Multi Betting On AFL Football

Written by Duck on March 23 2011

Post Updated – Started fixing up the maths then it got all too hard. Should have used Excel in the first instance. I guess the hedging every leg does get too expensive and if the odds aren’t favourable then it gets out of the question. Laying off against the last leg or 2 only or picking a 5 way multi with all bets being shortest odds and laying off as required on better paying onces would be more favourable. Thanks for the comments guys.

I’d been meaning to write a few posts on some betting strategies i employ each season, and Motts post on Punting yesterday has given me a good opportunity to do so.

Firstly, i don’t profess to have invented this strategy but i have used it many times over the last 4 or 5 seasons. I will use Mott’s multi bet as my example, it’s quite detailed so pay attention.

The Multi Bet;

Carlton $1.32 over Richmond $3.45 into

Collingwood $1.07 over Port $8.50 into

Western Bulldogs $1.53 over Essendon $2.50 into

Sydney $2.20 over Melbourne $1.67 into

North Melbourne $2.25 over West Coast $1.65 will return odd of $10.70.

Motts has chosen to wager $10, i will use $100 as my example and you’ll see why a bit later. If i do wager $100 and all 5 legs of that bet win we stand to win $1070.

Now, here’s the strategy. The multi bet strategy relies on several key points;

1./ You select the winner of the first game in your multi, in this case Carlton over Richmond on Thursday night. If they lose, you’re $100 is gone aswell.

2./ Ideally you will not have 2 games in your multi being played at the same time, i.e Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday arvo, Saturday night, Sunday early game and Sunday late game would be the optimum 6 leg bet.

3./ You have a significant size bankroll set aside for the punt.

He’s invested $100 so he needs to make that back. ASSUMING he wins the first leg his multi bet is still “alive” and he’s 1 step closer to winning the $1070. Now he needs to lay off against each subsequent leg of the multi, with the aim of protecting his total investment.

Leg 2 is Collingwood $1.07 over Port $8.50. It’s a pretty safe bet Collingwood will get up but seeing as the odds on Port are so big we’ll bet anyway. Now he needs to put $20 on Port @ $8.50 which will win him $170 which covers his $100 initial outlay and even puts a few bucks back in his kicker.

Total spend on betting is now $120. Assuming Collingwood get up we’re now 2 legs from 5 and now move on to Western Bulldogs $1.53 over Essendon $2.50. We now back Essendon for $70 @ $2.50 to win $75. If they do we’ve covered all outgoings, if not and the Western Bulldogs get up we’re now 3 legs from 5, and much closer to the $1070 payday.

Playing the rest of the weekend out, we need to cover $190 worth of bets and it’s Sydney $2.20 over Melbourne $1.67. This is where the bankroll comes into play. We’ll need to load up $120 @ $1.67 for a return of $300, covering all outgoings and putting $10 in the kicker. If Sydney prevail then it’s 1 leg to go baby. Total spend by the time we hit the last leg is $340 so to cover that we’ll whack $220 on the West Coast @ $1.65 for a return of $363, which … you guessed it, covers our outlay. What we want though is North to get up and give us the big prize, but we’ll settle for a few bucks over evens.

It would have been much better if Collingwood played Port on the final game, at those odds it’s very easy to get our $340 back and even ensure a win by putting say, $100 on Port, returning either $850 for the win, less $440 spend = $410 profit worse case, a further $220 if our original bet comes off.

There’s little benefit in wagering $10 and trying to lay off against it, just ride through and hope you get all 5 and collect the $107. I don’t lay off against the first leg, it gets too expensive too quick, if i lose it then that’s the price i had to pay.There’s much greater incentive in putting a $50 or $100 on the line and stand to pick up a grand in my books. Remember though, if games are played at the same time it’s hard to accurately lay off against your other tips. Also, avoid getting cute with the multi’s, stick with head to head bets, not margins to get extra value.

Tomorrow i’ll write up a much simpler bet i use each year called the Monty Bet.

 

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11 thoughts on “Multi Betting On AFL Football”

  1. I like your theory and will certainly be working on establishing a bank roll to have a crack at some point during the season, but please correct me if I am wrong but aren’t the maths slightly out on leg 4?
    Bets to cover thus far = $170.00
    Total of lay bet = $170.00 (which leaves a total outlay of $340)
    $170 @ 1.67 = $283.90
    Leaving a lose of $56.10
    Am I right or have I missed something?

    Love the punt so look forward to hearing about the Monty bet.

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  2. Like the theory Motts, I normally donate my hard earned to betting agencies over the footy season, I think I might start with 3 or 4 legs until i find me feet.haha jokes sort of there

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  3. “We’ll need to load up $170 @ $1.67 for a return of $200, covering all outgoings and putting $30 in the kicker”, it’s actually a $113.90 profit and a return of $283.90 as Stevo mentioned, Daffy.

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  4. Like the theory but your maths is way off dude,
    Game 3, bombers win you have spent $170 and get back $125 so your down $45.
    Game 4 Melbourne wins you spent $340 get back $200, down $140
    Game 5 EAGLES Definitely win you spent $560 get back $363 so you end up down just under $200.

    You need to bet Game 3 $70+ (say 70 so you get 175 back to cover)

    Game 4 you would have to bet 270 for a 445 return so your total is now $440 spent I’d multi is still alive.

    Game 5 you then need to outlay 700 for a return of roughly 1145 putting you up $5 bucks if the last game loses the multi or 85 down if multi comes through

    So its not worth it really

    If your going to secure your multi always wait til the last leg then outlay enough that you come out ahead eitherway if not just lose your 100 and that’s it. its a pointless exercise in my opinion trying to cover every game.

    I prefer the line /over under double bets, 4options usually $3-$4 per option 2 leg multi gives you odds of between $10-16 to 1
    more risk but more reward over only 2 games rather than 5

    Sorry to shut it down duck but thats my opinion

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  5. i read it twice just trying to make sense of it but still came up with the same conclusion as nic_nat_09…
    please tell me if there is something i am missing as this brown fox loves a punt;

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  6. you lost me at i’d been lol. But can i ask a question duck. If i just put 100$ on the 5 team multi if i just left the 100 bucks on there and all the teams won would i win 1070 dollars? Also if one of those teams lost but 4 won would i win any money? thx

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  7. Yep agree with the comments there Duck. No point hedging every leg. Risk/reward theory. However, you could tweak it a little and reduce your risk from the multi, and still make it interesting.

    My example. Lets say you pick 4 games in a multi. Rules:

    1. Pick 2 games where you think a team in each is pretty much going to win.
    2. In the other two games, pick the favourite.

    So, I for example the four games I pick are:

    Carlton @ $1.32
    Collingwood +24.5 @ $1.33
    West B’dogs @1.53 (Ess $2.50)
    West Coast @ $1.65 (NM $2.38)

    Total odds $4.68. If I bet $100 and I’m correct I get back $468. Profit, $368.

    Carlton & Collingwood ( Coll by a margin of +24.5) are my certainties, so I won’t hedge against in these two games. That’s the only risk I take and I think it is small.

    So, assuming Carlton and Collingwood win my outlay is still $100 and I’m still in the game.

    Then I put $70 on Ess at $2.50. My total outlay is now $170. If WB win, i’m still in the game and with a profit of $298 if don’t hedge the last game and WC win. If Ess win I get $175 (~breakeven and game over).

    Then I put $125 on NM at $2.38. My total outlay is now $295. If WC win my multi pays off and I make a profit $173 ($468 – $295). If NM win I get $297 (~breakeven and game over).

    The only way you can avoid the risk is not play the multi. But you can mitigate the risk. Of course if there’s a ‘draw’, its game over!

    (sorry for the long the post!)

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  8. Just worked it out, you’d need to spend roughly $1075 with the latest odds to get a maximum return of $1198.55 on those games hedging every bet. I guess if you got the outlay and your patient enough you could do it, guaranteeing you won’t loose and try to build up the fortune over the whole season.

    @ Current odds:

    $100 original outlay – $1198.55 multi payout

    Leg 2: Hedge $12 on Port to get back $120 in case of upset

    So far total outlay $112

    Leg 3: Hedge another $72 on essendon@$2.57 to get $185 back if essendon win

    Outlay now $184 – Up $1 🙂

    Leg 4: Hedge a further $244 on melbourne@$1.75 to get back $427 – up $3 – making a killing

    Outlay $428

    Leg 5: Hedge a massive $660 on West Coast@$1.65 to get $1089

    Total Outlay = $1088 – up $1…i think

    So if multi works out you make a profit of $110.55….which considering isn’t too bad for a weekend watching footy!

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