Here is the first batch of midfielders I want to re-remind people, this is just my personal guessing, and not anything derived from math. Other than the stuff from the Predicting Uber-Premium Midfielders post, link below, that I will be referring back to sometimes.
For those new to my ramblings, TLA stands for True Level of Ability, and I wrote about it more here:
Jack backed up his 2018 jump with another high average. At age 25 there is no reason to think he can’t do it again. Having already averaged 127 once, it would not be that surprising for him to go at 130 or a bit more. I’d be surprised if he went much lower than last season. I suspect he is slightly underpriced. I can see there are quibbles that could be raised about him, so I can’t say he is an absolute must have, but he’s darn close, and I’d take him for sure.
If he is going to break out and put up a 125+ season it will be this year. I don’t think he will, but he matches all of the indicators I looked at other than his last 10 scores being over his season average. That says to me that other teams were starting to figure him out, and at his age a breakout is way unlikely anyways, so missing that one to me just says no. At 25 he could have had a career year or a breakout year. My feeling is that he will regress, but not a lot. So a mini-breakout. Factoring in his bye, I feel like he is a better upgrade target than starter. Great history of staying on the pitch.
It is a truth universally acknowledged that a midfielder desiring a longer career must be in search of a more time forward. Fyfe has said he wants a longer career and to play forward more. He is 28, and more forward time might well keep him playing longer. It does imply that his SC scores will start trending down. I feel like his broken leg cost him three years of 120+ output. He might manage that again, but I am expecting him to drop off a little. If he spends a lot more time forward then he could drop off a lot. If the Dockers decide to go with youth, why wouldn’t he move up front, save his body, and try to be around when their window opens up? Starting with him has a lot more risk this season than in the past. He’s probably top priced *if* his midfield time stays the same, and he isn’t known for playing 22.
Last year’s average and games played would seem to rule him out of the jump to uber-premo, but at 24 he could still improve. His injury history is not good. The biggest reason not to start with him is there are so many other mids that look like better options. The main reason to take him is if you think that he is not going to be injured, and that his lack of injuries will push his average up higher.
I talked about him some in the “Predicting Uber-Premium Midfielders” post. I think he is going to get better and the question is how much better. If he had played in the mids all season last year I think he would have put up an uber premium average. Not much of a reach since he did that once he was in the mids. His similarly to Ablett, Macrae, Pendles, and Rockliff before their first big seasons is strong, although not perfect. Also, his having played so few matches total is a plus as far as potential. He has not yet shown us all he can do after just 61 games. He scored a double ton! He’s the only non-ruck I think should be in every team.
Remember the Craggy Island Guarantee, All predictions wrong or triple your money back!
Thanks for reading!
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