Hi Everybody!
Here is the second batch of midfielders. I want to re-remind people, this is just my personal guessing, and not anything derived from math. Other than the stuff from the Predicting Uber-Premium Midfielders post, link below, that I will be referring back to sometimes.
https://supercoachtalk.com/predicting-uber-premium-midfielders/
For those new to my ramblings, TLA stands for True Level of Ability, and I wrote about it more here:
https://supercoachtalk.com/luck-skill-and-circumstance-2020/
Patrick Cripps
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2014 | 3 | 39.3 | 18 | |
| 2015 | 20 | 96.3 | 19 | |
| 2016 | 21 | 107.6 | 20 | |
| 2017 | 15 | 97.7 | 21 | |
| 2018 | 22 | 119.4 | 22 | 118 |
| 2019 | 20 | 117.1 | 23 | 118 |
| 115-121 | 118 |
Likely priced at or a little below where he will average this season. He looked a great chance to go boom and turn uber premium last year, but didn’t. Way too many poor matches. If you think he’s been figured out and will do worse than last season, well, could be. I think he is too good to be handled by taggers that easily, and will work his way out of that. Assuming that was really the problem. He could in theory break out this season, but he was a game short and had a lower last ten than his season average.
Patrick Dangerfield
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2008 | 2 | 19.5 | ||
| 2009 | 19 | 62.6 | 18 | |
| 2010 | 19 | 69.9 | 19 | |
| 2011 | 22 | 80.3 | 20 | |
| 2012 | 22 | 118.9 | 21 | |
| 2013 | 20 | 112.9 | 22 | |
| 2014 | 22 | 105.6 | 23 | |
| 2015 | 21 | 119.9 | 24 | 123 |
| 2016 | 22 | 131.8 | 25 | 130 |
| 2017 | 21 | 136.4 | 26 | 130 |
| 2018 | 21 | 121.7 | 27 | 126 |
| 2019 | 21 | 115.2 | 28 | 122 |
| 112-120 | 118 |
When a player is as good as Dangerfield, he does not normally just drop off fast without an injury. While he had one, I doubt it was enough to kill his scoring, like what happened to Gary. He is 29 and did play more forward last season. The 21 point decline from 2017 is nothing to ignore. Mixed messages! I expect that he is going to hover around what he did last season. I don’t expect him to do much worse, and I don’t expect him to do a lot better. But, I think he does have more upside than downside. If he bounces back with a 122 I won’t be shocked, because he is only 29 and it is a return to his 27 year old level, which, and this is important, is 15 off the year before. What he won’t do is go back up to 130. If you like to live Dangerously, then you can take a flyer on his bouncing back, without a lot of risk of a big drop. Not none, just not a lot. My feeling is that he’s a good upgrade target. There are too many other mids who look better. There is nothing wrong with Danger, there are just 5+ better options – which is kinda amazing!
Marcus Bontempelli
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2014 | 16 | 78.6 | 18 | |
| 2015 | 20 | 103.2 | 19 | 104 |
| 2016 | 22 | 107.7 | 20 | 106 |
| 2017 | 22 | 105.1 | 21 | 108 |
| 2018 | 19 | 104 | 22 | 110 |
| 2019 | 22 | 114.7 | 23 | 113 |
| 111-121 | 115 |
He averaged 0.5 less than Dangerfild did last season, but he is only 24. His average jumped last season. It could again this season. As always, he looks Marvelous, especially playing at Marvel, which he does a bumch early as I recall. Picking Bont v Danger it is hard to see why anyone would take Danger over him. Same average, Bont is 5 years younger and on the rise, and is moving out of the midfield in a big way. Danger is older, falling, and may or may not be moving back into the mids, or if he is, maybe not as much. That’s hard to know at this point. Also, Bont has the R14 Bye, and it is hard to overload that one. I’m sure there are a lot of people who have taken Danger over The Bont, but aside from Cat lovers / Dog haters, is there really a good reason for doing that?
Adam Treloar
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2012 | 18 | 83.2 | 18 | |
| 2013 | 20 | 87 | 19 | |
| 2014 | 20 | 107.5 | 20 | 107 |
| 2015 | 21 | 106.8 | 21 | 108 |
| 2016 | 22 | 111.3 | 22 | 109 |
| 2017 | 21 | 101.4 | 23 | 109 |
| 2018 | 13 | 109.5 | 24 | 109 |
| 2019 | 22 | 113.4 | 25 | 109 |
| 108-114 | 109 |
Adam has been very consistent really, hovering around a 108ish average. At 26, there is very little reason to expect a big jump and no reason to expect a big drop. Based on his past, his 113 average last season was a bit lucky, but only by 3-4 points. So, if his 113 was lucky, and he isn’t getting much better, a repeat would also need some luck, and improving would need more. Now, if we throw out the 101.4 for some reason, then he looks more like a 112 TLA, and has more upside. I don’t really like doing that. He feels priced close to the top of his range. More importantly, he is, at best, the 9th best premium midfield option, and even the most loaded team will only have 8 premiums. He is currently owned by 8% of players, which I suspect is the % of Pie supporters playing Supercoach. Again, he is not bad, he is just behind this season’s amazing group of premiums.
Clayton Oliver
| Year | Games | Average | Age | TLA |
| 2016 | 13 | 70.3 | 18 | |
| 2017 | 22 | 111.5 | 19 | 111 |
| 2018 | 22 | 114.7 | 20 | 112 |
| 2019 | 22 | 109.4 | 21 | 113 |
| 110-120+ | 114 |
Did well last year after he recovered from being undercooked due to shoulder(s) surgery. He is just 22 and still has a near unlimited upside. He is clearly underpriced. He has played 66 out of a possible 66 games in the last three seasons. The Demons are very likely to be better this year. Odds are very high he ends up in the top 8. I think he won’t go boom and turn into an uber premium before he is 23, but I am not certain he’ll wait either. Might be the first 22 year old who goes boom, which is low % but there being any % is really remarkable. Of course I could be mad, and he’ll just bump his 2018 average up 2-5 points to 116-120. Again, if you have Danger in and not Oliver, why? In fact, if you have Lachie Whitfield in and not Oliver, why? Oliver is cheaper, way more durable, and with a better ceiling and a higher floor. Points do not care what line they come from. The fact the Whitfield is over 40% more owned than Oliver is a sign that people vastly over value a player having had the best average in their line the previous season.
I bet some clever people can figure out who my 5 mids are now. They have not changed for a long time, and probably won’t barring injury. (Knock on a LOT of wood, no Jinx times 1000)
Remember the Craggy Island Guarantee, All predictions wrong or triple your money back!
Thanks for reading!
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Sterling, Salah, Mane, KDB and Son lock them in!
I think Son is injured….:-)
Sterling has blanked for weeks. Looks like like you still have Abblett in your team 🙂
I’m thinking your 5 is Bont, Dunks, Macrae, Oliver, and Cripps. I’m starting all but Macrae but with a plan to bring him in after rd 14 for the run home……never thought I’d have three mids from the one team.
Correct! Got it in one. Now, any interesting arguments againts?
Go Marae to Mitchell so you can upgrade your D1 to Lloyd
I actively do not want Lloyd. I do not want Titch until he has played to the byes and shown his new level. Lloyd in a Defenders post, probably group #1, Titch coming soon
I think there were worrying signs for Llyod at the end of last year and with the coming of age of Dawson, I’ll pass as a starter in Lloyd.
Interested to see if there is any data to suggest that three mids within the one team can all finish top 10?
Players and teams that had the talent to do it in the past off the top of my head include;
Brisbane with Voss, Black and Aker
West Coast with Cousins, Judd and Kerr
Geelong with Ablett, Bartel and Selwood
Collingwood with Swan, Pendles and Beams
Any potential trio that I’m missing?
Now there is obviously nothing to say that all three can’t average 115+ but just curious on the past history of it.
FD, how would you rank the three Dogs mids?
So I can only find back to 2007 and sorting by averages here are examples I can find (note that this includes final series)
2007 – Bartel 1st, Ablett 3rd, Chapman 10th
2008 – Ablett 1st, Bartel 3rd, Corey 10th
2009 – Hayes 2nd, Montagna 3rd, Goddard 5th, Riewoldt 7th, Dal Santo 8th
2010 – Ablett 2nd, Selwood 8th, Chapman 10th
2012 – Pendles 2nd, Swan 3rd, Beams 4th
2014 – Pendles 3rd, Beams 6th, Sidebottom 10th
2019 – Macrae 3rd, Dunkley 7th, Bont 10th
Well I’m definitely convinced now!
I think you answered your own question!
Great bit of work. The three amigos averaged 118 last year, and thats with dunk going at about 80 for 5 rounds or so. The thing is that only one is likely to be tagged each round, leaving the others to go large. All of them are in the career/breakout window that FD has identified and could go to the uber 125 pts level.
I think I might go and back doggies for flag now !!
Dunkley – Macrae – Bont
Love ya work FD. Your analysis is GOLD once again.
I’ve currently got the same five except for JKelly instead of Bont. Love the way Bont goes about it but worried about having three Doggies, and I feel Kelly will improve greatly having a full preseason under his belt.
Kelly has risk I know, but I’m willing to take it given the durability of my other premo MIDs. Bont going close to 200 again in the second Marsh game could very well change that though.
Hello Father.
Thank you very much for your wonderful reviews.
I may disagree slightly with you on Adam Treloar.
He was a very high draft pick and always touted as a future star.
He was pretty rough to begin with, but the talent was always there.
I believe his change of club a few years back and his numbers at the end of last year, all “may” point to a potential later than usual “Breakout”.
I got him in for the last 10 games last season ( post Byes ) , he only cost me $502K, and he scored..
117
136
100
125
116
123
177 ( Gold Coast)
127
116
99
For an average of 123.6
I was stoked, and it made a few of my poorer decisions a little easier to swallow !
I feel,this was mainly down to him maturing as a footballer and not rushing to get rid of the ball . His DE improved and so did his scoring.
He is now the undisputed number one Midfielder at the Pies and will continue to attend the most centre bounces.
I think he will continue to rack up big numbers and if his DE remains over 70% … well I just see improvement
“My Guess” is more like 112. / 118.
The only real reason I’m not starting him is, I prefer Cripps and Oliver with that R13 Bye. If, by some reason one of them is not “good to go” or Max or any of my R13 Bye players, then I may find a way to fit him in. My gut tells me that the best midfielder in a potential top 4 side, should finish in the top 8 midfielders. It’s going to be tough with all those Doggies 🙂
One again thanks for the reviews, and keep em coming.
PS Remember last year when I told you Neale could average 120+ 😉
OOOPPS.
Seems like as I scroll down you have responded to this query already.
Doh.
Great write up Father, just that is too many eggs in one Bulldogs baskets. Thats why I am having Neale or Danger instead of the Bont because he will get tagged…twice… by De Boer pre his R14 bye. Good luck anyway.
Your point at the end about players averages on different lines is why I want to see how selecting only 110+ averaging players pans out.
Averages of 110 are nice, but give me a 20 gamer averaging 105 rather than a 16 gamer averaging 110. I think that was the whitfield case last year.
I would make exceptions for the likes of Toby Greene but in finals only.
Have Danger due to Kelly leaving to West Coast, Selwood touch and go for round 1, Jenkins coming into the forward line all of those 3 points should result in more Midfield time.
Don’t have Oliver due to in the first 4 weeks he faces, De Boer, Hutchins & Steele.
I am thanking Danger for his great service in the past, but as his average declined last year, and he is starting to turn into a frog, I think he may not be the sc “must have” as in the past.
Leave clarry out at your own peril. All season long blokes will cop attention & get tagged. The best ones manage to find a way to break them, as clarry will.
Absolute steal to pick him up under 600k , will post monster scores this season, have no doubts at all!
True enough… consider this: if his price does bottom out, which I doubt will be significant (as those low scores may only be in for 1 or 2 price change calculations), it will happen around round 5-7. Unless you’ve built in a stepping stone, most coaches will not be ready to do a major upgrade by that time (barring 1-2 absolute ripper rookies coming through).
Love your thoughts,TLA’s & write ups, Father.
I’m not a Pies supporter but I’m considering Treloar based on his scores post-bye last year: 99, 100, 3 x 110-120, 3 x 120-130, 136 & 177.
How was he lucky please? Similar to Walters with some bonuses?
Cheers.
Mickey, Pendleton’s thinks Treloar is having his best pre-season. He thought that last year he was still mentally scarred from the double hammy injury and that this year he is back to his explosive best. Interesting to see how it pans out. Good luck…..M.
“ Pendles…..”
Thanks Maximus.
I think he’s earned the ‘ton’ in his nickname! Good luck to you too.
I also think Treloar is massively overlooked, not just by FD, but by us all.
I had the suspicion he missed too many games, but that double hammy is pretty much the only injury on the last 4-5 years. Maybe that he has openly (and bravely) admitted to having mental health problems, people see this as a potential problem.
You could put a case forward for him against plenty of older players (Danger, Fyfe) or less durable (Jelly) or of which are much more popular
Perhaps people see him more as an outside type, therefore more suited to DT. But if you look at his contested numbers from last year, he is much more than just a hard running outside player
It’s his DE. Yes he cleared it up a bit last year. But as a whole he should be averaging 117-120 but he just doesn’t.
I mostly covered this in my other comment, but you raised some good points.
I did not take mental health into account at all. I am going just by his historical scores. Same with inside v outside.
I have zero against Treloar, I just have more for five others. If I had to pick a 6th mid, I would consider him, since there are issues with every other 6th best mid candidate too. The main concern for Adam is can he really score much higher than his price?
Thanks lots!
I think he was a bit lucky because his average last season was a bit higher than his baseline has been in the past. He wasn’t huge lucky, just some. As I wrote, I can see an argument for not including his 101 average in his baseline, in which case he was not significantly lucky. If you assume that, then he should hover more around 112 than 109. Say he scores at any one of his seasons 2014-2019 again. other than 2017. You’re still paying top price. He could have his best season ever at 26. Or 27, or 28. He is not too old to throw out a 117-120 or so. I just think the odds of him doing it isn’t as good as some of the other available options.
I will say that his being 9th best could well be argued. For one thing, he could be 10th, but, if you think age will take out Danger and Fyfe, he’s 8th, and if you don’t trust Kelly to play a full season without missing a lot of time, then he is 7th. If you also think Neale is overpriced and want to pick him up later, than Treloar is 6th. I don’t see him better than any of the Dogs, Cripps, and Oliver though.
Thanks FD.
I’m looking at him as M6 & your rationale ruling out others is spot on.
Appreciate the quick response & I’ll take it as confirmation I’m on the right track!
Thanks FD.
I’m looking at him as M6 & your rationale as to how I’ve preferred him to others is spot on.
Appreciate the quick response & I’ll take it as confirmation I’m on the right track!
He’s my first upgrade after r13 bye.
Hey there Micky, I state my case for Treloar above..
Cripps ave with a tag/headtohead in 2019 was 80.28
Cripps ave without a tag/headtohead in 2019 was 136.92
What do you think the opposition coaches will do this year?
Fair point, but he has tended to handle it better in previous years.
To hell with the opposition coaches….Carlton just need to put Rhys on the bench for those “defining moments” that deal with taggers !!
LOL
Cripps and Whitfield are the two easiest players in the comp to shutdown. Start them both at your peril.
Heavy tag on Cripps…..one out in the goal square. Who would want to stand him ??
Whitfield….take the kick ins, then the next possession.
“The fact the Whitfield is over 40% more owned than Oliver is a sign that people vastly over value a player having had the best average in their line the previous season. ”
Truth.
Whitfield is owned by half the comp because he’s a forward who is miles ahead of the other options in his line.