Midfield Evaluations – Group #4

Hi Everybody!

Here is the fourth batch of midfielders  I want to re-remind people, this is just my personal guessing, and not anything derived from math. Other than the stuff from the Predicting Uber-Premium Midfielders post, link below, that I will be referring back to sometimes. For those new to my ramblings, TLA stands for True Level of Ability, and I wrote about it more here:

https://supercoachtalk.com/luck-skill-and-circumstance-2020/

For those new to my ramblings, TLA stands for True Level of Ability, and I wrote about it more here:

https://supercoachtalk.com/luck-skill-and-circumstance-2020/

 

Luke Parker

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2011	11	52.1	18
2012	16	70.9	19
2013	22	86.9	20
2014	22	108.5	21	105
2015	19	99.7	22	105
2016	22	111.9	23	105
2017	22	99.3	24	105
2018	21	103.5	25	105
2019	22	105.1	26	105
		99-107		105

Huh, forgot him, sorry!  To sum up, he looks like a 105ish average player, and has for a while. Any year his price is far enough below 105, might be worth a punt on his bouncing back. This year, priced dead on, and 105 is not good enough to start. Darn.

Scott Pendlebury

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2006	9	56.8	18
2007	20	88.7	19
2008	21	103.5	20
2009	20	106.5	21
2010	22	110.5	22
2011	22	129.2	23	125
2012	18	124.7	24	125
2013	22	126.6	25	125
2014	21	124.4	26	125
2015	22	116.2	27	120
2016	22	118.7	28	115
2017	16	106.7	29	110
2018	21	103.5	30	107
2019	22	104.3	31	104
		98-105		101

Scott may have had a career as close to the theoretical up and down curve as will happen in real life. Dependlebury even as far as his TLA goes! At 32, he’s clearly on the down though. Like Ablett, he has remained real world valuable even though he is not currently Supercoach valuable. As soon as he gets defender status that could change, but as a mid he has little to offer, at least as someone to start with. 

 

Matt Crouch

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2014	8	59.2	18
2015	15	68.3	19
2016	20	92.8	20
2017	22	110.6	21	105
2018	18	101.6	22	105
2019	19	103.7	23	105
		100-110		105

Wow, he has just flamed right out since 2017. I understand why people started with him last season, I did after all. But last year’s 103 average in 19 games has him on the dodgy list. Since he is just 24, it is way too early to write him off forever, but based on his career so far, I’d stay away. If you start with him and he averages 110 in 22 games, yay, but a small yay, not a YAY! I suspect he will do a bit better than last season, barring more injury. Still not worth a starting spot.  

 

Stephen Coniglio

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2012	12	75.8	18
2013	18	74.1	19
2014	14	83.5	20
2015	18	91.7	21
2016	21	105.9	22	105
2017	7	91.4	23	105
2018	21	108.4	24	105
2019	15	101.2	25	105
		100-108		105

My God! His career totally mirrors Matt Crouch! Or, no I pasted Crouch in twice in a row. Nevermind. Let’s try again. Ok, he does have the same TLA estimate as Matt, but that’s an actual coincidence. But in a way he is like Matt, in that he is probably a bit underpriced but not worth taking anyways. Also, he is rather injury prone, so less worth taking the Matt. Is there something in the water at GWS that keeps all of their best players injury risks? 

 

Rory Sloane

Year	Games	Average	Age	TLA
2009	1	42	18
2010	14	75.2	19
2011	18	88.3	20
2012	21	106.1	21	110
2013	21	107	22	110
2014	22	114.8	23	110
2015	16	105.5	24	110
2016	21	108.6	25	110
2017	22	110.2	26	110
2018	12	96.6	27	100
2019	22	103	28	100
		97-105		100

Rapidly aging out of Supercoach relevance. From the above it looks like he never got all the way right after his 2018 injury. He is barely not too old to rule out a shock career year, but that’s not something to bet on. A 22 games of 100 would be right on target, since when not actually out injured he is durable…..which does make sense, you know what I mean by that…

 

Remember the Craggy Island Guarantee, All predictions wrong or triple your money back!

Thanks for reading!

 

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