Don Cottagers, champion bloke that he is, has taken a look at all the Free Agent/trade movements of the last ‘week’ and brings us this enormous piece of analysis on every trade that was completed. Make yourself a cuppa (or crack a coldie) pull up a chair and feast your eyes on this. Thanks Don!!
I’ve split the information into two categories, simply being those movements that I don’t see as SC relevant and those that I do.
After each player, I have written a small part about the club that they have left, as player movement can be relevant on two fronts: the new club/role that the player obtains, and the potential gap that they have left in their previous side’s best team.
Eddie Betts – Adelaide: One of the elite small forwards in the competition has moved to the Crows, and while it is a good get for them, it is not overly SC relevant. He is underpriced, having averaged 67 last season and 80+ in the three seasons prior to that, but it is not enough to make him a good cash cow, or turn him into a keeper.
* As far as the Blues small forwards go, I also don’t believe that his movement will positively affect them. Garlett has never been a SC scorer and Yarran only scores well off a HBF, so if anything, Betts leaving may return him to the forward line and ruin his scoring altogether.
James Podsiadly – Adelaide: He had one year of SC relevance, and that was the year he was a mature aged rookie, who went on to average 91 and play 17 games. Now 32, jPod is well past his prime and is there really as an insurance policy until the Crows can get their key forwards up and going again.
* Unlike Betts, this does potentially leave a nice gap at the Cattery. Geelong should continue to be a good team in 2014 and they have already stated what they want their big men to be next season: McIntosh as the number 1 ruck, Dawson Simpson his back-up/third tall forward – with the other key bigs being Hawkins, Vardy and Kersten. McIntosh and Kersten should be very heavily on your 2014 radar.
Trent West – Brisbane: West has never been SC relevant and he will be playing behind the Berger. His SC irrelevance will continue next year.
* See what I mentioned after jPod re the Cats rucks/key forwards.
Sam Docherty – Carlton: Docherty is a great get for the Blues and their fans should be stoked. That being said, the SC community should be largely indifferent. After being quite hyped in the 2013 preseason, Docherty managed 13 games and an average of 52. Yes, that was affected by five green and one red vest, but he is still young and likely to cop a vest or two with the Blues next year. It’s highly likely that his average will lift, possibly by as much as 20ppg, but it won’t be enough to negate his lower-mid-pricer starting value.
* There are holes everywhere in Brisbane; so, at this stage, I’m not sure that speculating on what their 2014 structure will be is particularly productive. Monitor what they are doing in the preseason and enjoy the fact that at least a couple of cubs should put their hands up as they will be forced to play some of them from the start.
Andrejs Everitt – Carlton: Part of the Buddy cull by the Swans, Everitt is a mildly interesting, but entirely SC irrelevant, collect for the Blues.
* He did play 17 times for the Swans last season, but all of their new SC relevance comes in the form of one L Franklin.
Taylor Adams – Collingwood: As a fan of a team other than Collingwood, I have been bred to hate Collingwood and I do. That being said, they are an amazing football club. What they have managed to do over trade week has been astounding. How they got GWS to give up Adams in a straight swap for Shaw I’ll never know. They made no secret of the fact they wanted Heater out and Adams, by all accounts, is a special kid. They give up a half-back-man entering his final AFL contract in a straight swap for a ten-year midfielder who is every chance to take the captaincy after Maxwell and Pendlebury. Staggering. Two draft picks in the top-10 is amazing too. Anyway, on to Adams. He has played 31 games in the first two years for GWS and has averaged 74 and 76 and has been one of their shinning lights. One SC red flag though, is that in both seasons he has averaged more in DT than SC. That says that he either plays too outside, or doesn’t have good enough disposal efficiency, or both. Only the single SC ton in those games in also a slight worry. He is a kid, but you would’ve expected a bit more from his SC at this stage. The upside on him is huge and he won’t get any attention from the opposition when he lines up alongside Pendlebury, Swan, Ball, Sidebottom and Co., but I don’t think that he will become elite and, priced in the mid-70s, he really needs to lift his average above 100 to be looked at.
* His departure at the Giants will likely help somebody, but it’s a bit early to tell who. Hopefully Toby Greene can get his midfield time and bounce back to his stellar rookie year form.
Jesse White – Collingwood: They tried the Q-Stick and it didn’t work, so enter Jesse White. He’s 80 games into his AFL career, entering his seventh season, will be 26 and is a key forward who can push up and play on a wing. He sounds like a useful SC option, but he isn’t. Only the four SC tons in his life and his career year in 2013 netted an average of 67. There will be many better options.
* See Everitt, A.
Scott Gumbleton – Fremantle: Did you know that he didn’t win a single one-on-one marking contest in 2013? I know that he only played seven games but still, that’s pretty poor for a bloke near 200cms who has been in the AFL system since 2007. I’m struggling to think that he will be the answer to the Dockers forward line issues and he certainly won’t be the savior of your SC forward line. Pass.
* Long-term it benefits Joe Daniher, but not enough to help him become relevant next season.
Josh Hunt – GWS: Big body coming from a winning culture is a great get for the Giants, even if he only plays one season. It’s entirely SC irrelevant though.
* No major loss for the Cats and won’t open up more scoring opportunities there.
Bernie Vince – Melbourne: He is a good get for the Dees to help breed a better midfield group, but he doesn’t hold much SC interest.
* His role in the Crows wasn’t netting big SC scores so his leaving shouldn’t help anyone too much.
Nick Dal Santo – North Melbourne: Nicky Dal doesn’t get the SC credit he deserves. He averaged 97 last year, but prior to that he averaged 101.8 or above for eight straight years. In that time he averaged 112.4, 115.7, 115.8, 117.2, 119.3 and 123.9. Six of eight years averaging over 112 is amazing and deserves acknowledgement. That and he has missed only three games in ten years. 217 of a possible 220 games is pretty damn good. Still, he will be 30 next year and is past his best, so he isn’t irrelevant for the purposes of your 2014 SC side.
* He does leave a hole in the Saints midfield, so monitor them during the preseason to see who is filling it, how they score and hopefully that they are named Savage, Shane – See later on.
Shaun Hampson – Richmond: I’ll resist the urge to make a Megan Gale related comment to his recruitment, and just mention that I think that he is actually a decent get for them under the new interchange rotation cap. He can provide a target up forward, allow Vickery to stay in the forward line with Jack and will give Maric some much needed help with the ruck load. That said, pass on him in SC.
* His departure clears up the logjam slightly at Carlton, but since he didn’t play after round 7 you know what his departure means for the Blues already.
Josh Bruce – St Kilda: Wow, what an offseason for the Saints. Bruce helps on the field, but not in the world of SC so pass.
* Not a SC friendly role, so don’t bother with finding his GWS replacement either.
Luke Delaney – St Kilda: They really wanted him and, credit to them, they got him for next to nothing. That said, he is in the same boat as Bruce.
* Again, see Bruce.
Elliot Yeo – West Coast: The last of the “Mamma’s Boys Five”, Yeo wanted the Eagles, the Eagles wanted Yeo and it worked out for them both. That being said, he is yet to show a tendency to score well in SC so he is a pass.
* Part of many holes at Brisbane, so monitor which player (likely a kid) gets his spot.
Stewart Crameri – Western Bulldogs: He is a great get for the Dogs forward line, but not for your SC forward line.
* As with Gumby, his departure helps Joe Daniher long term, but not enough to get him in 2014.
Sam Darley – Western Bulldogs: Another GWS kid on the move, but will likely be priced a little too awkwardly to be in your SC back line next year.
* Barely played at the Giants, so doesn’t leave a significant hole.
Relevant (or at least potentially relevant)
Jackson Paine – Brisbane: Paine turns 21 mid way through next season and will come cheap. The ex-Pie has only managed 6 AFL games, and none in 2013. The Lions exodus means that lots of kids will have to play, because most of the 2010 and 2011 draftees just left the club. He probably won’t score too highly, but if he is priced down with the kids and looks like he will have a spot in the 21, then he may be worth a look as a slightly older key forward prospect. In case you are wondering how he went in the VFL this season, check out: http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/116125/Jackson-PAINE
* He doesn’t open up anything from the Pies end because, like I mentioned, he wasn’t playing for them.
Dale Thomas – Carlton: This could be a super get for the Blues and as good a get in SC. We are only two years removed from Ross Lyon saying that Daisy was possibly the best player in the AFL. In the fantasy sports community we may hate Rossy, but everybody respects his opinions on the game of AFL. If his ankles hold up through the preseason and he keeps his forward eligibility, then jump on him straight away! Onto the numbers: In 2011 he averaged 109.3, and he averaged 94 and 96 in the two seasons bookending that one. This year? He only averaged 79.6, thanks to a green vest, zero preparation and injury issues. Want an added kicker? He should get a discount as he only played five games this year. I repeat, his fitness is the key, but if he gets through the preseason, then you are looking at a forward line keeper for a price of around 75. He is back with a coach he loves and he is there to play in the Blues engine room. I’m tipping a 100+ average and, if he gets the preseason that he needs, you would have to be crazy (or a bitter Pies fan) to pass on him.
* It’s hard to know if his departure will have much of an impact on the Pies SC scoring as he played so little this season. My tip is it won’t do much. They guys who played in the Pies midfield in 2013 will continue there in 2014.
Patrick Karnezkis – Collingwood: It really pains me to put him as relevant as he burnt me this year, but he has to be looked at. The Pies said this week that they see him being able to play in their midfield and that’s what we wanted him to do at the Lions. He only managed three games this year and one of them produced a green vest induced 8, so he will likely get a discount on his already low average of 47. If he managed to crack the Pies side and keeps his forward eligibility he has to be looked at.
* He wasn’t playing at the Lions, so his departure helps nobody.
Kurt Aylett – Essendon: I’m putting him in the relevant category, not necessarily because he is, but because he could be. If he is somehow able to crack the Bombers side, then you are looking at a rookie priced, B/M DPP, who will be entering his third season in the AFL system and turns 22 early in the season. That essentially spells mature-aged rookie with DPP status, so while I think that he will very much struggle to crack into the side, if it looks like he will in the preseason then I’ll probably jump on him.
* Wasn’t playing at GWS so doesn’t leave any hole.
Paul Chapman – Essendon: With the kind of bloke Chappy is and everything that he has put into the Cats era on dominance, I think that he will be more than slightly upset to have not been offered the chance to finish at Geelong. He will therefore carry a chip on his shoulder into 2014 and, as an Essendon fan, I love the idea of an unhappy-Chappy coming to the club. Anybody who watched the Port/Cats Semi Final and saw Chapman collect 20 disposals, 4 goals 2 and 136 SC points would be nuts to suggest that he is past it. In fact, he played six full games in 2013 and five of them were 101, 113, 114, 120 and 136. In the last nine SC seasons he has averaged above 95 in all of them, above 100 in six and above 110 in three. He is an elite footballer and an elite SC scorer. Now the issues are twofold. Firstly, he is 32 next season. Secondly, he has always had dodgy soft-tissue and this year that led to a 17 week calf injury! Essendon’s already stated that they want him playing the same high-half-forward/midfield role that he has been so successful in at Geelong, so his scoring potential is the same. It all comes down to the question the Clint Eastwood so famously asked in 1971 (admittedly not about Chappy’s soft-tissue injuries, but it could’ve been): So you have to ask yourself: “Do I feel lucky?” Well, do ya, punk?
* It is sort of the same situation he as it is with Daisy and Collingwood. He does leave a hole, but since he spent so much of this season injured, we should already know how Geelong plans to fill it. Specifically, S Johnson, Stokes and Christensen.
Shaun Edwards – Essendon: He is close to the same situation as Aylett. I don’t think that he will be 2014 SC relevant, but since he only played two 2013 games and averaged 40, he should be priced around the rookies and he has back eligibility. So, exactly the same as Aylett, I don’t expect him to be a regular fixture next year, but if he is then he must be considered and he is therefore at least potentially relevant.
* Same as Aylett.
Colin Sylvia – Fremantle: I don’t want to put him here but you have to look at him simply because he gets to play on the wide expanses in Perth and has previously averaged close to 100. He has M/F DPP that he should keep next season and if Ross can change his attitude then he is worth a look, but I think most would struggle with the notion of Sylvia lining up in their 2014 SC side.
* The kind of unaccountable roaming player that he was at the Dees shouldn’t exist under Paul Roos as he simply won’t allow it.
Shane Mumford – GWS: Mummy had one season as a SC premium and has teased us ever since. Three of the last four seasons he has averaged between 90 and 92, while the other one was a 112. Whether he rejoins the rucking elite will depend a lot on Giles. Sharing the ruck duties with Mike Pyke killed his elite ruck status and, if the Giants think that they can run with two ruckman despite the new interchange rotation cap in 2014, then he will probably struggle to average around the 110 mark that he will need to be one of the two elite ruckman that you want in your SC side. Keep an eye on the Giants and Giles as that will determine whether you consider the sausage eating machine.
* I can’t believe that I’m writing this, but Pyke has to be considered now. I think the smart money is on the Swans running Pyke as the lone ruckman and using Tippett as his backup, something that they can now afford to do with the inclusion of Buddy. He played every game last year, knocked up eight 100s and was one of the best contested marks in the game. If he can lift his 100s to around 15 and eliminate the five sub-70 games then he could lift that 86 average by the 20ppg that he needs to to become elite. Potentially, an elite Canadian SC footballer, whodathunkit?
Heath Shaw – GWS: Eight consecutive years of averaging between 90 and 106 at the Pies shows his scoring potential. The question is: what role does he play at the Giants? If he goes to the backline, then he will likely cop a forward tag each week and with only kids around him, he won’t get enough help to score well. If he goes into the guts, then he may actually score quite well. He will definitely have to be monitored in the preseason. Also, he does get frustrated and playing in a poor side, those brain fades will likely continue his trend of not reaching the 20-game mark, something that he has ‘achieved’ in the last six seasons running.
* There is room for a new half-back flanker to effectively quarter back the Pies and it could be worth seeing who gets that role next season as when Neon Leon Davis got it in 2011 he turned it into a 100 average so watch this space.
Ben McEvoy – Hawthorn: I have zero clue how the Hawks talked the Saints into this trade, but good on them. With Bailey retiring and Buddy leaving, McEvoy is a super get for the Hawks. Hale plays the number two ruck still, Roughy stays home with Gunston as the two key forwards and McEvoy runs around as the number one ruck in an elite side. He turns 25 next season and should be entering his prime. He has already averaged over 100 twice and will come at an average of 93 for next season. He isn’t a particularly good traditional ruckman, but is good around the ground and a good intercept mark. It probably goes one of two ways for him at Hawthorn. Either all of their talent dilutes his scoring potential and he sits around where he is, or he hits his prime in a top side and becomes the highest scoring ruck in the game. I don’t think the latter is out of the question at all and he should definitely be monitored in the preseason.
* He leaves a huge hole at Seaford and look at the Billy Longer write-up below for who that helps.
Dom Tyson – Melbourne: Giving Buddy a contract that doesn’t end for a decade is a bold move, but I think Melbourne trading pick two for Tyson trumps it. They’d better hope it works or this will go down along the same lines as taking Tambling over Buddy. From a SC point of view, Tyson must be considered. He is an elite talent, coming off a season where he played three games – one in the green vest – and averaged 44. He could therefore be priced down around the new draftees and he will get all the opportunities in the world at the Dees. See how he goes in the preseason and how he is priced.
* Wasn’t playing in GWS so doesn’t leave a hole.
Viv Michie – Melbourne: The lowest profile of the Melbourne recruits, but he is probably the most SC relevant. He played just over half a game this year and scored 40, so expect him priced around the kids. Surely Melbourne got him for a reason and as a 22 year old midfielder, he is essentially a mature aged rookie. As such, if they are giving him a run and he is avoiding the vest, then you must consider him.
* He wasn’t playing at Fremantle so doesn’t leave a hole.
Matt White – Port Adelaide: White is intriguing as he comes to the Power having been a green vest favourite at the Tigers. He averaged 80.5 in his non-vest game this season and, priced at 56 he has to be looked at. If he can lift that 80.5 to 86 (which you would think is doable) then you are effectively looking at a 30ppg increase, which translates to good cash cow numbers. He will be awkwardly priced, so you would have to be very confident that he will avoid the vest each game, but he is worth a preseason look as a cash cow. Personally, he doesn’t fit into the structure of what I do in with my midfielders, but if you consider mid-pricers in the midfield then you must monitor White.
* Leaves a green vest sized hole which isn’t a SC friendly position, so not relevant.
Jared Polec – Port Adelaide: When a club goes hard for a player you have to play attention and the Power went hard, so they rate him and likely see him in their 2014 plans. Couple that with the fact that he only played one game in 2013 (for a SC 32) then you are looking at another cheap midfielder option who will be 21 in 2014. Again, as with a couple of the above, he is essentially a mature aged rookie recruit for the Power and must be considered, especially if he plays.
* He wasn’t playing at the Lions, so no hole left.
Billy Longer – St Kilda: There is a huge McEvoy sized hole at the Saints and it will be filled by Tom Hickey and Longer. He is a top 10 draftee who turns 21 early next season, so he is probably too raw to be anywhere near an elite ruckman, but he has to be considered for your R3 spot. He played four games this season and averaged only 51, but he will be playing every week for the Saints and likely as their number 1 ruck. With the new interchange rotation cap, he will likely be asked to spend long periods of time out on the field, so he will score. If he gets even a small discount on his 2013 average you could well be looking at a guy priced in the mid-$200ks, who will play every week, as lead ruck. That spells pick me and, if you can fit him in structure wise and he does take McEvoy’s mantle, then you must consider him.
* He was stuck behind Berger and Berger will continue to dominate the ruck in Brisbane, so it does nothing in terms of finding a cheap replacement player at his old club.
Shane Savage – St Kilda: He was the centre-piece of what they received for their future captain, so they rate him highly: check. Dal Santo just left so there is a midfield hole: check. He averaged 80 when not the sub in 2013, but due to multiple green vests he will be priced at 63: check. He’s entering his fifth AFL season as a 23-year-old: check. Finally, he escapes a star studded midfield where he failed to get opportunities that he probably deserved due to the talent of his teammates and now has little competition around him: check. In his 53 AFL games he has already clocked up eight SC tons including: 118, 121, 121, 136 and 165. You have to consider him as a breakout candidate, with the only real issue being that most people hate picking midpricers in the midfield.
* Wasn’t playing much through the guts at Hawthorn, so his departure doesn’t help anyone too much from a SC sense.
Lance Franklin – Sydney: I wrote about him earlier in the season comparing his situation to Travis Cloke and I’m just going to copy and paste most of that here: “SC is a game of numbers, so you have to ignore your personal displeasure as to how he has played this year. I’m going to make a comparison to Travis Cloke because I think that they are in a very similar situation, one year apart. Both are key forwards, in good sides, who had a year-long contract dispute that has clearly been a hindrance on their performances. In the three seasons around his contract year (two years before and one year after), Cloke averaged 94.6. In the year that he was distracted he averaged 81.2. That represents a 14% scoring dip. In the three seasons prior to 2013, Franklin has averaged 111.2. This year, only 90.5, which is a 19% dip in his scoring. Following a contract extension, Cloke has rebounded to have his second highest averaging season, at 94.7, just above the three year average. If Franklin follows that progression, then he averages over 110 in 2014. The parallels are significant, heck they were even born five weeks apart. He may have annoyed you all season, but at the Swans he is basically a must have. I should also mention that he misses three to six games a season, so be prepared for that.” Since he is now at the SCG he gets to play on a small ground. In his games at the SCG in 2010-12 he has shot 4.4, 6.6 and 4.3, so he is averaging 9 scoring shots per game and this will now be his home ground. He averaged 108 in those three games and that was against an elite key defender (and defense in general) each time. He will get plenty of lesser opposition up their next season. Finally, Clarkson admitted that they structured the Hawks 2013 forward line around not being so Buddy centric and this won’t be the case in Sydney. I expect 2014 to be his best SC season ever, which means he averages in excess of 115 and he costs you 90. Get him.
* His departure helps McEvoy and means Roughy won’t be able to play up the ground as much as I wrote under McEvoy.
Xavier Ellis – West Coast: If he stays fit and makes their starting 21 then Ellis must be considered. He is a 26-year-old coming off a two game season where he averaged only 21.5 and was vested both times. His 13 games in three years in a huge red flag, but if he gets through the preseason and looks to make the Eagles side then he must be considered for your midfield bench.
* Wasn’t playing at the Hawks, so leaves no hole.
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