Motts Movers R11, 2012 – The Forwards

Written by Motts on June 13 2012

Premiums

Dayne Beams ($601,100, 109.90, 96) – Swannie’s mini-me has stepped out of the fat man’s massive shadow scoring 175, 121 and 137 over the last 3 weeks. You coulda picked him up for $492k in R5.

Nick Riewoldt ($529,200, 107.45, 61) – Gotta admit, I doubted his knees would hold up to the rigours of another season early this year but I’m converted. He’s grouse! He has the 5th highest average of all forwards and the lowest standard deviation of the top 5 by a mile which means he’s Mr Consistent. Last 4 rounds: 123, 115, 92, and a massive 159 against the Suns last week. Ironically, that massive score will pump up his std dev figure.

Paul Chapman ($566,700, 106.82, 86) – And the 6th highest average belongs to Chappy (I think he should be re-nicknamed Changry). Not convinced he’s worth picking up? Here’s how he’s travelled since the beginning of 2012: 90, 121, 57, 103, 96, 122, 107, 104, 128, 148, 99. He’s admitted that his team mates carried him last year. Clearly, he’s now returning the favour.

Midpricers

Matthew Pavlich ($482,600, 95.82, 93) – In tough conditions with a greasy ball (that’s the footy, not a medical condition) Pav showed on Saturday he’s still a class above with a 6 goal return and 99 points. Started the season at $573k and is pretty much as cheap as he’s been all year at this price. The good news: he’s not going to increase in price this week so you can wait til R13 to pick him up. Upcoming run: Essendon, Collingwood, Dogs, Melbourne, GWS, Port. Motts likes the way that looks.

Danny Stanley ($430,800, 91.50, 85) – Is getting panned for taking a spot from a youngster but from a SC perspective what’s not to like about him? In the 4 games he’s played this year he’s scored 92, 104, 73, and 97. Imagine what he’d be scoring if the Suns were able to get the ball into their Forward line a little more often!

Jarryd Blair ($435,700, 89.10, 31) – Great to see Jarryd grabbing his opportunity with both hands after the AFL widened their equal opportunity policy to allow Oompa Loompas into the league. Last 5 rounds: 86, 76, 96, 79, 148.

Travis Cloke ($396,600, 88.18, 0) has scored 2 tons in 2 weeks. Is this a negotiation tactic or is he back?

Value Picks

Arryn Siposs ($219,800, 44.2, -18) – In a comment on Andy B’s excellent article on the Saints earlier this year, gimmeguitars said: “Siposs has bulked up quite alot and has silky smooth skills. He’s also always barracked for the Saints, so will play with all his guts for ‘his’ team”. Did you end up drafting him, gg? Coz it looks like he’s starting to deliver on his potential. His first 2 rounds were pretty crappy (33 and 56) but last week against the Suns he busted out a 91. The good news? As a result of those first 2 rounds, he’s actually gone DOWN $22k in price this year.

Jamie Elliott ($154,500, 58.33, -77) – He only had a 61 last week and a 6 in R9 but sandwiched between those 2 scores was a ton and I’m struggling for names in the VP section this week.

Aaron Hall ($239,300, 57.50, 9) – He’s not cheap but I reckon he’ll play out the season and if he keeps scoring in the 60’s like he has the last couple of rounds he’ll make you another $100k and/or pinch hit up front if you sufer any injuries to your premiums…. Actually you know what? Pay $10k more and get Zorko.

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37 thoughts on “Motts Movers R11, 2012 – The Forwards”

  1. I did pick up Dayne Beams in rnd5 for 492k. Oh jeez am I happy about that! Had him in my starting side, but chose to wait for him to come down as I knew he’d take a few to wind up after a limited pre season. Cheers.

    People canned me saying you don’t want too many from the one side, but tell me that at the end of the year you all wouldn’t want Pendles, Swan, Beams, Sidey and Cloke as f7.

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  2. He’s possibly on the horizon before round 14 Mottsy. Came very close before r1, but went Cripps instead as I had a feeling he’d get more gametime initially. Cripps hasn’t really delivered SC wise IMHO. I’ve also had Milera and Saad (especially) distracting me at the selection table.

    Who do we think will be the GWS keepers? Changed my mind on Shiel. Think I will be keeping Bugg, Shiel & Treloar at this stage.

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  3. The fat man’s massive shadow 😆 😆 😆 nomnomnomnom…snortsnortsnortsnort…nomnomnomnom…snortsnortsnortsnort

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  4. Cloke is too good not to pick up at that price. Couldn’t do worse than a GWS rookie. And at worst could become a handy F8 for finals. C’mon Crapps, one more price rise for ol’time’s sake!

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  5. Chappy IS old, hasn’t been rested yet and Geelong have the hardest run home bar none. I just don’t trust him. Meanwhile Richmond and Freo have relatively easy fixtures going forward. I’m thinking the Pav.

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  6. I hope you are right with Hall and he does play out the season. It was strange how he went missing. I am glad I held him.

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  7. Does anybody know if and when Christensen from Geelong is due back – deciding whether to get rid of him or hold him if he’s close to a return.

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  8. Really struggling with the Zaha situation; not a lot of options from those sides that played Rd 11
    BUT I have a must win situation over the next two weeks in my main money league, given I tanked Rd11

    Am considering opting for an out of favour, high risk, old timer … but with potential upside and an easier run home

    Thumbs Up – Zaha to Boomer Harvey

    Thumbs Down – Look elsewhere

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