Prodigal Son – David Swallow

Written by Father Dougal on March 10 2017

His Sordid past: Debuting when he was 18 he had a fine first season, and then exploded in 2014 before imploding in 2015.

Year Matches Average
2011 21 79.5
2012 12 78.2
2013 18 79.6
2014 22 103.2
2015 6 85.8
2016

Why he left home: Ruptured the posterior cruciate ligaments in both knees. (!)

Upon his return: He’s now 24, is listed as a midfielder for the Suns, and is priced at $280,200. That’s means he is priced to average just 51.5; over 50 points below his 2014 average.

He returned as: Both a discount premium and a breakout candidate. Had he not been hurt, few would have been surprised to see him raise his average even higher in 2015.

From him we expect: To be a high priced cow. More would be nice, and is not out of the question, but counting on more than a 90ish average up to his Round 9 Bye could be aggressive.

His Risk Rating*: His game time looks certain as long as he is healthy. Knee issues are not good issues and he blew out both ACLs. He seems ok at the moment. If he has knee problems again I would not expect them to be small. Yes, I said the same about O’Meara because knees are both important and fragile; especially previously injured ones. I’m thinking a 3 for probability and a 4 for severity, for a 12 game time risk. He did do both kness after all. I can see him averaging anywhere from 85 to 105, although the lower end of that feels more likely.  There is no question of his talent. If we want a 95 I’d say a 2 probability and a 3 severity for a 6 performance risk. His combined risk score ends up at 17.

For that risk, the reward: An average of 90-100 for a mere $280,200 would be pretty sweet. He will of course make some money if he stays healthy.  Below are some projected prices changes.

 

Compared to a cow costing $117,300

If he is averaging 95 he is going to go up $172,766 by his bye. His price will go up a lot slower after he gets back too. That’s not trivial cash; close to a normal cow, and he will be scoring more than a normal cow. Costing a lot more too of course. IF he actually averages 105 he’ll make more than a normal cow, which is pretty impressive, if improbable.

How welcome is he? Well, I’d at least let him in the door and give him a hug or two. That Round 9 Bye is a bit of a pain, since keeping him for a donut is not very appealing and his growth will mostly be done. If you think he can go for 105+ then he is a lot better option and deserves extra big hugs.

 

*If you don’t know what a risk rating is, it is all in the article Risk Management in Supercoach.

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14 thoughts on “Prodigal Son – David Swallow”

  1. Thank u father. I’m passing on Swallow because I’m running with Beams and omeara as M5,M6. The triple up would give me 3 guys all returning from LTI. Is there any one out there thinking of all 3 I wonder.

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    1. I had all 4 (including Fyfe) up until this weekend, but now I’ve dropped Swallow.
      For it too work I think you would have to have a very deep midfield with solid coverage. In other woods SPP at M9, not M8.

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  2. Father Dougal if you could leave the alter wine and hamsters alone you could be Pope. These comparisons are real handy.

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  3. Now you got me thinking about him Father after I refused to put him on the radar, happily with Fyfe and O’Meara as my two injury comeback players. Now I need to see if it fits!. Gah. you’re too good at what you do.

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  4. No idea what these returning players are going to average.

    Libba came back after a year lay off and averaged 20 less than the last year he played.

    O’Meara averaged 97 and Swallow averaged 85 (injury cloud, 105 the year before). You really want 85 from swallow and 90 from O’Meara as a bare minimum before they start to get an okay-ish cash growth. Both possible if their bodies hold up.

    I feel like my final decision on these guys will have to be a coin flip.

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  5. I love the price rise comparison charts. Have you done any where we can just see the changes in price for different costing cash cows? Does that make sense? To be able to compare the $280, 000 to the $117,000 and what we expect them to score (obviously the million dollar question) is fascinating. It reminds us of the risk of mid-pricers!

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