For the next inductee into the +10 club I’m going a bit off-reservation with Jack Steele (who Allsaints also mentioned in his fantastic St Kilda review). Schwarzwalder is sick of me talking about Steele so he must be a decent selection……**Must be onto something! – Schwarz** 😉
Name: Jack Steele
Team: St Kilda
Position: MID
Price: $512,600
Bye round: 12
2018 average: 94.4ppg
2018 games played: 21
Why will Steele improve by 10 points?
Perhaps the worst thing that ever happened to Jack Steele’s career was getting drafted by the Giants. They were so stacked with midfielders that Steele was either wearing the green vest (remember the vest?) or playing in the forward line and he didn’t get a chance to show his potential in 2015 or 2016 . When he was traded to the Saints for the 2017 season he immediately showed glimpses of his junior footy form when he was an absolute ball magnet with great defensive skills. Steele averaged 22 disposals and 8 tackles per match in 2017 and 23 disposals and 7 tackles per match in 2018, with a career high Supercoach score of 94ppg in 2018.
As an average that is respectable but not nearly enough for Steele to claim a midfield slot… unless you look at the second half of 2018. After the bye, Steele was re-created as a tagger and things just seemed to click. In a rare occurrence, tagging actually helped Steele become an elite Supercoach player. In those 9 weeks, he averaged 27 disposals a game while doing a decent job of shutting down his opponents like Tom Mitchell, Callan Ward and Clayton Oliver. Surprisingly his kicking improved to the elite category in 2018 despite the added defensive responsibility.
To sweeten the deal further, Steele elevated his performance again for the final month of the season, averaging 127ppg from 29 disposals per match in that time. What’s not to love?
Alan Richardson hasn’t had much coaching success yet but surely he recognizes that, entering his fifth season, Jack Steele is primed to explode!
Why won’t he improve?
He plays for St Kilda!
I know that seems like a cheap shot, but the Saints lacked system in 2018 and that makes it hard for a player to break-out. At any other side I believe Seb Ross would be an uber-elite player by now but it hard to use the ball efficiently in a team that is losing consistently. Will Jack Steele also get caught in the good, but not great, category?
In addition, Richardson has experimented with his list a lot and I worry he will continue to try different players in the midfield, especially with the arrival of Hannebery. You would think Jack Steele’s brilliant finish to 2018 would mean he starts in an inside midfield/tagging role in 2019, but Richo wouldn’t be the first coach to disrupt a player’s form with a nonsensical change in role (yes, I’m looking at you, Mr Magnets).
Prediction
105-110ppg!
Jack Steele has always had a Supercoach-friendly game style, as seen by his 151 point average during the Under-18 championships, and he is ready to bring that form to the AFL. The fear with such a selection is that he may plateau at a 95-100ppg average and require an upgrade, but in a year with a lot of high-priced guns we need to find a value option somewhere.
If I run short on cash, Steele is likely to start for Thommo’s Tribe ahead of some more established guns.
Loading ...Leave a comment / Scroll to bottom
I love these types of picks! However, I think there are proven premos around a similar price bracket.. Sloane, Zorko, Merrett, Crouch to name a few. If I had to pick a Saints mid it would be Ross! Good luck for the season 🙂
Thanks Obrigado, I had Merrett just ahead of Steele but that ankle injury is a slight concern. Zorko and Sloane are clear unders but score erratically due to tags. Ross is a dreamteam player who hasn’t consistently produced the goods in SC.
I reckon Steele could prove a better Supercoach pick and almost untaggable.
I hope for your sake he’s the pick of the bunch 🙂
Can’t be worse than starting with Billings last season!
Haha true that! I kept Billings and Hibberd all last year, cost me staying in the top 20!!
I love the Steele breakout pick, there’s obviously risk but there’s also a lot of risk with the other underpriced premos. The tag for Zorko, Sloane. Merrett the same to a lesser degree but also the addition of Shiel and improvement to other young mids could result in a more even spread in the bombers mids and Crouch always has the injury risk. I personally think Ross is one of the most overrated players in the game, barely puts on any pressure and is always running past looking for a cheap handball even when he’s in a bad position. He has potential if he changes his attitude but I’m not sure if that will happen under Richo. Steele on the other hand loves the defensive stuff and wins his own ball, all the signs of a SC gun inside mid.
Couldn’t have put it better myself. Great stuff Thommo.
Hannebery said only yesterday how impressed he is.
I also get the feeling from a subtle but consistent undertone I’ve noticed since Christmas in STK’s chat, that there will be a lot more structure in our play this year. Bringing in a couple of experienced and successful line coaches in Ratten and Lade (and to a lesser degree Allen) that the list are a lot more aware and understanding of specific ‘roles’ and that’s breeding confidence within the group.
Will make sure I find room BEFORE the first bounce. Expecting 105+ min. from STEELE.
Thanks again Thommo.
There can’t be less structure at the Saints! Ratts is a great addition.
Since I wrote this article I have become more confident in this break-out. He’s pretty much locked.
Great work Thommo, just what we need , a player that racks up points while playing a defensive role!! I guess your worse case scenario almost makes it worth the risk.Post bye he improved his average by 14 pts, that’s impressive. His pre bye floor is the only worry , getting into the 60’s, but post bye that’s impressive.Finished the year off at 549k gotta be some value there .
Harmes and Dunkley also both produced eye-catching outputs playing similar defensive-type roles post-byes in 2018. Viney’s return may push Harmes back to half-forward but surely Mr Magnets has to stick with Dunkley in the guts? With McLean damaging his shoulder, the switch with Dunkley coincided with a positive upturn in the Dogs competitiveness and fortunes. Yes, Libba’s return may threaten, but Dunks is a beast and is ‘turning heads’ on the track right now.
Definite change in role Joestar so trust the post bye scores. If he plays a mid role in JLT, lock him in!
Great work Thommo and loving this series of write-ups.
I hope you are promoting your articles on social media.
If he’s not, you will be! 😉
Cheers TDA. I haven’t been promoting then as much as usual because I haven’t been posting them. I wrote articles a while ago and leave them for Schwarzy to launch when he needs an article. Sometimes I discover they’ve been launched when I see your tweet!
Thanks for your twitter work!
Spot on All Saints as I just gave it a plug on Twitter then.
It is all about promoting the site and it’s great hard working writers.
Yep. I’ve noticed how much excellent promoting you do of the site. I really should get on board. I’ve also really enjoyed your RookieWatch profiles on twitter. Keep it up mate. Great stuff!
Yeah they were a huge hit the RookieWatch profiles.
I got in a small touch of strive over them and had to apolise to FantasyFreako and retweet them with the #2019AFLProspectus to promote it and show that was where most of the stats came from.
It was really not good enough just saying that I was getting the stats from the Prospectus especially with copyright.
That said, numerous people told me they would buy it on the back of the stats.
Yeah right. Is it worth getting then? I feel I have enough stats to sink a hard-drive as it is!!
I saw the Freako pull you up on Twitter TDA. Slightly amusing! That’s partly why I posted my photo of every edition ever printed.
Thanks Thommo I knew you were giving me a chop out by posting of all of your editions of the Prospectus and he liked your snapshot of them.
Well worth buying for only $40 as it does not just cover all of the rookies but also premiums and other SC relevant players. It also has good team previews and more. You can never have enough stats All Saints.
Our resident writer Thommo_sct showed a snapshot of the last 10-15 editions, but funnily someone picked him up that one of them was out of order.
Well written Thommo, as I’m sure you’re aware I’m also all in on Steele, got him locked and loaded at M5 and I don’t see him moving unless I have a random 100k just sitting around with nowhere else to use it.
I do think he can average 105, hes a tackle nut but not for me. Doesn’t fit in my structure.
Then your structure sucks, Nateo. #BacktotheDrawingBoard
😛 😛
Hope I’m not stepping on anyone’s toes with ‘secret tech'(all saints, looking at you). But thoughts on Gresham at f4? Only has to ave95-100 for f6. More mid time and a genuine gun.
Considering running 4premiums in the mid (macrae, cripps, Oliver and Neale) with the abundance of potential rookies THIS year it could work.
But running Gresham at f4 theorising that if he does break out this year he should break out big, and be my fifth mid but in the fwd line.
Will let you know how he goes next week in the intra-club game. Will be keeping a close eye on a few of them.
I’m starting to think quite similarly re: MIDs.
Currently have Cripps, Oliver, Yeo, Dusty and Steele. They’re the only ones I don’t think will drop much in price of those I envisage finishing Top8.
Similar FWD too, but currently have Worpedo at F4, with Roberton at D4 and the ‘Foundation’ RUC combo. I have nearly $200k ITB and have no idea what to do with it! Classic case of overthinking it and now trust very few to deliver 🙂
As always I like Your style All Saints . Currently Have a similar team with Macrae ( instead of Oliver) and Conoglio (instead of Steele). G+G (Sweating on it, just doing it for what if) Otherwise Worpel at F4 and Roberton at D4 are a steal. Hope they are nice PODs before byes.
Steele? You have to trust the Saints. They have let me down way too many time. The only risk I could take from them is a proven gun: Hanners at M6 if he lights up JLT. Too cheap not to be tempted but that will stuff up my structure…
Love your work Jeannot.
Macrae may well do it again but for me a bit like Lloooyyyd, I watched their games last year and I just don’t see it.
I bought Macrae in Rd3 last year based purely on stats with no idea … and he smashed it! But again, that game in the wet against the Crows in Adelaide, even as an owner I just couldn’t fathom how he got the score he did. I might even have had the V on him that week 🙂
I didn’t have Lloyd last year and made a point of watching Swans games to see what all the fuss was about. I saw nothing. So why would I upgrade to an invisible man?!
Steele is an absolute gun. He’s just had a year of consolidation (which is a significant trend when picking breakouts) and unlike Hanners, Crouch, Fyfe and the like, will play 22 games. Ratts and Lade love him. He did more in the pre- pre-season than anyone asked of him and is primed. As I said in my St Kilda preview. Watch. This. Space.
I had Cogs pencilled in my top 5 when I started picking my premos during last year’s finals. He may well take Oliver’s spot if Clarry doesn’t look ready. I reckon both of them and Cripps will be 115-120++ this year. Just need to be sure he’s not gonna keep disappearing for a qtr.
Kelly is another one. One of my fave players to watch, but GWS have difficult early fixtures and he only seems to score massive against lesser sides. He can wait.
Calling myself ‘allsaints’ on here has a certain irony to it. This will be the first time I’ve EVER started a Saint in Rd1. I might start three this year ;). Fills me with both trepidation and excitement at what’s to come.
Good luck Jeannot and I look forward to sharing good banter with you this year.
Cool look forward to the findings, pun intended.
Just a heads up, have you checked Worpal’s finals games last year…I’m staying well away, but up to you.
Can somebody share some codes for the SCT Group and some decent leagues?
Join my league thread. Lol page 7.
I think this article has almost convinced me to select him! Will watch very closesly
Do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it.
No pressure!
Great write Thommo. Steele has a very supercoach friendly game but This is a Billings for me. I had him last year as he was cheap at $500k , then by the time his bye came around round 14 he lost me 100k so I gave up on him.. and lost a trade. He did the same thing in 2017, few scores over 100+ in the last few games that got me excited and expecting a break out season…. Never again. For the same price Sloane , Zerret, and Zorko (Dunkley to a lesser) are score beasts and look more appealling. They will be tagged some games but not always and be captain loopholes. Would Hanners in the Saints means the Mids roles may change again?? As you said it Thommo, Richo is a tinkerer who likes to experiment….
If he keeps the same form as towards the last few games of last season, he will be a nice POD. Just not for me. (Then again I could be cheeky and If his price goes down considerably, I will get him for the back end of the season??)
How many past winners have selected players who breakout into uncharted supercoach territory. I feel that the winners mostly pick players who have done it before and for circumstantial reasons have dropped off and are good value. I guess i just try and stick to this ideal especially in the midfield, good write up but its a no from me.