Hi Everybody!
Here is the first batch of forwards. I want to re-remind people, this is just my personal guessing, and not anything derived from math.
Lachie Whitfield
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2013 | 19 | 73 | 18 | |
| 2014 | 11 | 79.4 | 19 | |
| 2015 | 21 | 77.9 | 20 | |
| 2016 | 19 | 81.2 | 21 | |
| 2017 | 15 | 97.6 | 22 | 100 |
| 2018 | 22 | 99.9 | 23 | 105 |
| 2019 | 16 | 111.2 | 24 | 106 |
| 105-112 | 107 |
Some history of being fragile has probably hurt past seasons. Can an outside player break the 115 barrier? I have doubts. He looks likely to be the highest scoring forward by average at the end of the season, although he could be far from the top in total points. I do think that 112 is about the top of his range, and that he is therefore top priced and will at best do what you pay for, or more likely a bit worse. With so many value priced forwards available he is the sort of player I would try to bring in later, but there is nothing wrong with getting him in now if you think his ceiling is more like 115 for the season.
Michael Walters
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2009 | 3 | 50 | 18 | |
| 2010 | 3 | 65.3 | 19 | |
| 2011 | 3 | 54 | 20 | |
| 2012 | 8 | 75.6 | 21 | |
| 2013 | 18 | 88.9 | 22 | |
| 2014 | 6 | 79.2 | 23 | |
| 2015 | 20 | 81.4 | 24 | |
| 2016 | 22 | 78.6 | 25 | |
| 2017 | 17 | 87 | 26 | 90 |
| 2018 | 18 | 87.8 | 27 | 90 |
| 2019 | 22 | 100.8 | 28 | 89 |
| 85-92 | 88 |
Dustin Martin
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2010 | 21 | 77.9 | 18 | |
| 2011 | 22 | 98.9 | 19 | |
| 2012 | 20 | 88.5 | 20 | |
| 2013 | 22 | 101.8 | 21 | 100 |
| 2014 | 21 | 99.5 | 22 | 103 |
| 2015 | 22 | 105.5 | 23 | 104 |
| 2016 | 22 | 108.1 | 24 | 105 |
| 2017 | 22 | 119.3 | 25 | 106 |
| 2018 | 21 | 103.9 | 26 | 105 |
| 2019 | 20 | 100 | 27 | 104 |
| 98-105 | 28 | 102 |
I don’t think he will suffer an age drop off yet but as I wrote already, the Tigers are going to go easy on him early and try to have him peak for finals.
Gary Ablett
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2006 | 21 | 91.4 | 21 | |
| 2007 | 22 | 114.2 | 22 | |
| 2008 | 18 | 132.2 | 23 | 130 |
| 2009 | 19 | 140.1 | 24 | 130 |
| 2010 | 21 | 129.9 | 25 | 130 |
| 2011 | 20 | 127.1 | 26 | 130 |
| 2012 | 20 | 138.4 | 27 | 130 |
| 2013 | 21 | 128.9 | 28 | 130 |
| 2014 | 15 | 136.7 | 29 | 130 |
| 2015 | 6 | 115.5 | 30 | 120 |
| 2016 | 14 | 114.1 | 31 | 115 |
| 2017 | 14 | 114.8 | 32 | 110 |
| 2018 | 18 | 106.9 | 33 | 103 |
| 2019 | 21 | 95.7 | 34 | 95 |
| 85-92 | 87 |
Truly amazing seven year run. A beer truck hit his shoulder in 2015 and ended it. He was so good that 20 points right off his average wasn’t enough to end his relevance as a Supercoach option though. He got hit by a second beer truck last season and got back up for yet another try in 2020. Sadly, I don’t think there is a reason other than sentiment to pick him now. Maybe mid season, depending on how things go.
Isaac Heeney
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2015 | 12 | 70 | 18 | |
| 2016 | 20 | 79.7 | 19 | |
| 2017 | 18 | 97.6 | 20 | 95 |
| 2018 | 21 | 97.5 | 21 | 96 |
| 2019 | 22 | 94 | 22 | 97 |
| 93-100 | 98 |
Probably priced about the mid bottom of what we can expect, even if his role does not change. But his role not changing means we can get him in later rather than need to get him in now in order to get him cheap. He certainly has an established level
Toby Greene
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2012 | 19 | 94.6 | 18 | |
| 2013 | 19 | 73.2 | 19 | |
| 2014 | 15 | 102.9 | 20 | 93 |
| 2015 | 22 | 82.8 | 21 | 93 |
| 2016 | 21 | 90.4 | 22 | 93 |
| 2017 | 16 | 96.1 | 23 | 93 |
| 2018 | 7 | 72.6 | 24 | 93 |
| 2019 | 16 | 93.9 | 25 | 93 |
| 91-98 | 93 |
Pardon me while I yell “Flog!” a few times. “Flog, Floggity Flog Flog Flog!!!” Ahem. If he plays forward, which it looks like he will, get discount players to start with and go flogless. If/when enough GWS mids are out injured and he has to move into the mids to cover, then bring him in, flog or no flog.
Jeremy Cameron
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2012 | 16 | 62.4 | 18 | |
| 2013 | 21 | 72.7 | 19 | |
| 2014 | 14 | 56.5 | 20 | |
| 2015 | 22 | 74.5 | 21 | |
| 2016 | 18 | 71 | 22 | |
| 2017 | 18 | 89.1 | 23 | 86 |
| 2018 | 16 | 81.2 | 24 | 88 |
| 2019 | 20 | 92.8 | 25 | 90 |
| 88-94 | 90 |
Priced at his value or so. Should hover around his previous seasons score, and since he is a key forward, his price should wander around some. If it gets low enough, bring him in mid-season.
Remember the Craggy Island Guarantee, All predictions wrong or triple your money back!
Thanks for reading!
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Yep, no confidence in any of them. Whitfields ceiling is making me select him a 120-130 ave over the first couple of rounds will hurt not having him. As for the rest… Whatever.
Whitfield, Martin, Heeney. Simple.
I’m with you TOF. 110%
If Whitfield plays just six straight, you’re in trouble without him. As for the rest of the above?! No thanks.
You will not win SC on your FWD line this year. But you could well lose it by investing too much at the start. Put your money where the points are. This is your line to make cash, giving you time to see who the top 6 are gonna be. And that includes Dusty.
FD! ‘A picture can paint a thousand words.’ Thank you.
My F2 will likely be under $400k this year. The ones I think might make top6 out of these will be MUCH cheaper soon enough. And if they’re not, it’ll cost very little to get them in.
Disagree. Having poor forwards can ruin your season more than some people might think. Say Dusty averages 105 – that is a massive 25 points a game more than a 80 point averager, which includes most of midprice gamble fwds. People are fretting mist of their energy on the possible difference between Fyfe and Oliver types, when the real ppg differences are found elsewhere
Yes, but I’d personally take Oliver at m6 over dusty at f2.
Depends which rookie comes onto the field in each scenario. Oliver over Dusty yes, but it could become Oliver/King (F6) vs Dusty/ Stephens (M8), in which case I’d take the latter.
Also 100% agree you with Simon re: picking mid premiums. Picking any combination of the top 8-10 from last year won’t be where your season is won or lost.
I agree with AS here, Dusty will come into my team but he always finishes strong and I’d rather start with slightly underpriced players on other lines that I won’t be able to get any cheaper than pay slightly over for him. I’m sure people will break out in the FWD line but unless someone becomes clear in the Marsh series, it’s a wait and see.
All Ausrtralian 2013 and 2019 for Cameron says it all for key forwards.
Too much variation in their best and good. They just need to be milked should you be able to pick a flyer in the first 6-7 rounds.
Tom Lynch is the pin?
Michael Walters is well worth the Punt in 2020.
Season 2019 was the first that he averaged 20 possessions and pushed his TOG towards the 90% mark. Whilst his centre clearance numbers were not great, the around ground numbers were above average. Tackles and tackles inside 50 were career best and he still was able to kick 40 goals for the season.
Cannot see Brayshaw, Blakely or others being midfield beasts in 2020 as the midfield is still developing plus they have lost Langdon and Hill. An average of 95-100 will see him in the top 6 forwards.
Walters at 547k should not be considered by yourself as a “punt”. For me this says exactly his a bad option.
I cannot see where Walters improvement is going to come from. You mention how tackles and tackles inside 50 were career best years and also it is the first time he averages 20 touches with 90% TOG. So where is his improvement to get better coming from? For him to be a worthy pick he has to again have a career best season at 28 years old which seems very unlikely.
Will still be top 6 but if you want a safe top 6 forward who will average 95-105 then Dusty is 5k cheaper with a higher cieling?
I love how Admiral Ackbar doesn’t even need a caption.
What are your thoughts on this forward line?
J Dawson, C Rozee, T Lynch
D Smith, L Henry, C Weightman
I Rankine, N Cahill
Tron.
Sorry mate.
This approach has almost no chance of being successful.
Very few players ” Breakout” each year. Here, you are betting on Dawson , Rozee and Lynch all increasing their averages enough to be keepers. ( none of them are cheap enough to be stepping stones, maybe lynch, I will explain later.*)
History says at least two of these guys will continue to average in the eighties. One of them ” May” bump their average over 90.
The big question is which one, if at all ?
Maybe its Ceglar if he gets first Ruck duties ?
I know the Forward line (this year) is probably the line with the most capacity for risk. I still think Whitfield is a must have at F1. Not everyone agrees with me here, I just feel he is the only Forward capable of starting the year ( first 5/6 weeks,pre upgrades)) with a 120+ average.
Unless you’re somehow going 6 deep in the Mids and G&G, I just can’t see how you make up those points.
I can see some merit in starting Lynch* over Dusty at F2.
IF…….
You think he can start huge, and get over $480K by R6/7.
You would also hope Dusty starts slow and drops down to a similar price. Then you would switch them up for minimal $ ( this would justify the trade)
Coming into the middle of winter and some wet days, I would much rather Dusty than a marking player like Lynch.
I would steer clear of Dawson and Rozee unless they look to be playing a big percentage of their time in the Midfield.
I would rather take on a Stevens / Smith type.Not only have they done it before,they are both cheaper and won’t need to average as much to justify their selection.
Best of luck in 2020.
Thanks Freo! Epic detailed response. I’m not actually running that forward line, it’s just my team has looked a little too similar to what most people are thinking, so I’ve been tossing around a few ideas in my mind for a laugh…
No worries Tron.
CJ84.
There’s many ways to skin a cat 😉
I totally understand your position on Whitfield.
When it comes to the midfield I would never start an injury prone player over a durable type. Cripps over Jelly for sure.
When it comes to the Forwards this year, Who else is likely even close to Whitfield when fit? I think the injury risk is worth it.
Just like those thinking of not starting Gawn, because of a preseason niggle or the risk of further injury.
Most people will take that risk, because the next best is so far behind Big Max. Its also much easier to trade down when or if he breaks down.
I think with the Forwards this year, Whitfield is too far ahead of the rest to be ignored. Also just like Gawn, its much easier to trade him down if / when he gets injured.
If Lachie lines up round one, he’s in my team.
Also Tron, its hard to judge the forward line without seeing the whole team.
My very 1st team i made had whitfield, however pretty quickly i removed him and feel pretty good not starting him, and i highly doubt i will start dusty.
Whitfield has just had his best averaging season, he has had ankle reconstruction in the off season, GWS have players back and emerging talent that will just rack up points. That’s not saying he won’t have big games. But it is almost like how i won’t start fyfe or kelly in the midfield. I do not want fully priced injury prone players to begin with. Whitfield won’t just miss one or two games, he will miss more than that and my gut tells me he will average less this season. My current team has solid premiums on every line except the forwards, i don’t expect them to be keepers at all however i’m very confident each of them are under priced and will be able to do something with them throughout the season – cockatoo at f6 currently.
Can you let Lachie know he has had an ankle reconstruction in the off season? He wasn’t aware. he’s clearly putting himself at risk…. completed the preseason so far with flying colours. Almost like he hasn’t actually had an ankle reconstruction.
He had it four days after the Grand Final (in which he prolly shouldn’t have played), but it went very well apparently.
Full pre-season? Yes.
Injury-risk? Certainly.
Don’t start him? At your peril!
As Freo Tragic said on FD’s second batch earlier today, he will likely outscore any other FWD by 15pts or more. If he plays the first six you’ll be scrambling to bring him in, as people were early last year … and then he got injured!!
Start him ahead of any other but make sure you have contingency plans should he go down for a few weeks. GWS can afford to give elite players more time to come back as they have such depth. My contingency is to have no other FWD premos so my F6 is currently Bonar with rookies only on the bench. Hopefully the best two so I don’t have a gaping hole and can cover it with 65-75 pts/week rather than 40!
We’ll wait and see how many look like being decent-scoring FWD rookies through the Marsh Series, but if the numbers don’t look good, this will be my strategy.
Also Sainter..
Whitfield is M/F so can be swapped to the mid bench. 🙂
There “seems”to be enough Forward rookie depth to potentially start a Bonar / Cockatoo type at M 6 / 8
DPP is key 😉
FT, what are your thoughts on Walters? Be interested to hear a Freo supporter’s perspective. Was last year purely anomalous?
Thats what all the Stats say Gunboat.
Who really knows how Freo are going to line up with a new coach and all.
My gut tells me he may be needed forward at least early in the season.
Mundy’s injured and theres no Hogan 🙁 for now.
I can see him have a few bursts through the middle when Fyfe is resting forward. I also realised his stats are slightly skewed by a couple of late clutch goals that he scored something like 30/40 points each for He just isn’t likely to that again!
Add to that his age , injury history and starting price and I just can’t justify stating him.
I will keep an eye on him and if he drops a few low scores mid year, and then somehow starts playing more midfield. I “might” then look at him as an upgrade target .
Think you’ve nailed a crucial point there FT re: clutch goals. I’ve read there were more than two and he’s boosted his total by anything from 60-120pts!
That means unless he does it again next year he is likely overpriced by 2.5-5pts per game = $50-100k by Rd8.
Upgrade only target for me. Especially once Mundy (and other) come(s) back. He will likely pump his output after that. I think
It might be good to start listing potential Non Premo Forward options pre Marsh Series.
Some that spring to mind are..
Midpricers.. $200K / 400+K
Lynch
Ceglar
Steven
Smith
Townsend
Bonar
Rookies under $200K
S Hill
L Henry
B Frampton
S Flanders
KKP
Cockatoo
Georgiades
D Cameron R/F
M King
Rankine
Cahill
Williams
I’m sure there’s some I missed.
Recent comments from Geelong re Cockatoo would suggest get rid of him.
Going light in the forward line while avoiding the poor scoring rookies seems the way to go. But, Is it possible? F1 is a tricky pick, not much value and Whit is an injury risk, someone has to start there though.
Been on the site for a decade. Written heaps of content for this illustrious site. Walk away from my screen to scratch my nose for a little too long and I’m lost. What’s a TLA?????
http://supercoachtalk.com/luck-skill-and-circumstance-2020/
You know that time you asked your maths teacher to explain something to you and then they did and they walked away and you were still sitting there with no idea … yeah, well that’s me right now!!
TLA = ?????????????
True Level of Ability. FD has spent a huge amount of time studying scoring trends of elite players by position. Based on their age and role he can then guesstimate, based on their output to date, what their likely SC-average (range) might be should other variables remain consistent. It is quite simplistic in methodology (the maths) but truly brilliant in terms of how it helps us all with those tricky decisions.
Thanks allsaints. Twas looking for the acronym and you hit me with it. Cheers mate!!!
Hey RB
Sorry that should say: based on age, # of games and # of seasons in the system!
Cheers
Was helping grandkids and co. at little aths.
All the kids were feeling great, they had all reached their PBs.
Cheers all round from coaches and judges and parents.
Asked all 15 kids, not one of them knew what PB ment.
I understand your thoughts Roo Bloke.
Maybe if we learnt things and were not just told things re. GPS ie. we would understand and know more…….nah politicians wouldn’t do that, would they???
I’m concerned about Whitfield missing too much. 1 week injury, ok, you keep him. But wait, it’s the giants and they have so much depth, 4 weeks later you’re still waiting. You finally trade him out only for him to play the following week. Season dusted.
I’ll be going with dusty at F1 and the rest mid pricers and rooks. Durability is key.
This, combined with the fact that GWS always play funny buggers with injuries / injury reports. It was Jelly last year and I don’t trust them not to do the same thing again (if Whitfield goes down).
Jezza Cameron
“Priced at his value or so. Should hover around his previous seasons score, and since he is a key forward, his price should wander around some. If it gets low enough, bring him in mid-season. ”
Trust me don’t do this did it last year and was a legit poato.
Whitfield for 115 is about his ave from L/Y if you delete the injury game the scary bit is his ave of 67 (inc finals) when tagged by mediocre taggers.
He was Tagged in 3 games V. Suns GWS had massive win, V. Port GWS has a 1 point win and V. Lions GWS scraped in by 3 pts. Whitfields scores in those games 65, 90, 46
It looks like if you follow whitfield around you significantly effect GWS scoring ability. I reckon a few coaches might have noticed that. Sure L/Y he started with 4 tons and a 4 game ave of 129 BUT what will happen to his price If the Cats, Dees, Dogs and Dopers give him a run with opponent and he averages 70?
Walters is a much safer option I reckon
Everything but the last sentence! 😀