Picking all the favourites in the nine games this week will give you a paltry $4.68 return. Not good enough for Mottsy so lets look for some value.
Carlton v Hawthorn (MCG) – Carlton 1-24 – 4.70
Carlton have been competitive against some good teams of late (Geelong and WC) and I’d like to think that with their backs to the wall they’ll put up a good fight. Hawthorn hasn’t played a Top 8 side since R5 (Sydney) and haven’t beaten a Top 8 side since R3 (Adelaide). I know Carlton aren’t in the Top 8 – its an indication of how the Hawks go against good sides.
Collingwood v Freo (MCG) – Pies 1-39 – 2.40
Freo beat Richmond a few weeks ago at the G on a wet day like this one is forecast to be (shower or 2, 12). Obviously Collingwood are a much better team than the Tiges but the win would’ve given FURL’s men some confidence and they should be competitive.
Adelaide v Richmond (AAMI) – Adelaide -20.5 – 2.00
Richmond have looked pretty shabby since disposing of Hawthorn and showing grit to get over St Kilda. They lost to Freo at home and then only just got over the line against GWS. Adelaide will be stung by their loss to North last week and will be looking to avenge it within the safe confines of Footy Park.
WC v GC (Subi) – WC -72.5 – 2.00
Mostly sunny and 20 is the forecast. Unfortunately it’s all dark clouds for Gary and the boys though – they’re gonna get pumped.
Essendon v WB (ES) – Essendon 1-39 – 2.20
It was a good win over in Perth for the Dons last week but the trip back can take it out of you. The Dogs are a better team than the one that showed up to play Brisbane last week and will want to make amends. They will at least be competitive.
Sydney v GWS (ANZ) – Sydney -69.5 – 2.00
GWS will want to avenge their loss in the first game of the year but it won’t matter because Sydney are flying and should annhilate them by 10+ goals. If Melbourne can get ‘em by 13 goals, Sydney should have no problem whatsoever. I reckon the bodies of the GWS kids are tiring.
Geelong v Port (KP) – Geelong -52.5 – 2.00
Since winning 3 in a row against North, GC and Carlton, Port have had a couple of sizeable losses against the Hawks and Dogs. Geelong have been unconvincing of late but Scotty’s had a stern word to them and the massive advantage that Kardina Park pays them will see them home easily. Weather for Sunday: shower or 2, 12 in Melbourne so probably consistent rain and -4 in Geelong.
Brisbane v Melbourne (Gabba) – First Half Margin – Brisbane 13-24 – 4.60
Brisbane will be on a high after last week although Melbourne had a strong win as well (even if it was only over GWS). This bet is risky I know but its paying well and sometimes you just have to give it a go.
Saints v North (ES) – HT/FT Double – North/St Kilda – 6.80
Evidently my appetite for risk is growing as the weekend gets longer. Here’s my reasoning for this one: North were great last week and should burst out of the blocks while St Kilda coming off the bye could be a little sluggish. The Saints class will get them there in the end though.
Now I certainly wouldn’t recommend multi’ing these up but if you did and all you put on it was $1 you’d turn that big gold coin into (and I double checked these numbers) $12,420. Beats the hell out of $4.68!