SuperCoach Selection Strategy

Written by Motts on February 11 2011

I was more than a little impressed with catblitz’s comment this afternoon on selection strategy. Clearly he’s put more than a little thought into it. It deserved it’s own post. Make sure you’re sitting down before starting though – the first sentence is a doozy.

“Wilson $270,200 if not injured and plays regular games for wce which i believe he will if not injured he can ave around 70pts per week it actually cost you around $370,000 for a player who scores you 70 points per a game so in 10 weeks time if he doesnt get injured i will make $100k, while some else could buy Enright with that money it will cost 478k and he will make 98pts a week so each istand to lose 28pts not that much that 478k i spent for enright wont add value to my team because ill probably keep enright for the year if i choose him for that price, were as save myself 276.5k and gain 100k so i stand to make 376k and the cost for it is 28pts x 10rds so 280pts, but now i have a player worth 370k and i saved 276.5k (477.5-270.2) so i essence i now have 370k+276.5= 646.5k to spend and in fact at the same time ill have a rookie worth 100k who has increase 230-240k or something i now have so i sell both players and i now have 2 supertars to buy with 886.5k and hopefully i find a bargain or two and i buy 2 players for 886.5k who are worth more than 900k.

So lose 280pts for the first two rounds but when it comes to round 10 i now have more money to buy superstars, if had enright from the start im missing out on 646.5k that i could spend at rd 10, i make a 276.5k increase in value it costs me 280pts but 276.5k, if make that much money on all your cash cows you will have superstars in no time. Duncan 282k, Dangerfield 340k, Knights 237k, Miller 209k Petrie 216k are all cash cows so you think or them in the same way so if i went with wilson over enright for example i save 276.5k, if go with Duncan instead of franklin for example 522k-282k=240k i save 240k, if by rd 10 duncan was able to play 8 games out of 10 for geelong (no garuntees but it is possible and with the 2 weeks he doesnt play i put my rookies which sit on the bench in for those two round) in those 8 round he may ave 75-80 seeing as he plays in the midfield even though you pick him in the forward line in sc that is very possible) and the price for a player with an ave of around 75-80 is 400-410k so again i have gained 240k + Duncan has increased in value by 118k so i now have 400k+240k=660k to spend on superstars. so wilson 370k in def doesnโ€™t count in my calculation, Duncan 400k, Dangerfield 440k (ave of 84-85 i hope) knights 440k by rd 14 (ave 84-85 i hope) Miller by rd 12 390k (ave of 73 i hope) Petrie by round 14 440k (ave 84-85 i hope).

plus the increase of value of the bench rookies and in the forward line i have maybe $2.7 million to spend that amount included the rookie prices i have Goodes and Riewoldt already so i need 5 superstars and with $2.7 i can buy 6 forwards on top of the two stars i alreadty have at an ave price of $450k so by round 14 i have already got Goodes, N Riewoldt, Franklin, J Riewoldt, O Keefe, J Brown, Pavlich, Waite and 1 decent forward on my bench. If you buy many cash cows and they produce goo milk your forward line could look like this by rd 14, and in defence already have Goddard, Gibbs, Connors with cash cows Otten and wilson and 5 rookies by round 14 if they all play i have Otten 360k-370k (ave 75) Wislon 370k (ave 75) 5 rookies at 260k each I have 2,050,000 to spend and with that money i can buy 4 or 5 defenders depending on whether i can pick up some bargains.

so by rd 14-15 i could have a team full of superstars but in doing so i must sacrifice having a team with a fair number of gains at the start to do so, and with players like petrie, otten, knights, dangerfield, duncan etc they may just play really well and i dont have to even sell them off. As for players such as Connors 416k, Corey 427k, Anthony 363k and even Hayes at 503k all can produce much higher than there prices suggest Connors at 416k that is only expecting him to score 80pts he is capable of 90-100 no probs, corey only expecting 83pts for that price can easily score 105pts, Anthony 363k expecting him to score 69pts to make his price worthwhile he can score 90-100 as well so my theory is fill your team with cash cows and rookies and potential superstars and only have your must have superstars such as Goddard, Gibbs, Swan, Hodge, Montaga, Sandlilands, Goodes and Riewoldt. So only 8 superstars there you could put in 10 or 11 but your stuffed when 1 breaks down injured.”

0
0


Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom

36 thoughts on “SuperCoach Selection Strategy”

  1. Well, after reading the ‘doozy’ of a first sentence 18 times, I can’t help but agree with Catblitz’s strategy.

    Although i try not to make it that confusing.

    0

    0
  2. The only problem I have with it is the amount of trades youll have to use. If you start as prem/ rook strat, there’s not too many people you have to upgrade to get to 22 prems..

    0

    0
  3. I tried the cash cow approach last year, but found out by the time they matured I ran out of trades due to chasing $$$ and not realizing how many trades you need to cover for injuries throughout the year.

    0

    0
  4. So, in choosing Wilson over Enright, you will be saving 276.5k. So then you will be leaving that dosh in the bank? So that you can spend it later on to upgrade. Have I got that right?

    Not got much time, but let me get my spanner…

    Risk and reward style, nothing wrong with that, but I know from experience, as probably do many that too many cash cows, there’s bound to be a few that don’t work.

    And that’s not mentioning the point difference. Sure, 1 c/cow getting 25-30 points a round less than a good one is ok, but imagine that times 10. Now you’re looking at racking up 250-300 points per round less than your opposition. By round 12, you are going to have to fly home.

    Then there’s limit of 2 trades per week, untold injuries, byes etc. And an injury to 1 of the 5 premiums you get at the start will spell DISASTER.

    Anyway, there a few of my thoughts. Would be interested to see how you get on.

    0

    0
  5. Thanks Motts – got that headache back. Didn’t you do an editing module in that MBA?
    My two cents worth on this strategy is being able to pick the right mid-pricers that will appreciate enough to enable you to premium upgrade. There’s alot of assumptions here that players within this range will improve 25-30 ppg whereas if you look at history, its the rookies and odd injury comebacks benefitting from CD discounts that improve the most. For me, to expect the level of ppg improvement in the player examples used in Cat’s strategy above is highly problematic.

    0

    0
  6. If you work from the Enright/Wilson example…I start with Enright and either Otten/Heppell instead of Wilson/Heppell. If Heppell/Otten average the same as Wilson (which is what you would likely expect) then I have to make the same upgrade from the rookie to a star and I don’t have to upgrade to Enright because I started with him (instead of Wilson, plus I am scoring 28 more points/round). I now have 280 more points and I only have to upgrade 1 player. In this way I am upgrading one player instead of two. Admittedly, this is all about picking the right rookies/very cheap options, but if you can, then the mid-price options use too many trades which are unnecessary.

    Also, assuming that you have to catch up the 280 points from Enright that he has outscored Wilson by in the first 10 weeks. You only have 12 weeks to do this (you lose 2 weeks for byes) so you have to get an extra 23 points/round to just break even. That is, find a player who has averaged 121 points/round and has also dropped enough in value to acquire for Wilson…and that is to break even with the scenario of starting with Wilson…

    Overall, I think that there is definitely merit in starting with a number of mid-priced players but only those who are supremely under-valued (which is almost exclusively through an injury interrupted season. Read: Petrie, Knights, etc) and have the chance of rising 20 ppg at least.

    Assuming that you can fit in 14 superstars (easily do able in the premiums/rookie strategy) you only have to find a combination of 8 players who are either rookies or severely under-valued to upgrade. So, for example, Otten, Knights, Petrie, 1 back rookie, two mids and two forwards, will need to be upgraded by the end of the year. Plus, you are not playing for 10 weeks with, say, 5 players each who are scoring 28 ppg less than a premium. That is 140 more ppr and 700 points overall. You are also using the same logic on Otten, Knights and Petrie (that they will play and increase their average and could even become keepers) that you are with Wilson.

    0

    0
  7. Great article, gives you yet another strategy to think about.
    I filled my team with cash cows last year and it failed (Robinson, Dangerfield, Ziebell etc). It’s a big risk trying to pick the right ones but it sure does pay off when you pick them right!
    This year I’ve gone the Guns ‘n Roses strategy. 14 premiums, Jolly and 7 Rookies. What I like about this is there is far less trades to be used, if all goes well (highly unlikely) I will only have to use 14 trades to have team full of premiums…. and Jolly. Another bonus is all the money you get from the rooks.

    0

    0
  8. Using the cash cow strategy does that bring Jake (the push-up) King into the frame? He is priced in the 60’s; His last 7 games last year averaged over 80; and named captian of the kids in the NAB Cup. What do you guys think?

    0

    0
  9. Let’s break it down though. You could have Wilson and Duncan

    270k + 281k, 550k in total.

    Alternatively, you could pick up Enright and Mzungu for just a little more (580k)

    First point is that you can’t look at any player in a bubble- when you talk about cash saved from one player, you have to talk about where you’re goin to use it.

    Next, the big assumption here is that you’re picking up midpricers that will improve. Which as history proves, is a very hit and miss operation. But for the sake of this, let’s say that they both increase by 20.

    So, based on a 20 point increase, both players are looking at about an average of 75, and in 10 weeks will net you 1,500 points while each increases by $50k. (100k in total)

    Next we take Enright and Mzungu. Enright averages 100, drops in salary a little- but is keeper, so that salary loss doesn’t come into things as you’re not spending a trade on him.

    Now, to keep things level, let’s assume Mzungu averages 50. So both teams score 1500 over the same period, and increases his salary by 105k

    So what we’re seeing here is that it’s roughly level. However, history shows us two particular things.

    Firstly, picking midpricers that live up to the pre-season hype and improve by 20ppg is pretty difficult. Only 35 players in the whole competition that weren’t rookies managed to do it. And this counts the Hodges of the world that were hardly mid-pricers.

    Last year only two mid-pricers managed to improve their average by 40, so to base your season on the idea of Wilson, Duncan, Dangerfield, Knights, Miller and Petrie all reproducing this feat- is a dangerous assumption to make. Run the numbers again with 20ppg increase and see how it comes out. When you do that, you also realise that it’s very rare for a mid-pricer to be called a cashcow when they only make you 50k

    next, rather that the 25ppg increase that Mzungu scored in the above example, the same number of rookies (well, 40) increased by 40 points last year, which would have Mzungu averaging 65ppg, swinging the points total out to a 150 different with an extra $50k to spend over 10 rounds.

    I guess the point I was trying to make with my article is that while the mid-price stategy isn’t dead, but if you’re looking to snag the 14 of the 35 players (out of 500) in order to suceed, you’re setting yourself a near impossible task.

    And for the record, scoring this years Malceski has got to be on the radar for every coach, regardless of your strategy- but remember, they are very few in number.

    0

    0
  10. didn’t a girl win this last season? surely she didn’t think this in depth haha. fml!

    also on a lighter note, i got offered $250 to chuck on the melbourne demons mascot outfit at our local footy club on monday while the team is down. ut have to go to melbourne so im shattered. would of been cool as to do it, plus the money.

    0

    0
  11. Here is another one. Petrie or Tippet as the Forward/Ruck DPP playing as F6 interchanging with the R 1/2 that has the bye?

    0

    0
  12. does anyone know how brett deledio went in the first round of the nab cup ??
    and if he is worth the price, how he will cope with another forward tag ??

    0

    0

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *