His Sordid past: When uninjured, he is a super-premium. His 2012 season of 21 matches at an average of 122.9 is proof of real quality.
Why he left home: Knee tendonitis, leading to knee surgery. At the time his surgery was for a “mystery knee problem”.
Upon his return: He’s now 27, is listed as a midfielder for the Lions, and is priced at $432,500. That’s means he is priced to average 79.49. He is playing in the preseason and so far appears to be healthy. Oh, and they recently made him captain, which implies some confidence.
He returned as: He’s a fallen premium, based on his career. Based on his best season he’s a fallen Super-premium.
From him we expect: No less than 100, and up to 120. If he is actually healthy again the question is how far over 100 will he average.
His Risk Rating*: Well, his game time looks certain as long as he is healthy. Knee issues are not good issues though; wow knees sure lead to a lot of prodigal sons. His being captain feels like a vote of confidence. I say again as for others with knee issues, that if he has knee problems again I would not expect them to be small. I have read that the Lions are planning to “manage” his knees, which makes me worry that he’ll be rested a few times. I’m thinking a 3 for probability and a 4 for severity, for an 12 game time risk. I’d be shocked at less than 100 average unless Brisbane is flat wrong about his health, which would be a 1 and 1. But he has gone a lot higher in the past. I would say for every 5 points you want higher than 100, add 1 to both numbers.
|Target||Probability||Severity||Perf. Total||Risk score|
For that risk, the reward: Like anyone under priced, he’ll probably score more than what you pay for him, with some price upside is he does well enough. Below are some projected prices changes.
Compared to a cow costing $117,300
Now here’s something we don’t see often. In order to make significant money, he’d have to score well enough to be a season keeper! If he “only” scores in the 100-110 range, he’ll make some money, which is better than losing money. If he does not do well enough to hold a spot his big contribution will be points and not cash. Not that the cash wouldn’t be nice. His starting price is high enough that he’ll need to average about 84 to keep his price and he will gain close to nothing if he doesn’t at least approach 95.
How welcome is he? He has the potential to be a season keeper for $432,500. You have to ponder that at least a little while. Hard to ask for a bigger upside. If Brisbane does “manage” his playing time and health, that means some donuts, which isn’t great but isn’t a disaster. Every game he misses and is replaced by a backup scoring 60 he loses about 2.25 from his average. Not the end of the world if he misses one or two, gets bad at 3 or 4 or 5….Overall, he’s welcome, if you are feeling lucky.
*If you don’t know what a risk rating is, it is all in the article Risk Management in Supercoach.
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