Apparently there is a story about a second son who rips his dad off, goes and has fun with the money and comes home in disgrace only to be welcomed back by his dad who blows off his loyal and hardworking oldest son and makes a big fuss over the jerk-face second son. Then, the oldest son goes and makes out with an overweight lady and accidentally kills her, and ends up on the lamb, meaning on the run from the law, not anything nasty. I think I saw it on “Home and Away”.
Anyways, this is the first in a series where I take a look at players who left for a long time and have come back. It’s a really excellent idea which I plan to take full credit for even though Schwarzwalder is really the one who thought of it.
His Sordid past: He played all 22 matches in 2013 when only 19 at an average of 90.1 (from a starting price of only $115,900), and then all 22 games in 2014 at an average of 97.7.
Why he left home: Severed a patella tendon during an NEAFL practice match in early 2015. He played three games in the NEAFL late last year but succumbed to soreness that required further surgery.
Upon his return: He’s now 23, is listed as a midfielder for the Hawks, and is priced at $318,900. That’s means he is priced to average just 58.6; about 40 points below his 2014 average. He is playing in the pre-season and so far appears to be healthy.
He returned as: He isn’t a discount premium because he was never actually a premium, despite his obvious talent. Since he is 23 and has had two outstanding seasons to start he career, he’s a breakout candidate.
From him we expect: Well, to break out. From 90.1 to 97.7 to…..105? It’s possible he could average 110+ and move into super-premium range, but that’s not likely. JPK and Merrett managed to make a jump like that, but without a two year layoff. Most super-premiums have a year or two at 105ish before moving up again.
His Risk Rating*: Well, his game time looks certain as long as he is healthy. Knee issues are not good issues though. He seems ok at the moment. If he has knee problems again I would not expect them to be small. I’m thinking a 2 for probability and a 4 for severity, for an 8 game time risk. It is hard to imagine him going backwards from his last average of 97.7 if he stays healthy. There is no question of his talent. I think there is a decent change he won’t manage 105, but if he does fall short it will not be by a lot. So a 3 probability and a 2 severity for a 6 performance risk. His combined risk score ends up at 13.
For that risk, the reward: Well, an average of 90-105 for just $318,900 is nothing to sneeze at. He also will make some money if he stays healthy. Below are some projected prices changes.
Compared to a cow costing $117,300
If O’Meara manages 105 a week, he’ll make $202,580 by the start of his Rd13 Bye, for an investment of $318,900. A ‘cow’ costing $117,300 will make about the same over nine weeks or $225,813 at the start of the Rd13 Bye. The points difference certainly making up for the slower growth. But if O’Meara only manages a 97, he makes $38,574 less, while scoring a lot less. An off season, or a slow start, and he makes just $130,254 in time for the bye.
How welcome is he? He could make decent money and score decent points, but isn’t a Top10 prospect this season, so a trade will be needed on him at some point. But, he is a huge talent and appears to be in good health. If he can score enough points to make cow-ish money until his Rd13 Bye then he’ll have done all we can ask, returning both points and funds. He can be welcomed with open arms, his upside good enough to make his risk acceptable. But there is most certainly a risk in selecting a breakout candidate returning from a two year absence due to multiple knee surgeries.
*If you don’t know what a risk rating is, it is all in the article Risk Management in Supercoach.
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