His Sordid past: Debuting when he was 18 he had a fine first season, and then exploded in 2014 before imploding in 2015.
Why he left home: Ruptured the posterior cruciate ligaments in both knees. (!)
Upon his return: He’s now 24, is listed as a midfielder for the Suns, and is priced at $280,200. That’s means he is priced to average just 51.5; over 50 points below his 2014 average.
He returned as: Both a discount premium and a breakout candidate. Had he not been hurt, few would have been surprised to see him raise his average even higher in 2015.
From him we expect: To be a high priced cow. More would be nice, and is not out of the question, but counting on more than a 90ish average up to his Round 9 Bye could be aggressive.
His Risk Rating*: His game time looks certain as long as he is healthy. Knee issues are not good issues and he blew out both ACLs. He seems ok at the moment. If he has knee problems again I would not expect them to be small. Yes, I said the same about O’Meara because knees are both important and fragile; especially previously injured ones. I’m thinking a 3 for probability and a 4 for severity, for a 12 game time risk. He did do both kness after all. I can see him averaging anywhere from 85 to 105, although the lower end of that feels more likely. There is no question of his talent. If we want a 95 I’d say a 2 probability and a 3 severity for a 6 performance risk. His combined risk score ends up at 17.
For that risk, the reward: An average of 90-100 for a mere $280,200 would be pretty sweet. He will of course make some money if he stays healthy. Below are some projected prices changes.
Compared to a cow costing $117,300
If he is averaging 95 he is going to go up $172,766 by his bye. His price will go up a lot slower after he gets back too. That’s not trivial cash; close to a normal cow, and he will be scoring more than a normal cow. Costing a lot more too of course. IF he actually averages 105 he’ll make more than a normal cow, which is pretty impressive, if improbable.
How welcome is he? Well, I’d at least let him in the door and give him a hug or two. That Round 9 Bye is a bit of a pain, since keeping him for a donut is not very appealing and his growth will mostly be done. If you think he can go for 105+ then he is a lot better option and deserves extra big hugs.
*If you don’t know what a risk rating is, it is all in the article Risk Management in Supercoach.
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