Premiums
Dayne Beams ($601,100, 109.90, 96) – Swannie’s mini-me has stepped out of the fat man’s massive shadow scoring 175, 121 and 137 over the last 3 weeks. You coulda picked him up for $492k in R5.
Nick Riewoldt ($529,200, 107.45, 61) – Gotta admit, I doubted his knees would hold up to the rigours of another season early this year but I’m converted. He’s grouse! He has the 5th highest average of all forwards and the lowest standard deviation of the top 5 by a mile which means he’s Mr Consistent. Last 4 rounds: 123, 115, 92, and a massive 159 against the Suns last week. Ironically, that massive score will pump up his std dev figure.
Paul Chapman ($566,700, 106.82, 86) – And the 6th highest average belongs to Chappy (I think he should be re-nicknamed Changry). Not convinced he’s worth picking up? Here’s how he’s travelled since the beginning of 2012: 90, 121, 57, 103, 96, 122, 107, 104, 128, 148, 99. He’s admitted that his team mates carried him last year. Clearly, he’s now returning the favour.
Midpricers
Matthew Pavlich ($482,600, 95.82, 93) – In tough conditions with a greasy ball (that’s the footy, not a medical condition) Pav showed on Saturday he’s still a class above with a 6 goal return and 99 points. Started the season at $573k and is pretty much as cheap as he’s been all year at this price. The good news: he’s not going to increase in price this week so you can wait til R13 to pick him up. Upcoming run: Essendon, Collingwood, Dogs, Melbourne, GWS, Port. Motts likes the way that looks.
Danny Stanley ($430,800, 91.50, 85) – Is getting panned for taking a spot from a youngster but from a SC perspective what’s not to like about him? In the 4 games he’s played this year he’s scored 92, 104, 73, and 97. Imagine what he’d be scoring if the Suns were able to get the ball into their Forward line a little more often!
Jarryd Blair ($435,700, 89.10, 31) – Great to see Jarryd grabbing his opportunity with both hands after the AFL widened their equal opportunity policy to allow Oompa Loompas into the league. Last 5 rounds: 86, 76, 96, 79, 148.
Travis Cloke ($396,600, 88.18, 0) has scored 2 tons in 2 weeks. Is this a negotiation tactic or is he back?
Value Picks
Arryn Siposs ($219,800, 44.2, -18) – In a comment on Andy B’s excellent article on the Saints earlier this year, gimmeguitars said: “Siposs has bulked up quite alot and has silky smooth skills. He’s also always barracked for the Saints, so will play with all his guts for ‘his’ team”. Did you end up drafting him, gg? Coz it looks like he’s starting to deliver on his potential. His first 2 rounds were pretty crappy (33 and 56) but last week against the Suns he busted out a 91. The good news? As a result of those first 2 rounds, he’s actually gone DOWN $22k in price this year.
Jamie Elliott ($154,500, 58.33, -77) – He only had a 61 last week and a 6 in R9 but sandwiched between those 2 scores was a ton and I’m struggling for names in the VP section this week.
Aaron Hall ($239,300, 57.50, 9) – He’s not cheap but I reckon he’ll play out the season and if he keeps scoring in the 60’s like he has the last couple of rounds he’ll make you another $100k and/or pinch hit up front if you sufer any injuries to your premiums…. Actually you know what? Pay $10k more and get Zorko.
{ 37 comments… read them below or add one }
I did pick up Dayne Beams in rnd5 for 492k. Oh jeez am I happy about that! Had him in my starting side, but chose to wait for him to come down as I knew he’d take a few to wind up after a limited pre season. Cheers.
People canned me saying you don’t want too many from the one side, but tell me that at the end of the year you all wouldn’t want Pendles, Swan, Beams, Sidey and Cloke as f7.
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And Shaw in your backline. I might be stuck with Clarke at D7 as well due to so many injuries but it could be worse.
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Shaw is gone now. I still recall a comment saying four would be the definite maximum. I’ve got the whole midfield!
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He’s possibly on the horizon before round 14 Mottsy. Came very close before r1, but went Cripps instead as I had a feeling he’d get more gametime initially. Cripps hasn’t really delivered SC wise IMHO. I’ve also had Milera and Saad (especially) distracting me at the selection table.
Who do we think will be the GWS keepers? Changed my mind on Shiel. Think I will be keeping Bugg, Shiel & Treloar at this stage.
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Giles and possibly Treloar for mine. Bugg’s dropped off recently and I flipped Shiel early.
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Coniglio, Treloar and Shiel are the standouts along with GIles. I think Bugg, D.Smith and Mohr will keep getting games but their scoring potential is obviously lower.
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Changry Haha, enjoyed that one a little too much
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The fat man’s massive shadow
nomnomnomnom…snortsnortsnortsnort…nomnomnomnom…snortsnortsnortsnort
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Slow day in the fishbowl?
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That was my impression of Swanny celebrating a win. And yes.
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Dane Swan is so fat, that wasn’t the planet Venus casting a shadow in front of the Sun, it was Dane skydiving.
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Dane Swan = Stuart Dew
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Oompa Loompa
On fire Motts – nice work!
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Cloke is too good not to pick up at that price. Couldn’t do worse than a GWS rookie. And at worst could become a handy F8 for finals. C’mon Crapps, one more price rise for ol’time’s sake!
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Chappy IS old, hasn’t been rested yet and Geelong have the hardest run home bar none. I just don’t trust him. Meanwhile Richmond and Freo have relatively easy fixtures going forward. I’m thinking the Pav.
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Not arguing with the first two statements as both are obviously correct. He is also injury prone. My beef though is an argument about TEAM strength-of-schedule. I have never found this relevant in picking players. It is a pain if you are a Geelong fan, but in a sport like AFL, individuals can still score very well against good teams, even if the side loses. It is all about how YOUR GUY plays against those teams. Chapman versus his remaining opponents:
Sydney (plays twice) – average 113 over last four games
Port Adelaide – 121 career average
Gold Coast – 104 average from his two games last year
Collingwood – 111 earlier in the year and a 111 career average against them
Essendon – 121 career average
Adelaide – 106 this season and 107 average over the last five
Hawthorn – 121 this season and 105 career average
West Coast – Averaged 111 over the last six
St Kilda – Averaged 111 over the last six
Western Bulldogs – 128 this season, but has actually struggled against them in the last five, averaging only 83.
Don’t pick him if you don’t trust his body, age or coaching staff, but don’t avoid him simply because Geelong have some tough games.
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God I love it when you get analytical, DC.
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Amen to that Motts
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I agree with your points, DC, but let me play devil’s advocate for a second. I haven’t done the comprehensive statistical analysis that you’ve done (where do you get your stats from BTW?) but I’m pretty sure that you’ve got a better chance of scoring higher against a team that is in the bottom half of the ladder (and particularly in the bottom 4) than you do against a Top 8 team.
Here’s a couple of examples that back that argument up: last week, N-Roo scored 159 against GC and Swan scored 160 against Melbourne. 2 weeks ago Buddy smacked North for 236.
To this end, does anyone want to write an article on the teams with the easiest and toughest last 4 games for the year which as we all know is SC Finals?
I’ll kick if off with a suggestion for a team with the easiest run home: Adelaide – Freo (home), Brisbane (away), Melbourne (away), GC (home).
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Thanks, Motts. I do enjoy a good analysis of stats! I get my info from a number of sources that depend on what I am analysing, but generally the actual SuperCoach site, Fan Footy, Too Serious and DreamTeamTalk (I know that it isn’t SC based, but it does get you thinking about things…)
I think that it depends a lot on what sort of style your opposition plays. For example, West Coast and Essendon play a game style that is based so much on lock-down defensive football that it is harder to score against than the ‘pressure’ that Gold Coast apply. Collingwood, on the other hand, just don’t like to tag. Save for the (in)famous Marty Clarke tag that took out Stanton on ANZAC Day, no great tagging jobs from their side in season 2012 come to mind. Simply, they back their guys in. For instance, they let Ablett rack up 53 touches because they backed Daisy to be more effective going the other way.
I did a quick check of the six games last round and found the following:
Melb v Coll
2 (Jones – M Clark)
7 (Swan – Sidebottom – Blair – Beams – Jolly – Wellingham – Cloke)
Port v Haw
2 (K Cornes – Bra Ebert)
8 (Sewell – Rioli – Breust – Hale – Mitchell – Franklin – Gibson – Birchall)
Ess v Syd
3 (Watson – Ler Jetta – Fletcher)
6 (R Shaw – R O’Keefe – J Bolton – Jack – Lew Jetta – J McVeigh)
GCS v St K
2 (Iles – Jar Brennan)
7 (N Riewoldt – Blake – Gram – Dempster – Armitage – Dal Santo – Goddard)
Rich v Frem
3 (Tuck – I Maric – Cotchin)
6 (De Boor – M Johnson – Griffin – Hill – Broughton – Barlow)
Carl v Geel
2 (Simpson – Judd)
6 (J Selwood – Scarlett – Duncan – Taylor – Stokes – Bartel)
Last week, the team that won averaged 6.7 100s, while the team that lost averaged just 2.3 100s. So there seems to be more than a slight correlation between beating your opposition and scoring well. If I get the time I will look into it some more tonight…
Also, on an entirely unrelated topic, I didn’t realise until just then that all of the away teams won last round…
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Is your day job in analysis, DC? Coz hot damn you’re good at it!
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Alas, Motts, it is not. I do love stats though, always have. If anyone from Champion Data is around here, I’m quite open to the idea of a job offer! Just a humble law student though…
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Yeah coz a career at CD will pay so much more than whatever pittance you’ll earn as a lawyer *rolling eyes*
How on earth do you find time for SC if you’re studying law??
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I’m not sure that I really need to be telling you of all people this but: there is always time for SuperCoach!
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A very crude analysis, in which x points are added where x = ladder position for each team that is played from now until the end of the season, yields the following (with hardest draw at the top):
Geelong 77
Collingwood 81
Carlton 94
Essendon 97
West Coast 98
Gold Coast 102
St Kilda 102
Hawthorn 103
Sydney 105
Port Adelaide 108
Western Bulldogs 110
Fremantle 113
North Melbourne 117
GWS 118
Brisbane 121
Adelaide 133
Richmond 133
Melbourne 135
For round 20 to 23:
Collingwood 21
West Coast 27
Geelong 28
Sydney 29
North Melbourne 32
Essendon 33
Port Adelaide 34
Hawthorn 36
Gold Coast 37
Melbourne 40
Brisbane 42
Richmond 42
Carlton 44
Fremantle 44
St Kilda 49
GWS 54
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Add to the R20-23 part:
Western Bulldogs 34 and
Adelaide 58
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Don’t know how I missed those.
Cheers
Full list for round 20 to 23:
Collingwood 21
West Coast 27
Geelong 28
Sydney 29
North Melbourne 32
Essendon 33
Port Adelaide 34
Western Bulldogs 34
Hawthorn 36
Gold Coast 37
Melbourne 40
Brisbane 42
Richmond 42
Carlton 44
Fremantle 44
St Kilda 49
GWS 54
Adelaide 58
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Brilliant fellas. According to this I do not have enough Crows! I was set on getting Swan in rd13 but maybe I should be aiming for Dangerfield / Thompson?
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I hope you are right with Hall and he does play out the season. It was strange how he went missing. I am glad I held him.
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Does anybody know if and when Christensen from Geelong is due back – deciding whether to get rid of him or hold him if he’s close to a return.
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Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
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thinking the same thing but i dontt know who to get have limit of aorund 520,000 and already have chappy, nroo, dmartin
hellp
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Maybe one of the adelaide duo (Tex and Tippet). Easy run home means some potentially huge scores
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who would you choose tippett or walker?
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Though he’s burned many in the past I would probably choose Tippet, because I feel he has a higher scoring potential. Thats just me though.
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You could be right there Nick
Although I declared Tippett “dead to me” after having him the last couple of years and having to ride the roller coaster with him.
Funny how hard it is for a SC coach’s mind to get past the past.
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I just can’t bring myself to look at either Tippett or Tex. Their averages so far are inflated by the easy draw they’ve had. I know they come home with the same run but if the Crows form takes a dip with a bit more pressure coming into finals the two big forwards will be the first to drop points.
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