Punting Pt 1

Written by Motts on May 5 2011

Tough round to tip this week so I’ve broken my weekly multi into the 2 halves of the draw. First 4 games and my selections are:

Port Adelaide v Hawthorn – Port Adelaide +30 – 1.91

For some reason Port love Hawthorn. They’ve beaten them 3 out of the last 5 times and won their last encounter at Footy Park by 8 pts in R18 last year. They’re at home, their backs are to the wall and other than Dom Cassisi they have no significant injuries. On top of this, the Hawks are coming off the bye, Rioli’s out, Hodge is still carrying an achilles, and they’re are playing a couple of newbies in Puopolo and Smith. I reckon 30 points is very generous and I’ve grabbed it.

Western Bulldogs v Sydney – Either Side 1-39 or Draw – 1.24

I actually prefer Sydney in this match. The signs aren’t good for the Doggies: no Lake, no Higgins, and Cooney not playing his best. The Swans lost Jack this week but I don’t expect that will affect them all that much. The one thing in the Dogs’ favour is that they’ve won the last 4 a Manuka but never by more than 43 points. That says 1-39 tri-bet to me.

Geelong v North Melbourne – Geelong 25+ – 1.24

Geelong at the Cattery should go well but I think it’ll be closer than a lot of people think. In R14 last year they only got over the Hawks by 35 and this week they’re coming off the bye.  25+ is very achievable.Richmond v

Fremantle – Either Side 1-39 or Draw – 1.28

Freo is another team coming off a bye that is travelling and coming up against a Richmond team that has won its last 2 and 4 of their last 5 encounters with Freo. Tempted to take Richmond at the line (+9.5) but will go for the safety of a tri-bet instead.

Total – $3.76

You can then roll your winnings from that into my next multi. Watch this space.

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22 thoughts on “Punting Pt 1”

  1. I really like all the legs in this multi, Motts. I make my weekend multi’s with Sportsbet.com.au and they don’t seem to offer the tri-bet of either side 1-39/draw, which is frustrating, it seems to be a nice one for those close games. Thought the Power were good value last week, taking them at my own line of +49.9 points, which burned out miserably, and don’t know if I have enough faith in them to take em at a line again.

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  2. Drawn up a quick multi using the games you’ve gone with, I’d be punting on this:

    Hawthorn WIN $1.18
    Western Bulldogs WIN 1-39 $2.35
    Geelong WIN 25+ $1.27
    Richmond WIN 1-39 $2.95 (value pick at those odds)

    Paying $10.39

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  3. I also think this would be a well-educated cheeky punt:
    Fremantle/Fremantle/Richmond/Richmond Quarter by Quarter $23.00

    As a tigers supporter I’m aware of the reality that Richmond will always lose the first quarter, and have to peg back the margin the rest of the game to win. Good value to be had at $23, albeit requiring a fair bit of luck.

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  4. Yeah sorry Mottsy my man not feeling these ones. Think the hawks on the friday night will win….easy…

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  5. In Mottsy’s defense, the hawks are terrible in Adelaide and Port could do anything over there as we have seen in their games against the Crows and the Suns. However I think the Hawks are determined to lay the Adelaide cures to rest after their second half fadeout v Crows & Geelong.

    Freo will smash Richmond and the Dogs will towel up the Swans.

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  6. Why all the love for the Bulldogs?
    They are in the same boat as the Demons.
    Wins against Brisbane and Gold Coast.

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  7. I think your thinking is spot on Motts, execpt I like to be a little more decisive. Afterall, that’s where the money is.
    Hawks to win – altho, they lost to crows there in round 1, port have sunk even worse since then.
    Prefer Sydney, but without Jack makes it a bit more tough. They looked a bit lost in the last qtr against the blues, plus will have to recover from the heavy pitch.
    Geelong, hopefully they don’t play lazy.
    I prefer Tigers over freo. Richmond have always had the knack for beating freo (I think its the colours). They’ve got some form too, and freo may just be a little too confidant.

    It’s a tough round for tipping with only 2-3 certainties.

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