Guns and Rookies or Go Home

Written by Father Dougal on February 26 2018

A pre-season, Cow-Talk like substance

 

So I was working on another post, which I started out with “While there is a lot of strategy in Supercoach, it can all be summed up as “How are you going to fiddle with Guns and Rookies?”” At this point it seems pretty clear to me that GnR is the only viable way to play if you want to win, based on the mechanics of the game. But is it? It feels like GnR or the bottom of the table is a rather lot to just throw out as a given, even though it sort of is. Anyways, that idea alone is enough to write and talk about, thus this post about just that.

Soooo, you mentioned talking, as in dialog….?”

Sigh, yes I did.

Hoody Hoo!”

Dang, it looks like my imaginary interlocutor gets to make another appearance. Anyways…..

Let’s looks at some experimental teams.

Heh, he won’t admit it, but there was a huge pile of rewriting after this part, ’cause he writes all stream of consciousness and does the math as he goes, and this time he kept realizing ways the quick calculations weren’t working quite right, and ended up having to re-do a lot. There was bad language; I was amused.”

Sod off!

See!”

Team Budweiser: All mid-pricers

With $10,000,000 and 30 slots to fill, that’s $333,333 for each player. There won’t be players with exactly those values, but still, you can certainly fill 30 slots with mid-pricers. But, right away you are hurt by low quality captain options. Then of course, those guys usually have playing time risk. And they won’t make much money. $333,333 is priced to score…..oh bugger, I haven’t gotten around to calculating this season’s magic number yet. Please hold while I do some math…..

Please hold? That doesn’t make any sense!”

Quiet, doing math….

Ok, my preliminary and more-than-close-enough-for-this-post calculation of the magic number is 5497.86. That means a $333,333 player is priced to average 60.63. So with 22 of them you get 1334. Let’s assume a captain a ways over the average, since some bloke will rise up out of 30 midpricers, and give a 90 for captain bonus each week. I’m gonna use total points because it turns out trying to do an average doesn’t work, even if it would be easier.

Told you!”

Obscene gerund off! Anyways, I’m counting each slot as playing 22 weeks, and not calculating the byes because it is way time consuming and pretty much a wash. It would help out team Budweiser, but, well, not enough to matter.

$7,333,333 on the pitch for 22 weeks = 29,345 points

22 weeks of captain, assuming someone at this price can score a 95 = 2090

Total of 31,435 points.

So, 31,435 points, or about 1429 a week. Like I said, the bye advantage can’t put lipstick on this team. It’s rather horrible; just like Budweiser. Of course no real team is going to be set up this way, but it is one end of the spectrum, sort of a team-like substance so we know what the low end looks like – much like Budweiser!

Team Corona: Mids n Rookies = Cows on the bench only, all mid-pricers on the field

But lets say you at least put rookies on the bench. Call it an average of $125,000 per slot, for $1,000,000. That means $9,000,000 for 22 players.

$9,000,000 on the pitch for 22 weeks = 36,014 points

22 weeks of captain, assuming someone at this price can score a 110 = 2420

Ok, so this will need its own post later, but to get something for now, say each cow averages 60, that would be about a $330,000 peak, which won’t be reached before they are cashed in, and there is the drop adjustments, and um, call it a $300,000 selling price meaning $175,000 profit on average….

You shouldn’t write stuff that makes no sense to people who didn’t read your posts from last season you know.”

Yeah, but they are in the archive, and I’m gonna write about how pricing works again this season, so it’s sort of like a teaser….? Right, yeah, sorry. Let’s just assume a profit of $175,000 per cow, with that profit spent on rounds 10 and 12. And while some cows brought in mid-season make money too, all teams can bring in mid season cows so I’m calling that a wash and don’t need to include them. I’m also assuming all the cash generated can be used, because again, gets too complicated. Also, when you trade in two cows, you only replace one of them with a gun, so only one cow comes off the pitch. Doesn’t matter for Team Corona but will for later teams.

So, the value of four cows from week 10 onwards is 13 weeks of $700,000 = $9,100,000 for 1,655 points

The value of four cows from week 12 onwards is 11 weeks of $700,000 = $7,700,000 for 1,401 points

Did you miss a week there?”

Nope, that early they miss a week from the bye, and yes in this case it works out.

All added up, that’s 41,490 points. Much better than 31,435, but still not great. Much like Corona compared to Budweiser. And a team with ten cows is, while not ideal, not that unrealistic, and some people will probably try it. Just like Corona.

Team Chimay Grand Reserve: Extreme Guns and Rookies

So to start with, the number of cows you can make use of is limited by trades, one to downgrade and one to upgrade. Of course more often it is two downgrades to one upgrade. So with thirty trades and no need for any trade other than downgrades and upgrades….

HA!!!!!”

Just in theory! I’m still going!

…..so with thirty trades and no need for any trade other than downgrades and upgrades that means 30 cows….which leaves the Guns out. Ok, and there will be injuries. Also, starting with enough cows eventually saves you so much money you can’t spend it on guns! With seventeen cows at $125,000, you have about $605,000 per gun, which is pushing it given the lack of high priced forwards and defenders. Also, that is nine on field cows, which is a *lot*. Of course we did say team Budweiser as an extreme end case, so let’s try this one.

Why not eighteen cows?”

Because that leaves $640,000 per gun, which can’t really be spent.

So, a familiar start:

$9,000,000 on the pitch for 22 weeks = 36,014 points

22 weeks of captain, assuming someone at this price can score a 110 = 2420

But, and this is a Kardashian sized but.

We are paying $125,000 per cow for nine cows who will score 60, meaning each cow is providing 37.26 points over what team Chimay is paying for, for a total of 335 additional points per week. Now we’re cooking with gas!

What the heck does that mean? Are you just saying that because you heard Bugs Bunny say it once?”

Um, yes, well, it sounded good when Bugs said it. Anyways, those extra points do end up replaced when we harvest and spend the cows, but as mentioned before, two cow’s money only goes to one spot, thus the net effect is positive.

The value of four cows from week 10 onwards is 13 weeks of $700,000 = $9,100,000 for 1,655 points

The value of four cows from week 12 onwards is 11 weeks of $700,000 = $7,700,000 for 1,401 points

The value of five cows from week 14 onwards is 10 weeks of $875,000 = $8,750,000 for 1,592 points

The value of four cows from week 16 onwards is 8 weeks of $700,000 = $5,600,000 for 1,019 points

The above-cost value of cows on field

The value of cows on field from week 1 to 9 is 37.26 * 9 * 9 = 3018 points

The value of cows on field from week 10 to 11 is 37.26 * 7 * 2 = 522 points

The value of cows on field from week 12 to 13 is 37.26 * 5 * 2 = 373 points

The value of cows on field from week 14 to 15 is 37.26 * 2 * 2 = 149 points

The value of cows on field from week 16 onwards is 0

So a total of 48,163 points.

That’s a big difference!

Yeah, but remember we’re testing an extreme. More importantly we’re assuming the rookies to allow this exist, which they probably don’t. But if they did, yeah, big difference. Oh, and my own current team has eighteen cows, so maybe not so crazy!

Or maybe extra crazy!”

Heh, more likely. So anyways, awesome-ish but hard to manage in practice. Sort of like Chimay Grand Reserve. My analogy is weaker here but gonna make it anyway. Easier to buy great beer than win at Supercoach!

Team Guinness: Realistic Guns and Rookies.

So, lets try a more realistic team. This time we’ll have six playing rookies. That means three less cash producers than Team Chimay. I feel six cows on the pitch is pretty normal. I looked at five, but that really hurt the Guns part of the team. With a total of 14 cows we have about $515,600 per gun. Almost feels low!

So, a familiar start:

$9,000,000 on the pitch for 22 weeks = 36,014 points

22 weeks of captain, assuming someone at this price can score a 110 = 2420

The value of four cows from week 10 onward is 13 weeks of $700,000 = $9,100,000 for 1,655 points

The value of four cows from week 12 onward is 11 weeks of $700,000 = $7,700,000 for 1,401 points

The value of five cows from week 14 onward is 10 weeks of $875,000 = $8,750,000 for 1,592 points

The value of one cow from week 16 onward is 8 weeks of $175,000 = $1,400,000 for 255 points

The above-cost value of cows on field

The value of cows on field from week 1 to 9 is 37.26 * 6 * 9 = 2012 points

The value of cows on field from week 10 to 11 is 37.26 * 4 * 2 = 298 points

The value of cows on field from week 12 to 13 is 37.26 * 2 * 2 = 149 points

The value of cows on field from week 14 onward is 0

So a total of 45,796 points.

Added all up that’s lower then team Chimay by 913, but higher than team Corona by 5760.

Are you sure you didn’t mess up with the whole 22 vs 23 rounds and bye thing?”

I probably did. For some reason beer has joined the team today, can’t be helping. No, I’m not blaming you, beer, you’re my friend, yes, my precious friend, all the errors are my fault not yours, shhhh…..Um, anyways, lets go on…..

Hmm, that Chimay total would be good but not great last season, but remember I didn’t put in byes, and assumed that average performance was what was paid for, when I bet it is often higher. Also left out selling downgrade targets that made money.  And a 60 point average for cows might be low, which is good for testing but may under-value cows. These numbers are for comparing, not projecting.

Yeah, well, so what?”

What do you mean so what, all those lovely numbers and you want some sort of meaning from it all!??

Exactly”

Oh, well, fair enough.

It means that, by the math, the more on field cows you start with, up to but not over seventeen, the better off your team is by the end of the season. Now this does assume that the cows are worth having; obviously if there are not seventeen cows with enough job security and potential to be worth owning, then you want all the ones worth having and no others. Last season we had a bit of a cow-pocalypse and I don’t think there were that many cows. This season I’m not sure, but I’m planning to follow Father Dogual’s first rule of cow-quisition – “Start the season with as many good cows as you can get, with a maximum of 17.”

Are you sure you should say 17?”

Hmm, okay, the revised version of Father Dogual’s first rule of cow-quisition – “Start the season with as many good cows as you can get, up to where you have undesired left-over money.”

Wait, rules of cow-quisition? Nerd.”

Guilty

What are the rest of the rules of cow-quisition?”

Future post. 🙂

Wasn’t there some other point to this whole thing?”

Right. “Gun and Rookies or you’re not serious.” Yeah. In addition to all the reasons mid-pricers are dodgy, like lack of upside and rarely being who you want to end the season with, there are clear and now demonstrated advantages to putting rookies not only on the bench but on the pitch, in addition to the obvious benefit of cash generation. I now feel perfectly comfortable saying that GnR or some variant of it is the only serious approach to winning Supercoach.

Back to that other post…..

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22 thoughts on “Guns and Rookies or Go Home”

  1. Yes words of wisdom from FD again. The main issue is how good are this years crop of rookies. Last year was worst I can ever remember. Pure guns and rookies would have left many struggling

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  2. I heard FD was in town, so thought I’d drop by myself for a Guinness. An excellent analytical piece – even though I only barely digested 1/2 of it the first time. Essential reading for serious coaches.

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  3. Firstly brilliant post. Even though my head hurts now. Secondly I think with how close the afl was last year and this, I think there’s merit to a midpricer and rookie option. How would You like a Challenge? If be happy to start a midpricer and rookie team (or my “wife”) and add it into the SCT group to see if I finish higher than your GnR team, assuming your going GnR. Shall we say 420k and under for backs, rucks n forwards and 480 for mids?

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        1. How about something like this?

          Mills, Saad, KKolodjashnij, McGrath, Angus Brayshaw, Bonner, (Doedee, Keeffe)
          Walters, McLean, Barlow, Coniglio, Redden, Petracca, Hanley, O’Meara, (Armitage, Andrew Brayshaw, Dow)
          Leuenberger, Lycett, (English)
          Neal-Bullen, CCurnow, MRobinson, Sicily, Lobb, Christensen, (Stephenson, Higgins)

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