Potentially UnderPriced: DEFs

Written by Schwarzwalder on January 4 2019

One of our long-time Readers has decided to have a crack at the potentially underpriced SuperCoach players of 2019.  I reckon they’ve done a cracking job, just quietly.  Feel free to tell them what you thought in the comments section.  Today we look at the Defenders……….

 

(Written & Created By ‘Anonymous’)

 

Harris Andrews / $480k

Why: average jumped from 69 to 88 in his fourth year, including a 9 round average of 106 between rounds 4-12 (low: 80, high 152). Concussion in round 14 and recovery from it heavily affected his score before finishing the year with 3 scores in the 90’s. Based on his 9 round average he’s potentially under-priced. Ceiling: 110 avg.

 

Why not: key position player, might be expected to take on the big forwards at times which could mean his scoring is inconsistent, also never been on the radar prior to last season, could have just been a spike. Floor: 75 avg.

 

Connor Blakely / $462k

Why: averages of 89 & 85 in the last 2 seasons (his 3rd & 4th season in the AFL) show he has the ability to score. This includes an 11 round average of 110 in 2017 between rounds 6-18 (low: 74, high: 130) and a 4 round average during round 14-18 of 121(!!!) based on nothing other than hope (any Fremantle fans?), these scores were probably during a period where he was getting midfield time. And with Neale gone to Brisbane, there’s a midfield spot with his name on it. Ceiling: 115 avg.

 

Why not: Only played the first 13 games due to a right knee injury that ended his season, however during those games he recorded scores of 67, 66, 63, 48 & 62, as he spent time as a defender. Raises the question; does he get first crack at that midfield spot or continue in defence as a young kid gets the nod. Floor: 80 avg

 

Lachie Weller / $404k

Why: was a key acquisition last off season to play a half-back/wing/half-forward role, clearly in the best 22 and had 10 games above 75 last season despite a slow start. Someone has to score points for Gold Coast, why not the silky smooth running machine with a similar style to other SC friendly players. Ceiling: 90 avg.

 

Why not: averaged 72 & 74 in the last 2 seasons.. no real evidence to show he’s ready to become a 95+ scorer coming into his 5th season… and he plays for Gold Coast. Floor: 70 avg.

 

Nic Newman / $394k

Why: averaged 83 in 2017 in his first taste of AFL action while playing the SC friendly role of half-back/wing including the infamous 151 in his 5th game, the boy can score. Despite struggles to get in the side and a role change, he was still able to put up a 110 in round 21 last year, the boy CAN score. A move to Carlton and Docherty going down for another year means he potentially slots straight into Docherty’s 2017 role, a role that saw Docherty top the charts in 2017. Ceiling: 95 avg.

 

Why not: a mid-aged recruit 2 years ago, he’s 25 and probably not an improver, a new team means his role is not defined and anything outside of that half-back role would be SC suicide. A hard floor to define, first dibs on half back and his floor is high, 80 avg. anything else, 50 avg.

 

Andrew McGrath / $384k

Why: 20 games in both his AFL seasons, he’s clearly in Essendon’s best 22 and 3rd year breakouts are a clear theme in SuperCoach. His biggest asset; he passes the eye-test, he just oozes class & looks like a star when he’s got the ball. Breaks into the midfield – Ceiling: 105 avg.

 

Why not: his SuperCoach potential relies heavily on the position he plays in, Essendon are deep in midfield and with Shiel added to the top of that list there are massive doubts on whether this is the year he becomes part of the rotation. Floor: much of the same, 70 avg.

 

Jasper Pittard / $366k

Why: after averaging 81 & 92 in 2015 and 2016 playing a rebounding half back role, injuries and form have stagnated his progression however at 27 and at a new club, a 90+ average isn’t out of the question if the move has reinvigorated him. Ceiling: 90 avg.

 

Why not: hasn’t looked overly flexible during his career, he’s either an attacking half-back/wing or he’s not in the team, Luke McDonald seems to be his biggest rival for the best 22 if they only go with the 1. Floor: 70 avg.

 

Kade Kolodjashnij / $364k

Why: an average of 89 in 2015 including 8 scores of 105+ had him as one of the hot commodities during the 2016 pre-season, a young rebounding half-back, he was going to be a staple in SC sides for a decade. For one reason or another, this hasn’t eventuated. A change of scenery and with Lever down, Hibberd taking a more defensive role, and Jordan Lewis being a year older, has he been recruited to fill that half-back role? Ceiling: 90 avg.

 

Why not: season averages of 69, 73 & 67 for a struggling Gold Coast since his breakout year. Maybe he’s just not very good. Floor: 65 avg.

 

Luke McDonald / $362k

Why: increased his average from 64 in 2016 to 84 in 2017 with a 9 round average of 91 to end the year, had many tipping him to take a further step in 2018, what followed was a poultry 67 average with just the 1 ton, that ton however was 132 which again showcased what he is capable of, can he put that season behind him and get back on track to SuperCoach relevancy? Ceiling: 90 avg.

 

Why not: Pittard coming into the side has thrown doubt on his role, at an awkward price is it too big a a risk for someone who will at best, be a rollercoaster. Floor: 65 avg.

 

Aaron Francis / $351k

Why: ended the year with scores of 86, 94 & 104 and another player who seemingly just passes the eye-test, maybe a year to early, maybe slightly overpriced to be worth the risk but could be the next Hurley, Howe, Rance type premium defender. Ceiling: 90 avg.

 

Why not: just not enough evidence to take the leap of faith, 10 games in 3 years means he also hasn’t quite played enough AFL football at this stage to say he truly feels at home. Expect a good a year but not worth the pick. Floor: 70 avg.

 

Jayden Hunt / $243k 

Why: an excitement machine who has the ability to score big (2 110+ scores in 2017) a difficult 2018 has him really really cheap and if he can manage his way back into the side and get a good score early, could be worth the extra dollars over an unknown rookie. Ceiling 75-80 avg.

 

Why not: risky to pick a player who is $130k more expensive than the common rookie and hasn’t locked down a spot in the side. Money better spent elsewhere. Floor: expensive captains loophole.

 

Corey Ellis / $233k 

Why: was a highly rated young half back flanker with tremendous foot skills who showed a bit when given a run of games in 2016 but just doesn’t find the ball enough and hasn’t been able to lock down a spot in a really strong premiership side. If he can get into a much weaker Gold Coast 22, he might just find himself stationed where the ball will spend most of its time in 2018. Ceiling: 85 avg?

 

Why not: 2015, ‘17 & ‘18 haven’t been kind, and with scores of 15, 16 & 18 in 2015 and a 23 in 2017 his inability to get the ball could be a serious problem in a team that won’t have a lot of possession. Floor: 45 avg

 

Have you considered any of these fellas for your starting line-up?

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19 thoughts on “Potentially UnderPriced: DEFs”

  1. This is excellent. Thanks ANONYMOUS!!
    Have looked at most/all of them …
    Blakely if he gets the role ahead of Cerra has to be considered. As does Weller who will surely be playing an outside role to Miles? Like Jayden Hunt as a player and he is definitely underpriced, but there is stiff competition at the Dees and his JS may not be rock solid.
    Is this the year McGrath steps up for more mid-time, with Shiel’s offseason arrival? Might be a year or two early for Francis who needs to nail down the freed-up role off half back first, though he is a real decent mark.

    Just top line thoughts. But thanks again. This is awesome.

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    1. Roberton is significantly underpriced. BUT his heart issue is still a concern. He had a monitor surgically inserted last year and while he put in a brilliant 2km time-trial, remains on a managed program. If all comes right, I hope it does, then there is money to be had and potentially even a D6. But there are risks.
      Brodie Smith made it back late last year with a couple of typical yo-yo scores. ACLs are more of a concern for me. Milera may also be a third of the way through a serious breakout at Adelaide; all the stats are there to back it up. Personally, I think there are better underpriced DEFs who have less risk attached.

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  2. Great work anonymous, some interesting picks there.

    Surprised not to see a few I’m considering though – namely Burton, Mills and Roberton. Wonder if any other coaches have any extra insight on these guys?

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    1. Burton is underpriced by $100k minimum, but is that enough?
      Don’t know if enough about Mills to comment. Roberton(see above).

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    2. Thanks Anon.

      I went McGrath when A Brayshaw didn’t turn up R1 last year.
      Maybe a year too early but once bitten twice shy.

      Also Duffer

      Not sold on Burton.
      Ports last few recruits, Rocky, Watts and Motlop haven’t really set the SC world on fire. I’m tipping Port to drop a few spots this year but who really knows?
      Too much risk for mine.

      Mills I like more.
      Priced slightly unders after only playing 9 games early last year.For me its all about his role.
      I think Lloyd will get more mid time with Hanners gone. Sydney really need his speed and kicking though there.
      If Mills gets Lloyds attacking half back spot he could ave 95+ this season.
      He also takes quite a few intercept marks from memory.

      Worth keeping an eye on for sure.

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    1. I’m thinking Lloyd might be to 2019 what Billings and Hibberd were in 2018!
      I hope I’m wrong and will be looking to pick him up at some point, but priced at $608k, he’ll have to ave. 120+ just to maintain his price.
      Further, with his Rd13 bye, I think Grundy, Gawn, Oliver, Neale and Dangerfield all should be starting or picked up before him, with other decent starting options available in the backline.
      Just my tuppence worth and like I say, am more than happy to be proved wrong, but reckon there are better points and value options with less risk when considering his bye.

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      1. Different strokes for different folks.

        For me Billings never was SC relevant. He had a purple patch at the end of 2017 and a whole bunch got sucked in last year.

        Hibbered was All Australian in 2017 and fell off a cliff with a different role last year.

        I’m not sure how lloyd can suffer the same fate. If anything I believe a better role in midfield awaits.
        Lloyd is about to hit his prime and already plays a very SC friendly roll.
        I’m willing to back him to be the no 1 defensive scorer next year.
        Whitfield and Crisp are the only two other guys in the top 10 from last year to play 22 games.
        Sicliy, Laird and Simo are all only $40K or less more expensive.
        Unless you are willing to go Whifield at D1 and a few cheaper guys, I would be trying to find that extra cash for Lloyd.

        Yes he maybe a bit cheaper at some point.
        But you could say that about a lot of the uber Premo’s on other lines too.
        As for the Byes I only have Grundy , Danger and Neale and they’re all on different lines.

        I’m still going Lloyd at D1 for now.

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        1. I don’t doubt that he may be the #1 DEF in 2019 and that more MID-time awaits. He played the second-half of their Elimination Final vs GWS in midfield, was tagged by De Boer and posted an 80 (30pts in the second half).
          If his first ten games are even 20% better than they were last year, he should be priced around $520k at Rd7. I could be wrong, but I reckon I can get more pts/$ on field elsewhere with my initial $10mn. and with less risk; marking him down as one of my very first upgrade targets.

          As you say, diff’rent strokes for diff’rent folks 😉

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        2. Do you feel the same about dunkly? He’s doing my head in. Bontempelli, dalahaus, McLean, wallis… They all have purple patches over there but never follow thru. In regards to freo’s thoughts on billings.

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          1. To be honest mate, at this time of year I’m playing devil’s advocate as much as anything else. Hoping to discover the reasons why I/we should/shouldn’t be starting certain players. Lloyd is closer to a start for me than he was a month ago, I will admit that.
            I won’t be making a decision on ANY of those Dogs until after the JLT series; Billings the same. Dahlhaus is on my watchlist now he’s at the cattery.
            I haven’t been on team picker for a couple of weeks now and won’t for another month at least. I took a screenshot of what I THINK will be my starting 12-14 and will need significant evidence to change my mind; I was dissuaded off a couple last year when I should have stuck to my guns. The great thing about SC, like life, is that we all have different opinions/tastes; and SCT is a brilliant (the best) platform to share those thoughts and ideas.

            What I have been doing is planning/ranking my premos by line and byes, adding players, re-prioritising others where appropriate, so I armed to make the picks that I think are best for a decent crack at SC2019.

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      2. If your starting him as a keeper it dosn’t matter his price. So long as he dosn’t disrupt the balance of your team, i.e. downgrading players to fit him in.

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  3. Don’t think McGrath will spent significant time in the midfield group as the Bombers are developing a solid and deep if not spectacular midfield group.

    Merrett spent more time on the inside last year with a drop in average possession count but increasing contested possessions and clearance work. David Myers is the important midfield player. With a full season from him this will allow the addition of Shiel to provide both inside and outside run. Goddard was generally the player behind the ball in 2018 with very little clearance work.

    Can see McGrath with run with/shut down roles on outside runners where he could possibly hurt on the rebound.

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