Scoring Anomalies – Round 8

Written by The Salamander on May 16 2019

By popular demand, I’ll start the week by taking a look at Josh Kelly. 25 disposals (13 contested, 64 percent DE, 402 metres gained, 6 score involvements), 5 clearances, and 9 tackles for 154 points. Laying 9 tackles is impressive, but I have to agree with what everyone has been saying all week: 154 seems unjustifiably high.

Moving on, Liam Ryan was certainly eye-catching on Saturday night, but he didn’t really set the world on fire from a statistical standpoint: 17 disposals (10 contested, 65 percent DE), 6 marks (3 contested), 3 tackles, and 3 clearances. At first glance, his 104 seem a bit high. Upon closer inspection, however, it was likely the 10 score involvements and 420 metres gained (high numbers for anyone, but even more so for a player with relatively few disposals) that really lifted his score. I’m becoming increasingly convinced that Champion Data weights these two stats quite heavily.

Meanwhile, in the Showdown, Tom Rockliff had 41 disposals (23 contested, 56 percent DE, 6 score involvements), 6 tackles, 10 clearances, and 12 inside-50s for just 122 points. Sure, his DE wasn’t great, and he did have 5 clangers, but I think Rockliff (and his owners) would rightfully be feeling a bit robbed at this point.

Rockliff’s score seems even worse when you consider that his teammate Scott Lycett racked up 104 points for 13 disposals (15 contested, 46 percent DE, 235 metres gained, 1 score involvement), 1 contested mark, 3 tackles, 17 hitouts (9 to advantage), and not much else. Impressively, he managed to rack up more contested possessions than he did disposals – providing a gentle reminder to the rest of us that a possession is not the same as a disposal. As an owner I’ll happily take the points, but I’m not entirely sure if he deserved them.

Finally, is it just me, or does 91 points seem a tad high for Dane Rampe’s 13 disposal (10 contested, 92 percent DE, 254 metres gained), 3 mark, 1 tackle, 1 score involvement, and 1 post-climbed game? Especially compared to Lloyd’s 83 for 23 disposals (3 contested, 87 percent DE, 551 metres gained), and comparable stats in most other categories? Rampe did have a lot more contested possessions, and more than twice as many intercepts (9 to 4), so perhaps that explains the gap. Either that or the post-climbing!



Did any scores seem off to you on the weekend? Let us know in the comments below!

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19 thoughts on “Scoring Anomalies – Round 8”

  1. Terrific Salamander, seems like we need stats of players with the highest contested possession rates.Where can we get them from?

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    1. You can rank players by ave. CPs on FootyWire. Will post a link here in an hour or so. You can look at previous season’s too!

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    2. Here’s the link:
      https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_rankings?year=2019&rt=LA&st=CP

      And here’s the Top10, upto and including Rd8 in 2019:
      # Player Team Ave. CPs
      1 Patrick Cripps, CAR: 18.88
      2 Ben Cunnington, NTH: 17.75
      3 Nathan Fyfe, FRE: 17.43
      4 Lachie Neale, BRL: 17.25
      5 Clayton Oliver, MEL: 17.00
      6 Travis Boak, PTA: 14.88
      7 Hugh Greenwood, ADE: 14.50
      8 David Mundy, FRE: 14.38
      9 Jacob Hopper, GWS: 14.25
      10 Tom Rockliff, PTA: 13.62

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  2. I believe a post climb would be graded on cm’s gained x time on goal post with additional points for making it past the padding
    Rampe could have done better

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  3. Re: J Kelly’s score – he looked a class above the rest and everything he did was gold. Not too much of an anomaly I don’t reckon

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    1. Agree.

      In my Elite Numbers article in the preseason I made note of him possessing one of or if not the most supercoach friendly game style and this was evident on the weekend. High tackle count which was the highest in the ground and is just outside the top 10 on avg. Majority of his disposals are by foot (16/25 on the weekend) and since 2018 he has averaged 15 kicks from 27 disposals. Whilst he doesn’t possess an extremely high contested possession rate it is still sufficient and having a CPR over 50 on the weekend and 2nd highest CP on the ground explains his potentially overstated score.

      Also it was the first time in a loss since mid 2016 that he has recorded a 120+.

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      1. Great stuff Adam. It’s just GWS and their persistent covertness that puts me off. Is he carrying an injury/niggle?! We’ll likely never know. He could miss a couple of games with no prior warning ⚠️
        It DOES MY HEAD IN 🙁

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        1. I had considered grabbing him after his bye and Macrae this week but looking at their upcoming fixture, his tendency to go large in wins, consistency, ceiling, low possibility of scoring below 90 (only 4 in his past 41) I’ve decided to grab him now as his scoring should potentially outweigh the potential injury risk. Will pair him with Hately this week as this should provide cover assuming Kelly misses eventually as well as a poor range of upcoming rookies and I don’t want to miss out on Hately as I’d hate for him to be a late in and miss grabbing him before his 1st price rise.

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          1. I wanted to do the same thing Adam but super frustratingly I fall $300 short. Will bring in Kelly nonetheless and hope that Hately isn’t an emergency this week so I can pick him up later. Would hate to miss his first price rise

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            1. Thanks. Looking forward to next week’s trades which will likely be:
              Out: W Drew, S Walsh
              In: rookie, J Macrae

              Can’t wait to roll out my midfield next round which will consist of:
              N Fyfe, L Neale, J Kelly, J Macrae, C Oliver, Z Merrett, R Sloane and C Constable.

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  4. Found this on a forum for the 2018 SC formula – but I believe it hasnt changed this year.
    Note this does not include all stats just what they’ve released.

    Stat Description Points Awarded/Deducted
    Effective kick 4 Points
    Ineffective kick 0 Points
    Clanger kick -4 Points
    Effective Handball 1.5 Points
    Ineffective handball 0 Points
    Handball clanger -4 Points
    Handball receive 1.5 Point
    Hardball get 4.5 Points
    Loose-ball get 4.5 Points
    Goal 8 Points
    Behind 1 Point
    Mark uncontested (maintaining possession) 2 Points
    Mark contested (maintaining possession) 6 Points
    Mark uncontested (from opposition) 4 Points
    Mark contested (from opposition) 8 Points
    Tackles 4 Points
    Free kick for 4 Points
    Free kick against -4 Points
    Hitout to Advantage 5 Points
    Gather from Hitout 2 Points

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    1. 55% DE and 7 Clangers really hurts his score, but finishing with 80 DT points but 45 SC still seems like a massive drop

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  5. How can we approach CD ?? I’d love to throw them one apparent anomaly per week and ask them to explain it…just so we can be informed better…not to bash them. After all, who are they here for ?
    Yep…dudes like us !!

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