Prodigal Son – Jarryd Roughead

Written by Father Dougal on March 14 2017

His Sordid past: He has been a Supercoach asset since 2011. The last three season he played were at just over a 95 average.

Year Matches Average
2005 16 54.5
2006 20 67.4
2007 20 62
2008 22 85.6
2009 19 79.4
2010 22 77.7
2011 11 101.5
2012 20 103.7
2013 22 98.5
2014 20 95.8
2015 20 96.4

Why he left home: Skin Cancer. Yikes. Glad he is now cancer free. Neither his illness or his immunotherapy treatment for it should have affected his ability to play.

Upon his return: He’s now 30, is listed as a forward for the Hawks, and is priced at $367,100. That’s means he is priced to average 67.47. He is playing in the pre-season and so far appears to be healthy. After his first pre-season match, he said “Towards the end I was cooked, but I guess you’re going to get that when you’ve had a bit of time off.” They recently made him captain, which implies some confidence.

He returned as: He’s a fallen premium, based on the last three seasons he played.

From him we expect: To keep up his 95-98 recent average.

His Risk Rating*: His game time looks certain unless something new comes along, and there is no reason to expect it will. I’m thinking a 1 for probability and a 1 for severity, just like every other player without known issues. Gives him a 1 game time risk. Performance wise, he is playing forward but also getting some time in the mids and rucking. He’ll probably end up doing whatever seems needed at the time. The biggest risk is his year off and being unable to train for a lot of it. I’m giving him a 3 probability of a 2 severity, for a 6 performance risk, and a total risk factor of 6.

For that risk, the reward: It’s hard to imagine him not scoring over what he is priced for, and making at least some cash for us along with points.

Compared to a cow costing $117,300

If he average 95, he will probably be a season keeper. If he does not he’ll make some coin that will make it easier to replace him, whenever we get around to it, maybe before his bye. We would be buying him for points not cash generation, but his price is so low he will almost certainly make something. His price is too high to be a stepping stone. If he has a lower than desired average he will still be one of the last forward to upgrade unless he has a seriously crap season.

How welcome is he? He has the potential to be a season keeper for $367,100. He would have to average under 73 to lose money by his bye, and that seems unlikely. If he has a poor year he might end up as F7 if things are going well. His lack of playing time risk really distinguishes him from all the players returning from serious injury. I think he should be welcomed back with open arms, and with the lack of good forward options I expect him in a lot of teams come the first bounce.

Should Prodigal Son Jarryd Roughead be welcomed into your team

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*If you don’t know what a risk rating is, it is all in the article Risk Management in Supercoach.

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17 thoughts on “Prodigal Son – Jarryd Roughead”

  1. He had been a lock all this time and after your review, I’m now not sure. Go figure!

    I think he will average around 90 and it would be unfair to expect higher. The other thing is I worry about a hammy or some other annoying, pesky little injury. It was in 2011 that he had the achilles injury, but since then has had 20+ games in the regular season.

    Maybe it’s just pre-season jitters!

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    1. If he averages about 90 he ends up being that value pick that doesn’t quite make it to premium level and needs to be traded eventually. You won’t really lose out to those who don’t start with him but at the same time you won’t gain anything either, so you have to ask yourself why am I picking a player who’s gonna break even?

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      1. For me the answer to that is forward line uncertainty. If he was a defender or midfielder i wouldn’t pick him but this year we have a lack of identifiable forward premiums. Roughy would be a good go-to in this situation regardless of price because hes been so consistent. The price just makes up for his year off and balances the risk.

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        1. That’s fair enough, I’m leaning towards a risky breakout in the fwd line myself, but can see the appeal in the safe option of Roughy.

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  2. I also had him locked in until I saw Father Dougal’s write-up. The pts & cash projections really bring to light the amount needed to hold him for the whole year. If he’s not a keeper then he’s a very expensive ‘stepping stone’. Rd1 selection (especially of rookies) is going to play such a huge role…….

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  3. I understand people’s concerns about Roughead not being a true premium, but you have to look at his competition in the forwards. Last year there were 19 players who averaged 90+ in the forwards – and 9 of those aren’t even eligible for forward selection this year.
    If Roughy gets 90ppg, you basically get a top 10 forward for 367K. That is an absolute bargain! Lock.

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    1. I’m not convinced the forwards are that bad this year. Reiwoldt, Dahl and Macrae all look like 100+ players. Then I’d expect at least 3 of JJK, Lids, Lynch, Gunston, Greene to go 95+ and there’s always big improvers in the fwd line, I’d bank on a couple of Billings, Petracca Heeney, Ryder, Wingard etc. to go 95+ as well.

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  4. Worth considering as well that the price projections are based on him scoring his average every week. That’s simply not going to happen. All we need from Rough is a purple patch of 3-4 weeks with scores over 100 and his price will skyrocket.

    I’d suggest that Rounds 6-9 would be the prime draw opportunity for that, with St Kilda, Melbourne, Brisbane and Collingwood – none of whom are particularly strong down back. Coincidentally, this is probably perfect time for Roughy himself, with enough time passed to blow out the cobwebs and build some confidence, but not so much that he hits a wall (probably in the week or two prior to his bye).

    If Roughy is struggling a little early on, and other players present as better options – all we need is for him to churn out a few decent weeks and he becomes a perfect example of buy low, sell high.

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    1. This is a good point, but you can say the same about the rookies you’re comparing him to, they’re also gonna have purple patches. I think FD’s just using a flat average because it’s easier to compare cash growth between rookies and mid pricers. Although, a 117k rookie averaging 70 is as big a LOCK as you can get, probably fairer to compare Roughy and other mid pricers to one of the weaker rookies averaging 50-60.

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      1. It is indeed very hard to do comparisons without using flat averages.

        I wrote last season about how recent scores have a high impact on prices and will probably write more about that soon, along with showing how players go up from different starting points and different averages.

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      2. Not criticising FD at all, absolutely love the time and effort put in to the write-up. It’s just important to note that when looking at a player’s ability to generate cash, it’s never going to be as steady as the statistics will present.

        I’d be more confident in Roughy stringing together a month of good scores than a rookie doing the same, especially a forward-eligible rookie. It’s not a hard and fast reson to pick Roughy over a rookie, just an extra consideration when looking at the risk factor of a mid-priced fallen premo.

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        1. No worries, didn’t take it that way. You are right that is is important how up and down someone is for price. I just have no come up with a way to show that in something like this. Maybe I should work on that over the offseason….

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          1. All good man, I haven’t the faintest idea how you could cover all the possible score permutations either. My point was more of an addendum to your comprehensive review – that Roughy is more likely than most rookies to see a big spike in value over a period of 3-4 weeks, and even if he has a relatively poor year, such a run of form can easily allow for a quick and cheap trade.

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            1. The problem with roughy having a good run of form raising his price is this – his run of form will need to be 100+ scores. If he is scoring tonnes then there is no reason to trade him out.

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    2. Good point It is certainly possible and maybe even likely. I wouldn’t want to count on it though. Added reason to have him, in addition to the points

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  5. All the talk about Roughead and others around his mark not being keepers is over done.
    Seriously after about round 3 or 4 most of us have given up on winning the 50k and are more concerned with winning our leagues, especially if there is money involved, so a midpricer who is going to play each week and score around 90 is invaluable.
    I’m sure anyone ending up with the likes of Tuohy, Beams and Roughead as D8, M8 and F8 is going to have a pretty strong team.

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  6. Great point, at the end of the year if Roughy is F8 then things are probably OK. Also what about job security? The risk with rookies!

    But above all else, what a line: “Depart with but scraps and scorn”.

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