“He’s Had An Excellent Pre-Season”

Written by MJ on March 24 2015

If I had a dollar every time a commentator has said “He’s had an excellent pre-season” (or something to that effect), I’d be a very wealthy man. This got me thinking. Does an excellent pre-season really translate into a prosperous home and away season? Using 2014’s pre-season scores and SCT’s All-In-One NAB Challenge Statistical Beast, I dove into the wonderful world of stats to find out.

There were seven players to hit 100+ in all three of their NAB Challenge matches last season, with various results in the 2014 home and away season.

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Pendlebury, Malceski, Deledio and Macrae all managed to average 100+ for the season, while Sam Mitchell was well on track before pinging a hamstring very early in R7 for just 9 points. He averaged 98 from his 12 other games when that score is removed. Adam Cooney also tore his hamstring after averaging a semi-respectable 93 from his first 11 games in 2014. Three consecutive games with red/green vests brought his season average crashing down. Koby Stevens was a definite pre-season ruse, only raising his bat once in R2, sucking in plenty of owners in the NAB Challenge to average a dismal 66.8 in 2014.

Only one falls into this category for 2015; Heritier Lumumba ($417k DEF/MID). He is certainly one you could label as having an “Excellent Pre-Season”, collecting disposal figures of 19, 26 and 31 in NAB 1, 2 and 3 respectively. As Schwarzwalder appropriately suggested in his Ballsy Move post, you need sufficient sized aggots to selecting, having never averaged above 88 points in a season before.

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How will Lumumba go in 2015?

Sorry, there are no polls available at the moment.

Then there are the lads who have hit the ton twice in the NAB Challenge. Let’s firstly have a look at 2014’s numbers:

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8 of the 23 players who achieved two 100+ games went on to average 100+ for the season, while 9 of them went below 90 ppg. Does that fill you with a whole heap of confidence? Probably not to a huge degree, but most of them did reasonably well.

So who has hit the ton on two occasions in the 2015 NAB Challenge?

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No doubt, a lot of those guys are sitting in your team. Even more in the SCTTL Pre-Season Bolters!

How many of them will we be able to highlight as green cells at the end of the season? And how many will be dished out a red one? I for one, can’t wait to find out!

Lessons to take from 2014 into 2015:
– While it’s great to have a good showing of pre-season scores under their belt, we need to keep in mind that it’s only three games. In total, 12 of the 30 players who notched tons in two or three 2014 NAB Challenge games averaged 100+ for the home and away season.
– Plenty of the 2015 NAB Challenge standouts will do very well, but further research should be taken before blindly selecting based off three games worth of statistics. You don’t want to end up with the next Koby Stevens (apologies Koby, I’m sure you’re a nice guy, but you deceived a few people last pre-season).
– SuperCoach is a difficult game, and it takes a lot of nous to pick the diamonds from the rough.

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17 thoughts on ““He’s Had An Excellent Pre-Season””

  1. Great job! Gray is in and out of my team atm. I keep thinking he’s a tad overpriced and with a hard run he may drop…then I think of losing all the points he could make me…home on round 1 hurry up!!

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  2. Nice work MJ! Good to have the stats laid out for us. It’s not necessarily a strong showing that is needed in the NAB games. So long as the players get through a pre-season injury-free, they give themselves every chance to perform during the regular season. What’s the first excuse you’ll hear about someone who has dropped off in form? ‘He had a rough pre-season…….he didn’t/couldn’t complete every training simulation during the pre-season…….had some niggles over the pre-season and so on’ Maric, Steven and Griffen spring to mind just from last year. Couldn’t complete the training and they’re playing catch-up all year.
    Looks like I’ll be flipping a coin on Lumumba next week. Don’t think he’s a great player, but he really is the best of a bad bunch at Melbourne. Does look to be the go-to-guy coming out of defence……..

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  3. Geez, I’ve gotta find some serious time to sit down and sort out my SC team. Sooooo many posts to trawl through. Such extensive amounts of information. Argh!!!!!!!

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