Motts Movers R3 – The Backs

Written by Motts on April 11 2011

For those of you unfamiliar with these posts, throughout the season I will throw the spotlight on those blokes that have been performing beautifully over the last few rounds and put a rocket up those that need one. I tend to steer clear of the rookies – that’s the domain of Big Sexual – instead focussing on players who provide great value for money. Let’s get on with the show. This week’s heroes are:

Jed Adcock ($373,400, 108) – Opened up the year with a rather pedestrian 71 against the Dockers at the Gabba before hitting his stride against the Dogs at Etihad with 111. Then last week at the MCG against the Dees he broke out for a 143 and consequently went up $40k. Has a bye this week so won’t go up in value again (his BE is -3) and with his second bye occurring in another non-competitive round, all those coaches out there trying to win their leagues should definitely have a look at him.

Josh Gibson ($399,300, 104.33) – I swore I’d never trade J-Gib in again after breaking the cardinal rule a couple of years ago and trading him in on a Tuesday only to find out on Wednesday that he’d fallen over in his bathroom, bumped his head and would be out for the season. But his average this year with the Horks is making me take a second look. I thought he was just a straight defender but his three scores of 94 (v Adelaide), 86 (v Melbourne) and 133 (v The Tiges) reflect that he’s being used more as a linkman when they run it forward. R4 BE: 49.

Matt Suckling ($283,500, 100.33) – A bit of depol action wouldn’t go astray with Mr Suckling but while he’s running like the wind out of the Hawk backlines and averaging over 100 he can call himself whatever the hell he likes. He went up $60k this week after scoring 66, 139 and 96 but if you run as fast as you can and jump off the end of the pier you won’t quite miss the boat. His R4 BE is -45.

Honourable mentions go to Nick Suban ($333,900, 98) and Robert Murphy ($377,000, 103.3)

And the villains:

Nathan Lovett-Murray ($355,500, 42.33) – No other player has lost more money in the first 3 rounds than NLM. You can get him for $60k cheaper than the 5,163 friends and family members of his that slotted him in from the get-go.

Cameron Bruce ($440,600, 63) – Was always going to take time to get his act together in the Hawks backline. He’s a smart, proud bloke though so I have no doubt it will happen. The trick will be working out when he’s at his lowest price and bringing him in that week.

Daniel Connors ($364,800, 49.67) – Only 6,236 coaches picked DC and I know one of them. This guy prides himself on being able to spot unrecognised talent which then gives him a Point of Difference and on occasion can make him a lot of coin. I do believe he has plans to trade Mr Connors out of his team this week. Experiment: failed.

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90 thoughts on “Motts Movers R3 – The Backs”

  1. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – TRUST YOUR GUT AT THE START OF THE SEASON!

    Had both Adcock and Gibson in my last/final/this is it/no more trades/i’m done/it’s been a long road but i’m there now/absolute last and final team before Round 1 only to make a couple of trades to fit Goddard in.

    Gibson was one casualty of that. Juddy and Bartel were two others!!!!

    And Adcock was tossed aside for the ‘bonus’ forward Mick Hurley. They were both the same price but ended up taking the safe option with the bloke who hasn’t been injured and is the coach’s pet.

    Hindsight is a beautiful thing!

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  2. Will definitely be considering Commercialcock next week. Shame I haven’t actually watched a Lions game yet.

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  3. Adcock certainly did well on the weekend. I overlooked him aswell, depsite havign him in my team the last few years. Sigh.

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  4. This week my backline is Gibbs,Deliedo,Grimes,Heppell,Duigan,Lower and Stanley I also have Wood I have $444400 in the bank should I trade Wood for Enright,Gibson,Newman or Adcock or save my money and trade until round 8 for Swan

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  5. picked up adcock from the start, thanks to allfooty.info’s recommendation I think. Since Brown got injured he seems to have upped his game and if things turn sour, his value will have risen enough to trade him in for a gun.
    Also picked Hurn from the start but he’s been a mixbag so far.

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  6. motts, what’s your opinion on grundy? averaging around 78, and went down 22k this week…

    anyone think its worth trading him out for adcock?

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  7. OK, it seems like Zac Smith is going to be a star, what does everyone think of this idea? Trade out Sandilands before his price drops too much and use both Zac and Petrie to cover the byes, as they have both had 1 each now,on the ground instead with Cox. Petrie is currently in the Fwds with J.Tippet as the other spot on the ruck bench. Then use the cash to upgrade Irons to Hodge in the Mids? Petrie was selected to make money with the intention of trading him out before the finals and I may even be able to use him to bring Sandi back in. Too many trades used is the biggest issue I have with this, thoughts?

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  8. Sorry, forgot to add that I was thinking of grabbing someone like Bellchambers or Broc Macauley for Sandi, as I would still have Cox, Smith and Petrie to play on the feild.

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  9. I dont think Sandi will drop that much for too long, he will continue to score big. Last week he scored over 100 and missed the better part of the second half! Although I like your thinking, i just think you need to be patient and wait for the rookies and cash cows to climb further in price.

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  10. Why get rid of big Sandi is biggest question? The big fella has done very little wrong and will rack big scores up week after week… you originally bought him to score points for you, so what if the big guy drops a a little in price he’ll rebound again.
    I reckon you’ll be able to afford Hodge sooner rather than later… his price will drop as I think although he played well on weekend he is still struggling with the achilles, the second half of the year will be his time!
    In my opinion it is a bit of a sideways trade if you lose Sandi for Hodge and at this time of the year sideways trades are best avoided.

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  11. Thats what I like about this site, people that offer great advice and make a bloke stop and think, thanks, I just get greedy sometimes and want it all but averaging 2180 so far so your right, I should be patient.Sandi has done nothing wrong and wont lose much cash, I just felt like I had too many rucks!

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  12. Hodge completely over his achilles yet?
    Didn’t watch the game saturday night as I was busy enjoying the Swans beat the Eagles.
    He did pull out a big score. did he look proppy at all?

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  13. Massive in club bigging up of the Pig pre-season and after seeing him work around the ground against the Dees I jumped straight on.

    No Muston repeat here. This kid can play a big role for the Hawks this year. Young down one wing and him down the other. Plus no one will go near him defensively for a long time.

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  14. Looked 20times as sharp as the week before. Not to say the achilles is 100% but even at 90% The General burns.

    If you’ve got him stick with him. If looking to trade him wait a week to make sure he’s totally ready to go. His price shouldn’t rise too much .

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  15. Can anyone tell me where i can find a list of all the subbed on and off players this year. Thanks

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  16. Hodgeys avg at tazzie is 120…ive got a feeling he may get pretty close to his break even this week.

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  17. Where the hell is Micheal Hibberd?????

    He’s not in the VFL & he sure as hell aint playing seniors???

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  18. Found an article from essendons website about his “good” form in the VFL but every vfl report for bendigo ive read hasnt mentioned him…Not a good sign.

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  19. He’s been injured since the start of the season with a quad, yet hasn’t shown up on their injury report.

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  20. Good morning all!

    Can anyone tell me where i can find the sub info on the games played this year??

    Also the Predictor has got me at 2078.

    How does the everyone think the bye will effect the top 1% of the comp.

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  21. Well if you’ve got Supercoach gold that should tell you who’s started as the Sub and who’d they replaced during the game in round review.

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  22. just realised that I’m in trouble this round, i know i know we don’t verse anyone in leagues but i still want to get a solid score, when i saw that st kilda, dogs and brissy had the bye, I said, well thats good because i know I have a lot of saints, but i only have liberatroe for the dogs and no brisbane player. DARN IT, forgot that i had adcock, so I just went to put him on the bench, went to put Ryan Lester on, DARN IT, Lester playes for Brisbane!, And already I have Goddard sitting on the bench for Duigan coming in. OK then, 1 more player on the bench, who is that? It’s Buckley, awesome…..but……he has a groin injury doesnt he? Doesn’t have the baind aid, anyone know whether he is going to play? and if not, do i trade him, or just put up with a 0?

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  23. Low, Low, Low, Low, Low, Low, Low, Low………
    Pounce on these blokes in a few weeks if you don’t have them!

    Brendon GODDARD – 597,400 – BreakEven = 187
    Bryce GIBBS – 507,700 – BreakEven = 140
    Joel SELWOOD – 573,200 – BreakEven = 227
    Luke HODGE – 566,800 – BreakEven = 152
    James PODSIADLY – 446,800 – BreakEven = 210
    Daniel GIANSIRACUSA – 406,100 – BreakEven = 144
    Alan DIDAK – 458,700 – BreakEven = 140

    A couple of blokes here that I might have a look at, there are some other players aswell with high breakevens,like, Boomer Hrvey 162 and Sammy Gilbert in the 140s. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Hodgey and Gia throughout the next couple of weeks.

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  24. don’t have him, just for any geelong supporters looking through there geelong coloured shades
    “omg what a gun ”
    “it’s jpod ”
    “yak yak yak yak yak ”
    no aff for those cats supporters

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  25. Also if you don’t have Harris (B/E -82) or Zac Smith (B/E -99), now’s the time to bite the bullet and bring them in.

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  26. Can someone please explain why Shaun Burgoyne’s price went DOWN this week? At the start of the year, to get a price of 482 (what he’s at now) it required an average of 99. Over the first 3 rounds, he’s averaged 106. Someone care to explain?

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  27. Wowee, Johncock’s b/e is 219!
    Will have serious think about him in weeks to come. No byes for the rest of the year, if you’re going for league win that is. Is a very unique pick and no one really pays attention to his scores but he started at $493,100 for a reason and would surely have to find some old form soonish.

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  28. ummm, well….igot no explanation for it,averaging 106 should get you 500k =, dif he scores 100 again, maybe something to pay more attention to…

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  29. It’s all got to do with the “Magic Number” CM, even Gibbs avg 113 still loses $600 bucks but is up on his avg of 104.5 in 2010.

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  30. i can’t type today, if instead of dif, + instead of =, space in between i got, yer that’s preetty much it

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  31. PA, is this true? I heard it was average x 5 is your price, obviously not all in one round but keep moving up until gets to that?

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  32. I’m considering bring in ryan griffen this week before he rises in price, he has been very solid first 2 round and looks like he might continue?
    thoughts?

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  33. Gave consideration to R Griffen today for MM R3 – The Mids. Looks like he’s going to have a great season.

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  34. Going to trade liam anthony before he loses value .. He has only had like 50% tog .. Which really worried me .

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  35. Has yet to play against a team with a reasonable tagger/defensive pressure . That will be the test for him as in the past he has failed miserably with the extra attention.

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  36. Yeah I think you should be a regular thread writer TC/JC/. Maybe you should have a word to Motts et al. 🙂

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  37. Has it got to do with the extra players? I know that with the 3 extra players on our benches and the salary cap staying at $10m, all prices were reduced across the board.

    So maybe, his 1st price was a reflection of a higher average?

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  38. I need help!! I want to do a couple of trades (of course i’ll wait unitl team sheats are out). Please talk me out of this one.

    Deledio -> S.Martin/Suckling
    Watts -> Rioli

    P.S. I’m only playing for leagues so the Hawks byes don’t bother me.

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  39. Yes there is a magic number involved, but there is also scalling. I’m not sure exactly (or at all) how this works. I think Brad is pretty close.

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  40. Hold onto to Lids he’ll remain a keeper and his average will be high by years end.

    Watts is a spud. Get on the Sizzle train.

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  41. It’s because the price of ALL players combined cannot change and is based on the real AFL salary cap (easier to see this in DT where they use the actual salary cap for each team rather than normalising it to $10,000,000 as they do in Supercoach). That means that as some players prices go up (especially after round 3 with all the cheap rookies making major gains in price), other players prices (even those making or exceeding their average from last year) will come down to keep the total player price pool (“salary cap”) the same from week to week. This is also why the “Magic Number” is not actually set and varies slightly from week to week – it’s also why B/E’s and predicted price changes are close approximations rather than being exact.

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  42. i traded josh gibson for brett deledio which was by accident but i wanted gibson
    Should i waste my trade and bring delideo back for jack grimes or paul duffield

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  43. Also i got heppel as a midfield reserve should i take swallow or harris and leave heppel in the midfield or should i take out duigan or andy otten and bring goddard into my midfield

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  44. Trade Duffield for Delidio – and whip yourself severely for getting rid of ‘Lids in the first place – Bad Call. Do NOT bring Goddard into the midfield. As a back he will (eventually) outscore all other back premiums by a large magnitude; as a centre he will end up being similar to a vast array of players (Swan, Ablett, Pendles, J Selwood). Keep him where he has the most value (the backline) so that you have the free space to trade in more of that nuggety Swan, Ablett, Pendles, Hodge, Judd, Selwood midfield goodness later on.

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