Going, Going, Gawn?

Written by Huttabito on July 6 2017

And why shouldn’t it? After finishing 2016 with an average of 118.5 (3rd highest overall scorer), he began 2017 at $645,000 and 31% of all SuperCoaches thought that price tag was an absolute steal for the All Australian, especially after they removed the 3rd man up rule.

After looking like he was worth his price tag with 128 and 111 in the opening 2 rounds, the SC gods struck down and hit his hamstring leaving him left for dead on 27 points in Rd3 and dropping $49.1K right there and then. The rest, well, is history.

But, in case you missed it, Gawn went MIA for the next 10 weeks as he joined the rehabilitation group before making his comeback in Rd14 against the Eagles. Taking advantage of their depleted ruck stocks, Gawn looked as though he hadn’t missed a beat and tapped his way to 113 points from 42 hitouts, 7 kicks, 8 handballs and 4 marks but dropped $44.1K thanks to a BE north of 200 points. His second game back saw him with a BE of 184 against Sydney, who were way to eager to shark his taps which left him a score of 96 from 29 hitouts, 6 kicks, 5 handballs and 5 marks to drop his price $510,900. Gawn did also cop a knock to the knee and looked Oliver (little ginger) running around for the rest of the game.

Coming out of Uni a couple of years ago I have learnt to become quite the thrifty man and can spot a bargain from a mile away and well, Gawn being priced at just over $500k is one of the biggest ones I’ve ever seen. I just have one problem though, how the hell can I justify bringing him in!?! Every single coach that didn’t jump on Gawn over the last fortnight will fall into 1 of the 4 scenarios below.

Scenario 1 – Sandi(lands) Hard
First up is the poor souls who held onto Sandilands for the last 5 weeks only for him to go down on 12 points. Is this you? Congratulations, you can easily (and justifiably) pick up the ruck deal of a lifetime for a mere $70k. Hope you don’t need two trades though as that could become quite awkward, unless you did things by the rule book and didn’t go early on Witherden.

Scenario 2 – Classic Switch Up
Then there is those with Ryder or Nankervis warming your ruck line. If this is you, move ’em forward, bring in Gawn and let the good times roll. Your ruck/forward back up is no use if they are actually in the ruck!

If you are in one those above two scenarios then trading in Big Max is an absolute no brainer. Things get a little more hairy (unlike Gawns beard *sad face*) if you have already finalised this line with two of Kreuzer, Martin, Mumford, Goldstein, Grundy or Jacobs. It gets even more hairier if you have Witts with one of the others.

Scenario 3 – Set and Forget
So you already went full premo? Well I am afraid you might be fresh out of luck and have to leave the deal to someone else. At this time of year, as Father Dougal would put it, trades are like oxygen. I don’t know about you but the closer mine get to 0, the more anxious I get. All of the rucks mentioned are capable of a high score and have all posted 135+ this season and all averaging 95+. These two things along make it hard to justify wasting a trade. Everyone knew Gawn was coming back just after the byes and would drop to about the price he is now. Back you gut on the set/forget rucks you choose along the way.

Scenario 4 – Rookie Witts


Rookie Witts vs Premium Gawn – Surely the choice isn’t so hard?

As a huge Witts advocate over the pre-season and stating I think he’ll be priced $375k+ at his bye with an average of 85+, I am stoked that he turned out to be $430k with an average of 93.8. I also stated I would upgrade him to Gawn when the time came. This was pre-injury and I thought I would need $150-200k to do so, a trade I was more than willing to make at the time. That time has finally arrived and I only need $40k to do so, but why so hard to pull the trigger all of a sudden? Well, whilst he has an average of 94.4, he seems to have settled and found his feet with his last 8 weeks going something like this:

115, 97, 98, 96, 107, 72, 99 and 100

That’s an average of 98 which includes a 72 against the #1 ruck of the competition, Kreuzer. Whilst he may not have a massive ceiling (highest score of 115 all season), he looks to give a consistent 95-105 week in, week out should average 95 from here on out at a minimum. Especially given his run home is on the easier side of things.

I sit here and think, well Gawn averaged 118 last season so I could be getting an extra 20 points. This is true, but then I looked at how he got his average so high last season. Apart from the 172 against Goldstein, which was an absolute spectacle and a highly recommend match to watch if you haven’t seen it, he only seemed to bully teams that lacked a genuine top ruck. Port Adelaide and Trengrove (151 and 168), Hawthorn and Ceglar (168), Fremantle and Griffin (141), Richmond and a cooked Maric (160) and Gold Coast and Currie (174). Against teams with better rucks (less tap outs) and strong midfields (more sharked), he only went 90-120 with couple of lower ones thrown in there and the monster scores dragged it up.

Looking at Gawns remaining opponents for the year, he has Kruzer, Jacobs, Ryder, Goldstein (or worse, Preuss), Mumford, Longer, S.Martin and Grundy. Now I don’t know about you, but apart from St Kilda and Longer, that is one mighty hard schedule for a ruckman. Will he hit the heights of 2016 against that lot? Personally, I think not, so I would expect an average around 105 from here on out.

Whilst yes, this is more than Witts will average, I am finding it very difficult to justify losing a trade and $40k for 7 points a week. The combination of returning from injury, upcoming opponents, Melbourne’s midfield injuries/current negative culture and a BE of 95 against Kruzer this week, I am more than happy to wait and see. I have a nice bank and the likes of Witts (and Newman @ D6) stay until they give me reason not to and then they will get upgraded to the Crème de la Crème. I think half of the stigma around Witts is that at the start of the season, he was just an expensive rookie and the thoughts of keeping him as an on-field keeper doesn’t sit quite right with the conscious. I get the same feeling about Newman but you can’t argue with the numbers they put up week after week.

At the end of the day, everyone’s situation is different and it all boils down to how many trades you have left, how much cash in the bank you have and whether you are going for overall or league. This is my thoughts based on my situation, plans and goals. What scenario do you fall into and how are you approaching Gawn this round (and future rounds)?

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24 thoughts on “Going, Going, Gawn?”

  1. Great write up Huttabito! I have to say i am also in the mindset that the Witts to Gawn trade really isnt worth it. Trades this time of year are even more golden and for at most 8×20=160 points extra for the year its really hard to justify a trade.

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  2. Good stuff Hutta as it is a really good read with great analysis!

    Luckily i fall into Scenario 2 after trading Sandi to Lynch and moving Nank to the Rucks during the Byes.
    So James Stewart to Gawn for me is a no brainer.

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    1. I was in same boat, I just wished I had remained patient and brought in Gawn this week or next instead of last week. could have saved $40k and would have only lossed 30 points from my score last week (would have had Berry on field).

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  3. Outstanding summary. Completely agree with your logic:

    If you have an injury (Sandi) or a DPP still sitting in your RUCK line, then it’s a definite. However, if you’re already sitting on 2 likely keepers (even Witts), then it’s probably a bit of a waste (especially considering there’s only 8 weeks left).

    At this stage of the year, then it’s not worth the possible gain of only, say, 80 points (10ppw vs. Witts x 8 weeks).

    The only ways I could justify it under this logic is if (a) you were still swimming in trades (at least 6), or (b) you genuinely believe Gawn will average 115-120 from here on, which would then genuinely warrant consideration of a Witts side swap.

    And whilst his run home does seem tough, he only needs to pull out one of those 170-180 scores that we know he’s capable of to give his average a massive boost (105 x 7 + 180 x 1 = 915 = 114ppw).

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    1. I will be sweating he doesn’t pull a monster but he also had a 49 and a pair of 63s last season which would balance things out. Although with the new ruck rules we’ve seen less shockers form the rucks.

      As long as Gawn doesn’t go big in the next month, he and Witts should hover around the same price difference and if the luxury presents itself come finals with trades up my sleeve still, I will be all on board.

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  4. A little off topic. Sort of.

    I’m not going there partly cause of my much discussed boycott of all things Voldemort but partly cause it’s best 22 time, but your thoughts on Sandi to Darcy instead of Sandi to Gawn. Seen it mentioned a few times as a left field approach. Seems crazy talk to me.

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    1. Darcy has scores of 50 and 99. Which one is the true reflection?
      We’ve lost McCarthy and Kersten is a potato, does Griffin come back and they ruck/forward 50/50?
      He’s also a 2 gamer, will he need a rest if he’s getting bashed men bigger than the WAFL folk?

      Plonking him at R3 for a few weeks? If you have trades (as it will take 2 to move him in/out), sure. Chucking him at R2? I don’t think this is the right time of the season to be pulling move like that unless you only care about league and the only way to make finals is being so crazy.

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      1. Agree with you Hutta. Like I said, seems a crazy move to me. Maybe if you’re desperate, have zero kitty, really low on trades and have to throw a hail Mary to try and make SC finals.

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  5. Another scenario , Ryder in ruck and Nank in fwds already , moving ryder fwd
    means I would have four KPP types , is that to many? Strnadica on bench for DPP
    either way.

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    1. Ryder and Nank are scoring enough to be in the FWD line so I don’t think it matters what position they are, as long as they are scoring.

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  6. Just a bloody outstanding summary and great read.
    Food for thought all round.
    I am in the fortunate (or unfortunate, depending which way you read it) of having Sandi, but also needing cash and not having Witherden yet, so after stewing on it for a couple days I really didn’t have any other options but to bring the 2 of them in.
    Brings me down to 5 trades but should be able to use one to go 100% premium Next Week.
    Maybe the good Father can say a prayer for no injuries Next Week for me….

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  7. off topic… sorry

    can you start up a league this far into the season? i can’t work it out if you can.

    gawn for me. not his best game last wk but nearly raised his bat!!

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  8. Beautifully written Hutta.

    Because I love playing devil’s advocate….Gawn faces Kreuzer this weekend. Here are the performances of Kreuz’s opponents in the past six weeks:
    Round 9: Sandilands 102
    Rd 10: Goldstein 89
    Rd 12: Mumford 99
    Rd 13: Witts 72
    Rd 14: Nankervis 62
    Rd 15: Jacobs 92
    That’s one ton, for an average of 86. I was originally going to wait one more week on Max, and I think I’ve just convinced myself that it’s the right move. Having said that, if he hits 140+ this weekend, I’ll never forgive myself!

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    1. Good work Chillo.

      I have looked at the same scenario, Kreuzer has hit his stride in the last couple of weeks. I was thinking that Big Maxy would not have as big as an impact against the Blues because of that and the lack of Midfielders left for the D’s.

      In saying that Maxy has a tough run coming up after Kreuzer against Sauce Jacobs, Patty Rider, Goldy and then Big Mummy.

      I have Darcy as my R2 and Sandi on the bench, was thinking of sticking it out and make trades else where. If he can average close to Maxy over the next couple of weeks I think its a good no trade and save Sandi’s cash for finals

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  9. Such a good write up, great stuff!

    I fall perfectly into Scenario 1.

    Normally I wait until Thursday to make my trades, but on Monday morning it was Gawn and Witherden in, no questions asked.
    I’ve barely done any SC research this week!

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  10. I also agree with your logic. I’m a Witts owner, and have joined the “can’t see it worth the trade” club. My gut and those numbers tell me I will find a better use for that trade before the end of the season.

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  11. Great write up!!!

    Personally, I fall solidly into ‘Scenario 2 – Classic Switch Up’ but with one major caveat, I don’t have an obvious trade out target for Gawn. Greenwood is at F7 already and he’s still got too much to make. And don’t have any other rookies who are worth enough (bench is a big problem atm). Current relevant lineup is:

    MID: Danger, Merrett, Bont, Pendles, JPK, Treloar, J.Selwood, Fyfe (C.Brown, D.Lloyd, J.Cousins)
    RUCK: Martin, Nank (Cameron)
    FWD: Heeney, Macrae, Dahlaus, T.Lynch (GC), Yeo, Wallis (Greenwood, Eddy)

    8 trades, $120k

    So for me it would have to be Wallis/Lynch to Gawn so just gonna hold Nank as R2 for the near future and see what comes out over the next few weeks.

    Thanks Hutta!

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    1. Unless of course I trade out Fyfe and bring Yeo up to the mids and Nank fwd . That means I get Gawn, whilst also dealing with Fyfe, and work out the M8 issue at a later date.

      I gotta take a break I think….

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  12. I’ve brought in Gawn for Witts… wanted to take the plunge, 5 trades left. $11,500 left and know I will demolish my opponent this round anyway so don’t need to…

    T/U: You are wasting a trade and are a stupid head. Reverse the trade.
    T/D: May as well see it through.

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  13. Great logic Hutta. Maybe I am only saying that because I came to the same conclusion.

    I’m holding Witts for now. Who knows what new info we’ll have next week to help with this decision?

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  14. So I guess I fit in both the Sandi and witts owner scenarios as I also have goldy. In a dilemma what to do.

    T/U sandi to Gawn. Gawn will pump out a few big scores I won’t want to miss and have witts as R3 for when goldy no doubt misses a game or two

    T/D sandi to darcy. Bank the extra 300k to bring in an elite player or two for finals. Hope Gawn and goldy make it through the season and if they do miss at least I’ll get a few points from Darcy

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  15. Love the analysis, Hutta! Team Schwarz is struggling and I might have to throw a Hail Mary and go with Big Hodor Darcy. At this point, I got nothing to lose……

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