The most intelligent words ever written on this website were by Father Dougal. Paraphrasing, he said that our team structure should be completely governed by the available rookies.
When I look at the most popular team structures, there appears to be a heavy reliance on rookies that may not even play. As happened last year, rookies are a rare commodity in 2020 and this will make for some Supercoach squad reshuffles when team lists drop for Round 1.
Therefore I am currently rocking a structure that is risky but hopefully doesn’t rely on dodgy rookies who may be dropped in Round 2!
Defence
This is probably all pretty self-explanatory although I am not 100% sold on Houston yet. If his second Marsh Series match fails the eye test, he will likely become Roberton to free up more cash.
Either way, I’ll need to find another rookie as it sounds like Williams will miss Round 1 with a hamstring complaint.
Midfield
I am not overly happy with my midfield rookies at the moment so hopefully the final round of the Marsh Series throws up some bargains! My ‘quick fix’ is to switch a premium defender to Roberton and use the cash to grab another expensive rookie like Noah Anderson.
The only premium choice that may raise a few eyebrows here is Seb Ross. Clearly he isn’t an established uber-premium but I liked his run of scores after Ratten took over in 2019. The guy knows how to find the ball but I may still chicken out and switch him to a Dangerfield or Neale.
Ruck
Yes, this is risky and could screw up my entire season if Naismith is injured early in the season. That said, Naismith appears to be the Swans’ main ruckman (as Sinclair is better as a forward) so he should be able to manage a 80 point average, a bargain at his price.
Hopefully the gulf between Naismith’s price and Gawn’s can be covered with a single downgrade-upgrade during the byes.
Or, heaven forbid, big Maxy may be in for one of those niggly injury-prone seasons…
Forward
The forward line is doing my head in this season. For some strange reason, I believe the hype around Petracca’s midfield role is real. This comment may age very poorly if he doesn’t play predominantly midfield against the Hawks on Friday night! If I lose faith in Petracca, I might have to sell my soul and bring the Chad into my forward line.
Again I have expensive forward rookies but these are more place fillers than anything and I will likely downgrade Sparrow and Poholke if any decent forward rookies appear.
Anyway, tear this team apart in the comments. It shouldn’t be too hard!
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Sparrow and Starc not named for M2, so they could almost become Roberton & Robertson (Bris), with Hill moving forward.
I commented a while ago that Trac’s DE wasn’t great, but his numbers actually stack up (based on AFL.com article a couple of weeks ago). He was #11 for total points, so doesn’t need a massive jump to move into top 6-8. He also ticks the most boxes of the mid-prices – age, games played, high-draft pick, conformed role change by coach, ceiling.
One thing I’m considering in the Dees have a tough opening 6 rounds. Eagles, Giants and Richmond, plus Saints at Marvel where Dees have a shocking record.
I can see Trac being a top forward, but starting slowly, so he may be a better upgrade target once role is 100% certain. He probably goes sub-100 against the Eagles and Giants in rounds 1-2, so I can see a lot of people trading him out, like Dunkley last year. If you pick him, I think you have to be willing to hold him through some early low scores.
I think if Petracca plays 60-70% mid he’ll score well enough to start him. Hopefully we’ll know more tonight, but I didn’t like him being named at half-forward!
Re: the rookies, I took the screen shots just before Marsh squads dropped so the rooks will need updating
Petracca has always rated very highly in the AFL Player Ratings system which I think shows that he is usually very effective with his disposals and is involved in a lot of scoring chains.
If he makes the move to the midfield I can’t see how his average doesn’t spike.
He was basically a forward pocket last season and averaged 80+ and was their 3rd best player after the bye in mostly losses, I’m SUPER confident on Petracca assuming he himself, his coach & his teammates aren’t lying about the midfield time.
LOVE the Luke Ryan pick, scared shitless of the Naismith one, one thing for me personally if I was taking the risk of Naismith I’d start both Wit & Martin.
Is Starc named though. In my app he wasn’t, but on AFL.com.au he was named on the bench.
No, he’s not named on afl.com.au either. Shame, I thought he was good in limited game time in the first round.
I’ll probably downgrade a defensive premo to Roberton and use the cash to adjust rookies like Starcevich and North.
Gutsy side Thommo, Naismith is a big call, what sort of point’s difference do you think there will be between him and Maxy? Speaking of Williams (Zac variety) last I heard he had Achilles tendonitis, however he’s not appearing in GWS’s injury list, do we have an expected return date for him?
I’m very nervous about Naismith! I’m hoping for 85-90ppg and a price of $450k when I upgrade, you’d thinking Maxy will be $600-$650k at some stage.
I’ve only heard that Williams is likely to miss Rd1 but the Giants are very cagey with injuries.
Love the Luke Ryan selection, will be watching very closely this week.
If he goes well again, will be very tempted to slot into D2.
I like the new Freo game plan, hopefully more backline kick-to-kick!
Personally think having Grenwood, Petracca and D Smith in the same side, is super high risk… but with that also comes high reward.
I don’t trust anyone from Gold Coast, apart from the rookies. History shows they don’t score that great after the first quarter of the season. Petracca and D.Smith I will be watching like a hawk this weekend, goodluck!!
Damn straight this is a high risk forward line! The only reason I’m entertaining it is the lack of decent forward premiums. Martin is a slow starter, Walters is ok but not sure what Freo are planning with Cerra and Brayshaw. I don’t mind Parish but again, will he play much mid-time and is he good enough?
This season the forward line could decide the overall top sides.
I think those 3 are the lower risk of the high risk mid-price forwards if that makes sense, I like Petracca to push past 100ave & Greenwod could go close just worried about Bowes, Brodie, Swallow & the younger ones strangely a lot of mouth to feed there.
Naismith, 55% tog. If he does that again makes if extremely interesting.
60-70% tog and playing #1 ruck again for a score of 80-90 would make me less nervous!
I really like that defence Thommo, D4 for Docherty feels right.
Ross is a great Fantasy player, not sure about Supercoach though. Maybe find the dough for Tim Kelly? And I agree with you about the forward line – that’s where it’s going to be won and lost this year.
You’re not wrong, I have enough spare cash to make him Dangerfield. After the Jack Steele debacle last year, I will probably play it safe in the midfield.
Danger has been available for $150k less at a point in each of the last 3 seasons. As such he HAS to be a fallen premium target imho.
I’d agree with you except that Selwood is not fit and Kelly is gone so I thought he might start fast.
I like this team and agree with what you say about rookies determine your structure.
I too have Naismith. You speak about the risk, but I think the reward outweighs it. If you have 2 dud mid pricers you can turn them into a late rookie and underpriced premium. Think, Stack and Dunkley last year.
You have gone deeper in defence than me, I have gone a 6 deep forward line. Again, this is determined by rookie strength.
In the past, I always seems to go one short, as there is always a Bailey Scott type that I rate too highly from an impressive pre season.
I only see (so far) Rowell & Pickett are the only two I see worthy. This could change this week as I’ll be watching Serong, McInnerley & Green very closely. Don’t think Valente is upto it.
Good luck!
Thanks mate, I will adjust rookies, probably by losing a defensive premo because these rookies won’t play. It will be an expensive rookie season I think!
Out of curiosity, as a Hawks man what do you think of Ceglar?
I’m really tempted to start him at F3, but Petracca currently occupies that spot. If I need to do a reshuffle when Rd1 teams are announced, hopefully I can find the cash to fit him in at F4!
I’ve considered it. Cegs is an awkward looking dude but he will score ok. He does tend to need the odd day off and I’m a bit worried Clarko will swing Big Boy to the ruck at times.
The thing turning me off Naismith, is I think that even with best case scenario, it’s still a two-week trade/double-downgrade to bring Gawn in.
If Naismith averages 90 and plays every game til his bye, he’ll be 429k. Last year Gawn never dropped below 604k, so that’s a 175k difference.
This scenario relies on Naismith peaking in the same round (~R11-12) as Gawn hitting his season low, plus having an extra 175k from a rookie, when conventional wisdom suggests that 150k per rookie is around the mark. Naismith also has to play every game.
I’m pretty sure Gawn will drop in price early, but unless you (the Royal ‘you’, not Thommo specifically) have a strategy to bring him in around R5-6, it’s going to be tough.
By the time Naismith makes enough cash, it could be round 10, and Gawn is over his knee injury and flying, prices at 650k+.
I get your point but if he averages 90 I’ll be super happy and will upgrade very late.
Naismith…. don’t do it. He is a spud.
He’s not a spud, he’s just made of glass.
Naismith is a bit expensive for a Bench player, Thommo just forgot to name his R2.
Like it Thommo. Few picks raise my eyebrows, mainly Ross who has finished strong the last few years but doesn’t back it up.
I’ve had Naismith versions and i must admit, love the rest of the side it produces.
Would you consider having Ceglar as a backup plan in the forwards? Not sure how comfortable I feel having no Naismith safety net. You just never know what Clarko has in store for Ceglar/Big Boy.
It’s definitely in mind. Like you said, I’m in love with how the test of the team looks!
Really like this team.
If using Naismith as a stepping stone, I think you have to be certain Xerri and/or Cameron are named Rd1 just for security.
Think I’d rather give Steele another go than Ross, but who knows? Am now staying away from PTA and STK keepers as we will still need to field 22 for their Rd11 bye! A shame because I now can’t start Marshall or Lycett at R2 and would have been confident with either.
Have vandenBerg ahead of Sparrow. Would be happy with both if they’re named Rd1 but was disappointed to see the latter only named as an emergency this week. Perhaps he’s done enough already?!
Currently have vandenberg as well – brings a lot of pressure, which Goodwin loves. They drafted Pickett and Sparrow (their first pick in 2018) almost purely on the forward pressure they bring.
I have already kicked Ross out for Dangerfield. You can keep Steele!
You are right, if Xerri and Cameron are both named I’ll start Naismith but if they don’t I’ll probably change my structure.
Agreed on Vandenberg, he’s a better option.
If Xerri or Cameron (or both) aren’t named, it’s gonna become a fraught experience, but I’ll still probably ride the lightning. Naismith was ready to go late last year but with the Swans missing the finals they were prepared to be uber conservative with his recovery.
If he lasts the distance he’s going to be a $450-520k player for half that price.
Your options if Naismith goes down early, without a (season over) double premium downgrade, are pretty much a single premo downgrade and Jacobs, Patton, English or Sinclair.
If he can make it to say round 5 or 6 then things get a lot more interesting. There’s some very unstable or skinny depth ruck lineups that could easily see a bargain appear on a single injury or selection change (Darcy Fort, Jordan Sweet, Keiran Strachan etc) and certainly Lycett will be down a lot after that period too.
Having said all that, the cash it frees up is the difference between actually having a solid team that will start round 1 and waiting for a rookie miracle, or only running premos to M3 or D2 or similar.
Gawn only playing half a game tonight really doesn’t answer anything. I’d be just as nervous about that as Naismith, tbh.
I’ll need this pep talk again before Rd 1 as Gawn looked great in that first half.
Well you could go Naismith and Whitfield, or else Gawn and a Rookie…
Maybe Crocker?
It is always always ALWAYS worth considering the alternatives.
Naismith and Whitfield would probably be 10 points better, and similar or better cash generation.
Either is going to mean 1 pretty big upgrade trade, but there *are* more best 6 forwards to choose from than there are best 2 ruckmen to choose from, so that makes Whitfield easier to replace than Gawn.
Certainly, based on injury history, Gawn/Crocker looks safer than Whitfield/Naismith though, and Whitfield is only 10 points better than the next option yet Gawn is 15 points better.
I look at Gawn’s season starts versus season finishes though, and he’s historically so much better AFTER the byes than he is before the byes, with the exception of 2018, that even without the preseason issues he normally drops a fair bit of price early. Check, because slower starts and midseason slumps are a real thing with Gawny.
2019, 118 early, 100 in the middle, 135 end
2018 132 early, 110, 122
2017 – injury round 3 – inconclusive
2016 117, 101, 122
From that he really makes a perfect upgrade target.
But, also, seriously, ask yourself how would you consider a forward lineup of F1 Greenwood, F2 Petracca looks after tonight?
Are you going for overall or leagues?…..not a Guns and Rookies team…..good luck
More leagues for me.
Try to avoid on field FWD rookies 9/10 are duds scoring below 60, Budarick may be the 1/10 that isn’t. I’d swap pokehole and sparrow for giles-Langdon and Budarick and put Tyler Brown on mid bench the swing isn’t so important at the start and you wont have so much to panic about when teams drop.
If Naismith stays healthy he’s a great option as R2 but you shouldn’t use the extra cash on midpriced potential keepers you should use it on a genuine gun like Neale
Poholke and Sparrow are just expensive placeholders. They’ll be switched for better rookies or another premo forward. It will be a tough year given Rowell an Anderson played limited minutes tonight.
To win SC you need balls of steel. I couldn’t pick this team but love the reasoning behind it all. Best of luck buddy
Thanks mate, I’ll need a lot of luck!
“When I look at the most popular team structures, there appears to be a heavy reliance on rookies that may not even play.”
Truer words never spoken.
Gonna be a lot of panicked last minute rebuilds of teams this year.
Considered Langdon instead of Ross? Look at his last 4 games last year…. and then the change of club.
I’d probably take Viney ahead of Langdon purely for inside versus outside role. I might take Langdon in Fantasy though, he did well tonight.
Viney certainly looked interesting. bit more freedom and a lot less responsibility could do him good.