This is my 5th (!) annual Strength of Schedule post. Once again I have reworked my methods, this time because I found actual team Supercoach score data to use! Hopefully I can keep that up in the future.
Every match there are 3300 supercoach points given out, divided between the players on both teams. Some team let up more than the average scores to their opponents, others let up more than the average to their opponent. The average is 1650 = 3300/2.
For each team, I took what percent of the average it allowed. A team that let up an average of 1700 points a match would have a rating of 1.030 because 1700/1650 is 1.03. (rounded) A team that allowed an average of 1600 points would have a rating of 0.970 because 1700/1650 is 0.970. (rounded) So, the more over 1 the easier a team is to play, and the farther below 1 the harder it is to play. Team by team difficulties below
To see how hard a schedule is, based on last years data, (which will of course not be 100% right) we look at the SC % allowed for a teams opponents. Below is the week to week, number before, during, and after the byes. (Right click to open larger in a new tab)
And now the totals, sorted in a few different ways. (Yay spreadsheets!)
But then the question is, so what? How can we use that data? The answer is the Growing Season chart below. For each week where there are price changes, it looks at the three weeks of fixtures that affect the price changes, and averages them so we know when the players have best and worst chances of going up in price. Obviously any player can have a high or low score at any time, but we can at least see when they are more likely to:
To make this easier to read, I have colored good weeks in green, and bad weeks in red. Dark means stronger effects.
The most important weeks for cow growth are the ones closer to harvesting time. Have really good score early does not help as much as having really good scores in the middle of their growth. Late good scores are nice, but means the growth comes late, and you either wait to cash in, which is bad, or cash in for less, which is also bad.
Example below. All the cows have an average of 60. Notice that the cows with bad early scores but good middle scores are worth more. Part of that is because the first two weeks only matter for 1 and 2 rounds of growth, but also because the most recent scores have the most effect on price
So, on to the team by teams!
Adelaide – It is nice of the Crows to have a growing season matching my example. Their first two rounds of growing are blah, followed by a good one and two amazing ones, then some more nice ones. If only they had cows this year.
Brisbane – Also a pretty nice growing season for a team with few cows. Dang.
Carlton – A team with Cows! Lots of Cows! Not an ideal growing season but still pretty good, and for those cows that end up going late, their season is not bad before their byes
Collingwood – Well, at least their R5 & R6 are neutral. Gets better later. Could be a lot worse
Essendon – Like this worse, the could be worse is right here, Blargh.
Fremantle – At least the dodgy R5-10 are all just a little bit bad. Hardly exciting, but not as bad as some other teams
Geelong – I am suddenly nervous about having three kittens in my team. At least things get better before the byes. No green until Round 10!
Gold Coast Suns – Well, I hope the Suns proto-stars make their money early, since things get hard for them after R7. Again, a team with cows but a not so exciting growing season
GWS Giants – Nice. Nice. Not thrilling, but nice.
Hawthorn – Fine little growing season from the Hawks. And they have from zero to two cows!
Melbourne – Not the best start, and just ok, then eventually ok. Kinda Meh. Still beats a lot of other teams
North Melbourne – Well, R5 & 6 aren’t that bad…..
Port Adelaide – Oh Bugger. I have three more cows from a team with red in Rounds 5 to 8. It not too red….
Richmond – Ick. A run of hard matches makes their prime growing season looking, well, less than prime. Rather Ick in fact.
StKilda – Double Bugger! It’s like all the teams with more than one cow have crap schedules. Ok, the saints can’t play themselves, but still!
Sydney Swans – A bad growing season that matters little ’cause no cygnets of note this year.
WCE – Not great, but at least get better R7. I wonder if forward cows are more sensitive to the opposition then other cows?
Western Bulldogs – Wow, this may be the best growing season I have ever seen. Seriously, wow. Even when it turns red it is just light red. Just look at that sweet deep green rounds 5-7! Makes me want a puppy. Maybe Libba can be a puppy? It just figure the teams with great growing seasons have no cows, and the teams with cows have poor growing seasons!
Well, at least with all the cowndidates have dodgy growing seasons, no point in swapping them around based on that. Not much at least. In the end the cow matters more than anything else. Other than the coach, who has to want to play them. I’m babbling now.
Thanks for reading!
Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom