Marsh Series Match Stats – WCE v ESS

Written by allsaints on February 28 2020

Hi all

Just a quick post so we’ve something to look at lunchtime on a Friday …

WCE v ESS

Notable Absentees:

WCE: Elliott YEO, Andrew GAFF, Jeremy McGOVERN, Jack DARLING and Brad SHEPPARD

ESS: Dyson HEPPELL, TBC, Adam SAAD, Cale HOOKER and Jake STRINGER

Match Stats Analysis (ranked by $/PPM)

I have no idea how Harrison JONES scored SO many SuperCoach points with those stats, but I thought he looked great for a 70kg future prospect.  May even get a few games depending on when Stringer is back and whether they play Hooker front or back; showed real promise.

Bailey WILLIAMS (DEF/RUC) looked very good and according to one of our fave SCTers Matteo, he is pushing for the #2 ruck spot ahead of both Vardy and Hickey.  Could well earn it, if he puts in another polished performance in MS2 for the Eagles.

Last year’s mid-season draft Will SNELLING continues to impress, but can’t help feeling he’s a trap given his role as a small FWD and his horrible starting price.  Still, he delivered the numbers last season and the fact that he has that uncanny knack of ‘right place, right time’, I think we should watch him again in MS2.

Francis WATSON is another who impresses me and has been in my team as a placeholder for months (those who follow me on the Twitter will know that). I know he’s a bit of a cult hero with Eagles fans but have no idea about his JS.  Is nicely priced if he gets a solid run.

There are plenty to watch in game2 for ESS.  BerZerk and Townsend as cheapies and Devon SMITH as an ‘underpricer’ for a better steer on his role.  He was permanent half-forward in the first half (yuk), before switching to both inside and outside in the second half (better).

I got burned by Jordan RIDLEY last year after his impressive JLT numbers duped me, so am not gonna mention him.

Oops, you just did

Yeah well, I think that’s all for now.  What did everyone else think?  Have I missed anybody (apart from Parish and McGrath)?  Until Heppell plays, I’m not gonna have an informed opinion on either, so I’ll just say nothing.

 

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30 thoughts on “Marsh Series Match Stats – WCE v ESS”

  1. Cheers for the stats.
    My thoughts/queries coming out of this game;
    -I am less confident with T.Kelly @ M5, if he only just hits the ton in high TOG with Gaff/Yeo out.
    -Bailey Williams could take R3 as a floating-donut-small-cow-hybrid.
    -Josh Kennedy only 363k in a wide open forward line but ignore ignore ignore, his only ton last year again came from 7 goals. He’s no longer supercoach relevant!!
    -Eyes on BerZerk for next Marsh game.

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  2. DP3 was the one player that really impressed last night.

    Could see him averaging 100 when he is priced at 85.7 he is going to come into serious consideration for me.

    Problem is he is currently competing with Greenwood, Gresham and Petracca for my team.

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    1. DP having the round 12 bye might just get him in my team….I am stacked for that round atm. He fits all FD’s criteria for a breakout or career season.

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  3. As a bombers fan I was delighted with last night….reckon weagles were closer to full strength than us. Lack of key fwd is a big problem so Jones might get a run sooner than later..Stewart looks to be the only other option, and the big show is still to appear. Slick ball movement was the key, and I reckon that might be achilles heel for weagles with the likes of Hurn, Schofield, Barass down back.
    Quite happy with Smith…slow start as expected, but an average of 90 for a cheap f5 will do me nicely while downgrades sort themselves out.

    On a sad note…..I had to see my psychiatrist this morning. The lack of obvious rookies other than rowell is causing me stress, especially as so many players are out of pre-season rd 1 due to tonights game….thought more rookies would be showing us their stuff.

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    1. “reckon weagles were closer to full strength than us.”
      WCE Missing: Yeo, Gaff, Darling, McGovern – All-Australians. Sheppard (AA Squad 2019)
      *confused emoji*

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        1. Sorry guys I should have looked in more detail I was gakijgn it from the key missing players at the top of the post. I’ll be eating humble pie for dinner 😉

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  4. Tell you what, if Gawn is anything less than 100% by round one, I’m giving serious consideration to NicNat at R2 and Williams at R3.

    The odds of NicNat being a season-long keeper are, admittedly, slim. But if he jumps out the gate with a few big scores, and Gawn drops a few ~100s, their gap between their prices will narrow dramatically. And an extra $240k in the bank is huuuuuge.

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    1. Yep….Nicnat really had some serious opposition last night…not. His injury record should be ignored at your peril !! Anyone not starting Gawn will do so in the knowledge that unless there is a massive price fall, it will most likely take two trades to get him in.

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        1. With all due respect, Gawns had an injury interrupted preseason. He very well could drop a few sub 100 scores before he builds into the back half of the year.

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        2. I didn’t tu or td but I have gone Gawnless ever since his onkiry, as I think he will have his tog slightly lower (assuming he plays Round 1) to start the year which will result in lower scores and a cheaper price to buy into.

          But then, after hearing Roberton played quite well, I changed my team to fit him in and came up with.

          IN: Roberton, Gawn
          OUT: Whitfield, Jacobs

          I don’t know I think it improves my team. Obviously it’s assuming Gawn & Roberton are good to go Round 1. But I reckon points wise it looks better and I get another captain option. Also, moving Hill to the FWD line looks better as I have a few back from injury down BACK.

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          1. On the other hand I do see a weakness in starting Grawndy (and the trusted set and forget strategy) that was apparent in 2019 and could happen again. I call it Reilly O’Brien 2019.

            You are pretty much shutting the door on any rookie comes from nowhere, ala Reilly O’Brien 2019

            De Koning, Draper, Meek, Knoll, Xerri, Williams, Cameron etc.
            If one of these guys becomes their clubs number 1 ruckmen, I quite happily downgrade Jacobs into them and feast on their points……But if I have Grawndy, I won’t wanna do this.

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  5. I didn’t TD but…

    I just find it funny reading so many people dismiss any other option than Gawn at R2.
    Nicnat is very injury prone & probably not who I’d start but I do believe lycett & ROB should be seriously considered would love to see Jacobs play a Marsh game he may still provide value if he can go 90+ and the $$$ saved boosts ya squad substantially .. some people like to be different and not just follow the crowd… I may very well go Gawn myself but don’t tell anyone that wants to stray from the pack that there stupid n crap team you MUST start Grandy etc etc…

    Not that that’s you wighty but you see it a lot in the rate my team thread…

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    1. I agree with you MAV. I currently have big Max in my team atm and have constantly toyed with the idea of going with Jacobs. I think he has a point to prove to Adelaide after they dumped him and he’ll be playing in a much better midfield .

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    2. I gave a big t/d for 2 reasons:

      1 – I find most of the nic nat injury prone stuff a bit lazy analysis. Yep there’s risk there. But as long as you’re aware of that and planning accordingly then i think it could we worth the risk. Without any stats to back it up i’d assume he’d be in the top tier of points per minute in the comp, so if he’s travelling about as well as he’s been going in years at this time of the year then I reckon he’s worth at least considering. Maybe he never gets those minutes back or is managed a couple games. if it pays off it could separate you from the pack cos he’s definitely underpriced.
      2 – there’s got to be some risk for a slow start with gawn given his pre-season injury. so worth at least considering someone else. Personal guess but I reckon there’s more risk of Gawn starting slow than there is Nic Nat getting hurt early. So potentially a chance to save some coin on Gawn and pick him up along the way.

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      1. Ironically says “lazy analysis”, then states “(I am) Without any stats to back it up “. Lol

        Sorry Matty, too funny.

        Personally, I’m happy for everyone to go with Gawn. It just means I have a great POD with Marshall.

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        1. POD’s are great if they perform like the premo alternative they are replacing. I cant see an almost 20 ppg gap narrowing too much over the course of the season, even if Gawn starts slowly.

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      2. If it helps any for the Gawn / no Gawn discussion then think of things this way:
        – when building your team for now you are better off having the scenario with him in it and then fit in your others around him.
        Have a few teams planned then without him and see who you can ‘upgrade’ with the spare cash
        – for me, if you aren’t starting Gawn, then you had want to hope that the ruckman you choose and the points differential between anyone else you choose can make up the difference in points loss that Gawn will / should make (if chasing OA)
        – whether Gawn starts a bit slow or not, if he starts it’s irrelevant what you pay for him, as you are banking on him playing all year and not wasting trades and him scoring 120+ for the rest of the year – any price drop doesn’t count.
        – if you start another ruck And want to minimise trades down the track if you have to get Gawn back in, then your ruck choice should be someone who will score 105-110 minimum and not lose too much value and preferably play a different bye round to help there as well.

        There’s no doubt a few more to it, but in chasing OA it’s all about total points, minimising trades to get those upgrades and good bye structure for same.
        I’d look at Marshall (pending impact of ) and good old Goldy. O’Brien may just continue on as well – I don’t think Sauce is in the mix or Nic Nat for that matter

        But hey that’s just me – everyone has to go with their gut and diversity is great – it’s what makes it fun!!
        Cheers

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        1. This is spot on Macca. It’s difficult to find an alternative to Gawn\Grundy combo that nets you the same probable point score. Especially given that G&G will be your C or VC option most of the season. Good luck whoever you chose…M.

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          1. The saving of trades, and the c loop for most of the year are the things that convince me re GG. The two trades likely needed to get Gawn later in the year are worth about $280k, and I dont think anyone thinks he will fall that much !!! If there is a disaster in the first two rounds, he can be downgraded to anyone, but upgrading to Gawn is impossible unless keeping a substantial bank.

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  6. Okay so if Gawn doesn’t start I go with Fyfe and
    TU Nice Nat
    TD Jacobs
    If Gawn starts I’m likely to go Mcgrath for Fyfe.
    Structure changes from 4/5/1/2 to 4/4/2/2. 12 premo start is about where I want to start.

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