Poll – Hibberd

Written by Schwarzwalder on April 3 2018

With a change in role in the Melbourne back half, Hibberd has been disappointing with his SC-output over the first two Rounds.  No longer taking the kick-ins and still refusing to tackle any opposition players, Hibberd seems a shadow of his 2017-self.

Now is the best chance to make a corrective trade, the big decisions need to be made.  Either you hold Hibberd for the year, or now is the time to make a move.  Where do you stand on Hibberd?  Tell us all about it……….

 

Should we consider moving on Michael Hibberd?

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38 thoughts on “Poll – Hibberd”

  1. I’ve got him and in the past I would have had no hesitation about trading him to an inform Shaw or Simmo. But every other year I’ve played SC I have run out of trades before the end of the season. So for now I will wait and see. It’s a marathon not a sprint and he may yet come back.

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    1. Agreed on wanting to save trades, but I think it comes down to whether or not you believe either (a) he’s just starting slow, or (b) he’s genuinely had a role change.

      I’m personally leaning more towards the latter, but it’s definitely a bit of a luxury trade, as I don’t seem to have any other MAJOR problems to deal with (apart from Ryder last week).

      Plus, as I mentioned in a below comment, his B/E is pretty high (175), and if he has another 70-75 game, he’ll drop about $35,000. So that’s also something to be mindful of.

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  2. I’ve only got 2 premos in my backline (the other being Laird) so I need to move him on, the only question is who to swap him for

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    1. Depends on who you already have, but if it’s your only trade, then a like-for-like would be ideal (Simpson, Yeo, Hurley), or save some cash and bring in someone like Shaw.

      OR, if you have Sicily in your FWD line, swing him into your DEF line and bring in one of a number of solid FWD options.

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  3. A lot of his points last year from all of the kick-ins he took for Melbourne last year. So far he has taken one kick-in all year!

    Additionally, Melbourne just aren’t looking to him as the main distributor out of their back half anymore, similar to what happened to Shaw last year.

    I don’t think this is a form slump, simply a role change, and I’m not putting up with another Heath Shaw after last year!

    Cya Hibberd!

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    1. Tend to agree with this all and the irony here is that I’m looking at trading him to Heath Shaw!

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  4. I’m going to give Hibberd 1 last chance as they play North this week. If he doesn’t score well I will likely trade him but I am happy to lose some money to give him a final chance

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    1. Be mindful that he has a pretty high B/E of 175.

      If he has another 70-75 game, he’ll drop about $35,000 (from $545,000 down to $510,000)!

      Conversely, I’m guessing the players that you are considering to bring in for him have relatively low B/E’s, and would likely go up in price themselves.

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      1. Too hard to trade him this week as I have Beams that I need to trade as well as dow. Dow won’t make money with that average so I need to correct him, as rookie cash flow is more important. If I could make 3 trades then I would

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        1. Agreed that Hibberd is a bit of a luxury trade. I haven’t seem much of Brisbane so far this year, so can’t comment on Beams’ poor scores.

          However, unless you’re trading Dow to a ‘must-have’ MID rookie (Kelly, Holman), he could possibly wait (his B/E is only 33, so he’s not going to lose money).

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          1. This now puts me in a tough decision as I want to bring in Dusty for Beams but I don’t have the funds to do that if I only bring in Simpson for Hibberd. I’m about 10k short so my next 2 options are Hurn and Shaw but then Bye rounds are a factor

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  5. He’s my only concern.
    Trading him and wouldn’t mind extra cash ($0 in the bank)

    T/U: Shaw + 85k
    T/D: Simpson +20k

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  6. Only seen two games so going to hold to gather larger sample size. Will reassess after r4.

    Trades are needed for upgrading team to full-premium, not sideways trading thus getting nowhere.

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  7. Thinking of moving on from hibberd, but need to know first if O’Connor, Murphy or Naughton are reliable enough to start on the field..
    TU Yes
    TD No

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    1. Maybe if you could loophole with them. But straight-up, one of them on field would not leave me confident week to week.

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  8. Been looking at the JLT games and in the first game against North he scored 121 but in the next 3 games he went 65, 74, 72
    That first North game included Lewis, Lever and Vince and there was only 5 behinds from North that game.
    Looking at the stats He has gone 27,23,20,20 disposals with 3 tackles over 4 games. His game against Geelong he had 3 contested possessions but against Brisbane he had 7 but went at 65% efficiency. He is getting about 4 rebound 50s a game.
    Comparing to his last 4 games last year he got 30,22,23,22 disposals but more were kicks. He also had 10 tackles in the 4 game with 0 in his final game. He had scores of 103,107,126,67. He was getting more rebound 50s and had 21 marks compared to 12 in total this year. He was also getting more contested possessions.
    That 67 he had 6 clangers 7cp 15up 0 tackles.

    So i feel it isnt the Kick ins that are making him lose points. I feel he may be down 1 or 2 possessions a game but he is really lacking in his contested possessions and marks.
    Also look at the scoring he did last year, 18 games 8 games 110+, 6 games below 85, 3 were below 70. The 4 other games was 90,91,103,107. It shows he is an inconsistent scorer.
    He went on a run of games after the bye of 83,82,91,110,64 then went 124,140,81,103,107,126. He seems to play better against the better teams as he scored from 8 games all above 90 and 5 were 110+ his other 3 110+ games came against North,GC and Brisbane.
    Looking at these i feel i will keep him as i dont want to run out of trades like i always do

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  9. Hibberd was a flip of the coin with Yeo for me. But hearing so many comments about his role change has me concerned. I already need to trade Bell (was going to keep him as a loophole, but Brisbane weirdly have so many early games to start the season). So I’m thinking Hibberd/Bell for Petracca/Curnow as they were two players I had my eye on but couldn’t fit in.
    TU: Pull the trigger
    TD: Hold off and look at Bell only

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  10. Given the YES vote is at 53% (at the time I write this), can we have a follow up poll of who to trade Hibberd to? Am 1505 overall and Hibberd is really my only concern (a slow start to Bont being a lesser issue). Have all the rookies and want to come out swinging so will make one of my first ever sideways trades. I think Simpson is the leading candidate but want to put it to the floor for expert advice.

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  11. No, gone for now. Going into the Danger/ Zerret fund. I’ve started with 13 premo’s and will be adding to that next week for Zerret. Not sure for who yet:\

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  12. I’ll do you all a favor and trade him out so he can spring into action. Can’t believe I got sucked into him. Stoopid.

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  13. Melbourne have already said over the coming weeks they want to free hibberd up into the same role he was doing in 2017 so ill keep him for a little while longer i think.

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  14. Hello super coach seers!

    thoughts on Geary for Hibberd?

    TU: You’ll be rich and Geary has been told only to focus on his SC scores this year by Ricky Nixon.
    TD: Geary is like putting it all on red at a Russian roulette table. There’s no point counting your chips coz you’ll get a bullet in the end.

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  15. Not sure where this ‘change of role’ idea started. Lewis played behind the ball while rotating through the mids last year, Vince has been a defender for several years now, and Lever is hardly like-for-like. Melbourne, like every team, have a handful of players who take the kick-in and Hibberd wasn’t heavily favoured last season.

    Goodwin has also shown a habit of playing players in their natural position (Trac/Salem into the mids, Watts/Melksham/TMac back forward, where they played as juniors). It’s unlikely he’s going to decide to reinvent his 28 year old All-Australian HBF (who he also coached at Essendon).

    Hibberds an outside player who’s scores will drop with his kicking efficiency and uncontested footy.

    If you are looking for an excuse to trade, then go nuts, but just because people keep repeating the ‘change of role’ mantra, doesn’t make it true.

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    1. The one kick-in over the last 2 games doesn’t worry you? Averaged 17 kicks a game last year and he’s gone 10 and 12 the last 2 games.

      He took heaps last year and would always kick to himself and run on and register a kick. Back to back 20 disposal games, compared to his average 27 disposals would suggest some change, and the reduced kick in duties seem to be just that.

      Is it a trend for the season or just a change up the first few weeks? That’s the million dollar question.

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      1. I haven’t been able to find any stats re: kick-ins for each club. The closest I can find is rebound 50s. Hibberd averaged 6.8 last year and 4.5 this year – so that’s close to 5 extra rebounds over the first two rounds.

        Let’s say all five of those were kick-ins, and effective. From what I can tell, that would be 5 x 4 points = 20.

        10 points extra a game would be handy but doesn’t explain the full ~30 point drop in average so far.

        I’m absolutely no expert in stats or SC scoring, so happy for others to explain it better.

        Much like Betts not kicking goals doesn’t mean a role change, I just think Hibbo is out of form based on a very small sample size.

        I think trading him is a 50/50 call at the moment and I doubt those who do will strongly regret it. My point was more around people’s reasoning, espically when most wouldn’t have watched both Melbourne games.

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        1. I believe kicking in from a behind does not count as a rebound 50. Only turnover rebounds do. I watched game 1 and he was liable for Gazza when he rested forward. I cant comment on game 2 as I was at the Dockers.

          I’m just looking at the significant number of reduced kicks which seem to correlate to the reduced kick ins – might have the same role in general play, but it’s the chip kick and run on from a behind thats missing from the first two rounds.

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