Punting R14, 2012

Written by Motts on June 28 2012

Picking all the favourites in the nine games this week will give you a paltry $4.68 return. Not good enough for Mottsy so lets look for some value.

Carlton v Hawthorn (MCG) – Carlton 1-24 – 4.70

Carlton have been competitive against some good teams of late (Geelong and WC) and I’d like to think that with their backs to the wall they’ll put up a good fight. Hawthorn hasn’t played a Top 8 side since R5 (Sydney) and haven’t beaten a Top 8 side since R3 (Adelaide). I know Carlton aren’t in the Top 8 – its an indication of how the Hawks go against good sides.

Collingwood v Freo (MCG) – Pies 1-39 – 2.40

Freo beat Richmond a few weeks ago at the G on a wet day like this one is forecast to be (shower or 2, 12). Obviously Collingwood are a much better team than the Tiges but the win would’ve given FURL’s men some confidence and they should be competitive.

Adelaide v Richmond (AAMI) – Adelaide -20.5 – 2.00

Richmond have looked pretty shabby since disposing of Hawthorn and showing grit to get over St Kilda. They lost to Freo at home and then only just got over the line against GWS. Adelaide will be stung by their loss to North last week and will be looking to avenge it within the safe confines of Footy Park.

WC v GC (Subi) – WC -72.5 – 2.00

Mostly sunny and 20 is the forecast. Unfortunately it’s all dark clouds for Gary and the boys though – they’re gonna get pumped.

Essendon v WB (ES) – Essendon 1-39 – 2.20

It was a good win over in Perth for the Dons last week but the trip back can take it out of you. The Dogs are a better team than the one that showed up to play Brisbane last week and will want to make amends. They will at least be competitive.

Sydney v GWS (ANZ) – Sydney -69.5 – 2.00

GWS will want to avenge their loss in the first game of the year but it won’t matter because Sydney are flying and should annhilate them by 10+ goals. If Melbourne can get ‘em by 13 goals, Sydney should have no problem whatsoever. I reckon the bodies of the GWS kids are tiring.

Geelong v Port (KP) – Geelong -52.5 – 2.00

Since winning 3 in a row against North, GC and Carlton, Port have had a couple of sizeable losses against the Hawks and Dogs. Geelong have been unconvincing of late but Scotty’s had a stern word to them and the massive advantage that Kardina Park pays them will see them home easily. Weather for Sunday: shower or 2, 12 in Melbourne so probably consistent rain and -4 in Geelong.

Brisbane v Melbourne (Gabba) – First Half Margin – Brisbane 13-24 – 4.60

Brisbane will be on a high after last week although Melbourne had a strong win as well (even if it was only over GWS). This bet is risky I know but its paying well and sometimes you just have to give it a go.

Saints v North (ES) – HT/FT Double – North/St Kilda – 6.80

Evidently my appetite for risk is growing as the weekend gets longer. Here’s my reasoning for this one: North were great last week and should burst out of the blocks while St Kilda coming off the bye could be a little sluggish. The Saints class will get them there in the end though.

Now I certainly wouldn’t recommend multi’ing these up but if you did and all you put on it was $1 you’d turn that big gold coin into (and I double checked these numbers) $12,420. Beats the hell out of $4.68!

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40 thoughts on “Punting R14, 2012”

  1. Just tried to put the bet on with SportingBet and got an error message saying that it exceeded their 2,501/1 limit. Cheap bastards!

    Took out the Carlton and Essendon legs which brought it back to something like 1,300/1.

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  2. Cracking write up Mottsy, have not had any luck punting for the last few weeks and that revised one looks as good as any, worth a pineapple if you ask me.

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  3. Although I may go the cats by over 100 against my boy, piss poor over the last few weeks and with most of our tall backs out jPod and Tommahawk will run rampant. At least Boak will get a look at his new ground if he makes the trip.

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  4. “…Carlton have been competitive against some good teams of late (Geelong and Hawthorn)…”

    We’ll assume that was an honest mistake. 😉

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  5. Just remembered Mitch Clarke is out for the Dees for the rest of the year. You might want to take Brisbane at the line instead. Who the hell is going to kick Melbourne’s goals? Jack Watts??

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  6. Mega bet:
    Hawthorn (Line (-19.5) @1.78)
    Collingwood (Line (-29.5) @1.58)
    Adelaide (Line (-16.5) @1.86)
    West Coast (Line (-50.5) @1.31)
    Essendon Over 24.5 Points (Straight @1.71)
    Sydney (Line (-50.5) @1.39)
    Geelong (Line (-45.5) @1.67)
    Brisbane (Line (-21.5) @1.71)
    North Melbourne (Line (29.5) @1.51)
    $10.00 @ 70.236

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  7. As Motts said, there is no value H2H so gotta go big and I like Yio’s format

    Hawthorn (Line (-23.5) @1.90)
    Collingwood (Line (-39.5) @1.90)
    Adelaide (Line (-17.5) @1.90)
    West Coast (Line (-70.5) @1.80)
    Essendon (Line (-30.5) @2.00)
    Sydney (Line (-67.5) @1.80)
    Geelong (Line (-44.5) @1.65)
    Brisbane (Line (-26.5) @1.85)
    North Melbourne (Line (20.5) @1.85)
    $10.00 @ 257.77

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  8. Ok absalutely agree with ya motts no point going for h2h theres bound to be 1 or 2 surprises this round so heres my value bet
    Hawks vrs Blues Blues over 15.5
    Crows vrs Tigers Either team under 15.5
    Eagles vrs Gold Coast Eagles over 60
    Lions vrs Demons Lions over 40
    Bombers vrs Bulldogs Bombers over 40
    Magpies vrs Dockers Magpies Over 40
    Cats vrs Power Cats over 60
    Saints vrs Kangas Either team under 15.5
    Swans vrs GWS over 60
    Paying $3176.87 ill put $5.00 on it for a return of $15,884.37
    Hows that for value

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  9. FWIW here’s my bets on tonight’s game:

    Qtr x Qtr Leaders – H/C/H/C – $3 @ $51
    First goalscorer – Buddy – $5 @ $8
    First score of the match – Carlton point – $5 @ $4
    Winner – Carlton @ 1 – 24 – $10 @ $4.70

    Wish me luck!

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  10. Heres another bet i just put on correct me if i im wrong Motts but i think its very similar to your bet up top only differnce is the line betting i dont really understand em so i avoid em. I dont think there would be much difference in the odds…
    Hawks vrs Blues Blues 1-24
    Magpies vrs Dockers Magpies 1-39
    Crows vrs Tigers Crows 1-39
    Eagles vrs Gold Coast Eagles over 60
    Bombers vrs Bulldogs Bombers 1-39
    Swans vrs GWS Swans over 60
    Cats vrs Power Cats over 60
    Lions vrs Demons H/Time margin Lions 13-24
    Saints vrs Kangas H/Time/F/Time Double Kangas/Saints
    Paying $9559,64 ive got $5.00 on it for a return of $47798,20

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  11. Hi Motts this might interest you a few weeks ago played
    golf with the part owner of the horse that came 2nd to BC

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  12. Played at Grange in Adelaide I’m off 5 and he was off about 30
    but he doesn’t get to play much and he said all the trainers know
    they can’t beat BC by the way is it possible to have a spot in your
    private league I wanted one this year but didn’t know how

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