Post Updated – Started fixing up the maths then it got all too hard. Should have used Excel in the first instance. I guess the hedging every leg does get too expensive and if the odds aren’t favourable then it gets out of the question. Laying off against the last leg or 2 only or picking a 5 way multi with all bets being shortest odds and laying off as required on better paying onces would be more favourable. Thanks for the comments guys.
I’d been meaning to write a few posts on some betting strategies i employ each season, and Motts post on Punting yesterday has given me a good opportunity to do so.
Firstly, i don’t profess to have invented this strategy but i have used it many times over the last 4 or 5 seasons. I will use Mott’s multi bet as my example, it’s quite detailed so pay attention.
The Multi Bet;
Carlton $1.32 over Richmond $3.45 into
Collingwood $1.07 over Port $8.50 into
Western Bulldogs $1.53 over Essendon $2.50 into
Sydney $2.20 over Melbourne $1.67 into
North Melbourne $2.25 over West Coast $1.65 will return odd of $10.70.
Motts has chosen to wager $10, i will use $100 as my example and you’ll see why a bit later. If i do wager $100 and all 5 legs of that bet win we stand to win $1070.
Now, here’s the strategy. The multi bet strategy relies on several key points;
1./ You select the winner of the first game in your multi, in this case Carlton over Richmond on Thursday night. If they lose, you’re $100 is gone aswell.
2./ Ideally you will not have 2 games in your multi being played at the same time, i.e Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday arvo, Saturday night, Sunday early game and Sunday late game would be the optimum 6 leg bet.
3./ You have a significant size bankroll set aside for the punt.
He’s invested $100 so he needs to make that back. ASSUMING he wins the first leg his multi bet is still “alive” and he’s 1 step closer to winning the $1070. Now he needs to lay off against each subsequent leg of the multi, with the aim of protecting his total investment.
Leg 2 is Collingwood $1.07 over Port $8.50. It’s a pretty safe bet Collingwood will get up but seeing as the odds on Port are so big we’ll bet anyway. Now he needs to put $20 on Port @ $8.50 which will win him $170 which covers his $100 initial outlay and even puts a few bucks back in his kicker.
Total spend on betting is now $120. Assuming Collingwood get up we’re now 2 legs from 5 and now move on to Western Bulldogs $1.53 over Essendon $2.50. We now back Essendon for $70 @ $2.50 to win $75. If they do we’ve covered all outgoings, if not and the Western Bulldogs get up we’re now 3 legs from 5, and much closer to the $1070 payday.
Playing the rest of the weekend out, we need to cover $190 worth of bets and it’s Sydney $2.20 over Melbourne $1.67. This is where the bankroll comes into play. We’ll need to load up $120 @ $1.67 for a return of $300, covering all outgoings and putting $10 in the kicker. If Sydney prevail then it’s 1 leg to go baby. Total spend by the time we hit the last leg is $340 so to cover that we’ll whack $220 on the West Coast @ $1.65 for a return of $363, which … you guessed it, covers our outlay. What we want though is North to get up and give us the big prize, but we’ll settle for a few bucks over evens.
It would have been much better if Collingwood played Port on the final game, at those odds it’s very easy to get our $340 back and even ensure a win by putting say, $100 on Port, returning either $850 for the win, less $440 spend = $410 profit worse case, a further $220 if our original bet comes off.
There’s little benefit in wagering $10 and trying to lay off against it, just ride through and hope you get all 5 and collect the $107. I don’t lay off against the first leg, it gets too expensive too quick, if i lose it then that’s the price i had to pay.There’s much greater incentive in putting a $50 or $100 on the line and stand to pick up a grand in my books. Remember though, if games are played at the same time it’s hard to accurately lay off against your other tips. Also, avoid getting cute with the multi’s, stick with head to head bets, not margins to get extra value.
Tomorrow i’ll write up a much simpler bet i use each year called the Monty Bet.
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