GroupThink & The JLT

Written by Thommo on March 8 2019

GROUPTHINK

Rather than throw statistics at you like I usually do in the preseason, today I am going to give you a JLT warning.

My warning is this: Beware ‘Groupthink’ and overrating JLT performances!

That’s right, Groupthink, the condition where a group of people arrive at a conclusion together and accept it as fact without any real thought. Needless to say conclusions made in this fashion are often poor! Just because everyone in a community says the same thing, that doesn’t always make it true!

Groupthink, also known as Lemming-itis.

Seasoned Supercoach players will be well aware of this condition but nobody is immune to it and it reaches a frenzied level during the JLT competition. Every season there are a group of guns and break-out contenders who are popular selections but one or two in particular capture the attention of the Supercoaches. Their names are bandied back and forth until they are eventually traded into a huge percentage of Supercoach squads. This is particularly evident if those players perform well in the preseason competition.

Just look at 2018. Many coaches who had not previously considered Michael Hibberd traded him in after hearing his name raised a lot during the JLT competition. At the same time, we all turned away from Grundy because it was accepted that Mason Cox would steal too many points from him. Those decisions were accepted as good ones by the wider community but soon proved to be rubbish.

Not that we should feel bad about Groupthink; we are programmed to find comfort in numbers. You know, the whole pack- or herd-mentality thing!

So I herd that Brad Crouch is fit this season…

I generally don’t suggest you look at other Supercoach sites – I don’t condone infidelity – but just this once have a quick search of other Fantasy football communities and you’ll find each separate group of Supercoaches have their own over-hyped players. Mind you, that doesn’t always mean the hyped players are necessarily the wrong ones. If you look at 2017 there were a group of Supercoaches who were convinced that starting with discount ruckmen like Witts and Sandilands ahead of Max Gawn was a great idea. It worked and those coaches were way ahead of their competitors from the start of the season.

As JLT statistics appear online, you will see some crazy Groupthink going on as reactionary coaches jump on the top performers. I imagine we have all made a few changes since last Friday night!

Rory looks to be back to his old self, except nobody tags in the JLT…

But how do you avoid this trap? My personal preference is to make a checklist and stick to it.

THOMMO’S JLT CHECKLIST

  1. Choose your uber-premiums before reading the JLT statistics. As long as they play don’t change these selections.
  2. Stick to your guns! If you have a POD that you have researched and you are confident he will break-out, don’t let other people dissuade you.
  3. Don’t select PODs simply to be different or because other Supercoaches support you, only select a POD because they will be a top shelf premium or earn you heaps of cashola.
  4. Don’t worry if your guns play poorly in the preseason, only worry if they get injured or don’t play at all. See point 1!
  5. Use the preseason to see what role your mid-pricers play but don’t get wrapped up in their statistics. They will be frantically working to make the best 22 or break in to the midfield group so their stats will be inflated.
  6. Pay close attention to who is missing. Ignore mid-pricers who play well simply because their star teammates aren’t playing.
  7. Remember that team lists are expanded during the preseason which lowers Supercoach scores and gives teams a chance to experiment with extra ruckmen and kids who won’t appear in the regular season.
  8. Think logically. If a player has never shown decent Supercoach form, why will they suddenly perform better in 2019? I wish I had asked that question when I selected Mr H. Lumumba.
Stupid, stupid Thommo!

After JLT1 I have seen a surge of interest in players like Nic Newman, who has never scored consistent premium numbers, Brad Crouch, who has never played a full season and numerous other risky prospects on the basis of one preseason match. Some of these players will have a spike in 2019 but many won’t, so select JLT stars with caution.

Let us know in the comments which JLT hype players are the real deal and which are preseason traps…

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53 thoughts on “GroupThink & The JLT”

  1. So, groupthink… you mean like a certain ruckman being a must-have? 😉

    Great writeup and very sound advice, Thommo.

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    1. This Saturday year the new ‘normal’ is a midprice backline. I’m not saying it won’t work, only that we wouldn’t have considered it in January!

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  2. Also, just on Newman, I can’t speak for anyone else, but personally I’ve been on him since the day Docherty went down. Last week’s JLT just confirmed for me that he’s got the role I thought he would.

    I do agree though that if that one game is *all* people are basing their interest in him on, they should definitely take a step back and think it through a bit more. But they should still pick him. 😉

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    1. Personally I don’t have Newman but Williams has me worried with his ‘rest’. I’ll be watching Newman’s role closely this week…

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    2. I think we saw even at the Swans that Newman has sufficient talent to be a worthy addition to other lists but the Swans had a massive surfeit of players who can play a Def/Mid role – McVeigh, Lloyd, Mills, Jones etc.

      Three of the key flags for picking Supercoach midpricers is looking for team or role changes, vacancies created by injury, and reasonably high ceilings suggesting the talent is there if they get the opportunity..

      Newman, with his move to Carlton and the injury to Sam Docherty clearly meets all of these criteria.

      Is he a top 6 defender? Doubtful.

      Is he a top 10 defender? Possibly, or if not will only be a couple of points per game off them.

      Is he a cash cow? Not really. He will definitely make cash not lose it, but at $394k he is gonna struggle to make $150k.

      All in all he’s clearly not a bad choice, but arguments can be made for and against his selection. Just like every player in supercoach.

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  3. Ahhh Lumumba. I remember that summer, I’m pretty sure most of us drank the Kool-Aid back then.
    Great article Thommo. This is why I’m avoiding the mid-pricers this year. I might regret it in a couple of instances, but which players will those be? It’s too hard to correctly choose the ‘good’ midpricers, and the downside is not worth it in my opinion.
    Having said that, I have had Selwood and Sloane in my team (temporarily) over the past week, purely based on JLT performance! Stay strong everyone.

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    1. I can’t knock Sloane Chillo. Even with the odd tag he’ll still score near 110ppg. Not Selwood though – you just know he’s going to knock himself out at some stage…

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  4. Brilliant piece Thommo.

    Having crunched all the JLT numbers I have to admit I got more than a little carried away! So much so that I had to delete my entire team!

    Yesterday, I went back to my premo lists that I drew up in October last year, when my memories of the AFL season just gone were both fresh and clear. I am a happy bunny now.

    As a result, I will NOT be starting any of:
    BSmith, Newman, Roberton
    BCrouch, Sloane, Miles, Liberatore, or
    any stupid FWDs

    There are simply better, safer, proven options in every position.

    I will be starting Zac Williams however, but even he is only in because Sam Docherty can’t be. Sadly.

    Thanks again Thommo. Sage words indeed, and I hope EVERYONE reads this piece so they can enjoy SC in 2019.

    Lubumbashi?!?!? What were you thinking!?!

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    1. There should be a new rule on this site.
      For every article you read, every JLT Superscore you analyse, this comment MUST be re-read between each article.
      Only then will you succeed in Supercoach Obi-One!

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    2. You stole my thunder all saints.. same ‘no go’ list, but I’m adding Walsh… won’t be anywhere near the return we will get from much cheaper rookies… I’m sticking to the theory, not the hype.
      Though JLT does has me elevating Selwood from my watch list..

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      1. It’s sound reasoning with 200K rookies, but Walsh is something special, he’s 2007 Selwood with a better role.

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        1. I agree Dann.

          Throughout Walsh’s junior career he is touted as the best performing player ever. He just never has a bad game , like NEVER. Watching him JLT 1 he was already one of Carltons best. He continues working after he has disposed of the ball, putting in 2 and 3 efforts something that is very rare for a young player, and almost unheard of in a 1st year player.

          He out performed Dow easily ( also a very high draft pick.) ,and he’s had a whole extra year in the system.

          His consistency is his biggest asset in my book. You really don’t want rookies ( especially pricey ones ) putting up poor scores, as it really affects their price growth.

          I just can’t see this happening with Walsh. I see him easily outscoring any other rookie by 15/20 points.
          ( Collins may be the exception). I still think he will out score him. Against lesser teams he may even go big on occasion, Giving his price growth another boost.

          Believe the hype, This kid is the real deal and anyone not starting him will be scrambling to find the cash to get him in R3 when his B/E is -150.

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    3. Good luck with that.

      Libba has definitely got the talent, so any signs that he is injury free should be weighed up against price and injury risk.

      For me Libba at $300k is a better bet than Fyfe or Crouch. Once he’s fit and motivated (remember not all of his time off was injury related) he’s far far more likely to play a season than either of those two so called premiums. When was the last time Fyfe ever played a full season?

      That’s right, never. Never ever. And he’s only played close to a full season 2/9 a mere 22% of the time. That’s not good odds, my friends.

      Roberton has been a premium defender, and a heart condition can be cured or treated with medication, similar to any other injury, or in many cases better as there is no underlying joint or tendon weakness, and less likely to be psychological issues. Ask yourself, would you refuse to recruit Docherty because of a discount this year if fit? How about next year at $300k? I doubt it, but he’ll have been out for two years due to injury which is twice as long as Roberton has been out, and have far larger suspicions about his ability to deal with the rigours of AFL football.

      Some of the others though? Brodie Smith has ONE season over 90, and that was 5 years ago, so not recruiting him is less about injury than questions over talent. Dylan Roberton got that twice in his last 3 full seasons.

      Sloane? Can’t take a tag. Probably the most easily taggable “premium” in the league, even more than Daniel Rich.

      Newman and Miles do not represent fallen premiums, just “good” players who have lacked opportunity at their former clubs. For players like that, JLT is a legitimate opportunity to showcase their wares, and at this point, you need a consistently good showing from them.

      I was never on the Miles train to begin with. Newman has outperformed him so far but at this point I wouldn’t go either when both Libba and Roberton look like better options. You can only take a few risks, and there seem to be better ones elsewhere.

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      1. Libba will not score like Fyfe though. Libba is likely to go 90ish like his last two mostly-full seasons. So he’ll need to be traded up at least, and will still bring an injury history suggesting he’ll miss more games.

        When I pick Fyfe its with the knowledge that when I trade him out due to injury he will have averaged 110+ and scored me big points. A premium by average is still a premium while theyre in your team after all – just as a player who averaged 110 before you brought them in means nothing if they start pumping out 60s.

        So for me I’d much prefer to limit my risk to players who are premiums when playing. So Fyfe, z Williams, J Kelly etc are all guys I’m looking at (even Greene!) Because these mid pricers just don’t score enough and are not risk free themselves.

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        1. Difference being of course Libba is half the price of Fyfe. When you recruit Libba you are basically picking him up as a cash cow with the potential for a 110 average.

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    4. For the record, I’m not saying these ‘trendy’ players are necessarily poor chooces, just that we shouldn’t jump without thinking.

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    1. Kelly not playing either JLT just looks like last year where he had lingering injuries. If you don’t consider Fyfe because of Injury history then you simply can’t consider Kelly either.

      GWS are terrible at being transparent with player injuries.

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      1. Spot on Zac.

        Sydney have done the same thing for years. Buddy last year was a classic example.

        The Sydney AFL Teams really need to, at least let the fans believe their stars are going to play, or they simply don’t buy tickets.
        I know there’s a few hard core folks that turn up every week regardless. I don’t want to offend them but I’m sure they know what I mean.

        The AFL turns a blind eye knowing they need to expand in to the Sydney market.

        Watch Horse next time he is asked a question about Buddy’s fitness.

        His left eyebrow twitches every time!

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  5. After reading this, I decided I needed to completely delete my team and start again from scratch. My strategy, which follows the ol’ Father Dougal rule of building your team around the cows, is first picking the 7 players I consider locks (Williams, Cripps, Oliver, Grundy, Gawn, Dangerfield, Heeney) and then filling the rest of my spots with nothing but rookies. I then one by one, starting with the rookie I was least satisfied with, started upgrading rookies to premos until I had no money left. After this, my on-field lines looked like this:

    DEF: 2 premos, 1 mid-pricer (Williams), 3 rookies.

    MID: 4 premos, 4 rookies

    RUCK: 2 premos

    FWD: 4 premos, 2 rookies

    Although on paper this team looks awful, (I’d much rather drop a premo 0r two in the forward line, and upgrade a rookie on another line to someone like Brayshaw or M. Crouch, or Whitfield or Hurn etc. etc.) because the rookies on that line are shaping up to be good (especially the mids) I can actually trade up to the premos I want eventually.

    By starting with 4 premos in the forwards, it mean I have to rely less on the weakest line of rookies in order to upgrade to these players that I’d want. It means although I lose out on about 30-40 points a week early on, I get maximum cash generation, meaning if all goes well, I can go full premo so much quicker than I would be able to if I upgraded the other lines for maximum points early.

    Anyway, sorry for rambling, I hope this all made sense, and hopefully it made you at least have a think about a different approach to your teams. Happy building!

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      1. Absolutely, I felt iffy about picking Mundy, and then felt absolutely gross picking Smith as my 4th premo. I had to keep reminding myself that even though I could be picking M. Crouch or Whitfield with the same cash, it’ll all be for the best in the end.

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        1. I’m stuck at 3. At the moment I have Lincoln McCarthy at 4, but paying $247k for him (no discount) is something deeply discomforting to me.

          The problem isn’t just no decent midpricers, but no decent premiums either.

          Menegola was good in JLT 1 and uninspiring in JLT2, so I swapped for Kelly and cash so I could upgrade Rankine.

          Westhoff? Never scxored that good, never will again. Overpriced. Buddy, McDonald, Gray, Wingard all injured. Not rating Gunston or Breust due to Hawks selection/role issues, especially with adding Wingard into forward/mid mix. Hawkins is an overrated spud who gets a couple of big games and the rest are ordinary. Likewise Riewoldt – the usual inconsistency issues of key forwards, plus Tom Lynch issues. Likewise Hogan for key forward issues.

          Robinson gets suspended too much. Mundy maybe…

          McLean and Dunkley will both get less mid time with Libba back, Wallis may be looking good but by now you’re down at 91 ppg…

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          1. People are scared because of last year but the value option i the forward line is Billings.

            I’m mildly concerned with Heeney, they need him up forward probably for the first 1/3 of the season, but on the other hand he’s good enough to score in that role.

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              1. Darling was a superhero for me after I traded him in, not entirely convinced it wasn’t a purple patch for me though.

                Billings also concerns me as Richo doesn’t like to play him in the middle. Maybe if he gets the sack, then I’ll consider him!

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              2. I’m worried Billings is the new Shaun Higgins. Will tempt and burn us for three or four years and when we all decide “never again” he will mature into a consistent premium that no-one has the balls to pick.

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            1. Billings is still on my possible list. With the extra midfield time he does look good for a 90-95 average. He did well after the byes last year.

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              1. I’m just not sure Billings has the size to play midfield these days. Maybe a bit of outside stuff, but he will never be a full time mid in my book.
                The bigger bodied guys just monster him at stoppage.

                Don’t get me wrong, I think billing is a very skill full player and certainly still has improvement in him. I’m just not sold on his ability to put up consistent numbers without enough Midfield minutes. Particularly playing forward for what could be a struggling side in the Saints.

                Just my 2c worth anyway.

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                1. He can score well on the outside so that doesn’t concern me, It more about him being played HB-W-HF & not dumped in a forward pocket, St Kilda have recruited a bunch of small-mid sized forwards.

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          2. Writing off Menegola because he didn’t light up JLT2 might be rash. For me, he’s a viable alternative to Mundy (who I am running with), and will likely be my first FWD upgrade (yeah, plans, we know how long they last). I had Mundy, Menegola and Dunkley equal, but Menegola has tended to improve (according to some stats in a post the other day) and I don’t know what impact Libba has, if he’s really back to play.

            Summary: don’t close the Menegola book just yet.

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  6. Ahhh Thommo you party pooper, We were indulging in Mid price madness and breakouts, and you are trying to bring us down to earth. Well written.
    I am sticking to my team of pre-preseason guns + rookies (minus injuries) unless there are players in JLT that make it impossible to ignore.

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  7. Is groupthink like when all of the t.r.o.l.l.s here jump on anybody who says Zac merrett isn’t a wise supercoach selection?

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    1. I’m not sure disagreement makes people trolls but there is definite group think happening with some big names mids like Cripps. I can’t say the love is wrong though.

      I agree that Merrett seems a bit risky right now. I prefer M Crouch at that cost.

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    1. Taranto would be a sound selection because Shield gone and Ward now injured, he’ll be in the guts.
      He is: High pick (2) , Full preseason, injury free, 3rd season, increased last season average by 20 points, added scoring opportunity… All these are good signs. That means points generation early for later upgrade or can end up M8.

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    2. Didn’t show much of a ceiling when he played midfield last season, I’m not sure of the hype, maybe if he was a cheaper or a forward.

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      1. If he was a forward I’d be all over him. I can see the appeal – he’s got the talent, he’s higher up the midfield pecking order this year, and, given his age, one would expect his output to remain on an upward trajectory for a good couple of years. I’d definitely take him over a Miles or Liberatore type.

        Ultimately, though, he’s still a speculative pick, and I really prefer for those to be on lines – especially when it looks like the bulk of the good rookies this year are going to be midfielders.

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    3. Taranto is in prime breakout territory like Jeannot said. I’m only avoiding him due to a lack of midfield spots.

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  8. I keep trying to keep a lid on things but this article and Father D’s Rules for Cows seem like they’re trying to pull me in 2 opposite directions – or I’m misreading the advice through an Endone haze.

    This one says pick your premiums before reading anything JLT. Father Dougal says pick your cows before you pick your premiums. I’m adding allsaints amazing JLT stats posts a bone as well – how do I ignore that data, served up on a plate, that even an idiot can read (just the way I like it)?

    Not complaining – I love reading anything SC related, just wondering if anyone else is floundering around in big waves of indecision? Will this season never start??

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    1. I’d say take in a bit of both…….stick with your premos through the JLT games……..plus be wary of the starting rookies once teams are announced. Things will become much clearer in two weeks 😉

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    2. I see what you mean. It was only by pure chance that the articles were published back-to-back bit they do seem contradictory.

      My explanation is this:
      Father Dougal is right in that you need to sort your rookies out as a priority. Cash generation is your most important goal. The second most important goal is to select premiums who will perform at, or out-perform, their price-tags. As I said, you should select most of them before the JLT gives you odd thoughts.
      The way you put the theories together is to have your premiums rated for priority before the JLT but don’t bother making your final team. Wait until you have the ‘must-have’ rookies and then plug as many of those selected premiums into the team. I’m guessing that leaves you with room for a couple of mid-pricers or a dodgy rookie to fill the gap.

      Does that make sense or even work?

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  9. Great write up Thommo,

    I’ve noticed a lot of love for the Grundy/Goldstein R1-2
    setup, versus the Grundy/Gawn option, whilst I agree it frees up a heap of cash to move elsewhere, I need someone to explain to why I wouldn’t just pick Gawn and move on to more pressing issues.

    Is this a form of groupthink?
    Is Gawn injured or is some team mate going to ruin his scoring potential?
    I’d love to hear some advice either way what the coaches think about Gawn @ ruck 2 v Goldy.
    I’ve always paid the money and gone set and forget when it comes to Rucks, and generally over the years it’s gone swimmingly.

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    1. Hi Smurfo, I will try to help you here but people correct me if I am off the line.
      There are few school of thought and Allsaints wrote something on it under Bye Stracture/ Rucks I believe.

      1. There is the Cox effect, which means that since Dean Cox, no Ruckmen have done back to back Top position. G & G are both very expensive, so I you have to start one, Grundy seems like a better options because he will be rucking solo and he doesnt rely solely on rucking to score his points. Gawn on the other end may content with share rucking with Preuss.

      2. Same R13 Bye. So both will miss and you’ll have no ruck cover. Most people believe they may end up with G& G in the end so It is better to save a coin toward rookies that tie it up to too many 600k+ players.

      3. Not owning Grundy could be dangerous because if he start flying again, you may need 2 trades to bring him in and besides you would lose valuable points

      4. Of course all this is speculations. And there are many other valid points. I personally believe that they will both be R1 and R2, in no particular order and after toying with Grundy + Goldstein I will stick to G&G and save a trade.

      And to answer your other question, there is nothing wrong with Gawn. He just seem to lose some love that is. Hope that helps

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    2. I agree with the replies to your comment Smurfo. There is good reasoning backing up those coaches avoiding Gawn.

      It might be incorrect or misguided, and I’m not sure I agree with it, but it does make sense.

      Supercoach will be won or lost in the ruck and forward lines this season.

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  10. Smurfo.

    I’m going Grundy Gawn this year.

    They are both great V/Captains options.I’m not sure I would throw the C on Goldie with a lot of confidence.

    I know it hasn’t happened for years but …they will be 1 and 2 again this year.

    I know they are expensive but I have been giving this a little thought.

    I’m willing to pay overs only for proven Uber Premo Captains choices. Especially the top 2 on one line.

    Hears why..

    Lets take Gawn as an example.

    Every time you use him as V/Captain he actually contributes extra points to” your team”.

    I will try to explain with numbers. ( not my strong suit)

    Say he scores 150 and you take it.
    You would of taken 130 from you V/C .
    So I put that as a 40 point win.( 20x 2)
    lets just say he does that for you 5 times this year. Some times less, sometime more ,but you get the idea.

    Thats 200+ points extra he has scored for “your side”

    For me that has to add up to $

    How much depends on final results

    They just don’t seem quite so expensive when I view them this way.

    Gawn and Grundy all the way.

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