Myth-Smiters: JPK’s Slow Starts

Written by Father Dougal on March 21 2017

I have heard talk, rumors, and even myths about various players and how they do/do not perform. If true, these are good to know and can help us make good decisions. But if they are not true, and are in fact myths, then we sure don’t want to make decisions based on myth and legends! Who would want to lead their life based on stuff some bloke wrote when there is no evidence for it? Madness! So, I’m going to take a look at some of the ‘myths’ I’ve heard, to see if the facts match the rumors.  If so we have learned something useful. If not, then as far as myths go, it will be time to smite with mighty smiting!

Today’s ‘Myth’: Josh P Kennedy (SYD) always starts the season slowly. Let’s just look at his average over the first 7 matches, which is about 1/3 a season, vs his average over his last 15 matches for, say, the last five seasons.  Those numbers below.

 

Round 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
1 75 127 91 147 137
2 95 130 109 108 139
3 124 61 110 136 113
4 97 118 120 80 107
5 101 105 144 109 173
6 99 135 105 102 118
7 125 122 130 143 101
Ave 1-7 102.3 114.0 115.6 117.9 126.9
           
8   104 153 151 132
9 119 73 151 56 122
10 161 62   126 102
11 101 97 115 86 86
12 99   126    
13 104 114 102 107 94
14   143 118 88 123
15 101 126 130 96 97
16 117 105 72 107 110
17 140 107 140 108 157
18 127 110 105 82 127
19 137 83 100 68 90
20 95 136 118 93 168
21 120 129 39 136 117
22 90 117   89 126
23 155 121   101 105
Ave 8-23 119.0 108.5 113.0 99.6 117.1
           
Season Ave
113.4 110.2 113.9 105.4 120.2

Looks like he started out stronger over the first part of the year in four out of the last five seasons! The only one where he started slowly was 2016. I suppose that would explain why people might think he starts slowly, since recent events are more memorable, but the data shows otherwise. I suppose he could have eaten a magic “from-now-on-have-a-slow-start-to-the-season” biscuit at Christmas 2015, but that does not seem likely.

Conclusion:  Myth!  There is no reason to expect him to have a slow start to the 2017 season. He could, just like last season, or he could start fast like the previous four.

(Are there any myths you’d like us to look into over the next few weeks?  Something you have heard often in our Forums but weren’t really sure?)

 

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28 thoughts on “Myth-Smiters: JPK’s Slow Starts”

  1. Is there any way to smite or verify the statement:
    Sam Mitchell will have a negative impact on Matt Priddis’ scores?

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    1. Very good question and one I would love to see answered; that might be difficult though. How about ‘will no Naitanui have a negative impact on Priddis’ scores’?

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          1. I’ve had a quick look at Priddis’ 2016 numbers:
            With NicNat: averaged 106.7 in 14 games
            Without NicNat: averaged 113 in 7 games
            Obviously a small sample but still a surprising result for mine. Re Mitchell, it’s also worth remembering that Jelwood upped his average by 6 ppg after Danger turned up.

            Sorry I know this is the JPK thread, but I’ve been trying to convince myself to pick Priddis for weeks and I think I’ve finally done it!

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            1. Woah before you go jumping to conclusions there’s good reasons for both of those stats and they have nothing to do with NicNat or Danger. Priddis was playing injured for a number of games during the first half of 2016 resulting in his low average and Selwood was carrying all kinds of injuries through 2015, his 2016 was simply returning to the norm. Apart from 2015, 2016 was Selwoods lowest ave since 2009. I’m not saying Selwoods better or worse with Danger, or that Priddis is better or worse without NicNat, just saying stats can be very misleading without the full story.

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              1. Oh I agree, and like I said it’s a very small sample size. But I really did think Priddis’ numbers would suffer a lot more without his primary ruckman.

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                1. Yeah Priddis looks like a very good pick, take out his injury affected games and his average is up there with JPK and Hanners

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    2. Only with a really epic amount of research. We/I don’t know enough about career progressions and predicting in isolation, without extra stuff like the impact of another player. I know in theory how to approach the problem but, not small. If I can get enough tim in the off season I plan to do some number to use for better predictions, but I don’t know how likely that is this year.

      I’d also bet the answer would be inconclusive 🙂

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  2. Looking at those figures, each year his early season figures have dropped. this implies he is slowing down as he gets older.

    Nothing against this author who in my opinion is one of the greatest provider of useful insights I have come across. I would just like to provide a different point of view (I have written a post on another site)

    Also, i did a 3 year comparison from season start to the bye round.
    2016 – 108.3
    2015 – 103.1
    2014 – 123.7

    post bye
    2016 – 120.2 = 12 points better in second half
    2015 – 117.4 = 14 points better in second half
    2014 – 105.9* = 18 points worse in second half * – injury affected

    result – post bye upgrade target

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    1. Perfectly valid way to look at it. The more numbers the better. One reason I put the numbers and not just a conclusion is so people can both check and expand on what I post.

      How you define the question also makes a big deal in the answer. I defined start at the first third of the season, with a middle and an end. Start being before the byes is another way to look at it. He could be getting tired right before the byes.

      Anyways, thank you and good on you for thinking and posting!

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  3. I believe Kennedy only scored under 90 once last season, a 75 in Round 1 when he played mostly forward. What are the odds he doesn’t start forward this season?

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    1. 85%

      They are missing Papley/Heeney down there so he might offer something. I dunno, might just be pulling at strings.

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  4. With this kind of intelligence and debate flying around I’m curious as to how SCT players, leagues etc go. I predict very well, even if my little brain is FULL 🙂

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    1. One of our brethren, Raj, finished 6th* last year. Another, Andy B, finished 14th* the year before.

      * I’m probably out by 1 or 2 placings but it was around there

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      1. Hall of Fame has these:
        2016
        Overall 9th – Raj

        2015
        Overall 3rd – nickoless
        Overall 6th – sodes
        Overall 14th – Andy B

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  5. I think another source of the myth is that he has often (but not always) started slowly in the Dreamteam codes, and people have wrongly assumed that this applies to SuperCoach as well.

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  6. “Who would want to lead their life based on stuff some bloke wrote when there is no evidence for it? Madness!”

    I see what you did there, Father.

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