Points of Disaster
If you read much about Supercoach, which I know you do because you are reading this, then you have certainly heard of a point of difference. I see that all over fantasy sports now; the idea that you can’t have the same players as everyone else and win. While that may be technically correct, (the best kind of correct,) it is misleading and can result in people making bad decisions, on purpose. I suppose with over 200,000 teams it is likely that a few times people will start with identical teams. It is possible that they will then make 30 identical trades…..barely possible. As injuries mount and we see who’s starting where there will be some convergence of teams, but even then people will make radically different choices, even if they have identical teams at some time.
To start with people like all sorts of different viable strategies: “Guns and Rookies”, “Mid Price Madness”, “All about Value”, and combinations, and others. Oh, and “I don’t need no stinking plan”, and “I pick guys I like”, and “I got drunk right before lockout and OMG what was I thinking.” Different plans mean different players are needed, and there are many ways to make each type of team; especially the plans involving alcohol.
Then, we all have to fit players into our plans. Think about all the players that need to be evaluated and how we come to different conclusions. Want one premium defender? Which one? Some people will go right to the high scorer from last season. Others will pick the best defender from their club. A poll asking who will be the top scoring defender will get a dozen or more answers. Think of all the factors that go into evaluating a player: historical scoring, age, team, position security, job security, injury history, tattoo density, etc. It’s a miracle there is so much agreement, and even when there is a lot of agreement many teams won’t have the most popular players. I plan to have Gary this season, but if someone decided not to risk his shoulder, well, that isn’t a crazy opinion.
So, what’s my point? You do not have to do anything other than pick who you think will be the very best players fitting into the very best plan, in order to be different from everyone else and thus be able to win. Picking players who you think are not the best in order to have PODs is really just picking an inferior team. Oh, and someone else will be making the same picks you are because they think they really are the best, so you will end up still similar to someone else’s team. An inferior someone else, who picked the less popular player because they incorrectly thought them better. (You are smarter than everyone else, right….?)
What would you think of someone who said “My plan is to make a few inferior decisions because I am worried a lot of other people are going to make good decisions and I want to be different.” So, yeah……
Never pick anyone because they are a POD. Pick who you think best no matter what other people think, and the PODs will happen on their own. Don’t be a POD person.
(Disclaimer: this article not valid if it is the last round of the season and you are #1 or #2 in the world.)
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