Sneak Previews – Matthew Lobbe (Port)

Written by Schwarzwalder on February 29 2016

POSITION: RUCK

Starting Price: $389 500

SC Scoring History
2015 – 72 points per game from 17 games played
2014 – 101ppg (21)
2013 – 86ppg (19)
2012 – 71 (9)

 

Matthew Lobbe has always been second choice at Port. The Power’s first pick in the 2007 Draft played his first two seasons in the reserves. When not hampered by injury (2010 – hamstring, 2011 – shoulder, 2012 – hip), he’s been down the pecking order behind Lade, Brogan, Renouf, Redden and now Ryder. Only when injury struck the Power did Lobbe get a decent run at the Ruck position. If the stats tell us anything, it’s that Lobbe’s numbers have constantly increased when playing lone Ruckman for the Power.

Lobbe wasn’t considered SC-relevant until 2013. When Jarrad Redden succumbed to injury, Lobbe was the last man standing. In the last twelve games as #1 Ruck, his average jumped from 67 (first seven games) to 96.6ppg. The following season was a breakout for Lobbe. He took his game up a notch, playing 21 games at a 101 avg. Finishing the year ranked 4th in total hitouts and tackles in the entire League, Lobbe started the 2015 season as 4th most expensive Ruckman in SC ($544k). Paddy Ryder was traded to Port during Trade Week 2014…….and once again, Matthew Lobbe was second choice.

Average hitouts playing with Ryder: 25. Average hitouts without Ryder: 45. SC average with Ryder: 66.4ppg. SC average without Ryder: 90.75ppg. In the four games playing as lone Ruckman last season, Lobbe produced scores of 83,85,80 & 115. Not exactly dominant yet far better than the 66.4 avg while sharing ruck duties or his current starting price at a 72 avg.

With only two Rucks allowed on the SC field, it seems fairly unanimous amongst coaches that Goldy & Martin/Jacobs/Nic Nat/Sandi/Gawn are the leading choices. Lobbe seems a fairly safe bet as R2. Great job security and much better than his starting price suggests. The big fella also follows up hard on his own Ruck-work with 55% contested possessions over the last two years (good indicator for SC). If you’re wanting to save some cash and hope that one of the Elites drop in price early, then Lobbe may just be the best ‘stepping stone’ option………

 

ICYMI………..Our very own Thommo had a nice bit of analysis on Lobbe in his Port Team Review Thread……… In 2014, Lobbe had 31.7 hitouts per game, each worth 1 point and 8.9 hitouts to adv, each worth 3 points. This gave Lobbe 58.4 points per game from hitouts in 2014.

If you take those points away and instead award 5 points per hitout to adv ( the new system), he gets 44.5 points per game, a shortfall of 13.9 points from his 2014 score of 101 ie an average of 87 ish.

If you also look at his “around the ground” efforts in 2014, he was close to career high in most stats. The only stats he dropped in were disposals (10.5 compared to a high of 12.2 in 2011) and marks (2.0 versus 2.7 in 2013). If he can increase in those areas he may improve by 5-8 points. This still leaves him with an average score in the 90s.

*Did not play in NAB1 against Sydney
*Stats from NAB2 – Six disposals & 26 hitouts for 54 SC pts

 

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11 thoughts on “Sneak Previews – Matthew Lobbe (Port)”

  1. Lobbe’s a tough call. He’ll pump out some rubbish scores but you’d think he’s good for a 90 point average. Is that enough to grab him at that price?

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  2. Guys he’s a stepping stone not a keeper – we are only interested in his early scores and how much he’ll rise early. His first 7 matches are Saints, Crows, Dons, GWS, Cats, Tigers and Lions.

    Games rucking solo against each team since 2013:
    Saints: 150, 127
    Crows: 93, 105, 84, 83
    Dons*: 119, 93
    GWS: 91
    Geelong**: 80, 111, 105, 154
    Richmond: 58, 86 (but somehow scored 106 last season rucking with ryder)
    Brisbane: 72, 65

    Averaging his scores against each team would see Lobbe score 139, 91, 106, 91, 112 for the first 5 rounds. Assuming that he does lose roughly 10 points per game because of the ruck changes, hes still looking at 129, 81, 96, 81, 102 – for an average of 98. The next two rounds are when it gets worse – averages of just 72 and 69 before the ruck changes mean hes in for low scores of around 60ish.

    If you intend to get Lobbe have a plan! He will increase in value up to around 448k-485k over the first 5 weeks but then you will need to trade him out. Is that enough from a stepping stone? Personally I say no, but if you are waiting for Goldy to drop then the value may be twice as much.

    *Because of the Essendon situation, this history isnt particularly relevant, but he should still do well with no stand out ruck at the dons.
    **Introduction of Zac Smith may impact Lobbe’s numbers against geelong.

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  3. I’m more look8ng to run Stef/Gawn now. If i do run a midpricer it will be Zac Smith.

    But it was Lobbe’s first hit too. Better see what he does in a week or so.

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  4. I like “interesting Matthew Lobbe” on facebook and that’s about the only interest I have for him. I won’t be going with him in 2016.

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