stop-start ball movement for a fast, run-and-gun style. They’re doing this through a combination of overlap running and forward handpassing, and long kicking. They showed at times that they’re still capable of playing a slower, possession-retaining style when the can’t go fast, but the intention is clearly to play on wherever possible. They were keen to attack the corridor, but not obsessively so. They seemed to place a lot more importance on maintaining non-stop longitudinal ball movement than the latitude at which that happened. One thing to note, though, is that although they’ve moved on from the ultra-high possession style of yesteryear, they haven’t gone completely the other way and adopted a chaotic, Richmond-esque ultra-low possession style. Instead, they seem to be striving for controlled speed, with the emphasis being on trying to get the ball up the ground as quickly as possible without turning it over. As to the defensive side of their game, the Blues seemed to be employing a sagging, switching one-on-one defence, which can look an awful lot like a zone if you don’t know what you’re looking at. Perhaps best described as being one-on-one with zone-like features, it’s not a particularly original or unusual tactic, but it’s a very sound one: properly executed, it combines the best aspects of one-on-one and zoning, whilst mitigating many of the worst defects of both. One thing that was very noticeable was that when the opposition was moving the ball forward, the Carlton players didn’t fold back anywhere near as aggressively as they have in previous seasons, instead electing to keep more numbers ahead of the ball (and further ahead, too), so that they’d have something to kick to on the rebound. Speaking of rebounding, for all their newfound boldness, Carlton didn’t try to exit D50 via the corridor as often as you might think. They were happy to punish the opposition if they had left the corridor unguarded, but most of the time they exited defensive-50 via the wing or boundary line, trying to centre the ball up if they could, but not worrying about it too much if they couldn’t – like I said before, they were more interested in longitude than latitude.
* Walk-up starts Cripps and Fisher were both absent from Carlton’s lineup today, with their AFLX duties taking priority, so any observations about the look of Carlton’s midfield should be taken with a grain of salt. With that being said, if he was on the field and didn’t play in the midfield with Cripps and Fisher absent, it’s very unlikely he’ll be playing there when they are, so it’s worth taking note of who *was* playing there: SPS, Dow, O’Brien, Kennedy, Setterfield, Walsh. Charlie Curnow spent some time there, but still mostly played forward, as did Jack Silvagni, who also played back, forward, and wing. I’m not sure how much time Gibbons and Cunningham spent in there (in the former case I wasn’t even sure what number I was looking for – this is where a teamsheet and a radio come in handy).
* As I said before, despite playing some of the game in the midfield, Charlie Curnow was still playing primarily as a forward. I’ve said a couple of times on here that I can see two ways for him to become a premium forward this year: a) spending a substantial chunk of time in the midfield, or b) Carlton improving to at least 2017-levels of competitiveness. With such limited midfield minutes despite the absentees, it seems unlikely that a) will be happening, at least at the start of the year. There’s still a good chance of b) happening, and the faster ball movement should definitely help him as a forward. I don’t think he’s cheap enough to justify the risk of starting him, but I’ll be watching his form in the early rounds of the year with great interest.
——- END OF IMPORTANT BITS ———-
Those are my most important observations from today. They also happen to have covered nearly all of my notes. For those interested, I’ll post the remaining notes on which I have not touched below:
* Much to my despair and dismay, Dale Thomas is still being played in the backline.
* As a Carlton fan, Garlett can be both amazing and incredibly frustrating to watch. His one-touch pickups, pace, and evasive skills are electrifying, but his decision-making and disposal often leave much to be desired. He was playing in defence today, probably due to the aforementioned pace and evasiveness, where he caused a lot of turnovers. At one point he even drew a bronx-cheer from the Carlton crowd when he finally hit a target. Perhaps he’d be a better fit in a forward pocket?
* If anyone was at the game and is wondering what all those announcements about there bing no kick-to-kick were all about, I have the answer: the guy responsible was in a room directly behind where I was sitting, talking to someone else on a walkie-talkie. They were just testing (and calibrating) the PA system. Why he felt the need to say there’d be no kick-to-kick at three-quarter-time is still beyond me, though… I don’t think there’s ever been kick-to-kick at three-quarter-time!
* Harry McKay is turning into an absolute beast. I’ve got a feeling he might just be ready to explode. I’m not saying you should start him in Classic, but he could be a handy late pick in deep draft leagues.
Let me know below if you have any questions about the game.
More reports on the game:
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-21/young-blue-walsh-firms-for-r1-debut-after-scintillating-display-
https://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/2019-02-21/blues-show-glimpses-in-scratch-match
https://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2019-02-21/hawks-impress-in-practice-match
Quote from Gawn at afl.com. re practise match against collingwood, without Grundy.
“It didn’t impact on my game time. I played mostly ruck and actually didn’t go forward at all”.
Gotta love it….AFLX tonight. First chance to see if my huge pre-season was worth it. Record low skin folds…..reckon I’m good for raising the elbow at least 20 times tonight !!
Don’t want to go to hard early though…its a long season !!
After a bit if SC draft advice…
Draft is tomorrow – I have pick 4. I’m guessing danger & Grundy will be 1 & 2. I’m thinking if Gawn is available, I’ll take him at 4 (I don’t buy into the whole Preuss will take points off him idea). If he’s gone, I’m thinking Cripps…alternative would be fyfe, but he’s body is not quite reliable enough.
Any thoughts out there…
*No captains in the league.
Cheers
I had pick 4 in my league, went with Gawn. Grundy, Danger were 1&2, #3 was Titchell someone musn’t have been there and it defaulted so I was lucky to grab Gawn.
Not asking which players, but does anyone have an f3 yet that there completely sold on and are entrenched in their team if playing?
TU-yep
TD-nope.
Any updates on Devon Smith’s guns (bicep injury). He’s my #3 if fit
Tossing up between Gray (underpriced if playing midfield), Mundy (should play midfield, but for how long?) and Dunkley (who knows where he’ll play this year), and I have no clue which to settle on.
Just grab one til fill the spot mate and then watch JLT closely and make the call then.. I currently have TKelly but his just warming my F3 till JLT because I don’t really know who I want…
If I had to pick from those 3 though probably be Dunkley just on his age & doggies improving on 2018
TU: sloane
TD: Angus Brayshaw
Couple of SC relevant observations from yesterday’s Crows v Port almost under 23 pracky match for anyone interested.
1. Parking at Thebarton Oval is a root!! Missed most of the first quarter.
2. Brad Crouch started slowly but ended up with 25 possies, mostly contested. Played all game.
3. Willem Drew comes strongly into calculations for Ollie’s early spot, Duursma is a goer and will get a chance early I’d say, and Butters is clean and sharp.
4. Stengle and M.cAdam had 7 snags between them and applied shit loads of pressure. Be hard to crack the Crows forward line however.
5. Based on yesterday, Reilly Obrien is not going to pressure Sauce early.
6. Tom Doedee worth a spot in your backline if you are prepared to risk the second year blues. If not classic, definitely Draft. Intercept marking whizz.
7. Chayce Jones is quick and did a couple of good things but I’d say needs more time. Ned McHenry runs and tackles and flashed in and out, and at times looked the goods, but still, cracking the Crows top 22 won’t be easy.
8. Ryan Burton struggled in the first half and didn’t look settled till he went back.
9. Connor Rozee has class and footy smarts plus, but at the price I reckon he’ll struggle to score decently on a consistent basis, although he is probably right up there for R1. For those looking at his DPP may be worth it?
10. Ben Davis ($123,900 fwd) looked really good for a lot of the game. Smooth, fast and good kick. A good upgrade target if the Crows decide to give him a shot at any stage. Been around a couple of years, so might be down the pecking order.
I’m thinking how good a nice ruck would be !!!
Just a thought. I reckon the most popular ruck combo is Grunstein looking at the RMT section. It raises some thoughts.
1. At the price, Goldy surely is a keeper.
2. Does that eliminates Gawn as an upgrade target….no sideways trades etc… Even if Gawn fell to say $600k, All Saints suggests to trade him in for Goldy would effectively still cost $130k
So I got thinking. If we all start with say 14 premos, why does one of them HAVE to be r2 (Goldy). It doesn’t matter where the upgrades come from…we would all still need 8 to get to full prems.
My current team has Goldy and about $140k. I’m looking at Preuss ($239k) as R2 if selected, and Fort on the bench. This would allow a mid prem such as Sloane or Adams to start, and would also mean that there are two possible upgrades for Gawn later…Preuss or Fort.
This stategy might be enhanced with the Hoff up forward with his dpp.
I dont think Melbourne got Preuss for bench cover given the new rules.
Am I being silly or does this have legs ??
Not silly at all. I’m going further and trying to avoid starting even one premium ruck if I can, although we’ll have a better idea of how the budget options are shaping up once the JLTs start.
REQUEST FOR COMMENT:
Is anyone interested in participating in an experimental auction league?
It would combine aspects of both salary-cap and draft leagues: like the former, there would be a salary cap; like the latter, each player could only be in one team at a time. Unlike the latter, however, players would be bought at auction rather than taken in a draft. The IPL player auctions are a real-world example of this.
I’m still working out the logistics of how to run it, but I thought I’d get a feel for the level of interest before getting too far ahead of myself.
Let me know what you think.
I don’t have stats on hand to support this, but how important was gawn to melbournes fortunes last year?
So are the coaching staff going to thwart all that by bringing preuss in to bugger up the best tap ruckman in the afl!!!
I may very well be in for a fall but it’s grundy and gawn daylight third for me.
Hey Bruce
I started with that combo at the end of last season and was convinced until we started back on here. I’ve since been everywhere man but am slowly coming back to the same.
With so few of the mid premos that I like having full pre-seasons, I certainly have the cash to do it.
I listened to Gerard Whately interview Reg on SEN this morning. I’m sold.
I tinkered with goldie, can’t just say no without trying. But I always had just short of cash to upgrade him to Gawn. And was always stuck thinking your the one player I’m always trying to fit in.
I gave up and went, Gawn is locked unless preuss has an obvious dramatic effect on him.
Also I figured if someone said to me at the start of the season,would you take an extra 400 points on top of anyone who didn’t start Gawn for 150k. Would I say yes? Yes I would. (sure, not guaranteed, but likely going off practice games so far)
The new rule change might affect the use of Preuss and Gawny. With the ball moving at a faster rate down back perhaps Gawn will be used more in 3/4 of the ground (defence and through the middle) and then Pruess is taking a few big marks up the ground testing smaller defences. Gawn then either goes off for a break or takes a rest up forward but I doubt this would be for long periods. JLT might tell us more. This ensures they always have a tap ruckman covered in all areas of the ground.
I may have dug my heels in a bit over maxy and i read somewhere recently not to be too attached to your favourites , but really he had a great average and aggregate last year .
It’s ok, poor All Saint’s, Freo and others put up with me all pre season banging on about it.
lol, if i get one thing right this season i’d like it to be this. A big win if correct.
Jack Steele is the secret love child of this page (I believe mainly due to the affection shown by allsaints) but might just become my secret love child too.
We all know his average post Rd 14 but with either Dunstan or Ross out of the team in this period he averaged 133.3 (4 games). With both in the team his average was only a measly 94.6 (5 games).
With the news of Jack Steven stepping away for a while with mental health issues (poor bloke hope he recovers soon!) that might just open up a spot for Steele to cement himself in that midfield.
Not to mention the talk of him being relieved of some of his defensive duties and adding more ammo to his offensive game.
I’ve been trying to fit Gawn into my side for weeks now and always seem to end up with about 520-540k left over which I’ve been too afraid to use on Sloane and Steele up until now. He’s priced nicely at $512,000 if you get what I’m saying *wink wink nudge nudge*
Yep but also does seb Ross get tagged much? And if not much will he now?
That’s a good point. A bit like the Lions with Zorko and Beams, they tended to tag Steven and Ross last year, predominantly Steven tho’.
I certainly think Steele’ll get away with it in the first few rounds. Will need to see fair improvement in his DE and impact before he receives due attention.
Was tagged in Rd 2 by Jacobs and still scored 98. Steven was tagged 5 times during the season, I see these taggers going to Ross as first choice but if Steele gets tagged he might even tag himself to shake the tag!
So Ross has history of premo scoring.
Steel could be a bargain.
TU-ROSS
TD-STEEL.
His name is Steal 😉
Hey guys I’m participating in a 10 person draft league this season where pick run in a snake order (if you have pick 1 you don’t pick again until pick 20 +21 but if you have pick 10 you get 10+11+ 30 for example).
We do a challenge every year to determine the draft order and this year for the first time, the winner will be allowed to pick where they would like to draft. If for example I won, I’d be hesitant to take pick 1 and prefer instead to take pick 4/5/6 which gives you more picks towards higher rated players.
Just wondering what peoples thought are on this?
Odds are you want a few picks in because this year there are some players at the top who are close in value. List the players you want most, and then imagine you just got each one. The first time you are disappointed, go back one – there is your number.
Yep, that’s what we did – I had pick 4, then 21. Ended up with Gawn and The Bont.
Pick 1 was danger, then with pick 25 he picked up Cal Ward.
I like the idea of having a little break between picks, so was happy with pick 4 (time to breathe, crack another can and pinch a sneaky snag of the BBQ)…having said that, I think danger is a clear #1, so I probably wouldn’t pass up #1 if I got it.
On a side note our challenge was, we all placed a $5 bet the day before, and whoever had the biggest return got to pick their draft spot – only 1 guy won anything (took the $1.08 on Winx!)…everyone else got drawn out of a hat.
Good luck!
Weitering has been killing it so far this year, he’s overcome the confidence issues and injuries and is really impressing.
Don’t forget that he averaged 89 in his first 4-games of AFL finishing the season with one of the highest averages of any #1 pick in the last 20-years.
He averaged 83 over the last 4-games of 2018 including a 44 upon return from a knee hyperextension and, he scored 101 in three quarters in the last game of 2018.
He can play.
I wont be starting him at this stage but if Jones gets the job manning up the big forwards and Jacob is allowed to ‘float’ during JLT I might find room for him.
I thought I’d highlighted him BEFORE JLT and I thought somebody voted it down. I couldn’t understand why but its probably an auto reaction from a generally negative person
Is there any info on oliver this year, haven’t heard much about one of the possible uber premos of sc?.
He is in my team at the moment,had him all of last season and didn’t let me down.
I know he had surgery on both shoulders in the off-season.
He is one of my 5 mid keepers at the moment, but that 5 also includes fyfe, who can be ‘you know’. Might be a bit risky to start both!
May not start either if not 100%
He did have shoulder surgery (both) back in November.
Whilst he has done little/no contact work on the track, he has apparently done more in the gym and run significantly more k’s than any other.
If he’s named Rd1, I’ll be picking him. A bit like Cripps, he’d play with fractured bones, ‘cos he’s a beast.
Think Cripps may be slightly overpriced as his TOG% was so high last year (89%, compared to say Kelly 79%) and if the 3rd/4th years prove they can take some of the load, I’d expect his TOG% to drop.
But like Oliver, you know he’ll average 110+ and play 22 unless he suffers a major injury. And that is worth its weight in SC Gold.
Cripps is in my 5 keepers as well, locked!
Bilateral shoulder reconstructions Bruce. That means that he’ll probably have a bit of difficulty lifting his arms above tackles or marking overhead. The shoulder is the most complex joint in the human body with double the directional movement of the others. Shoulder reco’s are statistically the least successful reconstructive surgery but due to the high amount of pain involved in recovery (compared to knees) not many voluntarily go for round 2.
I’d steer clear
Thanks David , have been having some doubts as there hasn’t been much said about him at all.
Over the doubts now Bruce?!?!?! 😉
Sam Walsh.
Needs to average 105+ to be a keeper, or 95+ for m-9.
Needs to reach at leased $350+ to be a good cash cow. Which is an average of around 80?
Will probably be slow growth.
First year may be rested.
Out of all rookies has seemingly best job security, unlikely but possible to reach a 100ave.
(feel free to chime in if above is incorrect)
So what are people doing?
TU-starting him.
TD-looking elsewhere.
Might need a re-analysis after tonight T.O.F. 28 polished possies, second behind Crippa. Don’t know what points they’ll allocate but I’m tipping he raises the bat when the points get published.
So are people leaning towards
TU-13 guns and rookies.
TD-14+starters(at leased 12guns)
ATM Liber and Worpel TBA via JLT.
A letter to Sam Walsh,
Damn you Walshy, why did you have to play well last night? I kept waiting for you to run out of legs, or hoped that it was just opening night adrenaline, but you didn’t let up.
I really didn’t want to fork out the cash for you, but now you leave me no choice. Where am I going to get the cash from Sam? Where?
(Seriously though, well done young fella). 🙂
Arrrgh! DEFENCE, so much value, so many rookies who look promising, so many guns, I’ve narrowed it down to about 20 players I’m happy starting. Think I’ll sure up fwd, mids and ruck. Then what ever is left over can go into defence.
Right on. Agonizing now over Hurn, really don’t want to drop down to Williams; especially when Hurn seems to be popping off in this first quarter.
11:30 on a Friday and 45 people on here. Does nobody have work to do?!
#fourdayweek
They just have their priorities right.
Workin on a $50k bonus (along with 200,000 other people) 🙂
Anyone know where I can see live SC scores from the JLT games? The site I usually follow along with doesn’t have them up.
what do we think if westhoff as F2 or even R2?
he will play a wing this season hopefully with lycett & ryder rucking/forward…
TU or TD?
Will be important to see what kind of role Hinkley gives him, which we’ll be able to ascertain from the JLT to some degree and the R1 teamsheets. But yeah, love Westhoff. I rate that move.
What’s the injury news with J. Corbett GCS? SuperCoach is showing him as injured. Is this season ending or short term?
Only a few rounds I believe. I can’t remember what the injury is if I’m honest.
JLT is a trap and quiet dangerous…
After JLT performances BCrouch & Smith have made it in my team
with Taranto Newman Billings and mills all on my watch list for JLT2..
got to try and resist the temptaion on them or i’m in for a long season.
So much value in defence and mid field. It’s kinda ridiculous. Could practically run mid price madness and be optimistic about the outcome.
I’M NOT FALLING FOR IT! Guns and rookies and maby Williams or libba but not both.
There all traps, no break outs, injury prone and position changes will undo most of them.
I’m standing fast against all these tempting players. Only allowing myself 1 exception.
While this year seems to provide an abundance of cheap solid options over other years, there still the same type of players at a lower price for a reason.
Williams, Roberton,smith,libba and miles in the one team is really tempting, but I’m not falling for it, been down this path before, it leads to frustration and anger. 2 value picks is not worth a proven premium and rookie.
Just had to get that out of the system, their temptation is so strong.
After JLT1 all but wrapped up just waiting on the pies to spank freo today the guns and rookies has me worried Theoriginalforce.
Usually I am all about this method and is proven to work but there are not many rookies putting there hands up for round 1 and have solid enough JS to have much trust in them… There have been a few unexpected rooks play well but that’s in sides with majority of there best 22 out so will they be there Rd1, unlikely imo.
Even the expensive rooks don’t scream pick me this year. walsh the exception.
This season i am moving down the path of midprice madness.
Smith Crouch Libba Greene Williams Short Houli Newman all present value but with risk. Im not taking them all of but a few may feature in my team.
You should never be worried about guns and rookies. Everyone says the same thing every single year and its never a problem. Proven method that works. There is enough rookies this year for it to not be a problem again. Worse case scenario is you have to pay up for the more expensive rookies.
Williams and Roberton the only mid pricers in my team currently. However in saying that Mills, Smith, Newman, Libba, Taranto all viable options. Id be sceptical about the rest.
Currently have Williams, BSmith, Roberton, Taranto and …. Darcy MOORE 😉
I see you’ve already taken your team down from twitter and made changes 😉
I love the Taranto pick but will pass in supercoach regardless.
Interesting to see how Darcy Moore goes tonight!
AS, are you really going to take a punt on an injury ridden kpp…..seems unlike you. I wish you luck.
My real smokey as a breakout contender and POD is Jack Higgins. I just love his attitude to life, his workrate is ELITE he’s hungry & he just lives to play football and it shows when his out there he is special to watch. Jacks TAC days were incredible with a ridiculous avg of 145 also he just needs dimma to throw him in the guts to have him take his game to the next level, is this year the year?
Unless there are injuries or suspensions, I reckon I am now only looking for two rookies to put there hands up. Currently I have
Burgess Mackay Clark Hore
Walsh Bewley I Hill Gibbons Walsh Watson (loop)
Fort
Setterfield MacAdam Cavarra Parker Petrucelle
That leaves me Roberton and Libba onfield as mids. Rest all ubers.
I reckon so many teams will have the same core players…Laird, Lloyd, Cripps Dusty Oliver Grundy Danger heeney etc…that the correct rookies will make or break a sc season.
How are your rookies looking ??
Expensive. Gone premium and 123-180rookies. Collins, setterfield, Hatly, walsh, butters, Clark. Pending tonight want logue as well.
Thinking that if there in my team now I can downgrade them when teams drop if need be, but I don’t want to be trying to get them in at the last minute.
OOps…Walsh in twice….only five rooks…really loaded up on mids that I want in my finals team.
What round does Gaff return again?
Round 3 I believe.
Is it me, or is this the hardest pre-season yet to pick a starting team?