Team Reveal – Father Dougal

Written by Father Dougal on March 19 2018

A very important part of a team reveal is actually having a team to reveal. And, um, I’ve been really busy see, math and stats, and um stuff. Yeah, stuff. So I don’t have a team ready. I have read a lot, and thought a lot, and pondered who I might like and such but there’s this lack of an actual team. But, I did promise a team reveal, and I’m already late on that, so…..time to put a team together.

Let’s see, where to start……probably best to follow the rules of cow-quisition; at least the ones I have already let slip out. Hmm…. Rule Number Four: “Cow availability determines your structure; not the reverse. Select all the good cows, and none of the dodgy cows”

Right! What cows have enough job security to be worth taking.

Rucks first….none.

Defenders: looks like five: Finlayson, Doedee, Murray, Naughton, and Coffield. The last two are more expensive than I prefer, but good job security and we have to play with the cows the gods have given us.

Midfield: Looks like seven: Holman, Barry, Kelly, Banfield, Clark, Brodie, Brayshaw. Seven is one too many; I’m not going to go with just four non-cows in the midfield. I’m not so into Clark, or more that I am impressed by Brodie and Brayshaw and want them. And again, expensive, but need cows.

Forwards, looks like…one….? Fritsch, yes, looks good, does the ONE forward cow!

Ok, calmer now. One cow is just a bit light. So, looking at close to good enough options, it looks like Garlett has a shred of job security thanks to an injury to last year’s dodgy Carlton cow Jarrod Pickett. That’s two, which is enough if there really are no other options. More looking and I’m feeling ok about Giles-Langdon. Not great, but good enough. A lot better than I did about a lot of cows last season. That makes three, which is as many as I think are worth taking a risk on in the forward line.

That means $1,908,100 spent on 14 cows. Fourteen isn’t bad. I would have liked more, but that’s not how it worked out.

So, $8,091,900 left for 16 players. Let’s see. Rucks next.

Gawn: If you don’t know why, please go back and read the entire site, then come back.

Lots of other rucks I like; Nank, NicNat (Yes really, both of them) tempted by Lycett into Ryder, or just Ryder, but I’m gonna go with Kreuzer. He may be hurt but he’ll do well when not hurt. One thing I learned last season was to take risks on injury and not performance. The big blue will play well and if he gets hurt I can trade into anyone I want to. Although I do like my ruck cover. A lot. I hate not having ruck cover.

So, who’s this year’s ruck cover…..?

My, my, the American Pie looks like it. (Vaguely sorry for that joke. Until I started writing this stuff I had no idea how hard it is to resist the obvious joke.) His history is interesting. Only 20 matches. The Pies need him as a target up front like Father Jack needs drink. Meaning a lot. He’s priced to average 55.4 and I bet he can average a good five points over that. Do I think he will suddenly lift his game by a whole lot? Well, Nank the Tank had played only 11 matches before last season, and he showed us. Of course Cox won’t be rucking too much, but still, I expect him to improve enough to be serviceable as a R3/F7. As for his monster score in the JLT, I do think it matters; it shows that his ceiling is a lot higher than we thought. Even in a JLT match, against a rookie defender, you don’t score like that without some real talent. He passed the eye test. He’ll play unless he completely stuffs it up, and even then I bet he’ll be back as soon as he looks ready again. Anyways, I’m going to take him and put him at F5.

Now with a Fwd/Ruck at F5, I need a loophole swingman at R3. Not a lot of options. Tigers have the first match of the week rounds one and two, so sod Balta, The Pies have the first match of the week rounds three and four, so sod Lynch, who would have been fine aside from that, plus Cox backup. The other cheap options are not very good loopholes. But English at $134,700 isn’t that much more expensive than the others, and has great, late matches rounds 1-4. and darn good after that. First time they play match number one is R6, and if I have not had someone turn into an involuntary loophole by round six, I will be very happy indeed!

Let’s see, next would be perma-captain. I wrote at length about why no Danger for me but to sum up, owning him is too risky. We’re told he might play round one, and I don’t believe that for a second. I’m so sure he won’t play, not only am I not starting with him, but I’ll pay a penalty if he does. Not kicking Bishop Brennan up the arse; I know how that goes, but something harsh….Ok, for every 20 points Danger scores round one, I’ll spend a week as part of the Brayden Maynard fan club. I was going to say 10 points, but there’s not enough beer in the world to get me through the worst case for that.

Without Danger, Mitchell and Dusty……and…..Zorko. Magnificent bye, and very solid players. If anything, I think he might do better as the best Lion midfielder now that Rockliff has left. Fyfe is life, and far too good a value to pass up. One spot left, which I will leave and see how much cash and what sort of bye trouble I am in later.

So, I have $4,028,700 left for eight players; a bit over $500k each.

Which defenders do I feel best about? Laird and Hibberd for sure. One defense spot left.

Which forwards do I feel best about? Heeney, Walters, and McLean.

Now at $1,447,900 for 3 spots one each remaining line. Only $482,633 each. Hmm. As it happens, there is a guy I have been looking at all pre-season, who will help a lot with that โ€“ Jackson Trengove, who only costs $344,900, and who I think could be one of the many Dogs who score 85-95 this season.

Now at $1,103,000 for two. Well, so far my defense is exactly the same as Huttabito’s, so lets go all the way. I like Savage for the same reasons he does, that nice high scoring rebound defender role and a strong finish. Funny how all my non-cow defenders play that role.

With $623,300 left I can get any mid but Kelly and Gary! Now it gets hard, because I want to take The Bont, but that is mostly because I brought him in mid-season last year and he of course didn’t do so well, so now I want to double down on him and prove I was right. Which is a bad reason to bring him in. I expect him to play forward too much to really up his game. Bad risk. He might, but not worth the risk. The two players I am torn between are Oliver and Cripps. Taking Oliver would leave me with $10,500. That’s good in that I’ll have made use of all my cash, but not so good if I need to deal with an unforeseen issue. The reason I want Oliver is that he is the only (non-rookie) in the AFL who’s upside is uber-elite. Maybe Kelly, if anyone else it would be him, but he didn’t do what Oliver did. The only player I know of who’s numbers are comparable to Oliver’s is Gary Ablett. Gary’s average his first two season were better, but not by a lot. Oliver is by far the most likely player to shoot up to a 130 range average this season. I hate that he has a niggle before Round 1…..okay, he is in for Zorko, and I’m taking Cripps too. That leaves me with $82,100 left over, which is fine with me. Much over $100,000 would worry me, but under $100k if I don’t want to make any upgrades is fine.

If Oliver is hurt with notice I bring back Zorko. If he is a late out, hmm, Duncan it looks like, or the Motts Maneuver. Best as I can tell right now he’ll start.

I don’t think I need to explain why I want Cripps. But to sum up, value for points, probable rise in price, maybe a big one. Bye Friendly.

Oh Feck! The byes…..

R12 = 5 keepers out
R13 = 3 keepers out
R14 = 6 keepers out

I don’t like that at all…..the only R14 guy I might swap out is Savage. Anyone I like enough to make a change with him in R13…..Jeremy Howe. Hurm. I like Howe. Fewer games missed with a higher historical average….I think I should have had him to start with! The cash difference is trivial.

R12 = 5 keepers out
R13 = 4 keepers out
R14 = 5 keepers out

Oh, I didn’t count Cox as a keeper, but I should have?

R12 = 5 keepers out
R13 = 5 keepers out
R14 = 5 keepers out

That’s unexpectedly balanced. Won’t kill me when I add Danger back in either.

Ok, do I see anything that looks or feels wrong…..No.

$44,200 left. Definitely not too much in the bank. I like every non-cow, and all but two cows. The one player I feel is going to hose me is Garlett, but he is better than any other forward cow, and if he ends up a loophole I will cope. I am really counting on the Blues needing him for long enough that I can get some cash from him. I just keep remembering Pickett last season….

I have two players that are technically mid-pricers; Cox and Trengove. I’d have to spend a lot more than I have to improve on Trengove, and I don’t want to replace him anyways. I think he will fit right in and average at least 80, and could easily average 90. I doubt much more than 95. Since he is priced at 62, I am not worried about his downside. Cox is my backup ruck and I am ok spending the extra on him. As it worked out, I don’t have anywhere to use the cash selling him would bring, and there is no more forward cows I want anyway. I don’t want to upgrade Fyfe or Cripps.

I think I’m good. I may waffle on Oliver v Zorko. I might even break down and swap out Cripps for him, with a change to Howe to pay for it. I’m suddenly thinking I need to do the numbers on speed of price rises to help with that decision. Still, while changes may be forced, or some news might prompt a change, I am very happy with this team.ย That said, I would love to hear what you all think, whatever it is!

The League code for “Pound the Priest” isย 724588.ย  Get in while the getting’s good!

 

 

 

 

Update, after R1, the real starting team:

So of course there were changes thanks to the cow outs and ins. I had six total changes, all but one of which were promoted directly or indirectly by the cow changes. The only one, maybe two that wasn’t was from injury concerns .

Coffield not named, replaced with L. Murphy. Not really happy about this one, but he is really cheap and if he ends up a loophole I will deal.

Oliver has injury concerns, so right over to J. Kelly.

Brodie not named, but no rookie to replace him with. Dang. Rookies in other lines? Don’t want any forwards, but there’s this R. Bonner guy who just has his JS increased. I’d thought about him before, but he didn’t really fit. But now that I need to move funds into the mids since I have no other mid rookies, he looks good. J. Howe goes out and R. Bonner comes in. That lets me bring in Coniglio or Liberatore. Also thought about Parker, but better bye from Coniglio and Liberatore and all are underpriced. I debate bringing in Parker for Fyfe but don’t want to risk it, which may have been an emotional decision more than a logical one. I debate Liberatore v Coniglio also at length, and finally decide to go with Coniglio

I feel like I am not over mid-priced. I also have a big lack of keeper defenders. I fix this by swapping Trengove for Sicily. I really want his DPP and think he is likely to be a keeper or close to. He is playing forward but gives me flexibility I expect to want later.

At the same time, I’m waffling on Kreuzer, because of his injury, and because I like both NicNat and Nankervis, and I feel like they are both better value. I fear a NicNat’s injury too much to bring him in, even with backup, and with the Tigers great early schedule I end up bringing in Nank the Tank.

After the first two matches:

I dodged a bullet with Kreuzer! Oh my. While I have ruck cover I would not want to have to use it so soon!

I have almost enough to bring in Zorko for Coniglio, but would have to get rid of English, who might end up playing. If he does I get no loophole. I think about this a lot. I do a twitter poll. I debate upgrading Sicily but decide I want him for the DPP and like having the spare cash. Coniglio is also a underpriced even if I am not sure how much, and I end up deciding to keep him hoping he will be a real keeper or at least so close I can wait to upgrade him until late. I end up with both English and Coniglio and $150k left, which I expect to find a use for soon enough. I can’t see any upgrades that I want to make. I finally decide that all of my cows keeping their jobs and staying unhurt is the failure case, I can deal with that. Plus, L. Murphy didn’t impress, so could easily lose his job. I picture moving English to Fwd and adding a real loophole, and then failure is English and Murphy and my loophole all having no jobs, which would be bad. I had planned to VC Titch with Gawn as his backup, but now I have to Captain Titch and VC Gawn, and hope nothing goes wrong. I am sad that I didn’t know for sure English was playing in time to put him forward not take Murphy and move line around to end up with a cow I liked better than Murphy, but too late. I debate Sicily to the back, English to the fwds and Naughton out for another cow or a loophole, but decide again to hold fast and not go mad at the last minute.

After R1:

I had luck. The moves I was forced into by cow changes all worked out, which is definitely lucky. Dodged both Kreuzer and Liberatore. Mostly had the right rookies on the pitch. Titch worked out with no backup needed. Cox did the low end up what I expected and now that English has done so well I wonder if English can take the Ruck cover role. The timing of games worked against me for team structure when finding out about him. If I knew he was starting sooner I would have certainly ended up with him forward and probably not started with Cox. But, he could have also put up a 30 and been dropped, so maybe that’s hindsight.

In the Future: Gonna do stuff. No further updates here; I wanted to have a record of what I really did and why since transparency.

R1 score was 2397.

I messed up the screenshot, in that T. Kelly was on the bench and A. Brayshaw was on the pitch. The other players are correct.

 

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27 thoughts on “Team Reveal – Father Dougal”

  1. Don’t forget to put the E on Gawn (can do 4 E’s in total now; maybe this was also the case last season but I didn’t notice?)

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        1. I’ll post my final team here once it is actually final. I just read Oliver may not play week one so I am likely to bring back Zorko for him, for example.

          I think you can look at teams see their changes from past weeks. I’m not planning to write about my team every week; I hadn’t thought that would be very interesting.

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      1. I like the Cox pick! I sleep better at night when I have coverage so have been toying with this idea too. I wish Stradica was still r/f as he plays more Sunday’s.

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  2. Not many are running with ruck cover this year. Could be interesting to see what happens if Gawn cops a two week niggle early on!

    Iโ€™m guessing that the thumbs down are for Trengove and Cox?

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  3. Thank you FD.

    I love your approach to this game,All numbers and thumbs.
    Father Duncan would be proud.

    Cows are the only way to glory.

    I’m thinking of starting 16 or more and keeping $ for a rainy day.

    One must think ahead.

    R3 price change…………

    Early B/E and JS will key.

    I want $ in the bank to afford the best rookies. Best Midpricer and even maybe even Danger.

    “IF” Trengrove and Cox have a B/E of -100 at round 2 they “may” make it into my side. ๐Ÿ™‚

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  4. Father Dougal, O Brother, Where Art Thou? First time I see a different team structure and I am smiling. You make sense. The only selection I am not sold on is Trengove.
    Do you really think you’ll get $150k by R12?
    I like your planning, just resist culling Oliver for Zorko. The later will be tagged heavily this year so you better wait and get him as an upgrade if he scores well despite.
    This year most teams are so similar that match ups will be soooo boring .

    I have myself decided to use a different team structure with 2+4+2+4 and two mid pricers per line (except the rucks). I have learned from last year that 2 or 3 rookies will be good cows but the other ordinary and many premiums will drop in price for misfiring. I actually didnt pick Danger because I want to see the Abblett effect. Scott could stick him up front that would be the difference between 110 and regular captain 130+ and maintaining his 700K price… I will post my team before Friday. watching on injury update of 2 players.

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    1. Jeannot

      May want to check your team thursday?

      I cant wait for the first team selections .

      The green lights come on and its …..Cow time

      The mad scramble to fit them all in!

      Fingers crossed a few of them hang around to make some $$$

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    2. Danger will score whether he plays FF or the midfield (just look at the hawthorn game where he was on one leg as a sample)

      People are seriously over estimated the negative effect that Ablett with have on him. Alot of people on this site have already mention where Swan, Beams, Pendlebury (the pies midfield anyway) all averaged 110+. And lets say Ablett does push danger foward and they rotate at FF that will result in more goals for Danger (his capable of 50 goal season)

      But after all, he does have to start round 1 !!!

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  5. Father you are a genius! I had 300k spare and i couldn’t for the life of me find where to spend it. Cox comes in to my team and i now feel like my structure is complete.

    Maybe we are both mad, but I’m loving it.

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    1. Yes, but I probably won’t. If there is enough carnage when teams land I might consider it if I really need to.

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