In Hindsight – June 2017

Written by Schwarzwalder on June 9 2017

Jack of ‘Salamander‘ fame (#665 overall), has requested a ‘Hindsight’ thread through our Polling Station……….the easiest way to get your discussion threads happening at SCT!

After the endless hours of research during pre-season, there are certain decisions that we commit to before Rd1.  While it all seems straight-forward now, we’d all love a bit of hindsight earlier 😉  So this is a time for reflection on the season so far………

If you’d be so kind to answer the following questions for Jack:

* Who was your first player picked this season?  Has that player worked out well for you?

* Who/What has been your biggest regret till now?

* What are some of the better decisions you’ve made till now?

* Who is the player that ‘got away’?

* Which player would you most like to trade in right now?

* Any lessons learned for the future?

Personally, I didn’t have the guts to run with a ‘Sandi-Witts’ Ruck line-up with a Nankervis Swingman back-up.  If you started with those guys, then you would’ve been able to load up better in the midfield and have enough left over for Doc in the back line.  In hindsight, the Coaches that started with that line-up have had a huge advantage till now.

How would you change your set-up in hindsight?

 

 

5
0


Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom

25 thoughts on “In Hindsight – June 2017”

  1. If you’d be so kind to answer the following questions for Jack: -Sure, good idea to see what we are thinking now as well as at the end of the season when we should do this again.

    * Who was your first player picked this season? Has that player worked out well for you? -I had several who went in right away and never came out. Not sure I can say one was first:
    Dangerfield – Well
    Zac Williams – Well
    Laird – Well
    Dahlhause – Well

    * Who/What has been your biggest regret till now? – Chickening out of cheap rookies with unknown JS in favor of more expensive rookies and mid pricers.

    * What are some of the better decisions you’ve made till now? – Sandi-Witts & Nankervis. Finding a way to start with Doc. Getting Yeo in early. Thinking about the byes during initial team selection. Leaving older guys out of the starting team with the option of bringing them in later in case last year was their last good one. (Shaw, Rance, Riewoldt)

    * Who is the player that ‘got away’? – Steele. I had him and Yeo and Duncan as breakout candidates last season and chickened out on starting with any of the this season. Was a year off on all three. I’ve been kicking myself for not starting with Yeo and Steele.

    * Which player would you most like to trade in right now? – Rocky. No, Dusty, no, Rocky, Brad, Janet, Rocky, Unh.

    * Any lessons learned for the future? – Better to risk injury (Taylor Adams) than risk performance (Roughy). Never risk both (O’Meara) Cheap rookies good, not cheap rookies mostly bad. Better to load up on cheap rookies and see which ones end up with jobs than try to pick and end up with all the ones without jobs. (I had Eddy and Pickett, did not have Butler and Houston) It is even harder than I thought to make good corrective trades, and I started thinking it was hard.

    16

    0
    1. Oh, How about also, what lesson(s) are you still waiting to learn?

      The Return of the Discounted Premiums. Scott Selwood (expecting to go well) Mitch Wallis (expecting to go ok, with possibility of well and chance of fail.) Mike Hibberd (expecting to go okay or better) I expect to have all them at the end of R12…..

      5

      1
  2. First picked – Danger and I cannot complain.

    Regret – starting with JOM and missing Houston.

    Good decision – Sandi Witts Nank combo. Also going the journey with Beams and Taranto.

    Who got away – Adams. I was hesitant on injury history.

    Who would I trade in – Sloan or Dusty

    Lesson learnt – be very wary of player coming back from loong injury such as JOM.

    3

    0
  3. Who was your first player picked this season?  Has that player worked out well for you?

    First picked player was Dangerfield and the only complaint would be captaining him for a sub 100 score.

    Who/What has been your biggest regret till now?

    Selecting H Shaw, S Burgoyne, M Priddis and N Riewoldt over S Docherty, T Adams, R Sloane, L Dahlhaus for durability and consistency purposes.

    Also trading Riewoldt to Goldstein in Round 2 thus moving Witts to R3 which was a severe overreaction to Witts performance first up (he had the lowest HTA percentage of Round 1 and more than half of his points were due to tackles)

    What are some of the better decisions you’ve made till now?

    Keeping Taranto, WHE, Turner, Stewart and SPP to the byes (WHE and Turner are now T Lynch and L Dahlhaus, with Taranto, SPP and Stewart to be turned into J Macrae, R Sloane/T Rockliff, J Lloyd in the next fortnight).

    Who is the player that ‘got away’?

    R Sloane: Was locked in due to their easy draw against bottom teams and at Adelaide Oval but his pre season face injury scared me off due to his past history with the injury.

    T Adams: Was not selected for durability purposes and is likely not to make my side as funds might not permit him to be brought in as the 7th defender.

    Which player would you most like to trade in right now?
    T Rockliff- Combined average post bye since 2013: 124.53 from 40

    Any lessons learned for the future?

    To select more mid price/speculative selections as I only had 2 this year(Sandi/Roughead) and to select a couple of injury prone players (i.e. players like Adams) as this year’s team was risk averse.

    6

    0
  4. * Who was your first player picked this season? Has that player worked out well for you?

    Patrick Dangerfield. I suspect most people’s first choice. I’m not unhappy about how his season has unfolded, but there is an argument to be made that it would have been better to pick him up when his price dropped (down to 570k from memory).

    * Who/What has been your biggest regret till now?

    Heath Shaw and or Kade Simpson over Docherty. At the start of the season i felt like it was splitting hairs between them, so i went with the lower price options. Normally i have a rule for these circumstances that i will go with the youth option. In hindsight I should have stuck with that.

    Not starting with Taylor Adams.

    Roughhead over Nank.

    * What are some of the better decisions you’ve made till now?

    Trading in Sam Jacobs and Toby Nankervis at a low price when big Maxxy when down and have them both increase in value. Using the extra cash for trading flexibility.

    Bringing in Dusty at his lowest price right before an upturn in form.

    Starting with Laird and Macrae.

    * Who is the player that ‘got away’?

    Docherty and Taylor Adams. I’d love to bring in both, but at this stage it’s likely I’ll only afford one.

    * Which player would you most like to trade in right now?

    Debating whether to bring in Tom a Rockliff this weekend, or wait for the Bont to drop in price next week or the week after.

    * Any lessons learned for the future?

    Overall i think my decision making has been sound this year. We could easily be in a place where Heath Shaw is flying and Docherty threw up a couple of quiet scores to allow us to bring him in at a lower price. Taylor Adams could have continued with his injury woes. It goes to show how much luck is involved with supercoach and there are so many 50/50 decisions that can go either way.

    7

    0
  5. (In Hindsight I’m not a fan of this many Thursday games……especially dragging out seven games over five days. It’s a bit much)

    17

    1
    1. Yep, a long weekend should have 9 games, not 6. And don’t get me started on the fact we have Thursday games during the bye rounds.

      Would much prefer the old split round we used to have for the byes where we have 7 games one weekend and then a couple of feature games the next weekend. Much better system IMO.

      3

      0
  6. 1st Picked -Danger
    Biggest regret Not starting Sloane and not corrective trading Ward for Murphy.
    Better decisions to now. Going Mid pricers in Oliver, Kelly, Steele,Nank and sticking with Newman.Doc and Adams also happy as prems backs.
    What player would you trade in now?
    Wanted Wallis feel he’ll be consistent 85-110 type of player which will be good for a fwd.
    Lessons learned?
    Picking the right mid pricer will be the way of the future now the expansion teams have settled.
    Overall
    Pretty happy with the result thus far , obviously not happy with CD innocuous scoring methods which I’m convinced is rigged( insert Bonts score in comparison
    With JPK here.) to be honest Bonts scores makes me ill, and will only see him scored correctly when whoever at CD trades him out of his team!!
    Like roos your daddy says , I’ve had a bit luck this year and you need it.

    2

    0
  7. * Who was your first player picked this season? Has that player worked out well for you?

    Sam Docherty. I think I am in love with this man, has actually exceeded my expectations, picking him has definitely worked out for me.

    * Who/What has been your biggest regret till now?

    Heath bloody Shaw. It was either him or Adams and I chose Shaw cos I didn’t trust Adams’ durability. I shouldn’t have trusted Heater’s form!

    Also starting Jaeger, I shouldn’t have bought into the hype!

    * What are some of the better decisions you’ve made till now?

    Until the last couple of week, Sandiwitts has paid serious dividends, especially in a year where there are no stand-out rucks.

    * Who is the player that ‘got away’?

    Lachie Neale. I ALMOST started with him, but was scared off by his high price tag and the return of Fyfe.

    * Which player would you most like to trade in right now?

    A healthy Max Gawn.

    * Any lessons learned for the future?

    Don’t be afraid to go against the grain! A lot of my “safe” picks this year (Shaw, Fyfe, Treloar) haven’t paid off, whereas my riskier picks (Sandiwitts, Nank) did.

    7

    0
  8. * Who was your first player picked this season? Has that player worked out well for you?
    – Danger and Doch and i cannot complain

    * Who/What has been your biggest regret till now?
    – 3 lettters… JOM. Not only did i start him i kept him for far too long hoping he would come could.

    * What are some of the better decisions you’ve made till now?
    – ummmmmmm next question ?

    * Who is the player that ‘got away’?
    – C. Oliver. Literally could of got him instead of JOM. That one hurts. Also not picking Steele and now possibly not getting Scooter Selwood.
    – Not starting with Witts

    * Which player would you most like to trade in right now?
    – Pendles or Dusty

    * Any lessons learned for the future?
    – Don’t go for mid pricers with terrible injury pasts.
    – Overall i don’t think ive made too many bad decisions with most of my trades paying off.

    1

    0
  9. First picked – Laird and Adams were my first selections and they have worked out very nicely thus far so no complaints there.

    Regret – number 1 on this list is picking Shaw over Docherty but also starting with injury prone mid-pricer D Swallow instead of Marchbank in defence.

    Good decision – Holding onto premos of Hanners, Treloar and Beams and bearing the fruits of that at the moment.

    Who got away – Nank. Wasn’t sold but definitely missed out there.

    Who would I trade in – Rocky and will be doing it this week

    Lesson learnt – Hold your premos and don’t pick injury prone mid-price players.

    1

    0
  10. – Dangerfield – yes!

    – picking heath shaw over doch and adams, figured he was fairly priced whereas doch was overpriced and would eventually drop and adams would breakdown early. Believing the hype re Walters and picking him over Macrae / Lynch a couple of weeks ago. figured he would at least make some coin…he is looking like losing money after that 49!

    – Trading Goldy to Stef Martin in rd2 when he was a late out, bypassing JOM / Roughy / Swallow and going with steele and nank instead. Starting with Jelwood.

    – Jack macrae, should have started with him, dont think I will end up getting him in team now

    – Rocky (if I could guarantee he would remain injury free) or Macrae if I had space in forward / mids and more trades remaining

    – Pretty happy overall with the season, bit low on trades but higher than I have ever been before in ranking. If I had time again would avoid high priced rookies unless they were mature age guys / guys coming back from injury (so wouldnt pick florent / taranto, happy with WHE / MBank and wouldve also picked Turner) and also wouldnt pick guys from freo (Fyfe, sandy, Ballic, walters!)

    3

    0
  11. Who was your first player picked this season? Has that player worked out well for you?
    Goldy as my first ruckman, that went pear shaped early and I didn’t have nank to cover for him. He has done better now once preuss was gone but a very rough start

    * Who/What has been your biggest regret till now?
    O’meara 100%

    * What are some of the better decisions you’ve made till now?
    Not going sideways on O’meara to Swallow, starting with Laird Doc and Adams, bringing in Yeo and Hibberd early saving 100k+

    * Who is the player that ‘got away’?
    I managed to recover danger but he went up 80k before I got him and I had the chance to get him the weeks before, so he slightly got away. Can’t name any I haven’t gotten that I wanted

    * Which player would you most like to trade in right now?
    Rocky or Dusty

    * Any lessons learned for the future?
    Follow my gut more because those are the decisions that get can get you ahead of the pack.

    1

    0
  12. 1. Dangerfield. Obvious Captain/VC option each week.

    2. Falling for JOM.

    3. Seeing the value in Laird, Adams and Macrae.

    4. Rockliff. Tossed up between him and Fyfe and went the latter.

    5. Rockliff.

    6. Don’t believe all the “Guns and Rookies” hype. A team with any four of Beams, Yeo, Kelly, Murphy, Oliver or Ebert instead of two of Priddis, S. Mitchell, Parker, Ward, Gray or Stevens and two rookies would be an average of 80 points better each week. And then they could have picked up the likes of Pendlebury, Martin, Dangerfield, Kennedy or Bontempelli at seriously reduced prices during the season.

    3

    0
  13. * Who was your first player picked this season? Has that player worked out well for you?
    Dangerfield – yes. Looks like a win/win situation for everyone really, as long as you picked him up 4 weeks ago.

    * Who/What has been your biggest regret till now?
    Not starting Adams and going for Howe instead. Next weeks bye looks very bad with 4 Collingwood premiums now I’ve bought him in. Buying into JOM/Roughead hype. They were never in my team (Rockiff+Houston instead) until the last few weeks of team developments.

    * What are some of the better decisions you’ve made till now?
    SandiWitts with Nankervis back up – allowed the rookies to be pushed off field ASAP. Swapping Shaw to Docherty 10min before game 1 bouncedown – would be ranked 2,500 had I not made that move based purely on lost points. My trades have been on point all season (for now) and although burnt them fast, I’ve drastically improved my team each week.

    * Who is the player that ‘got away’?
    Dusty Martin. Was between him and J.Selwood – not displeased with Jelwood the last 3 weeks but Dusty has been a next step up (plus $50k cheaper at the time).

    * Which player would you most like to trade in right now?
    Dusty Martin.

    * Any lessons learned for the future?
    Need to look at value now the rookie situation is returning to normal post expansion clubs + Essendon saga. Last years draft was “deep” yet we still seemed to be short on the good/cheap prospects.

    4

    0
  14. * Who was your first player picked this season? Has that player worked out well for you?
    – Dangerfield, Dahlhaus and Fyfe. All keepers, although Fyfe may be a luxury trade towards the end of the season.

    * Who/What has been your biggest regret till now?
    I’m ranked 1100~, so doing pretty well. But could have done better if I hadn’t made the following mistakes.
    – Trading out Kayne Turner after r6 @ 241k. Now he’s @ 353k.
    – Wasting 2 trades on Swallow and O’Meara.

    * What are some of the better decisions you’ve made till now?
    – Starting with Sandi/Witts/Nank as rucks.
    – 4 weeks ago I had the choice between Heath Shaw and Zac Williams. A poll suggested I pick Shaw, but I went the other way.
    – Sticking with Taranto, Stewart, SPP, etc. until now to maximize price.
    – Having faith in my premiums: Stuck with Treloar after 2 scores in the 70’s and missing a week, and he has rewarded me with 120+ each of the past 3 rounds. Likewise with J.Selwood – 73,95,78 followed by 126,134,151.
    – Actually planning my byes ahead – no donuts for any of the bye rounds.

    * Who is the player that ‘got away’?
    – I wanted to pick Clayton Oliver after the JLT series, but was worried that there wouldn’t be enough points to go around with the rest of the Melbourne mids like Jones, Lewis, Viney, etc.

    * Which player would you most like to trade in right now?
    – Need one more premo for my mids. Looking at Neale or Martin.

    * Any lessons learned for the future?
    – Avoid mid-pricers who might make a little cash, but who will not be top6 –
    looking at Roughhead and D. Swallow here. Having said that, this is also why I avoided Oliver and Marc Murphy… wait, have I even learned anything here??

    6

    0
  15. First picked – Danger/Bont/Macrae/Dahl/Laird, all good.

    Regret – not having the guts to start witts/nank/Sandi combo (skipped Witts and started Grundy instead)

    Starting to many mid pricers (Roughy, JOM, Mills)

    Good decision – trading Callum Mills (who I stupidly inserted into my squad as my last pick) to Otten round 3.

    Also held onto Taranto, McGrath to maximise cash – they’ll both be gone next week though for premos!

    Who got away – Adams, Witts.

    Who would I trade in – Adams (now waiting until after the bye)

    Lesson learnt – go back to guns and rookies, even a higher priced rookie is better than a mid-pricer with dodgy injury history! (exhibit A = J Omera)

    6

    0
  16. Dashing Donkeys@SCT Rank 3K

    1. Doc/ Danger.

    2 Shaw instead of Adams.JOM not Oliver. Missing Butler, Huston ,SPS .Trading Taranto and Newman early. Not trusting my gut on Josh Kelly and Zac Jones.(early).

    3. Went Nank Witts Sandi. Turned JOM into Sloane R3. Picked L Neale from the start. Getting Dusty cheap at M7. Sorting my bye strategy for once!

    4. Adams and Macrea were the ones that got away.

    5. I want Bont as my last Mid and I should get him for $520K next week. Bargain!

    My last upgrade will be Roughie to Maxy Gawn. Swinging Nank back to F5.

    Lessons learnt is listen to my gut and Bye strategy is important.

    Hoping to win a few leagues and stay in the top 5K overall.

    2

    0
  17. Since I’m the one responsible for this thread, I should probably make a contribution:

    – Who was your first player picked this season? Has that player worked out well for you?

    I have the slightly odd habit of starting with my backline, so Sam Docherty was my first picked. Needless to say, I’m very happy with him; in all likelihood, he will continue to be my first picked for the next decade.

    – Who/What has been your biggest regret till now?

    An obvious one would be my buying into the hype surrounding O’Meara, Roughead, and Brett Eddy. I dealt with these mistakes early on, but I wish I hadn’t had to spend the trades fixing them to begin with.

    A bigger regret, however, would be the conservativeness of my initial lineup. Having started with a stupid left-field team in 2016, and with it having ended in disaster, I was determined to field a ‘sensible’ starting team this year. However, the rookie situation this year has meant that a traditional guns and rookies approach has proved less than fruitful. Luckily, as early as round 1 I saw the error of my ways, and set about fixing it, spending a few early trades pivoting from a highly rookie-dependent strategy to a more value-oriented one. This was absolutely the right decision, but I wish had to make those trades to begin with.

    One other regret that I have is not planning earlier for the bye rounds. I figured that serious bye planning would be something that mattered if you were at the very pointy end of the competition, where every last point counts, but I wasn’t going to be ranked anywhere near highly enough to justify worrying about such things. Fast forward to the start of round 11, and I was ranked 276th. Oops!

    – What are some of the better decisions you’ve made till now?

    Being ranked as highly as I am, I think it’s fair to say that I’ve made a number of good decisions this season, but the best one has undoubtedly been my initial pivot in overall strategy after round 1, implemented through a ballsy trading strategy that can be summed up as ‘go hard, go early, go value.’ There may come a point at which I fly too close to the sun, but everything I’ve done so far has worked out beautifully.

    Some specific decisions that deserve honourable mentions:

    — Trading Nick Riewoldt and Brett Eddy to Jack Steele and WHE in round 2.

    — Trading Shaw to Lloyd early in the season.

    — Cameron Pedersen.

    — SandiWitts.

    — Going early on Isaac Heeney.

    – Who is the player that ‘got away’?

    Marc Murphy and Clayton Oliver.

    – Which player would you most like to trade in right now?

    Probably Dustin Martin, but Tom Mitchell and Dayne Zorko are very appealing.

    – Any lessons learned for the future?

    Two:

    1) Guns & Rookies only works if there is a good supply of rookies.
    2) Overtrading isn’t overtrading when it’s productive.

    0

    0

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *