Every season we search for the one or two premium players who will jump in average sharply and set our teams aside from the competition. Picking the same premium midfielders as everyone else can be handy for winning your Supercoach Leagues but to win the overall prize you need an edge on the competition.
So this season I thought I would look at those players just below the elite level who look primed for a break-out or are under-priced due to injury. These players will join the select group of players: The +10 Club.
Today it’s time to pump up the tyres of a mid-forward and enter him into Club:
Name: Isaac Heeney
Team: Sydney
Position: MID-FWD
Price: $529,200
Bye round: 13
2018 average: 97.5ppg
2018 games played: 21
Why will Heeney improve by 10 points?
The simple answer is: Because he has done it before.
Just not for an entire season!
In 2018 Isaac Heeney averaged 107ppg leading up to Sydney’s Round 14 bye with 9 scores over 100 points from 13 matches. In that time he had a low score of 78 points and a high of 134 points.
Following the bye he suffered a concussion in Round 15 against the Tigers and recorded only 18 points. From there he managed only 2 more tonnes from 8 matches and averaged 82ppg.
The concussion may have effected Heeney, but more likely his scoring suffered simply because he spent more time in the forward line. Until Round 13 Heeney had averaged 22 disposals and 5.46 marks per game (and kicked 12 goals) compared with 19 disposals and 3.42 marks per game after (and 7 goals). In addition, the Swans only won 4 from their final nine games which always makes scoring SC points harder.
Having a good half-season is not the only reason that Isaac Heeney will improve sharply. As a high draft pick entering his fifth season, Heeney is a prime break-out candidate. He is currently completing his first full preseason and he has the elite endurance required to be a full-time midfielder. With Hannebery leaving and Menzel joining the Swans, Heeney should be freed up from the forward line and finally become a fully fledged midfielder. Realistically the Swans need his speed and skill in a midfield that clearly lacked pace in 2018.
Why won’t he improve?
Like Luke Beveridge at the Bulldogs, John Longmire is becoming more of a Supercoach buzzkill than Ross Lyon at his worst. Maybe we can’t see the Grand Plan to which Horse is working, but he seems ridiculously slow to react to the deterioration in his gun players. Moving Hannebery on was a positive so hopefully Horse makes the other smart move to push Parker forward more often and bring young guns like Heeney and Mills in to the midfield permanently.
However, we can’t just blame Horse. Heeney was often his own worst enemy as he regularly went missing for entire quarters. It was not uncommon for him to score 80 points in the second half but barely trouble Champion Data with a statistic in the first. It is hard for a player to score those all-important big tonnes when he scores so irregularly. That was evidenced by Heeney not scoring over 140 points once in all of 2018. Can Heeney really hold a 105 point average when he never pumps out a monster score?
Prediction
105ppg!
I am bullish that Heeney will spend even more time in the midfield in 2019 and push his Supercoach average towards that 10ppg improvement. If he were only a midfielder you wouldn’t go near him, but as a forward he is elite and a lock.
Loading ...Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom
Great write up Thommo..Locked!
Great write up!
I have good vibes about him this year, too. Heeney should be a lock at F2/3 for everyone! Let’s not tell the other 62% of coaches 😉
The return of Reid, Sinclair playing up forward and a fit Buddy should see no need for Heeney to play as a forward target in 2019.
A couple of stats
2018 average with Buddy: 104.8 (not including the concussion affected game)
2018 average without: 88.3
Heeney also only had over 25 disposals 4 times last season showing he still gets plenty of points without getting much of the pill. Imagine what he could do if he increases his disposal count by 3-4 a game!
Lock.
Good comment but to be honest, I think Heeney will spend more time in the mids no matter what. Buddy and Reid are guaranteed to miss games again this season but Horse will probably push Parker forward more and give Blakey a few games rather than play Heeney forward as often as late in 2018.
But we are talking about Horse, so that could be wishful thinking!
Great stuff Thommo. Locked in at F2.
Here’s another piece for you Thommo 🙂
Steele sharpens attacking focus
http://m.saints.com.au/news/2019-02-06/steele-sharpens-attacking-focus.mobileapp
You two and Steele……get a room, people! 😉
When he pumps out 130 in Round 1 you are going to wish you were on the Man of Steele, Schwarzy!
You blokes have so many Jacks even your media team is getting confused, isn’t that a photo of Jack Steven with Fish?
Lol. The photo I saw was of Jackety Jack giving it to Cripps
Great link and makes it sound like Hannebery won’t push Steele out of the mids. Like Ben I got a picture of Steven with Fisher though!
Get the App and you’ll get the picture!!
Might be worth getting on Josh Bruce for Rd1 v the Suns too! Could win Wk1 when he pumps out 180+
Easy lock at F2 alongside Danger.
Severely under-priced for 2019 due to the injury affected 18 which when excluded lifts his avg to 101.45 from 20 for 2018 and if you exclude it from his scoring between 2017 and 2018 he averages 99.61 from 38.
Before that 18, Heeney had averaged 104.3 from his prior 30 games with 4/30 below 80 and 17/30 100+.
Only averaged approximately 21 disposals over the past 2 season which indicates a large room for improvement if he receives more midfield minutes and he could easily push a 105-110 avg.
You’ve done it again Thommo, excellent write-up as per usual.
Heeney has been a lock for a while now imo. Great durability, can score well without needing much of the pill, and still has room to improve. Fingers crossed they don’t play him too much in the mid though, it’d be nice if he kept his DPP status for a while longer!
First full pre-season. Locked.
Oh wow that’s not even something I had considered! If I had him locked before I’ve now thrown away the key!
Can’t split Heeney or Smith for my team atm
Both!
If I had the $s I’d have Danger and Heeney and Menegola, but I don’t. Having the same bye round is concerning, .. so I’m only looking at one of those 3 at present, no secret who that will be … as we progress toward R1 I may have 2 to start the season ,