His Sordid past: He has been a Supercoach asset since 2011. The last three season he played were at just over a 95 average.
Why he left home: Skin Cancer. Yikes. Glad he is now cancer free. Neither his illness or his immunotherapy treatment for it should have affected his ability to play.
Upon his return: He’s now 30, is listed as a forward for the Hawks, and is priced at $367,100. That’s means he is priced to average 67.47. He is playing in the pre-season and so far appears to be healthy. After his first pre-season match, he said “Towards the end I was cooked, but I guess you’re going to get that when you’ve had a bit of time off.” They recently made him captain, which implies some confidence.
He returned as: He’s a fallen premium, based on the last three seasons he played.
From him we expect: To keep up his 95-98 recent average.
His Risk Rating*: His game time looks certain unless something new comes along, and there is no reason to expect it will. I’m thinking a 1 for probability and a 1 for severity, just like every other player without known issues. Gives him a 1 game time risk. Performance wise, he is playing forward but also getting some time in the mids and rucking. He’ll probably end up doing whatever seems needed at the time. The biggest risk is his year off and being unable to train for a lot of it. I’m giving him a 3 probability of a 2 severity, for a 6 performance risk, and a total risk factor of 6.
For that risk, the reward: It’s hard to imagine him not scoring over what he is priced for, and making at least some cash for us along with points.
Compared to a cow costing $117,300
If he average 95, he will probably be a season keeper. If he does not he’ll make some coin that will make it easier to replace him, whenever we get around to it, maybe before his bye. We would be buying him for points not cash generation, but his price is so low he will almost certainly make something. His price is too high to be a stepping stone. If he has a lower than desired average he will still be one of the last forward to upgrade unless he has a seriously crap season.
How welcome is he? He has the potential to be a season keeper for $367,100. He would have to average under 73 to lose money by his bye, and that seems unlikely. If he has a poor year he might end up as F7 if things are going well. His lack of playing time risk really distinguishes him from all the players returning from serious injury. I think he should be welcomed back with open arms, and with the lack of good forward options I expect him in a lot of teams come the first bounce.
*If you don’t know what a risk rating is, it is all in the article Risk Management in Supercoach.
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